The departure of Igor Strelkov, Alexander Boroday and Valeriy Bolotov is not the end of Novorossia, but quite likely the beginning of a new plan, in which local leaders from Donbass will play the main role, and not holders of Russian passports.
About this "Navigator" said Russian political analyst Pavel Nikanorov.
According to him, now there can be two options for the development of events - either Kiev will soon make peace with representatives of Donbass, or else the rebels will launch a real counter-offensive. "The military defeat of the DPR-LPR for Putin is excluded," said Nikanorov.
“The first option: the West with Putin inclined Poroshenko to conclude peace, because further sacrifices cannot be tolerated at all (probably, Western leaders feel an increase in public dissatisfaction with sanctions and their alarming consequences, and the ongoing bloody conflict is almost in the center of Europe). If Poroshenko managed to end the war in the near future, the West would have waited, but, apparently, Kiev would not be able to quickly, the time allowed by the curators for a blitzkrieg Poroshenko missed, and the world is not ready to wait even an extra two weeks: there is already enough firewood. And, perhaps, Poroshenko surrendered, but with one condition: to remove odious "rastiarennye" figures with Russian citizenship from the leadership of the DNR-LNR, so that his consent to the settlement agreement does not look like a complete political defeat.
(In the case of Bolotov, it was not his Russian citizenship that played the role — he was just local, but the fact that he had already become a symbol of resistance, and Kiev also did not want to see him at the negotiating table. Therefore, it was necessary to replace him with a less “untwisted figure”).
Summarizing the first version: Putin should avoid military defeat of the militia, the West can no longer tolerate the continuation of the conflict even a few weeks, and now fears the collapse of Ukraine itself, Poroshenko has exhausted all resources, and the country is on the verge of collapse. Therefore, a consensus has emerged - it is time to sit at the negotiating table, and after that - the struggle for Ukraine will go purely on a political plane.
The second is that Moscow has an understanding that you can safely “remove” your militia from the command posts in order to get rid of reproaches from the West for direct interference in the internal affairs of Ukraine and to act further only in line with soft power.
Moscow is confident that, despite Kiev’s vigorous reports and the plight of the militia on the fronts, it is able to hold urban agglomerations long enough to wear out Kiev (financially and reputationally) before it reaches its final military success, ”Nikanor explained.
“In addition, by removing Strelkov and Beard from leadership positions, and thus distancing himself from Novorossia, Putin calms public opinion inside Russia, which requires the earliest possible deployment of troops to help“ our militia. ” Now it is not “ours”, and we need to help it exclusively by diplomatic means, ”the analyst added.
“I understand one thing for sure that Putin will not allow Poroshenko’s military victory. And how he will not allow this - we will find out by the fact and not immediately, ”the expert concluded.