8 August "Russian newspaper" it was reported that the central banks of Russia and China agreed on a draft agreement on swaps in national currencies. The possible volume of the program and the timing of its launch at the Central Bank of Russia is not yet discussed.
It is only known that the agreement will give direct access to the yuan to Russian companies doing business with Chinese partners. In turn, the Chinese will be able to pay with Russian businessmen in rubles.
Oleg Ivanov, Vice President of the Association of Regional Banks of Russia, told Rossiyskaya Gazeta that the agreement was being prepared for several months. “The issuers of the national currency - the central banks of the two countries - are ready to carry out transactions for the exchange of rubles for yuan and vice versa. This allows Russian counterparties who wish to make transactions in yuan, to make wider use of Chinese currency. Customers of Russian banks will be able to receive in their banks yuan directly from the Bank of Russia. The latter will be able to freely change rubles to the yuan. This can be an almost inexhaustible source of RMB for Russian business, ”the expert said.
The publication notes that in the structure of foreign trade settlements of Russia and China today more than 75% belongs to the dollar, which creates a source of income for the American economy. If the new currency swap instrument is in demand among Russian and Chinese companies, it will indirectly increase the trade turnover between the two countries.
Yuan in general assertively “invades” the world financial system, cramping the dollar and the euro, and even in Europe. As recalled "Lenta.ru"China has previously concluded settlement agreements in national currencies with the countries of South America and the APR. And in 2013, China signed an agreement on direct currency trading with the UK and Singapore. Almost simultaneously, Beijing and Brussels approved 350 swap transactions worth RMB billion. Result: last year, the yuan ranked the euro in the list of the most traded world currencies.
He told about the benefits of giving up the dollar in settlements with China, which Russia can get "Free Press" former deputy head of the Accounts Chamber of the Russian Federation, economist Yuri Boldyrev.
“For any pair of states claiming sovereignty, getting rid of the third currency in mutual settlements is an absolute and unconditional benefit. And the fact that in Russia this issue was not resolved 10-15 years ago is on the conscience of our government. But better late than never. ”
The economist points out that this “vital” question concerns trade with China and India, and in the future with Brazil, Argentina and those countries from which Russia plans to buy food.
As for the United States, for them such a “growing power trend” will be painful.
The economist answered the journalist’s question about the volume of trade:
“The question is not the volume of trade. We are talking about changing the entire philosophy of trade and economic relations. The question should not be: if you do not have dollars, you can not buy anything. This question should be excluded from the world view of both sides - both Russia and China. ”
Another expert, head of Finance and Economics at the Institute of Contemporary Development Nikita Maslennikov, told SP that the agreement between Russia and China would not be too painful for the United States.
Maslennikov cited data from the Bank for International Settlements, according to which the dollar today is in the world of 87% in the structure of calculations. And for some commodity markets it will not be easy to get away from dollar settlements (the markets for liquid hydrocarbons, weapons, aerospace products, high technologies).
“In the future, the role of other currencies will indeed increase in international settlements, among which - on the horizon of five to seven years - the yuan may appear. However, the dollar will occupy the niche of the currency with which the technological rent is charged. Roughly speaking, if I have super-advanced software or hardware, except for dollars, I will not sell it to you. And such a situation, I repeat, is unlikely to change in the foreseeable future ... "
But the Chinese opinion.
Chinese experts believe that sanctions against Russia accelerate the rapprochement between Beijing and Moscow. Reported on this August 13 China Radio International.
The article notes that Western sanctions are supposedly aimed at suggesting that Russia have to pay for actions towards Ukraine, but in fact the American "goal is to influence the speed of Russia's development and prevent its rise."
Meanwhile, Russia's energy is “the best weapon"Against sanctions, experts say.
Among the measures to counter sanctions, Chinese scientists include not only the establishment of a development bank of the BRICS countries, but also the cessation of the use of dollar settlements by Russian industrial companies.
In addition, Russia plans to buy parts for electronic products from China. According to Chinese experts, in this way Russia “initiates the beginning of a new chapter of economic and strategic cooperation.” And the "circles of sanctions" in the end only "accelerate the rapprochement between Russia and China."
“In addition, a hard rebuff to the West is not Putin’s personal style, but a universal popular position. After Crimea joined in Russia, Putin’s support in the country increased, which is the best evidence. Historically, Russia had to constantly expand its possessions in order to resolve internal conflicts and strengthen the unity of the nation, and now it’s even more necessary to make the West an image of an enemy in order to soften dissatisfied moods in the country and suppress separatist sentiments ”.
So, it becomes clear that the Chinese and Russians should be united as never before in the matter of circumventing the dollar, for the White House will do everything possible to prevent the growth of state payments in national currencies. A hindrance to the world domination of the dollar will be both Russia and China. Accordingly, both Russia and China will have one “enemy image”. Actually, this is not an image, but a real enemy.
Allies do not choose - just as they do not choose neighbors.
Observed and commented on Oleg Chuvakin
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- especially for topwar.ru