Information on the cost of the program of import substitution
The Izvestia publication, citing its sources in the government, claims that all the work on replacing imports of Ukrainian products will cost Russia about 50 billion rubles. The program has been drafted, its main points have been defined and the Ministry of Finance is currently reviewing the amendments to the federal budget for 2014-16 proposed by the Ministry of Industry and Trade for the current program. Source "Izvestia" in the Ministry of Finance called the planned expenditure on import substitution is quite real.
The topic of abandoning Ukrainian-made components is not the loudest and most discussed, but one of the most important issues of recent times. The sharp deterioration in relations with Ukraine, which occurred after the change of power in Kiev, led to a number of unpleasant consequences. So, in the spring of this year, new Kiev authorities began to threaten the cessation of cooperation in various fields, including military-technical. In June, these threats became a reality: the new president of Ukraine, Petro Poroshenko, ordered all defense enterprises to completely stop collaborating with their Russian colleagues.
In the spring, the Russian Ministry of Industry and Trade studied the risks associated with the termination of cooperation with Ukraine. The result of this was a plan of action, as a result of which the production of all the necessary components will go to Russian enterprises, and the import of Ukrainian products will cease as unnecessary. The implementation of the program of import substitution will take no more than a few years. For example, in May, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said that the implementation of all these plans would take about 2,5-3 years. At the same time, the head of the military department noted that the program being developed will make it possible for defense enterprises to provide not only independence, but also additional added value.
Izvestia published some details of the technical and technological part of the import substitution program. The publication claims that a full list of products that will be produced in Russia in the near future has already been prepared and agreed upon by the relevant ministries. These are more than 3 of thousands of types of various components, which until recently were supplied by 160 by Ukrainian enterprises. Imported products were used in the construction of more than 200 types of weapons and military equipment.
An interesting fact is that the import substitution program, it seems, provides for a large proportion of the participation of domestic enterprises. According to "Izvestia", they will not only produce new products for themselves, but also take on some of the related work. So, most of the work under the program will be implemented at the expense of the enterprises involved in them. Probably, a number of defense enterprises will be interested in such participation in the program, since self-financing of the development of new products can be a good investment in the future. In addition, we should not forget about the share of state participation. Judging by the published data, the state will take the most active part in the development of the necessary industries.
A source of "Izvestia" in the government said that for a number of positions, defense enterprises will need government support. Relevant activities should be carried out within the framework of the state program for the development of industry and the state defense order.
Unfortunately, the full official information about the program of import substitution has not yet been published. There are only some statements by officials that do not reveal all the details of the program, as well as publications citing unnamed sources in various departments. However, the available information suggests that the import substitution program has already been developed and is currently “going on instances”. Thus, the implementation of the developed plans may begin in the next few months, by the end of the year.
The main task of the developed program of import substitution is to ensure the independence of the domestic defense industry from components produced by a no longer reliable partner - Ukraine. It is assumed that over the next few years, Russian enterprises will master the production of all the necessary components, from various engines to radio-electronic equipment.
Nevertheless, there is reason to believe that even with the successful completion of the import substitution program, the Russian military and industry will have to change existing plans. The current state armaments program has been developed taking into account cooperation with foreign suppliers, including Ukrainian ones. The termination of the supply of their products, even if such products will soon be made in Russia, will affect the pace of construction of new equipment for the armed forces. Thus, it will be necessary to revise some plans for re-equipment and change the timing of their implementation.
As a result, current events will have both negative and positive consequences for the domestic defense industry and the armed forces. The lack of supply of imported components requires you to spend time on the development of the production of similar products, which will affect the timing of all planned projects. At the same time, as a result of the import substitution program, domestic enterprises will master the production of a large number of important products, including those that were previously either fully purchased abroad or produced in Russia in insufficient quantities. The implementation of existing plans will not be cheap and fast, but the planned program will fully justify itself and all the costs of mastering the production of the necessary components.
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