Conflict with the United States will help Russia get rid of the legacy of Gorbachev
The INF Treaty, in violation of which we are accused, is unprofitable for RussiaWashington sent a letter to Moscow expressing concern that Russia was allegedly violating the Intermediate Nuclear Weapons Treaty (RIAC) from the 1987 of the year.
"Russia has violated the obligations under the INF Treaty not to test, not to produce and not to deploy ground-based cruise missiles (RNLs) with a range from 500 to 5500 kilometers," stated in a message sent yesterday.
Are these concerns groundless? Experts say that Russia has long been thinking about withdrawing from a treaty signed by Gorbachev and Reagan. And the further, the more doubt arises whether to continue to comply with this document.
Rumor has it that in the near future, the KRNB, which have a combat use range from 2000 to 2500 kilometers, can enter the army, and this will entail Russia's withdrawal from the treaty. Such a move would neutralize the threat of deploying a US missile defense system in Europe, analysts say.
If you look at the problem from this side, it turns out that the Americans themselves by their actions reanimated the question about the INF. But not only in their case. This class weapons dozens of countries freely develop, including Russia's neighbors, and the Russian Federation and the United States have undertaken to not even look in his direction. But if the United States can transfer the center of gravity to high-precision weapons and use it to protect against new threats, even excluding the nuclear triad, then Russia has nothing of the kind and it is in the most disadvantageous position.
The head of the presidential administration, Sergei Ivanov, notes that Russia is still abiding by the agreement on the ban on the INF Treaty, but this cannot continue indefinitely.
“I am still convinced that the INF Treaty is a detrimental agreement for us,” agreed Army General Yury Baluevsky. “When it comes out of it, Russia will have more advantages than disadvantages.”
“This contract is of an indefinite nature, but the possibility of overcoming it exists if one of the parties provides convincing evidence of the need for a withdrawal,” continues Baluyevsky. “Today they are there: many countries are developing and improving medium-range missiles, and Russia, having fulfilled the INF Treaty, has lost many of these weapons systems.”
Moreover, the United States themselves have already violated the INF Treaty, indicates Baluyevsky. On the basis of the second and third stages of the intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) Minuteman-2, they created target missiles for testing air defense systems. However, these targets, in fact, are medium-range missiles of a new type, and nothing prevents to supply them with appropriate warheads, if necessary.
The other side of the problem is American Drones. Ruslan Pukhov, director of the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, believes that the named Predator and Reaper class vehicles fully fall under the treaty definition of medium-range cruise missiles.
“The withdrawal of the Russian Federation from the INF Treaty is not an end in itself,” the expert is sure. - Such actions should answer questions of practical expediency. Does Russia now have modern medium and short-range missiles? Can we equip our army with them? These questions must be answered by experts already. ”
In fact, what can we oppose to the other and the third - the American missile defense system in Europe, to their own target missiles and mentioned drones?
These are missiles of the P-500 type, which may soon be equipped with Iskander-M missile systems, says analyst Yury Fedorov from the Center for Political Studies, citing data from open sources. According to the head of the presidential administration, Sergei Ivanov, they are capable of overcoming all existing and prospective missile defense systems. Fedorov admits that the P-500 is a “modified missile of the Soviet complex RK-55“ Relief ”(CSSX-4 Slingshot), its range of action is up to 3000 kilometers”.
“In 2012, the final tests passed another complex - Iskander-K, which is a further development of the Iskander-M complex. It launches even more accurate, already cruise, rockets, ”adds Fedorov.
Consequently, Russia is ready to leave the treaty financially, it’s up to a political decision. But not everyone approves of such a course of events. Alexei Arbatov, head of the Center for International Security at the IMEMO RAN, is sure: Russia's withdrawal from the INF Treaty can lead to negative consequences. “Before cutting off, everything must be measured, and not seven, but seventy-seven times,” says Arbatov. History "It shows the futility of attempts by any powers to assert themselves by the destruction of international treaties," he warns.
On the other hand, sometimes circumstances force it to do just that. Last year, Vladimir Putin hinted to the United States and NATO about the possibility of Russia withdrawing from the said treaty. But since then, international relations have not become easier: on the contrary, they have become more complicated.
However, nothing has been decided yet and nothing has been proven. In response to the American accusations, the Foreign Ministry of the Russian Federation stated that the United States remains in propaganda mites of the Cold War. The agency reminded: “As in previous years, the United States continues to say without proof that Russia allegedly violates its obligations under certain international treaties.”
On the other hand, a military diplomatic source in Moscow in 2010 year stated that Russia and the United States planned to consider the issue of the possible termination of a bilateral INF Treaty.
True, all this happened against the background of the statements made back in 2009, that Russia is ready to discuss the general mode of refusal of the INF. “We are ready for a constructive dialogue on finding ways to solve these problems both with the European Union and with all other partners in order to agree on a universal regime for abandoning this type of missile,” Lavrov stressed then.
“Now between Russia and the United States equality in all types of the nuclear triad; consequently, there is a stable nuclear balance, ”retired Major General Vladimir Dvorkin, Chief Researcher at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO) of the Russian Academy of Sciences, noted. - Concerning the charges: this is another minor US attack. On this occasion, for several months there is a discussion. Whether Russia violated something on missiles or not - it still needs to be proven for a long time and scrupulously ”.
American accusations against Russia for violating the INF Treaty, say experts polled by Kommersant, are primarily of a psychological threat, and their goal is to increase pressure on the Russian Federation along with the sanctions imposed against it. Pressing goes in all directions, and this can speak about a certain degree of confusion: no matter what they try, nothing helps.
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