US and EU sanctions against Russia: who benefits them?
Yes, now the United States and Europe continue to press hard on Russia because of the events in the south-east of Ukraine, they are trying to recoup the annexation of the Crimea, they are trying to demonize the Russian leadership because of the incident with the downed Boeing, trying once again to make our country " evil empire "... But at the same time, the West does not understand the full extent of the actions committed. In the short term, the imposed sanctions may significantly complicate the position of Russia, but as for the long-term perspective, the European Union and the United States may be in a much more difficult position.
First of all, this concerns the energy sector, where dependence on Russia is greatest. The White House’s loud statements that oil prices may collapse to $ 50 per barrel and replaced by shale gas supply seem simply untenable. How can this be achieved? Who can compensate for the full supply of oil to the world market? Or will the United States decide to increase oil production on its own territory in order to cover not only its own needs, but also the needs of the European Union?
If the United States relies on Saudi Arabia’s assistance in this matter, then it seems that the Barack Obama administration has a very bad memory. After all, not so long ago, the White House administration managed to worsen relations with the ruling house of al-Saud on the Syrian issue in such a way that the Saudis simply can not go on about Washington. In addition, Iran, from which the economic sanctions have not yet been fully lifted, probably will not play by the rules of the United States. Then the most realistic scenario for events will be the global increase in oil prices within 150-200 $ per barrel. This, in turn, will affect the economic interests of China, India and the countries of Southeast Asia, which have been constantly increasing the volume of oil consumption for quite a long time.
In this situation, Russia will simply have to increase oil supplies to China and the countries of Southeast Asia. In addition, this should push our country to further develop relations with Iran, which is considering the possibility of supplying its oil to foreign markets through Russia. This should push the Russian leadership to speed up the process of creating an alternative oil exchange, which, along with Iranian oil, would also sell Russian oil, with mandatory withdrawal from the system of dollar settlements.
In addition, it is curious that, following the results of a fairly cold winter, the United States increased purchases of coal in Russia for the needs of its own fuel and energy complex. A quite reasonable question arises: does the administration of the White House give itself an account that after the introduction of new sanctions against Russia, it itself cuts the branch on which it sits? After all, Russia doesn’t cost anything to reduce or abandon these supplies at all by redirecting this flow to China
No less interesting events can occur in the gas market. And here the United States will not be able to oppose Russia. The United States and the European Union simply will not be able to cover their needs with either supplies of shale gas or the development of new deposits. This is especially true of the EU countries, which not only cannot develop deposits on their territory, which can lead to mass protests of the population of these countries, due to the threat of a real environmental catastrophe due to the existing methods of shale gas production, but they will not find other alternatives to Russia suppliers.
The construction of a trans-adriatic gas pipeline bypassing Russia, for the beginning of which the leaders in Brussels are fighting so well, will most likely remain in words, because the European Union has neither the means nor the time for this, since the next autumn-winter period is not far off . In addition, the new gas pipeline project is likely to be comprehended by the fate of the Nabucco project, which was widely advertised, and a considerable amount of money was invested in its construction, and ultimately it safely “sank into oblivion” ... So, if sectoral sanctions affect the supply of natural gas gas, then this winter, with a high degree of probability, we will witness how Europe will bear not only economic losses in the industrial sector, but also how people will slowly freeze, remembering their leadership with a kind word.
In addition, both the White House and Brussels should be well aware that the alleged sanctions threaten the participation of American and European companies in large-scale energy projects for the development of shelf deposits in Russia. In the event of an unfavorable development of events, our country may raise the question of curtailing cooperation in the framework of these projects and the possibility of nationalizing the financial resources invested in them by US and European companies.
Possible sanctions against Russia in the financial sector will become even more double-edged weapons. Yes, there is a real threat to Russia that it is difficult to borrow money from foreign markets, but at the same time there is a real chance to completely abandon payments in the dollar system and speed up the transition to settlements with other major players, such as China, India and others in national currencies.
In addition, it is necessary to speed up the process of withdrawing funds from the Fed’s securities and other assets in the West, while simultaneously pursuing a coordinated policy in this matter with such a major holder of US debt obligations like China.
At the same time, it is not worth paying full attention to the “wailing” of the oligarchs, who continue to advocate that Russia should remain part of the global financial system, but in fact they are more worried about the funds that they themselves have accumulated during the period of “dashing 90's” and other illegal ways. After all, the president has repeatedly said about the need to return the capital withdrawn from Russia back. If “Cypriot story”Taught the homegrown oligarchs nothing, then, accordingly, our state shouldn’t consider claims for their possible loss.
In addition, at the moment the president has a good chance to get rid of the “fifth column” in the government and his own administration in order to give a real chance to form a new team, whose main task should be work for the good of our country.
Thus, I would like to hope that common sense will prevail in the leadership of Western countries, especially those of the European Union, and there will be a rejection of both economic and political sanctions unfavorable to anyone. Otherwise, as they say, "who sows the wind, he will reap a storm ...."
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