Japanese Shinzo Abe decided to make friends with Korean Kim Jong-un
Throughout July, Shinzo Abe shows signs of attention to Kim Jong-un. No, do not think anything extra. These are several statements from which it becomes clear: The Land of the Rising Sun is moving closer to the state of Juche. He is getting closer that the US Department of State, with all his tolerance, screamed at Tokyo, demanding that his friendship with Pyongyang be coordinated with Washington. Apparently, in this case, the third is not superfluous.
In early July, Tokyo announced the lifting of sanctions against the DPRK, and they made it clear that this was only the beginning of a rapprochement.
“Japan will lift its sanctions against the DPRK. This is an action in response to an action. But this is just the start, ”said Prime Minister Abe.
Part of the sanctions is canceled because Tokyo discovered “progress” in investigating the fate of seventeen Japanese who were abducted in 1970 and 1980 in the North Korean special services (this is the version of Tokyo). Previously, the DPRK recognized only thirteen cases. But now in North Korea, a special committee has been created that has been given greater authority. The commencement of a committee investigation will serve as a signal to Japan to relax restrictions on remittances, allow citizens to travel, and the entry of North Korean ships to Japanese ports for humanitarian purposes.
The next step in bringing the two states closer is the steps of Tokyo and Pyongyang to create a direct link. The media also wrote about this in early July.
The direct line will be used to discuss urgent issues relating to the fate of the Japanese, abducted by North Korean special services.
There will be nothing tricky in this line: ordinary telephone and fax communications. While progress in these plans is not visible. In the Russian press on this subject did not appear News since July 5th. However, both the Japanese and Koreans do not like to rush.
Other facts point to convergence. In mid-July, the media reported on the statements of Shinzo Abe. The premier said that the launches of North Korean 13 missiles in July will not affect the negotiations between Tokyo and Pyongyang on Japanese citizens held in the DPRK.
Abe noted that “the launch of ballistic missiles is a violation of the UN Security Council resolutions,” but he said: “We intend to continue to demand that the investigation of the fate of Japanese citizens held in the DPRK should be pursued in accordance with the recently reached Japanese-North Korean agreements. Our current missile launch will not have any impact on our work to resolve this problem. ”
This installation clearly did not like the United States, which in the second half of July began to openly put pressure on Tokyo.
As reported by 21 July "Russian newspaper"After some silence, the United States determined its position on the breakthrough in relations between Tokyo and Pyongyang. Identified her States in a telephone conversation.
Secretary of State John Kerry, speaking with his Japanese counterpart, demanded that the Japanese Prime Minister not visit the DPRK and said that Japan should consult the United States in advance about all possible compromises with North Korea.
The conversation was held, it can be said, in raised voices.
“Hold your horses in relations with the DPRK and tell your premier that he would not think about going to Pyongyang. In addition, with all of our “breakthrough initiatives” with North Korea, consult us in advance, ”the White House’s message to the Japanese Secretary of State, RG correspondent Oleg Kiryan, jokingly conveys the White House’s position to the Japanese Foreign Minister Fumio Kishidy.
The diplomatic original of the conversation is: “If Premier Abe visits North Korea, this can lead to a weakening of the alliance between the United States, Japan and South Korea.” In addition, a warning followed from Kerry: “Japan’s sole initiatives are not appropriate. The United States and Japan are allies, and therefore we ask that all initiatives and intentions in negotiations with Pyongyang Tokyo be consulted in advance with us. ”
It is difficult to say whether Abe will "consult". Such humiliation may cost him a rating that has already moved below 50%.
What happens in Japan?
First, three weeks ago, the government of Shinzo Abe passed a resolution allowing the Japanese armed forces to operate in other countries. The main condition that Japan has set for itself: the need to protect "friendly countries".
The other day, Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida directly explained to Parliament that the threat to Japan would be ... the attack of enemies on the United States of America. In this case, Tokyo will defend Washington.
The Japanese people did not appreciate the unconstitutional hawk ideas of Abe; in Tokyo there was even a protest in the form of self-immolation.
Secondly, Tokyo has serious economic problems.
According to the results of the financial year 2013 / 2014, Japan recorded a record deficit in foreign trade - 13,75 trillion yen (134,3 billion dollars), reports RIA News".
Japan's foreign trade deficit in the first half of 2014 of the year amounted to a record 1979 trillion yen (7,6 billion dollars) from the 74,96 of the year for this period. The deficit in June was 822,24 billion yen (8,11 billion dollars). Japan’s trade deficit has been in the red zone for two years in a row.
To solve problems, enmity on the political front with China, Japan tries through friendship with Mongolia. Japan and Mongolia plan to conclude an agreement on the creation of a free trade zone, Gazeta.ru with reference to ITAR-TASS.
Shinzo Abe and President of Mongolia Tsakhiagiin Elbegdorzh participated in the talks between the two countries. “We plan to ratify the agreement in the parliaments of our countries by the beginning of next year,” said the Japanese prime minister. In his opinion, the free trade zone will help attract Japanese investment in Mongolian projects.
Thirdly, Japan is hampered by a sharp political crisis. 20 July ITAR-TASS reported that Shinzo Abe decided to replace more than half of the eighteen cabinet ministers. Changes are expected in September.
It is not reported whether foreign policy and defense ministers will keep their portfolios.
Fourthly, Japanese society is disturbed by absurd ideas about the Japanese “Crimean scenario” regarding the Kuril Islands. The source of these ideas is unclear. It may well be that a strange injection into the press of such “rumors” is being undertaken by “someone” to increase the fallen Abe rating.
Bloggers with might and main replicate some gossip about the upcoming seizure by Japan of the Kuril Islands "according to the Crimean scenario." Analysts are echoing bloggers from the West.
The latter believe that the “new interpretation” of the Japanese constitution is connected precisely with the “dangerous Crimean precedent”. So says, for example, Alexander Wolfson, whose words leads Pravda.ru.
“This message (Putin’s on the reunification of the Russian Federation and the Crimea) has already been learned in Asia. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe took unprecedented action to move away from the historically established limited defense forces towards a proposal to support regional allies against China. At the same time, Abe turned to nationalist rhetoric for stabbing the Chinese dragon. It is not difficult to imagine the emergence of regional hegemons inspired by nationalist ideas as a result. This is the breeding ground for the regional arms race, in which America will be pulled in with the help of existing treaty obligations, ”said Wolfson.
However, a sensible person cannot agree with such arguments.
“No, this has nothing to do with the Crimea,” Alexander Panov, a former ambassador to Japan and chief researcher at the Institute of the USA and Canada, told Pravde.ru. “Firstly, this process began long before the events in Crimea, and if we talk about nationalistic sentiments at all, they are growing throughout the world. This is a reaction to the globalization process. As for Japan, this is due to the fact that Japan is afraid of China. And yielding more and more to China, Japan is worried that it will be unable to withstand such serious pressure. ”
Thus, it is obvious that Tokyo (more precisely, Shinzo Abe) is confused about internal problems that coincided with external problems. The aggressive rhetoric of Abe leads to sad results: APR countries are waiting for war.
According to the latest Pew Research public opinion poll conducted in eleven countries, most of the population of the Asia-Pacific region are “very concerned” about the likelihood of a military conflict with China. This was announced by the portal. "Vesti.Ekonomika".
In the Philippines, the possibility of war with China concerns 93% of respondents, in Japan 85% of respondents, in Vietnam 84%, in South Korea 83%, in India 72%, in Malaysia 66%, in Bangladesh 55% Indonesia - 52%. As for China, there 62% of respondents are convinced that the conflict over disputed territories with neighboring countries could escalate into a war.
And it is clear that first of all we are talking about the regional confrontation between China and Japan, from which up to the Third World War there is one small step.
Observed and commented on Oleg Chuvakin
- especially for topwar.ru
- especially for topwar.ru
Information