Recently, the so-called Prime Minister of what remained of Ukraine, Arseniy Yatsenyuk decided once again to play in public. This time, the honored Maidan entertainer and potential nominee for the UkrOskar award for his great contribution to the Maidan cinema said that Ukraine is ready to finally reconsider its trade relations with Russia, completely abandoning the Russian market. After the “mkhatovskaya” pause, Yatsenyuk added that he “perfectly aware” of all the consequences of this kind of revision, but should look for new markets together with the whole of Ukraine, since the world did not converge on Russia. Like, we will lose 5 billions of dollars (Yatsenyuk counted that much), but somehow we survive - we will find new trade and economic partners.
No one argues that the wedge on Russia has not come together economically. You can trade with East Timor, Rwanda, Somalia, the Bounty Islands, and there - with the whole world to trade - not to overtrain ...
Here are just Yatsenyuk words about the loss of Ukraine in $ 5 billion cause particular bewilderment. Where did Yatsenyuk even take this figure? Or, the 5 sum of billions of gray-green pieces of paper does not give Ukrainian authorities peace of mind after Mrs. Nuland voiced it as the sum of assistance to the Ukrainian “democracy” in recent years.
The real losses of the Ukrainian budget from the extravagant decision of the junta to stop trading with Russia could be an order of magnitude greater. Last year (2013), Ukraine exported 15,1 billion dollars worth of goods to Russia. This is almost a quarter of total exports of Ukraine. In 2013, Russia became a country representing the main market for Ukrainian goods. Kiev can argue, saying that the main market for Ukraine is the EU. But the EU includes 28 states ... Yes, and export figures to the EU as a whole, frankly, do not totally surpass export figures to Russia.
Moreover, the curtailment of trade with Russia is not a one-sided move, as Yatsenyuk is trying to announce. Of course, for Russia, the loss of the Ukrainian market will lead to obvious negative consequences. But these losses, for all their seriousness, are not critical for Russia.
The fact is that for all the last months of mass political and economic madness in Ukraine, this state has slipped from 6-th place in the list of those countries with which Russia trades most successfully, on 12 place. This led to an increase in the rate of decline of the Ukrainian economy. Experts in the field of macroeconomics believe that by the end of the year the Ukrainian financial and economic system can go into a significant minus. By the most conservative estimates: about 6-7% of the fall in GDP. If we talk about the annual expression of the rate of economic decline, which is observed in Ukraine today, the neighboring state, while maintaining the present feverish economic policy and without multi-billion assistance from the IMF, can economically collapse on 10-12%. If Yatsenyuk thinks of finally cutting off the path for Ukrainian goods to the Russian market (and he surely thinks of it - the Maidan’s head does not give rest to his legs), then the economic decline can be aggravated even more significantly.
So in what case will the Ukrainian economy be “on the drum,” if it completely refuses (with the stroke of a pen of the main lunatics in the Square) from contacts with the Russian economy? The options here are probably two. Both cause considerable doubts. Consider them in more detail.
Option One: Yatsenyuk literally digs the ground, looking for new trade and economic partners. In Kiev, even believe that he has already begun to dig. For example, Ukrainian economic publications reported an increase in the export volume of Ukrainian goods for Somalia by more than 4000%. This Kiev announced with incredible pride, as well as a significant increase in trade with Panama. Well, Somalia and Panama are more than a worthy replacement for the Russian market ... The trade turnover with these countries even after the “surge” in Yatseniuk’s activity for Ukraine was about a third percent. It remains to find somewhere else 99,7%, to completely replace the Russian market ... A terrific figure, is not it ... That's just Mr. Yatsenyuk this ratio of goods turnover is not announced for "domestic consumption", so as not to expose yourself a complete idiot. But everything is secret, as you know ...
The search for new trade and economic partners for Ukraine Yatsenyuk needs to be dealt with given the fact that a number of airlines have not known the Ukrainian airspace at all as that within which their aircraft can be carried out. The search for new partners needs to be dealt with even after the Crimea said its word about joining Russia, and Kiev lost several sea trade ports at once. And also - in the presence of actually destroyed transport infrastructure of the southeast.
It turns out that Kiev has only one direction of trade - the West. And there, after the signing of the Association Agreement with the EU by Poroshenko, they are waiting - they will not wait for the day when their own goods could be launched into the Ukrainian market without any restrictions. And they clearly do not intend to switch to the consumption of exclusively Ukrainian products.
The United States literally thinks day and night what sanctions to impose against Russia, and here they come up with the ukrovlasts themselves who, for Ukraine, are tougher than any foreign sanctions ...
Option two: Yatsenyuk needs to continue to stand with an outstretched hand and ask the United States, the EU, the IMF and other instances for financial assistance. He asks. The prime credit beggar is something from the Russian nineties, when Russia was also “democratized” with all its might ...
Only here several questions immediately arise: how many tens of billions of dollars does Kiev need to somehow halt the decline of the economy, what it will give (and give exactly will have to - help from the fraternal West), and where are the guarantees that Poroshenko will not let the funds allocated to the new phase of the bloody operation in the Donbas?
In the United States, they are well aware that Poroshenko will let the money into the war, and therefore they are ready to give out “democratic assistance” in the form of guarantees and credits, which once again proves the primary interest in a big war in Ukraine, namely Washington. It’s just that under this shop the junta feeds its people with “patriotic” slogans that it’s time to stop trading with Russia. Something must be invented to justify bloody strife ...
What Yatsenyuk is going to compensate for the termination of economic relations of Ukraine with Russia?
- Alexei Volodin
- Photos used: