Nobody wanted to fight
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Pavel Klimkin said in an interview with CNN television on Thursday that he “does not expect a war with Russia.” Interview recording posted on the website of the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry. According to the minister, the leadership of Ukraine has a clear understanding of the ways to de-escalation.
“It’s not a shame to lose to such a powerful adversary as Russia. And when you lose to your own people, it is a disaster. ”
“First of all, I do not believe in the emergence of war directly with Russia, because, after all, Russia should be interested in a stable Ukraine,” said Klimkin. According to him, "at the moment, there is an intentional destabilization of the situation in Donetsk and Lugansk," and the Ukrainian side needs to effectively take control of the border. "
According to the Foreign Minister of Ukraine, Kiev "has a clear understanding of how to achieve a de-escalation of the situation, how to defuse it and how to solve political problems."
Moscow seemed to answer Klimkin in absentia. It is unprofitable for Russia to fight the fraternal people of Ukraine, Security Council Deputy Secretary Yevgeny Lukyanov said on Thursday at a meeting in Moscow with a delegation of non-governmental organizations and US funds.
He stressed that the priority is to achieve a peaceful solution, reports RIA "News". “We are not profitable war in Ukraine. These are our borders, our relationship, economic ties. This is a big problem for us, and we see no other solution besides the political one, ”said Lukyanov.
With his speech, Klimkin essentially fulfilled the instructions of the President of Ukraine, Petro Poroshenko, who had previously ordered the Foreign Ministry to respond to the alleged incidents of shelling from the territory of Russia. Recall, as a “proof” of the shelling, Ukrainian media cite a video of allegedly “Grada” from Gukovo shelling Ukrainian territory.
In addition, the State Border Service of Ukraine said that Russian armored vehicles on Wednesday violated the state border near Amvrosiyivka and fired on Ukrainian security forces. Also on Thursday, a representative of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, Andrey Lysenko, said that on Wednesday a Russian military plane shot down a Ukrainian attack aircraft Su-25.
Valery Chaly, the deputy head of the Poroshenko administration, confessed the day before that his patron was considering the possibility of breaking diplomatic relations with Russia: “The Ukrainian authorities are studying this possibility, in particular, the results of such a step,” he said, but immediately made a reservation: “There are other methods than the gap diplomatic relations ... We do not refuse the format of Normandy, where the president of Russia is in the negotiation process. ”
Since spring, Kiev has regularly accused Moscow of “occupying the Crimea” and “aggression” in the Donbas. As the newspaper VIEW, noted in the Ukrainian press, the old American term “hybrid war” is used, coined at a different time and for a completely different reason. The SBU, for example, has repeatedly declared the capture of Russian saboteurs.
Thus, under the heading "The exhibition opened in Kiev weapons“Russia supplies the terrorists” last weekend, the Kiev edition of “New Region” reported: “The peculiarity of the exhibition is that all armaments were supplied by the Russian Federation to help terrorists from Donetsk and Lugansk“ people's republics ”, the newspaper asserts. citing no evidence for a version of the Russian origin of the weapon.
"The gap of diplomatic relations is not far off"
At the end of June, the speaker of the Verkhovna Rada, the former acting head. President of Ukraine Alexander Turchinov made an unexpected confession. According to him, in early spring and until recently, Kiev seriously feared an invasion from the east. “Approximately on 10 once a month our special services reported that the time of the military attack from the Russian Federation was determined - it was usually in the morning in 3 – 4. And we sat in combat readiness at the command post ... And the remnants of the army were preparing for war with the eastern neighbor. But it didn’t happen, ”Turchinov told the New Time of the Country magazine.
“Russia declared war, the occupation of the Crimea began. The Russians chose a good time, ”said Turchinov. At the same time, the former de facto head of state did not explain why, in response, he did not declare a state of war if, according to him, Russia had already declared war.
In general, according to Kiev, the “casus belli” (the formal reason for declaring war) happened more than a dozen times, however, Kiev, however, not only did not declare war to the neighboring republic, but even diligently maintains diplomatic relations with it, The president of “aggression and occupation” of Ukraine regularly communicates by telephone with his Russian counterpart. Like the foreign ministers of the two countries.
Even the party members of Turchinov from the ruling coalition in the parliament are not ready to repeat his words that Ukraine is already at war with Russia. “I would not say that open military actions are being conducted. I would refrain from such an assessment, ”confessed the deputy of the Verkhovna Rada from the Batkivshchyna party, Dmitry Andrievsky, to the VIEW newspaper.
At the same time, the interlocutor believes that "Ukraine today has undergone aggression, and, unfortunately, Russia inspires and aggravates this aggression." According to Andrievsky, the statement of Speaker Turchinov "concerned those obviously unfriendly actions that Ukraine sees from the Russian side." “But it’s definitely not a matter of declaring war on Russia today, of course,” the Ukrainian parliamentarian reiterated.
“The point is that the Russian authorities support terrorist organizations formed on the territory of Ukraine,” continues Andrievsky. “I believe that an open, full-scale war can be avoided; everything must be done to prevent a full-scale war between Russia and Ukraine, since no one is interested in the war in Central Europe, and the Ukrainians are absolutely certain.”
Even more radical representatives of the ruling coalition, for example, from the nationalist party Svoboda, headed by Oleg Tyagnibok, evaded the direct question of why Kiev has not only not declared a state of war, but has not even severed diplomatic relations.
“We have long been urging the authorities to break off diplomatic relations with Russia. Personally, I suggested that the authorities break off diplomatic relations with Russia in February. He spoke from the rostrum of the Verkhovna Rada with an official statement, called on the Ukrainian government to take this important step for the country. After all, Russia, though it did not declare war on Ukraine, but it has been leading it for a long time. Russia has long sent weapons to the separatists, their mercenaries-terrorists. Now Russia is shelling the territory of Ukraine from its positions, ”Igor Miroshnichenko, deputy of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine from Svoboda, told the newspaper VIEW. Obviously, he was referring to reports spread by the Ukrainian press that Russian Grads allegedly fired at Ukraine in the Gukovo checkpoint.
“Why has the government still not listened to our call? - rhetorically asks colleague Oleg Pyagnibok. - Because in the current Ukrainian government sit not nationalists, and liberals. We are dissatisfied with the activities of the current President and the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry. " However, the deputy hopes that "the announcement of protest notes by Ukraine and the rupture of diplomatic relations with Russia are not far off."
Recall, Igor Miroshnichenko became widely known after beating in mid-March the head of the National Television Company of Ukraine, Alexander Panteleimonov, for broadcasting the signing of an agreement on joining the Crimea to Russia and a festive concert in Moscow. The beating passed right in the office of the head of the TV channel. The deputy was not punished for this.
Only this week in Kiev they announced that An-26 near Lugansk was shot down "from Russian territory", and the Donetsk city of Snezhnoye had allegedly bombed a Russian plane the day before. However, Kiev could not provide any evidence on any of the listed charges.
"Parliament is unlikely to vote for this"
Deputies of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine from the opposition are confident that the idea of a real war against Russia will not find support either in parliament or in society.
“With the official claims of Kiev against Moscow, I can only agree in part, perhaps, on 10 – 15%. I have enough claims to the current government, starting with what happened on the Maidan. I am in opposition. The National Guard is bombing, civilians are dying ... But as a resident of Donetsk, I have complaints about Russian border guards, ”Nikolai Levchenko, deputy of the Party of Regions, told the VZGLYAD newspaper.
In addition, “there is a propaganda information war, this is a fact. She has not been announced, but she has begun. Both Russia and Ukraine lead it against each other, ”the deputy stressed.
The information war does not turn into a real military clash, because “Russia is the second largest army in the world, a nuclear weapon ...” noted Levchenko. - In addition, of course, it will not find full support in society. And the parliament is unlikely to vote for it, there are different parties with different views. In order to make such a decision, we must come to some general package of claims, at least, according to the majority. And there are a lot of disagreements. ”
“It is necessary for both parties to come to their senses and remember that we are even more than just fraternal peoples,” Levchenko called. He recalled that even during the Great Patriotic War, people in echelons were sent from west to east, from east to west, and there was a "strong confusion" of peoples - Russians, Belarusians and Ukrainians. “The Soviet Union is such a boiler in which everything melted together,” the deputy reminded. He added that he would now do everything to ensure that relations between the countries returned to normal.
Information war instead of traditional
The paradox of the situation is that Kiev combines Kiev with aggression, occupation and “hybrid war” accusations with the continuation of negotiations with Moscow, and the president of “aggression-prone” Ukraine quietly continues to communicate with his Russian counterpart. Between the two countries, the transport communication and trade turnover is maintained, although, of course, on a smaller scale than before.
Experts believe that Kiev has not yet declared war, and moreover, it has not even severed diplomatic relations with Moscow, since he himself does not believe in his own statements. “The accusations are usually heard from the heads of the public, in any case they are not official statements, they are elements of the information war, they don’t have to be surprised,” Mikhail Pogrebinsky, director of the Kiev Center for Political Studies and Conflictology, told the VIEW newspaper.
In Ukraine, politicians themselves are well aware that these accusations are inadequate, Pogrebinsky recalled. “For example, that allegedly planes from Russia shot at Snezhniy. It is clear to any sane person that with modern location capabilities, all the more so now American satellites are closely watching this, if these statements were true, the Americans would already have 100% proof and they would provide them to Ukraine. However, there is nothing like that, the expert stressed. “Consequently, this is nothing more than an information war, and serious people are well aware that this is not true.”
The decision to break off diplomatic relations is made, “when in any negotiations it is impossible to reach any compromises. So far, the Ukrainian government does not think so, ”the political scientist added.
The fact that Ukraine does not even think of declaring war on Russia is also self-evident for the interlocutor: “And what’s the point of declaring war to lose ?! Clearly, this is impossible, ”he exclaimed.
Poroshenko left "business interests in Russia"
Therefore, the conflict remains unfounded. “The Ukrainian leadership does not have a clear plan how to get out of this difficult situation. It does not feel free to make decisions because of the tremendous pressure of the war party and the pressure of the United States Department of State. This puts Poroshenko and his team in conditions where they cannot think anything further than one step further. Hence, this is the absolute absence of strategy and unrealistic tasks with the hope that we will understand a bit later, ”Pogrebinsky summarized.
“The war against Russia is similar to death for Ukraine,” Vadim Trukhachev, a Slavic historian and lecturer at the RSUH, told the newspaper VIEW. “Even if the West will stand up for Ukraine, then as a result of the war with Russia, nothing will remain of Ukraine. In addition, the anti-Russian hysteria in Kiev is nothing more than hysteria, the expert believes. - One thing is to write loud messages on Facebook, as Arsen Avakov does, and another thing is general mobilization, when you need to pick up a weapon and go kill. Open war in Kiev are afraid. The majority of Ukrainian citizens, despite all the anti-Russian hysteria that prevails in Ukrainian social networks, do not want a war against Russia either.
Trukhachev added that we should not forget that Petro Poroshenko also had “business interests in Russia”: “Poroshenko is too practical a person to lose super-profits at the price of a break with Russia. In this regard, Petro Poroshenko is not alone. Dmitry Firtash, Sergey Taruta and others have business ties with Russia. They have survived even in Igor Kolomoisky, ”the interlocutor concluded.
“I’m ashamed to lose to my own people”
“Conversations about the severing of diplomatic relations in Kiev periodically arise,” Kirill Koktysh, an associate professor at the Political Theory Department at MGIMO, told the newspaper VIEW. “Another thing is that breaking the relations with Moscow will not help the case and will only narrow the arsenal of usable political tools.”
Accusations against Russia, according to Koktysh, first of all, have a purely internal political functionality. “It is vitally important for Kiev to explain that it is at war with Russia, and not with its own population. If Kiev constantly blames Russia, it will be easy for him to justify the cruelty and lack of success of their military operations in the South-East. It seems to be not a shame to lose to such a powerful adversary as Russia. And when you lose to your own people, it is a disaster, ”the expert emphasized.
Koktysh added that Kiev would use the indictment resource against Russia as much as possible. “But if it comes to a real break in diplomatic relations, it will only be worse for Kiev. Ukraine currently has extremely low energy supply for the coming winter. 20% of the required volume is obtained for coal, 25% for gas, and atomic energy - the same 20 – 25%. This is called a programmable energy collapse. Against the backdrop of this humanitarian catastrophe, breaking relations with Russia is insane, ”the political analyst believes.
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