Will military dictatorship save Ukraine?
This year, Ukraine needs, according to various estimates, from 30 to 50 billion dollars, which the West is not ready to pay, for servicing state debt, covering budget deficits and the balance of payments. Premier A. Yatsenyuk already understood the hopelessness of the situation and submitted to Rada a letter of resignation, although, to be sure, not accepted. He may be a kamikaze, but not to such an extent as to risk his own head. President Poroshenko, who continues to demonstrate confidence, quickly loses his credit of trust and hardly beats off backstage political blows from the side of Yulia Tymoshenko and fellow oligarchs, first of all I. Kolomoysky, who lost hold of the grip of the “Batkivschyna” leader. The growing militarization of the economic and social life of the country leads to the fact that the “man with a gun” becomes the main figure in it. But where he is and in whose interests this person will turn is not yet clear. There are many candidates for Bonaparte, and each belongs to a particular interest group.
Increased sentiment in favor of establishing a “firm hand” regime is also facilitated by rampant abuses associated with financing a punitive operation in the Donbass. Everything, as always: to whom war is, and to whom mother is dear. According to People’s Deputy and former Minister of Defense Alexander Kuzmuk at a parliamentary meeting, UAH 11,5 billion has already been allocated from the state budget for the needs of the Ministry of Defense. And where are they? Reward payments are mainly distributed among staff. “A unique situation: the army conducting the hostilities is actually supported by relatives who send money and food to the soldiers. And volunteers who bring the rest necessary - from water to thermal imagers. The state-owned enterprise Zhytomyr Armored Plant revealed the understaffing of 78 vehicles of various modifications, which lack engines with gearboxes, towers, etc. At the state-owned enterprise Kyiv Insulated Tank Plant, a shortage of four tanks total value of more than 6 million UAH. and the dismantling of 225 units of armored vehicles. The prosecutor’s office says: “Think about these numbers and imagine how much this technique can occupy purely visually - it's all stolen.”
Aleksandr Zhilin, head of the Center for the Study of Public Applied Problems of Ukraine, said that during the “anti-terrorist operation” in the Donbas, five Ukrainian generals had already become dollar millionaires. He noted that "the sources of prompt enrichment of punitive generals are of particular interest." The facts are revealed not only of “the banal theft of budget funds. There is also a murderous item of income: the dead punishers are not removed from the money allowance and the money of dead souls goes into the pocket of Kiev commanders. ” If in this war huge money will continue to spin, “it will never end,” the expert says. Known tax registration offices for exemption from conscription - 500 dollars. In general, it is not much, but if we are talking about tens, and in the future, hundreds of thousands of draft dodgers, then in aggregate it is not so little. On vacation from the front can only get a bribe.
Short-term euphoria from the capture of Slavyansk and a number of other cities by Ukrainian troops also passes quickly. It turns out that this is not a victory at all, but a serious failure of the leaders of the operation. Even the commentator of the Kiev regime's supporting Internet portal, Khvil, speaks very critically about this: “Slavyansk was not conquered, it was surrendered to the Ukrainian armed forces by a group of insurgents without a single shot. The strike force of the enemy without a loss left the city, retaining all its combat power. Liberation Slavyansk this white noise. Dymzavesa. According to the commentator, “it is unrealistic to destroy the enemy’s thousands of heavy armed groupings in the millionth Donetsk even according to the technologies of the modern maneuverable network-centric war, despite the fact that our troops are fighting according to 30’s technologies, not even World War II.”
Another Ukrainian author in the article “Chaos is approaching Ukraine” expresses concerns about “what might happen in the fall if the collapse of the economy concentrates, a sharp drop in people's living standards, cold and lack of money, the hardening of the population caused by the war and its many victims , “Donetsk (by the type of“ Afghan ”) syndrome” of the military who underwent military operations in the Donbass, the radicalism of populist politicians and the cultivation of militant and chauvinistic sentiments of the media ”. It would not be surprising “if unruly - or guided by someone - crowds will start smashing state institutions, carrying out“ people's lustration ”and lynching deputies and officials without parsing their party affiliation.” Already now, in front of the presidential administration of Ukraine, almost every day relatives of the soldiers are rally, receiving from their mobile phones information about the disgraces created in the army, and commanders throwing their subordinates on the battlefield.
The rehearsal of the military coup took place at the end of June, when around 300 a man from the Donbass, Azov, and Aidar battalions created in rushing I. Kolomoisky battalions in camouflage, masked and balaclava gathered on the Maidan in Kiev. They demanded an end to the truce, to impose martial law in the country, to ensure a sufficient number weapons for volunteers, allow the use of any means to destroy the militias of Donbass.
The most likely scenario of a military coup may look like this when extreme nationalists from the National Guard units arrive in Kiev from the area of the punitive operation and, joining with other militants of the Right Sector and Maidan’s Self-Defense, will require a change in the “selling regime” ... According to the Kiev prosecutor Sergey Yuldashev, 12 metropolitan administrative buildings, including the October Palace and the Ukrainian House, are still under the control of self-defense forces. “In these buildings can be quite a large number of weapons. And today, representatives of self-defense do not state their intention to vacate these premises. ” Without a doubt, the main beneficiary of such a seizure of power would be I. Kolomoisky.
The nationalist media warns Poroshenko: “The army is now turning into the only legitimate power institution of the state. All the rest are rotten through and through. But Peter Alekseevich rejects the army, which means that he rejects the people. So who Poroshenko's ally? Everything looks like that very soon Peter Alekseevich will not have them at all. The confidence of the people he will lose. The army is already starting to hate him. The police and the SBU have long decomposed. With this approach, Poroshenko will not even have three years of Yanukovych. A quick dawn is followed by a quick sunset. ” Even an approximate look of the future device of Ukraine is drawn. In particular, the alleged authoritarian regime in Kiev, according to Ukrainian analyst Yuriy Romanenko, “will bear the features of a military democracy relying on broad sections of the population. Without a broad social base, this regime simply cannot resist the war with a powerful enemy ... Moscow did everything to convince the Russians that the junta was ruling in Kiev. Well, it's about time that this junta really rose to its full height. ”
Poroshenko begins to recognize the danger threatening him and takes preventive measures. His recent assignments in the military departments indicate that he, apparently, is preparing not so much for a war with an “external opponent”, as for a fight with competitors. Thus, one of the first steps of the Minister of Defense personally appointed by him to the former head of the State Security Directorate, Valery Geletey, was the cessation of the transfer of “voluntary” (read: hired and oligarchic) armament battalions from the arsenals of the Ministry of Defense. Kolomoisky demanded that Geletey provide these weapons, but he suggested that he negotiate directly with Poroshenko. All this only spurs the radicals to hasten with the seizure of power.
Poroshenko cannot fail to understand that, continuing the war in the Donbass, he contributes to the strengthening of militaristic and Bonapartist sentiments in the country and thereby brings his overthrow, which, taking into account the overall situation, may occur according to the most bloody scenario. Any reforms in the economy in such conditions will become impossible. Yes, the Ukrainian president is threatened, they demand that he continue the “war to the bitter end,” but it is impossible to win the war with his own people, since the fault lines pass not only on the battlefield - they pass through the minds and hearts of people. And they will remain so with any outcome of the fighting. Further, the requirements of “war to the bitter end” will only increase and become more and more dangerous. Will President Poroshenko's instinct for self-preservation work, will he go to reconciliation and compromise with his compatriots? After all, for him this is the only opportunity to remain in power. And in this the people would support him.
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