Ukrainian siloviki are invested with the complete trust of the first person. Will it help them to hold out until “victory”?
In early July, the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine was headed by the first full-fledged minister in three months instead of two successively serving duties - Vladimir Tenyukh and Mikhail Koval. Valery Geletey received the MOU, not having the slightest experience in managing such a bulky and cumbersome structure as a military bureaucratic apparatus. In addition, the new director once again came to the state concern "Ukroboronprom". Instead of Yuri Tereshchenko, the defense conglomerate was headed by Roman Romanov. In the past, he had his own auto show, in other relations with the engineering industry, the new head of Ukroboronprom was not noticed.
Both appointees enjoy almost complete (as is characteristic of the oligarch president) confidence on the part of the Supreme Commander of Ukraine.
Young generals will lead our caravan
Under Yushchenko, Valeriy Geletei was a very popular character in the Ukrainian media practicing investigative journalism. For the first time, this name of an unknown major “out of organs” was widely heard thanks to the special sympathies that the President had for him. During the reign of Yushchenko, Geletey from the colonel became a major general.
New Minister of Defense comes from the Transcarpathian region. From the beginning of 2000-x served in the Ministry of Internal Affairs, including headed the capital OCD. In 2006, President Viktor Yushchenko appointed Police Colonel Geletey as Chief of the Main Law Enforcement Service Department of the Presidential Secretariat of Ukraine. Soon the colonel received the rank of major general of the police. From 2007 to 2009, Geletey headed the Department of State Protection. The subsequent resignation was associated with the resignation of his patron Viktor Baloga from the post of head of the Presidential Secretariat, who, by the way, is still not present among the representatives of the current government, although he had not previously concealed presidential ambitions. Most likely, Baloga remains the only Ukrainian participant in the change of power in Kiev who is hiding in the shadows, such a “piano in the bushes” on the Pechersk slopes.
In March of this year, Oleksandr Turchynov, appointed by the Rada as acting president, put Geletei as head of the state security department of Ukraine. Now the general was entrusted with the military department, closing his eyes to the absence of any experience. Most likely, the criterion of choice was not so much professional qualities as the level of personal loyalty to the new head of Ukraine.
The lack of military experience of the newly made Minister of Defense appeared immediately after its approval by the Ukrainian Parliament. Geletey managed to promise a military parade in "Ukrainian Sevastopol." Of course, in patriotic frenzy, even Ukrainian corruption can be promised to be defeated, but if you have to do it? Geletey didn’t even get a popular print with the inscription “Army of Ukraine”, but scraps of it that accidentally survived. Tanksas the practice of “special operations” has shown, they are not always formidable and dangerous, aviation in three months there was practically no catching of "terrorists", the morale of the army was not at a victorious level. In addition, the General Staff of the Ministry of Defense is strong only in battles with a likely adversary “on paper”: how many colonels and majors defended dissertations, which detail the strategy and tactics of countering “terrorist groups” in local military conflicts on the borders of Ukraine, only military science statistics and command know -State Institute for the use of troops of the National University of Defense of Ukraine named after I. Chernyakhovsky. In fact, it turned out that the Ukrainian military did not really own (or carefully hide their university-academic knowledge) even history fighting the Great Patriotic War in the Donbas. Otherwise they would not have allowed the rebels to seize a number of positions, such as Saur-Moghila, the highest point of the terrain from which the militia, using artillery, methodically destroy the columns of the Ukrainian army, as sixty years earlier the Nazi occupiers.
In turn, the loss of equipment in the conflict led to the fact that the state wants to select the helicopters legally transferred to the “private owners” in order to throw them into the war boiler. The power structures felt an acute shortage of serviceable "turntables" in June. Since April, the military have been trying to return 16 Mi-8, which since 2003 has been leased from JSC Ukrainian Airlines Helicopter Company. The term of the contract was extended several times, and in 2013, the lease was again extended - until the end of 2021. Now, referring to force majeure circumstances, namely in connection with the anti-terrorist operation on the territory of Donetsk and Lugansk regions, the military are trying to return the helicopters. Probably in a hurry to lose them forever. In order to "scare" the company, an investigation was launched under the h. 1 Art. 114-1 of the Criminal Code (obstruction of the legitimate activities of the armed forces).
However, in this case, a legal conflict arose, since officially in Ukraine there are no reasons for force majeure: neither a military nor a state of emergency has been declared, which involves the mechanism of early termination of the lease and return of helicopters due to the occurrence of force majeure. Therefore, there is no reason to confirm the legality of claims from the Ukrainian army. In order to prove that MOU did have martial law or aggression, that is, a situation in which the contract is terminated, one must go to the Chamber of Commerce and then go to court. At best, these procedures will take several months at best, but the process may take a year or two. Nevertheless, the prospects for the "selection" of technology are dubious, as the "turntables" fly under UN contracts, bringing annually up to 80 – 100 millions of dollars to a private company formally owned by a modest married couple from Dnepropetrovsk.
Despite the apparent weakness of private owners, all previous attempts at relatively fair removal of helicopters, even within the legal framework of the agreement, failed even to the most energetic Orange Minister of Defense, Anatoly Gritsenko, who had organized a temporary investigative commission of the Verkhovna Rada to study the circumstances of the violation of the use of military equipment and return it. The loud and super-operative commission was nevertheless quietly dissolved a month later.
In addition to the absence of helicopters, according to the White Book-2013, the Ukrainian army had several dozens of Su-25 attack planes and Su-24M front bomber to fight ground targets. However, since the beginning of the conflict, due to the high accident rate, low technical readiness, lowered level of flight training and the almost complete lack of combat skills, at least a dozen aircraft were lost. The remaining ones do not always meet the requirements of combat readiness, even under wartime conditions. An even greater problem is created by the extreme shortage of flight technical staff.
For them, as for all the personnel of the armed forces of Ukraine, there are few incentives to fight. Who is not constrained by moral and ethical principles, it is great that the prospects are sobering to go to their native lands with the 200 cargo or to meet with fellow countrymen who received their defenders of the “single country” in their coffins. The dead in the meaningless meat grinder of the so-called anti-terrorist operation (ATO) are delivered to all regions of Ukraine, starting from Kirovograd and Dnepropetrovsk and ending with Ivano-Frankivsk and Lvov. However, relatives will not even be able to prove that the guys died for "sovereignty" in the fight against "separatists". The causes of death are stated purely peaceful: young people often die from "blood clots", "acute heart failure" and other "accidents at work". So neither the assistance from the state, nor the status of the participants in the hostilities or the dead heroes, neither the dead nor the living servicemen of the Ukrainian army, at least most of them, cannot be counted on.
This legacy went to the current Minister of Defense, and in addition to Poroshenko’s attempts to “play Stalin.” “The operation in Slavyansk”, according to the Ukrainian press, was planned almost by the president personally. Will he continue his exercises in strategy further or will he entrust this hard work to Geletey? Poroshenko may have taken into account the experience gained by the new minister in the "internal organs" and in the protection of the first person, which he can also apply in terms of increasing the level of coordination of the actions of the "anti-terrorist" leadership - the military, the Security Service and the National Guard under the oligarchic battalions.
Most likely, the new Minister of Defense will have to reveal or urgently grow in himself the talent of a strategist of siege operations. The main goal of the ATO until the beginning of July was the defeat of the Slavic group led by Igor Girkin. And the “ATO forces” successfully failed this operation. True, the perpetrators have not yet been identified, except for the surprising replacement of practically the entire leadership of the antiterrorist operation with this event: Defense Minister Mikhail Koval, Chief of the General Staff Mikhail Kutsin and Head of the Anti-Terrorism Center - First Deputy Chairman of the SBU Vasily Krutov. With the departure of the most capable part of the DPR army to Donetsk, the Ukrainian military faced a dilemma: how to take what they were not going to take. The operation to block one of the largest cities in the country was not planned initially. And now Geletey will have to take responsibility for its outcome, since even the self-planning of military actions by the president did not frighten the defendants. In general, this is “not the unforgettable Tsarskoye Selo”, but an episode of civil war unpleasant for Kiev.
Probably, the command of the special operation will continue to fight not with skill, but with the number of ... artillery installations. Most likely, the tactics of intimidating the civilian population will continue to be worked out in Donetsk. We are waiting for air strikes, artillery shelling and the use of "Gradov" - "Hurricanes" - "Tornadoes". The Ukrainian security forces will not take care of either the cities or the local residents - they have the task of “punishing” the dissenters, not catching the “terrorists”, achieving a quick victory, and not resolving the internal socio-political conflict.
Rise from Romanov
The first week of July was the last to work as the general director of the Ukroboronprom concern for Yuri Tereshchenko. Prior to that, there were rumors about the upcoming change of leadership.
Poroshenko decided to entrust the defense industry, coupled with weapons export to his former representative in the presidential election in the Kherson region, Roman Romanov. True, Tereshchenko also could not be called a person too far for the current president. During the leadership of Poroshenko, the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine Tereshchenko took the place of the first deputy secretary in this structure. The current position for Tereshchenko also became possible as a result of a change of power in Kiev in February this year.
With the ex-general director of "Ukroboronprom" now want to settle accounts. People’s deputies sent an appeal to the Prosecutor General’s Office to check how “the man of Yanukovich”, that is, Tereshchenko, was at the head of the concern and dared to continue military-technical cooperation with the Russian Federation. The letter was signed by four deputies of Ukraine from the Batkivshchyna, Udar and Svoboda factions, Ukrainian media reported with reference to a source in the Verkhovna Rada Committee on National Security and Defense. The Prosecutor General’s Office confirmed the information about the appeal.
“We do not exclude that military equipment seized by Ukrainian security forces from terrorists was not really Russian-made. This technique was produced in Ukraine and sold to the so-called militia, not without effort, Yuri Tereshchenko and his main patron, Viktor Yanukovych. And today Tereshchenko is already preparing a springboard for the upcoming parliamentary elections, pasting the whole of Nikolaev with his advertising boards, and is negotiating with political forces that are indifferent to the origin of his funds for joint participation in the parliamentary race, ”the deputy’s statement reads.
Apparently, Tereshchenko’s call for Nikolaev enterprises to revive former glory was caught by someone’s imagination. Not so long ago, in Nikolaev, all the billboards were taped with a photo of Tereshchenko with the appeal: "Let's revive the industrial glory of the shipbuilders' city!" Below are the Nikolaev enterprises included in the concern "Ukroboronprom". On the eve of a possible parliamentary campaign, such an advertisement was unequivocally interpreted as an election campaign. Immediately it turned out that the majority of Ukroboronprom's Nikolaev enterprises have wage arrears. According to the Main Department of Statistics in the Nikolaev region, on 1 June 2014, the state enterprise Ukrainian Radio Engineering Institute owed its employees 1,4 a million hryvnias, and the state enterprise Nikolaev Armor Plant a little less. Only recently, they paid off wage arrears at the State Enterprise “Shipbuilding Plant named after 61 of the Communard” and the State Enterprise “Southern Production and Technical Enterprise”.
In addition, the Prosecutor General's Office has identified the facts of theft of military property in the enterprises of Ukroboronprom for 27 million hryvnia. In the course of legislative checks, numerous facts of weapons and military equipment losses in state structures were transferred to the concern in 2011 from the Ministry of Defense. 17 enterprises in the structure of Ukroboronprom "lost" 189 units of automobile and armored vehicles, revealed the dismantling of 440 units of aviation, artillery and other weapons and military equipment.
How will deputies evaluate the work of Roman Romanov?
By education he is a physics teacher (in 1995, he graduated from the Physics and Mathematics Department of the Kherson State Pedagogical Institute named after NK Krupskaya). From 1992, the entrepreneur. He is the owner of the salon "Avtoplaneta", which was founded in 2001, as well as a number of other less well-known enterprises. He was twice elected a deputy to the Kherson Regional Council, in whose composition he dealt with issues of planning, the regional economy, the introduction of investments, the development of entrepreneurship, resort and tourism activities, the management of municipal property and privatization. I changed several political parties, always giving preference to the ruling party - Viktor Yushchenko began in the People’s Union “Our Ukraine”, continued Yulia Tymoshenko’s “Batkivshchyna” until Arseniy Yatsenyuk stayed on “Front 3min”, then supporting Petro Poroshenko’s presidential ambitions. In general, Romanov, at first glance, is even farther from the "defense" than Geletey from the army. But, apparently, he is invested with high confidence in the current president of Ukraine and is well versed in the secret course of financial flows, since, according to Poroshenko, the new head of Ukroboronprom is a specialist who has enough experience to ensure effective economic activity of the concern.
Poroshenko has already instructed the new director to establish effective cooperation, "which will not only significantly increase the profitability of Ukroboronprom, provide our armed forces with high-quality armament, but also demonstrate effective steps to combat corruption and increase revenues to the state budget."
At the same time, the President of Ukraine is confident that the antiterrorist operation, which is taking place in the east of the country, will lead not only to victory, but also to the creation of new types of weapons that have been “baptized in battle”. Well, wait is not so long. A few more months, and we, following Poroshenko, will see exactly how the new weapons were baptized, which will lead to the “victory of the ATO”. In order not to delay the triumph for a long time, the president immediately instructed Ukroboronprom to submit a new version of the state defense order to the National Security and Defense Council.
All these instructions somehow do not tally with the worst situation in the country's economy. In June, there was a shortage of taxes. The industry, which was promised a revival, is still without Russian gas, which is not there anyway, but in winter it will be necessary either to stop or take fuel somewhere. State orders must be paid, but there are no funds in the budget, and it is not clear where they are going to take them from. In general, there are all the prerequisites to ensure that the “victory” of the new government comes very soon.