"A letter to Ukraine", or Until it is too late ...
Being a native Ukrainian, the author of this article lived most of his adult life far from his homeland. I will clarify: I consider the USSR as the homeland — the country in which I grew up, got an education and formed a value system. The country, which provided economic, social and scientific reserves to its heirs, to pull her apart. One can argue about what was good and bad in the Union, but this is a question stories. It is indisputable that its collapse was a protracted tragedy that killed thousands of people in the Baltic States, Transnistria, Abkhazia, Ossetia, Georgia, Chechnya, Armenia and Azerbaijan, not to mention Eastern Europe, Central Asia and the Middle East; tragedy, which to this day sows discord, suffering and death.
Ukraine is a vivid example of this. In previous articles I touched on the historical, cultural and economic background of this conflict. Unfortunately, the worst fears and the most pessimistic predictions have become a reality: today, Ukraine is engulfed in the flames of a civil war, which flare up ever brighter with each passing day. The opportunity to prevent the bloody development of the confrontation between the West and the Center with the South-East was missed. Actually, the interim government did not try to avoid it. On the contrary, due to incompetence and vested interests, everything was done to further escalate the violence. They wanted all the hares with a murderous wolf in one fell swoop, but now, quoting the second president of Ukraine, “little those that small.”
After each communication with my parents and acquaintances in Kiev, I have a steady impression that people are sitting behind the TV screen as behind a fence and for some reason think that they are an eyewitness and almost no participant in the events in real time. True, for some reason they don’t go to Slavyansk to check the facts, but prefer to watch Savik Shuster’s shows and other TV nonsense. After which, like a drug addict after a shoal, everything is happy, fun and optimistic. As a result, the majority of Ukrainians (the one that does not live in the territory of the so-called ATO) impose false assessments of events, which, however, are often distorted. The result - a holistic and consistent black and white picture is formed in the heads and, what is the most dangerous, a selective perception is formed. All that is contrary to this picture, just ignored. For example, a journalist from a respected English publication was offered to strip the words and remove “Shuster Live” from the air only for what he said as an eyewitness that there are few Russian militias in the Slavic detachment and mostly local ones are fighting. By the way, from the entire Western press, in my opinion, it is the British (BBC, for example) that is the most balanced and objective (as opposed to continental Europe and the USA).
After the military successes of the militia, the Ukrainian TV heroes are openly outraged by the inaction and softness of the government, they say, we must be tougher with the terrorists! Such a reaction, of course, will gradually change when real data about losses among security officials begin to emerge, when parents stop receiving news from their mobilized or overly patriotic-minded children milled in war. To get the country out of the state of mental corkscrew, you need to openly ask yourself uncomfortable questions to deputies and the government:
- Why are "terrorists" supported by the majority of the local population?
- Why are there so many? Why are even local women fighting on their side?
- Why don't we try to start full-fledged negotiations? At least in order to understand what the enemy wants and with whom you can negotiate.
In this article, I present my point of view on the stereotypes that have been formed and on further scenarios for the development of events - I hope someone will reflect and try to answer these questions, even if only to themselves.
1. Nationalists in the Rada, the government, the Right Sector and the National Guard are fighters for the freedom of the fatherland who will protect and lead the country to prosperity in Europe.
One step from nationalism to fascism, one should not be mistaken about this. Nationalists are ready to cut the throat for their national idea to all those who are not along the way with them (remember Bandera and Bulbash). The Nazis, as you know, are ready to exterminate all who do not belong to their race. In general, the difference is small - and they both tend to geographically isolate the object of their hatred, preferably with subsequent destruction (either physical or by erasing culture, spirituality, history, self-awareness, etc.). So do not be deceived, people with nationalists are not on the way. People are fleeing nationalism, the economy and the state are declining.
For example, in the eyes of the world, Montreal was a symbol of Canada until the ultranationalists raised their heads in 60 in Quebec (which culminated in the abduction and murder of vice-premier and labor minister Pierre Laporte and the temporary imposition of martial law with the abolition of civil liberties in 1970 year). Since then, a significant part of big business and virtually all of the big financial industry, including the headquarters of all major banks, settled in Ontario, whose capital, Toronto, has grown several times and has become in all respects the first city in Canada. In the center of Montreal is still full of empty office buildings, which locals call haunted houses. The English-speaking diaspora in Quebec periodically protests against the law, according to which doctors and policemen must speak only in French, and entrepreneurs are outraged because of fines for labels and signs in English. In contrast, in Ontario, where most people speak English, but there is also a small community of francophone, the labels on all products are bilingual, as are the signs on highways. I'm not talking about the fact that any government service can be provided at will in English or French, and all government documents are printed in two languages (up to the driver's license). Conclusion - nationalism leads to terror, even in such a prosperous country like Canada, and ultimately to the flight of business and economic decline. In Europe, it is also not necessary for anyone, no one country with such zamorochki there will not accept their problems and freeloaders enough.
2. Against the freedom-loving people of Ukraine, including the intoxicated population of Donbass, only Russian and Chechen mercenaries-saboteurs, sent by Putin, are fighting, and there are also local gangsters.
Well, you can't argue with the fact of the presence of the Russians, there are definitely volunteers. It does not matter who they are - Chechens, Udmurts, I even saw an interview with a Russian Afghan recently. Just something I do not recall a single irrefutable evidence, officially presented by the Government of Ukraine, that this is the employees of the Russian Armed Forces. Some vague references to some detentions, courts, confessions, seized by the ksivs of the Russian law enforcement agencies (such can be done at home as you please, not to mention the capabilities of the Ukrainian special services). By the way, no saboteur will not take identity documents with him on assignment, if someone has not watched military films and does not know.
Such a number of saboteurs no budget, even the Russian, will not pull. Russia itself cannot transfer the army to a contract, and here 10-20 thousand bayonets will keep on a payment order indefinitely with an uncertain outcome, in addition to full satisfaction and security. Yes, and salaries, of course, should be higher than the army - after all, military operations in foreign territory. In general, nonsense, does not hold water. But support for the militia by the local population is beyond doubt, as is the prevailing presence of local militias in its ranks. Otherwise, why was it necessary to organize filtration camps for the population of Slavyansk?
For clarity, I will clarify - weapon and Russia is likely to supply equipment to Novorossia, although no one has proved it properly either. However, it’s difficult to blame her - after the Ukrainian army deployed artillery, Tanks и Aviation against the civilian population, to paraphrase Putin, did they have to answer with a penknife?
3. Putin turned Russia into an empire that wants to crush Ukraine or, at worst, to make its weak-willed satellite, the benefit is the experience of suppressing national movements in Chechnya and Georgia.
You can call Russia as you please, including an empire. Do not worry, in this sense, the United States - even a big empire. The essence is not in the name, but in concrete actions and “imperial” politics. Russia subsidized the economy of Ukraine all the years of its independence and tolerated minor dirty tricks with the separation of the church, the island of Tuzla and navigation equipment, attempts to block the Russian fleet in Sevastopol in 2008, the NITKA simulator, all sorts of color revolutions, the slurred grunting of the government about the status of the Russian language, flirting with NATO and the European Union - the list goes on. Probably, the empire hoped for friendship in exchange for such a soft and patient attitude. But here’s an armed coup, and with the rupture of the agreements that have just been reached between Yanukovych and Maidan, that’s too sorry. Allow European integrators with an anti-Russian bias to power in a neighboring country, with the prospect of its entry into NATO and the loss of the Russian naval base in the Crimea? Yes, that's certainly not imperial. In Georgia, it already was, and what came of it?
On the issue of colonization, in contrast to the western countries known for the crusades, the colonization of the Americas with the extermination of the local population and the entire history of slavery and colonialism, Russia expanded, preserving the culture, religion and structure of the annexed territories. For example, no one justified the Poles and Finns by force; on the contrary, they were given local government and did not impose serfdom, allowed to preserve their language and way of life. And what? For the granting of independence after the October Revolution, Poland repatriated Russia with an aggressive war, and Finland immediately went to the camp of the opponents of Russia.
The inspirer and leader of the Chechen resistance to Russia, Shamil in his old age, was defeated, pardoned, swore allegiance to the Russian Tsar, and bequeathed to his children, being impressed by the respectful attitude shown to him by the Tsar. After Putin came to power, the problems with Chechnya were decided in the same way. Chechnya was and again became the spear of Russia in the Caucasus (recall their participation on the Russian side in all post-perestroika Georgian wars, up to the 2008 year). I generally keep quiet about Georgia - my own democratic government opened production on Saakashvili for his abuse of power and admitted that it was he who started the 2008 war of the year, having lost the rebellious republics for Georgia. It also advised the Ukrainians on the Maidan not to listen to the advice of this former “ruler” in order to avoid trouble (they didn’t even know how right they would be).
4. The Russian people will rally against Putin and his imperial manners.
Well, that's just not true. Putin's rating after the Crimea increased significantly, many of those who treated him negatively changed their opinion (judging by personal conversations with my acquaintances and relatives - Russians). The majority regards the return of the Crimea as restoration of historical justice (or rather, correction of injustice).
5. Ukraine needs western democracy.
First of all, “democracy” is an abstract concept and distinct from social justice and the welfare of the people. If corruption flourishes in a democratic country, there is little benefit from such a democracy. People (not politicians) are not interested in the ghostly right to participate in “governing the country by voting” once every five years, but in a peaceful sky over their heads, bread on the table, order on the street and the opportunity to find a job all year round. This is exactly what the Ukrainian government is not doing. On the other hand, they create an 10-kilometer “obstacle course” on the border with Russia - clearly, the expected result will be more visual, it will be easier to report, and there is no use for that, it has yet to be proved.
It should be noted that at the moment there can be no democracy in Ukraine in principle, since democracy during a revolution or war leads to defeat. For war, you need tough unity of command, which will allow you to transfer the country to a military footing, declare martial law, introduce labor service of the population - turn the country into a military camp, as in 41. The government also does nothing of this and pays for it with the blood of Ukrainian guys, who, by and large, give a damn about what happens next with the Donbas.
The interesting effect of democracy on a war is to underestimate our own losses and overestimate the losses of the enemy (since we have democracy, it means our cause is right, it means we must fight better, and then, you see, the leadership will be democratically replaced). Naturally, the number of dead from the "right" side is underestimated by several times, and success is overestimated - as, for example, in Korea and Vietnam.
I will also note that it is much more expensive to take decisions and negotiate with anyone in a “democratic” way. The more people on each side, the statistically larger the difference of opinion. A Democrat leader must take into account the opinions of all, therefore the most radical opinions have a greater impact on negotiations than when all decisions are made by one responsible boss. I hope Poroshenko is aware of this.
6. The Ukrainian army and other formations are conducting an anti-terrorist operation, defending the territorial integrity of the country.
The Ukrainian government persists in calling the civil war ATO, which does not allow them to declare martial law, begin to mobilize production, private capital, etc. to ensure military action. They expect, probably, that foreign countries will help them, rely on western advisers. Well, well, in South Vietnam, too, at one time relied. And abroad will not help - the IMF will not give money for a protracted war, since the possibility of their return will be in great doubt. It is not known who will win; even if the government, where does it take money after the war to pay off loans? The same applies to the European Union and the United States - and in terms of the economy, it’s not sweet to them, and here it’s necessary to justify the funds allocated for the incompetent clearing of those who disagree. In addition to the lack of resources, the Aesopian language of the government brings porridge to the military’s head - private Vasyl or Myhailo arrives to fight the “terrorists”, and he is met with “Grads”, artillery and tanks, and now the attack aircraft also helps. Not a fig yourself "terrorists"!
It is clear where the prosecutors of Russia’s feet grow from — perhaps this is the Russian army fighting, not “quilted jackets,” how else can their military successes be explained? The militia clearly sympathizes and helps the population of Donbass, otherwise the hell would the rebels hold out against the regular army.
By definition, terrorists do not fight the army face to face with a weapon in their hands, but carry out terrorist acts in peaceful cities against the peaceful population. Something I have not heard of anything like this, except that the oligarch Kolomoisky’s explosions of the branches of the bank, and that at night so that visitors and staff would not suffer.
In the Ukrainian General Staff, too, probably an easy embarrassment - they need to plan front-line operations according to science, and their SBU and the president are forced to ensure coverage along the flanks and blocking the border so that the “terrorists” from Russia do not leak. From a military point of view, these are two ready-made boilers (north and south), which should not be shut down by the militia, rather than steaming or stealing or destroying the supply column. Without food and ammunition, the resistance of the encirclement will not drag on, and all their equipment will quickly move the militiamen.
If we do not recognize that the country is in a state of civil war between the two parties, which in principle can agree, then negotiations will never begin. Negotiations with the terrorists do not lead, they are destroyed. Thus, the government excludes in advance the possibility of a peaceful solution to the conflict. Accordingly, Poroshenko will not be determined at all - he declares to the Western rulers that he is ready to negotiate without preliminary conditions, then he sets the conditions in advance unacceptable. And it would be worth thinking about how you can keep people in the country by force, destroying their homes and killing them on their land? How can you win a war without calling it a war and not knowing what the enemy wants - without even bothering to go on a dialogue? The previous truce does not count - it’s clear to the hedgehog that it was used as a breather before the assault.
The rhetorical question - what does an average person need in order to see the light? After all, they will wait for the children to start throwing grenades into the bodies of the passing columns and at roadblocks, or pour sand into the trunks of the howitzers for their dead relatives. For comparison: it took my relative a month to believe that Saakashvili gave the order to fire from Gradov in Tskhinval, but the stakes in that propaganda campaign were much lower ...
7. Ukrainian government wins the war.
The Ukrainian government has already lost the war. The question is when will it be forced to recognize it and how many people will die before. If to whom this fact is not obvious, I justify.
In order not to repeat about the coming economic collapse in the fall, let me remind you that even the mentally ill Hitler understood the importance of the military economy - it was not for nothing that he turned part of the troops to Ukraine in 41, and in 42, in the Volga and the Caucasus. He knew that in order to wage war, especially maneuvering, fuel, food, raw materials and industry are needed, and that the enemy must be stripped of this. Ukraine does not have its own fuel for the harvesting campaign, and oil products imported from Russia and Belarus are barely enough for a lot of tanks, BMBs, armored personnel carriers, trucks, towing vehicles, airplanes, etc. Russia will gladly stop supplying fuel and lubricants if it comes to that. Besides the fact that the entire auto, armor and aircraft fleet will rise, the harvest-2014 will be significantly less than in previous years.
Now about the main thing. Before the retreat from Slavyansk from the militia, it was necessary to “stand for a day and hold out for the night”, and they exceeded this task. Thanks to the brilliantly conducted tactical retreat, the rebels have a disciplined and fought-up army (now also contract) assembled into a fist, the central command led by a worthy leader who obeys all units and which provides overall planning and operational control of troops. Heavy equipment, personnel, including military specialists, equipment, and financial support are being saturated. Have you ever heard of their lack of ammunition? I did not hear. For one volley of "Grad" (this is 40 shells), you need at least a truck loaded with ammunition loaded to the top. So, the militia has bases, and the supply is organized seriously. Most importantly, they have the motivation and willingness to die for their beliefs, and also the taste of victory. After the inevitable defeat of the surrounded Ukrainian troops near the border with Russia and on the airfields of Lugansk and Donetsk, hostilities will spread to the territory of adjacent areas, about which, without hiding, commander Strelkov said. An indirect confirmation of this conclusion is Poroshenko’s complete change of leadership in the ATO and the army. They don’t change horses at the crossing unless the horses drowned with carts and urgently need new ones. Even if the security forces manage to recover from defeats in the territories of the unrecognized republics and organize a semblance of defense, soon Poroshenko, the United States and Europe will be forced to ask Putin (no one else) to stop the offensive of the Donbass army. Putin "reluctantly" agrees to introduce peacekeepers when the front line passes along the border of historical Novorossia with all its areas. Maybe even "persuade" the militia to retreat a bit, as a gesture of goodwill. It is clear that, apart from the Russians, Donbass will not agree to any other peacekeepers.
Given all this, Poroshenko has only one way to avoid defeat, mass casualties among Ukrainians, and at the same time the second Nuremberg. You can not fight - go to the negotiations, but do not borrow and re-borrow money for the war, while continuing to shove cannon fodder into the meat grinder. This is a sure way to lose both the army and the territory. As commander in chief, only the president can declare a withdrawal from Novorossia and begin negotiations without any preconditions. This is exactly what Russia constantly offers, although, as we see, it has enough other, more rigid means of influence.
God forbid that this is not reached.
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