New round of confrontation
The main director of the unleashing of a civil war in Ukraine, the White House, which blames Russia for all the grave sins of destabilizing the situation in this country, does not officially voice its real plans in Eastern Europe. However, his brain trusts, despite all the diplomatic overtures of Washington and his assurances of exclusively peaceful intentions in this region, have recently been actively conducting a thorough assessment of America’s tactical nuclear potential in Europe and are trying to measure the stockpiles of tactical nuclear weapons (TNW) of Russia. Analysts of these organizations argue that the actions of Moscow, regardless of the outcome of events in Ukraine, lead to a violation of the current strategic balance of the two countries. In this regard, experts recommend the leadership of America to take a set of new measures to strengthen its nuclear potential.Aspiration to total unification
Experts say that, despite America’s best efforts to improve relations with Russia and the concessions made to it, especially in the nuclear field, the Kremlin’s leadership continues to violate its obligations.
In the opinion of American experts, the White House administration made especially great concessions to Moscow during the signing of the New Strategic Arms Reductions Treaty (New START).
Washington agreed not to impose strict control over the progress of this process, reduced the size of programs to develop strategic missile defense systems, and undertook to reduce the number of strategic nuclear warheads compared to Russia. The asymmetry of the terms of the new treaty adopted by the White House, American experts believe, was clearly not in favor of America.
Moscow is also accused of violating the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty - INF and also giving false and incomplete data to the American partners on the process. This state of affairs, in the opinion of Western experts, is a serious threat to the European allies of the United States, since they are in the zone of destruction of Russian medium-range ballistic missiles. From the side of America, it would be extremely unwise, experts believe, not to take into account this threat to the NATO countries.
Serious and rather hopeless debates are also being held on the issue of reducing tactical nuclear weapons. The United States and Russia still cannot reach agreement on this issue, since America does not want to withdraw its tactical nuclear warheads from Europe and, moreover, continues to modernize this type of weapon.
MEASURES PROPOSED BY THE SCIENTISTS OF THE WHITE HOUSE
American experts are confident that, given Russia's pronounced aggressiveness, its clear disregard for the provisions of treaty obligations on arms control and the threat it represents to the national interests of the United States, its allies and the preservation of Ukraine as a single and stable state, Washington has come when he should take all the necessary steps to strengthen his nuclear positions.
First of all, America needs to exit the New START Treaty. This measure, according to analysts, is due to the fact that this agreement does not allow to ensure the predictability of the further development of Russian-American relations in the strategic nuclear sphere. At present, for the first time since the end of the Cold War, Russia has embarked on a very large-scale and intensive program for modernizing nuclear weapons. At the same time, the United States is allegedly not taking any measures to stop the degradation of its strategic nuclear potential (although, of course, in reality this is far from the case).
At the present stage, according to American analysts, the Treaty on the Reduction of the BRSD has lost its value. It only creates the illusion that on this side of the national security of the United States nothing threatens. For these reasons, experts say, the White House must stop all treaties with Moscow on arms control, which it continues to violate to some extent.
In addition, the White House must stop all measures to unilaterally reduce nuclear weapons. The United States plans to reduce the combat power of its armed forces by reducing its military arsenal, while Moscow is only continuing to build up its military potential. There are also significant imbalances in the obligations of Russia and America, undertaken by them in order to maintain international security. Washington provides nuclear safety to more than 30 countries of the world, while Russia, according to foreign experts, not only does not guarantee nuclear protection to other states, but also threatens them with its nuclear weapons. Therefore, Washington needs to turn NATO into a nuclear alliance again, modernize and maintain combat-ready forward-base systems, including bombing Aviation dual-purpose tactical nuclear bombs of the B-61 family and strategic long-range missiles equipped with nuclear and conventional warheads.
At present, a sufficiently large part of the nuclear warheads of the US strategic nuclear forces (SNF) and their delivery systems have largely expired. The White House administration did not allocate the necessary allocations to the Pentagon to the extent it promised before ratifying the New START Treaty. In addition, the Budget Control Act obliged the US Department of Defense to reduce the amount of funds spent on weapons development. These restrictions, according to experts, will lead to the fact that the military will have to slow down the further development of nuclear infrastructure, including the creation of a new strategic bomber - a carrier of nuclear weapons and the next-generation SSBNs. Slowing down the development programs for these types of weapons will lead to an increase in their value and will not allow America to respond effectively to the implementation of measures to develop nuclear weapons conducted by hostile states.
Overseas nuclear weapons experts advise the federal leadership to begin conducting small-scale experiments on the development of nuclear weapons, as Russia and China already do. They believe that such studies will create the necessary scientific and technical background for the further development of the US nuclear potential. Scientists also note that in the current increasingly complex conditions of reducing global security, a key factor is the emerging asymmetry of nuclear deterrence objectives implemented by the United States and its opponents. It is emphasized that while America strives to protect its citizens, the achieved economic level and national institutions, its opponents put the need to achieve a leading position in the world at the center. Therefore, American leaders must work out concrete defensive measures of an active and passive nature, which will help to negate the advantages of countries opposing the United States and NATO.
Over the past six years, the leadership of the Kremlin, experts emphasize, carried out an invasion of two countries, the last of which was Ukraine. Russia constantly violates its arms control obligations and seeks to enhance the role of nuclear weapons in ensuring its national security by actively modernizing its strategic nuclear forces and creating new types of nuclear weapons. At the same time, the United States continues to be the only country that does not develop its nuclear potential. Therefore, scientists believe the White House needs to pay serious attention to strengthening the SNF in order to better fit the realities of the 21st century.
V61 nuclear bombs remain in the territory of European NATO countries. Photos from www.natocouncil.ca
AMERICA IMPROVES TACTICAL NUCLEAR WEAPONS
Recently, experts from the Heritage Foundation, one of Pentagon’s leading think tanks, conducted a study of the tactical nuclear potential of the United States and concluded that Washington’s position in this area has been overly weak. To date, the Pentagon has taken out from Europe almost 90% of its tactical nuclear bombs (TNB) B-61, located in Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany, Italy and Turkey. This is the only type of tactical nuclear weapons remaining in the US Armed Forces nuclear arsenal. True, these bombs have several modifications, the number of which, in accordance with the decision of the White House administration to extend the life of the B-61 bombs to 20 – 30 years, should be reduced to one, which will be the new B61-12 bomb. These bombs, which, as planned, will arrive in Europe by 2020, will already be full-fledged precision weapons. Thus, according to the degree of threat to the Russian Federation, they can actually be equated with US ICBMs. At the same time, the delivery time to their targets is less, and the effectiveness of the fight against such weapons of Russian missile defense systems is close to zero. Pentagon leaders believe that replacing obsolete tactical nuclear bombs, which have been in service with the US military since 1968, will significantly increase the strike power of American troops.
According to the Pentagon, the United States and the countries of the North Atlantic Alliance are extremely interested in maintaining America’s nuclear presence in Europe, since these weapons ensure the unity of NATO members.
The exact number of US nuclear bombs in Europe is unknown. But, according to calculations of some American specialists, their number is about 500 units. From 160 to 200, such ammunition is deployed at ten US military bases in the listed NATO countries. In the year 2000 such bases were 125. The remaining 300 nuclear bombs are stored in the United States. The power of these bombs, depending on the modification, ranges from a few tenths to several hundred kilotons.
According to preliminary estimates, the Pentagon planned to allocate 61 billion dollars to the Pentagon for upgrading the B-2012 bombs. However, the US Department of Defense received 8,1 billion for these purposes in the 2013 fiscal year, of which 11 billion is planned to be spent on “extending the service life” of the data. bombs, and the remaining billion is supposed to be spent on adapting them for arming the new X-NUMX fighter-bombers of the F-10 generation, which will replace the multi-purpose F-5 fighter-guns in service. The new B35-4 bombs will be installed on the B-16 and B-61 strategic bombers, as well as on the above tactical aircraft.
Experts from the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) note that the planned significant increase in US TNW capacity is not fully in line with US and NATO commitments to reduce the role of nuclear weapons in Europe. They also point out that Pentagon’s actions to develop tactical nuclear weapons directly contradict the US nuclear strategy adopted in 2010, which unequivocally states that any programs to extend the service life of nuclear weapons cannot become the cause of the "emergence of new military capabilities" of the United States armed forces.
FAS experts say that the new B61-12 controlled tactical nuclear bombs, which are to appear in Europe by 2020, will significantly increase the number of targets that the Pentagon can attack from NATO military bases. Improving the accuracy of hitting these warheads at a target will significantly reduce their power, which makes their combat use extremely convenient, since in this case the amount of radioactive fallout can be significantly reduced.
At present, the White House wants in every possible way to get Russia to accept an agreement on the complete elimination of tactical nuclear weapons. However, the Russian side opposes this turn of events. The fact is that, according to a number of American and international experts, at the present stage the ratio of the usual US and Russian forces lies within the range from 12: 1 to 60: 1. In the absence of both sides of the TNW and the equality of the number of ICBMs, this can give America an absolute military superiority over Russia in one or another local conflict. The superiority of the United States in high-precision weapons and unmanned aerial vehicles, including those carrying high-precision weapons, as well as the extensive experience gained over the past 10 years in conducting contact-free wars, can make America in conventional clashes an absolutely invincible adversary.
As Gary Seymour, the administrative director of the US National Security Council, recently stated, there are large disparities in the number of tactical nuclear weapons in Russia and America. “The United States has very few tactical nuclear weapons. They are only a few hundred units. And we cannot fully rely on these weapons when it comes to European security. Russia, on the contrary, owns a large number of tactical nuclear forces. Their number is many thousands of nuclear weapons of this class. The Kremlin leadership claims that such a number of TNW is necessary for it to counter the superiority of the NATO countries in conventional forces, ”the director announced.
The statement of Seymour, according to the experts of the Heritage Foundation, is a demonstration of the fact that while the US reduced the importance of its strategic and tactical nuclear weapons, Russia is acting in the opposite direction. In practice, Moscow continues to invest heavily in the development of new types of tactical nuclear weapons and intends to use it widely as a tool for de-escalating armed conflicts, the parties to which must immediately suspend hostilities under the threat of the possible use of tactical nuclear weapons against them.
TNK AND MOSCOW POSITION
The White House, the Pentagon, the CIA and the American nuclear weapons experts constantly state that they do not have accurate data on the number of tactical nuclear weapons possessed by Russia, since the Kremlin keeps this information a great secret.
According to Pentagon estimates, today the Russian Federation is approximately 10 times the stock of such weapons of the United States in Europe in the number of TNW. More than 10 years ago, some American experts claimed that at the beginning of 1991, the Russian Armed Forces were in service with up to 22 thousand tactical nuclear weapons. These included nuclear aircraft bombs, Luna, Tochka and Oka tactical missiles equipped with nuclear warheads, anti-submarine and anti-ship tactical nuclear weapons, nuclear missiles of air defense systems and missile defense, nuclear mines and nuclear artillery shells. Much of this arsenal was located at Russian military bases in the Warsaw Pact countries.
At the beginning of the 1990s, the Kremlin leadership announced a decision to unilaterally reduce tactical nuclear weapons by 75% and their withdrawal from Eastern Europe to the territory of the Russian Federation. These weapons are currently deployed in Russia. Although the United States, in flagrant violation of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), not only continues to hold its tactical nuclear weapons in Europe, but is also taking active measures to modernize both itself and its carriers and delivery vehicles. It should be noted that tactical nuclear weapons, which are located only on the territory of Russia, do not pose any threat to the continental part of America. On the contrary, US tactical nuclear weapons located in NATO countries are capable of striking a large number of various-purpose objects located in the territory of the Russian Federation.
Earlier this year, experts of the Congressional Research Service (CRS) conducted assessments of the stock of tactical nuclear weapons that Russia currently has. According to experts, obtaining accurate data on the number of tactical nuclear weapons in Russia was significantly hampered by the lack of reliable data on the number of tactical nuclear forces that were in service with the Russian troops and stored in warehouses in 1991, information on the rates of destruction of tactical nuclear warheads with the nuclear initiative of the presidents of the United States and Russia, and information about how many nuclear warheads removed from deployed weapons systems, the Defense Ministry is really planning to destroy.
According to analysts at the end of 80 and at the beginning of 90, of the last century, the USSR Armed Forces deployed from 15 to 25 thousands of tactical nuclear weapons. Throughout the 90-s, the Russian leadership claimed that the annual rate of destruction of tactical nuclear warheads is 2 thousand units per year. However, many American and international experts have placed such doubts on such statements, arguing that the Kremlin did not have the financial means or technical capabilities to do this. In this regard, the established agreements between Moscow and Washington on the deadlines for the destruction of Russian TNW were constantly postponed and, as American experts believe, this process has not been completed yet. Although in the 2010 year, the Russian leadership announced that it had destroyed 75% of its tactical nuclear weapons in the arsenal of the SV, Air Force and Navy.
However, due to the refusal of the United States to withdraw all types of TNW from Europe and their plans to further improve the tactical component of their nuclear power, Russia suspended the implementation of measures to eliminate tactical nuclear weapons. And now this problem remains unresolved.
According to recent estimates by CRS experts, at present Russia can have up to 4 thousands of tactical nuclear warheads ready for immediate use. This number does not include combat units intended for destruction and stored in military stores, the total number of which at the present stage is about 50 units.
American experts using various methods for assessing Russia's tactical nuclear potential give different data, but most of them agree that at the present stage the Russian Armed Forces retain a significant amount of tactical means of nuclear attack and seriously threaten the security of European NATO countries. At the same time, the Kremlin is not going to disarm and negotiate with America on further steps to destroy tactical nuclear weapons.
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