On the arrival of Tefft US ambassador to Russia: the prospects of the Maidan in Russia
By and large, the fact that the “Maidan” specialist should come to Russia was clear a long time ago. Nobody hid the fact that the next candidate after Ukraine for his Maidan will be Russia.
The fact that they sent Tefft testifies to the fact that there are not so many specialists working with Eurasia at the State Department. Moreover, Teft checked the frame itself - back in 1989, he worked as deputy head of the department of state in the Soviet Union. There, in fact, his further career was defined - Deputy Ambassador to the Russian Federation from 1996 to 1999 a year. Then the ambassador in Lithuania, Georgia and, finally, with 2009 and on the most Euromaidan - the ambassador in Kiev.
Actually, it was John Tefft who was the driving belt of Euromaidan in Kiev. Namely, its elite part - because for a successful coup, it is necessary not only to take advantage of the mass discontent of the population, but also to form within the ruling elites a front that will seize power. Work with elites is the main task of the US ambassadors.
Plus, the ambassador to Russia is also a kind of informal curator of the embassies in the Eurasian republics - Kazakhstan, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan and Armenia.
Considering his experience in the “seven bankers” period in Russia, it can be assumed that citizen Tefft has established contacts with Russian elitist people. Georgia, Lithuania and Ukraine, where he worked, are a kind of springboard for exporting “color revolutions” to Russia. Georgia - to the Caucasus, Lithuania - to the Kaliningrad region. Ukraine has already become a factor of instability for the entire European part of Russia.
It seems that we are dealing with a system call on Russia. Given the (albeit unsuccessful) experience of Bolotnaya in Moscow, we will deal with provocations of regional “Maidans”.
In addition, we should not forget the fragility of the newly created Eurasian Economic Union and the CSTO. In fact, the outer contour of security has not yet been secured, and Kyrgyzstan is next in line with an unstable guest-worker-oriented economy, Tajikistan bordering on Afghanistan and Armenia at war.
Actually, when 10 years ago passed the first wave of "Maidan", citizen Tefft worked as assistant secretary of state for Europe and Eurasia. Therefore, most likely, we are dealing with a multi-level combination to undermine Russia.
Economic level. The crisis of the oil and gas economy and a blow to the Moscow middle class
The United States, regardless of EU support, will deploy the “Sanctions” project, which aims to hit the oil and gas sector of the Russian economy.
They will either succeed in bringing down the Russian oil and gas industry specifically, or they will be forced to collapse in prices on commodity exchanges. The second scenario threatens the catastrophic economy of the United States, but they simply have no choice - falling into the abyss of national default, the United States is dragging the entire global trade system there.
Therefore, whether we like it or not, it’s better not to rely on the oil and gas model of the economy.
The fall of the oil and gas pens will lead to the curtailment of the Moscow Middle Class project - and several hundred thousand managers, financiers, designers, photographers, journalists, designers and creators will simply end up on the street. Because these sectors of the metropolitan economy are provided exclusively by the unfair distribution of super-profits. First of all, they will get rid of creative ballast - and these people have nowhere to go, because Moscow has long ceased to be an industrial city.
Consequently, it is specifically in the capital that a wide stratum of potential participants of the “Maidan” is formed. They cannot arrange anything serious by themselves - but they can force the central authorities to give up everything and deal only with Moscow. As it was with the Swamp.
Eurasian level. Unstable allies
Despite the fact that both the economic and the defense unions have been created, almost all of the military security and economic support are borne by Russia.
Neither Belarus nor Kazakhstan are investing in military bases or infrastructure projects in Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Armenia and Transdniestria.
In the case of provocations of its “Maidan” or full-fledged wars in the Eurasian republics, Russia is torn apart on several fronts. And it’s not particularly necessary to rely on the allies, only to the extent that it affects their interests.
And, as the experience of the civil war in Ukraine shows, - if the military circuit is provided, then with civilian technology a complete failure. In fact, our administration is of little use for work in mobilization conditions and, most importantly, for work in advance.
Regional level. Subjects of the federation without a real economy
Shrinking the economy based on oil and gas rent will inevitably aggravate the contradictions between the regions.
Compensating for the difference in the level of development of the regions by subsidies and targeted inflows from the state budget, on the one hand, corrupted the local elites, and on the other, it allowed to preserve the residual appearance of socialism.
The state, forced to put out fires of civil wars around the perimeter, receive and place refugees, rapidly re-equip and maneuver, cannot afford such a model of economy. Consequently, it will be necessary to sacrifice either the parasitic elites or the rudiments of socialism. And if you take half-half-solutions, you can lose both and still get discontent.
From the point of view of the state it is better to sacrifice elites. Because the regional elites parasitizing on the Moscow-Region-Moscow financial transactions will prefer to provoke local riots and Maidan, but will not want to change the economic model.
In fact, a set of contradictions in Russia and around the perimeter is already provided. The arrival of Tefft as ambassador means that the United States views the Ukrainian experience as successful and worthy of repetition across Russia.
The only thing that remains for the “Europe and Eurasia” specialist is to form groups of loyal elites at the Moscow and regional level. What he probably will do.
However, in order not to fall into the heresy of “all-falsification”, it is worth noting that the set of risks that confront the Russian Federation opens up the possibility of becoming Russia.
That is, to transfer the economy to the mobilization regime and force the industrialization of the 21st century. Reformat society - by launching social elevators and eliminating the resulting bureaucratic-business caste. The state is to get rid of globalist illusions of financial liberalism and finally regain genuine sovereignty. Because if all of this is not done, then next time the ambassador will be sent from the State Department, not the ambassador.
- Semen Uralov
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