Military threats and retaliation are usually seen as more or less likely in projection into the distant future. Recent events in Ukraine have led to talk about the reality of a regional armed conflict with a forecast of its expansion into the entire European theater of operations. This was announced at the All-Russian scientific-practical conference "Actual problems of protection and security", which gathered experts for the seventeenth time at the Admiral Naval Academy Fleet Soviet Union N. G. Kuznetsova.
Opening the discussion, Admiral Nikolai Maksimov, head of the renowned military training center of the Navy, stressed that the strategy of guided crises and conflicts implemented by the United States and NATO was a geopolitical challenge to the beginning of the 21st century. Based on its financial, economic and military-technical capabilities, the West stubbornly follows the model of a unipolar world pattern, moreover, it is trying to strengthen its geopolitical position. To this end, NATO is constantly updating its arsenal of means of destruction and offensive technologies. The methods of conducting psychological operations and informational confrontation, aiming at overthrowing unwanted US governments, are rapidly developing. Under these conditions, the activities of international organizations, such as the UN and the OSCE, are becoming less and less effective. The result - large-scale armed conflicts and bloodshed in various regions: Afghanistan and Iraq, Egypt and Syria. In the past six months, a similar scenario is being implemented in Ukraine. Information warfare becomes the forerunner of the “hot,” said Vasily Burenok, president of the Russian Academy of Rocket and Artillery Sciences.
Networks for extremists, funds from "bugs"
"Lessons of Ukraine" named the president of the Academy of Geopolitical Problems Konstantin Sivkov his report. In his opinion, the scenario played out there is another link in the chain of failures of US foreign policy and its allies. Neither in Afghanistan, nor in Iraq, nor in Libya, nor in Syria did they achieve what they expected. The “Arab Spring” did not end at all as it appeared to the United States. At least forces unfriendly to the West came to power in Egypt and Libya. And Syria is not going to surrender to the gangs of the world behind the scenes.
“The question of who is the boss in the world will be decided in the Arctic”
At the origin of the Ukrainian events - the plans of NATO strategists to turn the country into a buffer state, into a springboard for military "overhanging" over Russia. But the "writers" again miscalculated. The return of Crimea emasculates a significant part of these plans, Sivkov believes.
At the same time, our political elite should draw serious conclusions from the confrontation on Independence. In particular, the authorities must be ready for active counteraction against hostile psychological attacks, for effective struggle by means of mass communications. After all, protest attitudes in society arise not only due to foreign influence. The domestic political establishment urgently needs a constructive and open dialogue with the opposition, no matter how inconvenient it may seem to the stuck in the routine of the leaders of the system parties and movements. With meaningful and patient work, the energy of the protest electorate can and should be channeled in a constructive direction, intensify healthy opposition forces and rigidly cut off the radical component.
General Director of the NGO special materials, RAS Corresponding Member Mikhail Silnikov analyzed the chronicle of the confrontation in Kiev and the actions of Ukrainian special forces in terms of ensuring public safety. His report was accompanied by live video footage from the “not for print” category. Distraught - this is evident in the faces of the militants, if they are not covered with masks - the crowd cracks down on the unarmed employees of the "Berkut". Obsolete protective ammunition does not protect against incendiary bottles, improvised explosive devices. Militiamen flare up like torches, fall under blows, are killed by the bullets of unknown snipers.
The sad result is predetermined not only by treason, but also by the fact that law enforcement agencies could not counterpose adequate tactics and technical countermeasures to extremist methods. The police officers in Kiev did not even try to operate with small, maneuverable detachments, to regroup forces in a timely manner, to use modern special means from the arsenal of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine. Water cannons, special elongated sticks and shields of various geometries made of heavy-duty non-combustible materials, immobilizing nets, ultrasonic radiators - all of these types weapons non-lethal actions are capable of neutralizing participants in mass riots, no matter how aggressive the crowd. Such equipment, as well as the methods of its service and operational use, is well known and has been repeatedly used in the West.
Intellectual challenges in the information space are perhaps the main global danger. It is not by chance that the United States declared this area one of the priorities for its armed forces. The development of this area was described in detail in the report of the Deputy Head of the Military Academy of Communications, Major General Yevgeny Kharchenko. He devoted a speech to the problems of ensuring the security of special-purpose communication systems. The speaker recalled that only in March of this year, the websites of Rossiyskaya Gazeta, Channel One, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, the presidential administration, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, organizations providing the Crimean referendum, the Supreme Council of the autonomous republic were subjected to cyber attacks. And if in the Crimea "worked" from the territory of the United States, then for all other objects - from Ukraine.
The balance of power in cyberspace is not in our favor. The American Eridium telecommunications system includes 82 satellite, providing uninterrupted communication with every soldier anywhere in the world. We have a similar network only unfolds. It provides for the presence of four echelons: sea, land, air and space. However, due to the transfer of heavy carrier launches from Baikonur to Plesetsk, the launch of the first satellite was postponed until December.
Representatives of the St. Petersburg Institute of Informatics and Automation RAS complete the picture with a story about the so-called bookmarks in imported equipment and radio components. Invisible "bugs" are able to play the role of intelligence, merging valuable information to the enemy. And they can simply “sleep”, waiting for a command, but after receiving it, cause a technological catastrophe. The ideal way to get rid of this danger is to completely abandon imports, to establish their own production with the strictest secrecy and protection against hostile encroachment at all enterprises included in the industrial cycle of manufacturing of high-speed computers. While this is not there, it is necessary to constantly improve the systems of warning and repelling cyber threats.
Guarding the Energy Cake
However tangible the threat from the Western strategic direction might be, the situation in Ukraine should hardly be considered a global contradiction, having no other solution than the military one. By all indications, this is a typical regional conflict, despite the economic background associated with international gas trade. It would be a mistake to exclude the possibility of escalation of clashes in the Ukrainian southeast into a full-scale war, but it is even more dangerous to abandon efforts at a diplomatic settlement. There are all the prerequisites for it, and there are no intractable contradictions between the main players in the Eastern European region.
The military-political situation in the northern strategic direction, including the Arctic zone of Russian jurisdiction, looks completely different. Here the sources and driving force of escalation of tensions is the desire of all participating states to seize as large pieces of energy pie as possible, covered with ice crust and polar waters. By some estimates, 58 percent of prospected and about 22 percent of potential hydrocarbon reserves are concentrated here. And the ice shell is huge reserves of fresh water, the shortage of which the world is already beginning to feel. Considering the inevitable depletion of deposits in other areas of the globe, it will become obvious that in the Arctic, compromise based on concessions and mutual recognition of rights is unlikely.
Leading Inspector General of the Russian Armed Forces at the Mikhailovskaya Military Artillery Academy, Lieutenant General Vladimir Sukhoruchenko, devoted his report to the international legal and military aspects of activities in the region. In particular, he noted that the requirement for Russia to recognize its territorial waters, through which the Northern Sea Route passes, free for navigation outside our jurisdiction directly contradicts the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, recognized by 159 countries and the European Union. The United States, however, has not ratified this international document and is currently muddying the waters the most. It's not possible to reach a good agreement. While politicians and scientists are arguing about who owns the underwater ridges of Lomonosov and Mendeleev, three American military commands have launched activities in the region. There is no doubt about the technical equipment of these forces: "Arsenals" with "Tomahawks", underwater and flying drones on board, missile defense ships, strike space systems. We are just beginning to strengthen ourselves in the Arctic, restoring the infrastructure and military installations on the polar islands that were ruined after the collapse of the USSR.
Vyacheslav Trushenkov, representative of the Marine Underwater Weapon Concern, told about the possibility of an asymmetric response to this threat. Such can be mining, first of all - in our territorial waters. With the length of the sea border of the Russian Federation in 39 thousands of kilometers is an effective solution. Mines, even obsolete, from the Second World War, continue to remain a significant threat to the enemy’s submarine forces. With the latest technology, the use of means of remote production, which provide secrecy, will be able to move the military lines from the shores of Russia. At the same time, of course, we should not forget about the creation of an effective mine detection system in the near seas, based both on traditional equipment (ships-minesweepers and special helicopters) and on innovative ones, which include uninhabited underwater vehicles, as well as ekranoplans - almost imperceptible radar flying platforms. Their production was collapsed under Yeltsin, but the design documentation was preserved, to restore production, only funds and political will are needed.
Autonomous uninhabited underwater vehicles (AUV) are vital to ensure the safety of our gas and oil pipelines, offshore platforms for the extraction of hydrocarbons, tankers with oil and liquefied gas, nuclear icebreakers, said Vladimir Potapov, representative of the North-Western Branch of the Academy of Military Sciences. The ANPA “Manta”, developed in Russia, develops speeds of up to five knots, can be in autonomous navigation for five to six days and carry four or six submarine missiles, to perform reconnaissance, observation, and communication functions.
To use it, it is necessary to equip round-the-clock command posts on tankers, icebreakers, gas production platforms, coastal infrastructure facilities (fuel depots, gas terminals). AUV should provide long-term operation under the ice, at low temperatures and in shallow water. And in the light of new geopolitical realities, it will be necessary to take into account the specifics of work in the Black Sea, where it is possible for the enemy to use combat swimmers and trained animals.
It is important for the world community to realize that protection against military and terrorist encroachments of such structures as underwater gas pipelines is a collective matter. With their enormous extent, the protection of the areas lying in the territorial waters and the surrounding areas of the World Ocean should be carried out by each interested state.
For all the importance, urgency and diversity of the tasks facing the Russian Navy, not the last criterion is the cost of the conceived programs, said Andrei Zemlyanov from the 1 Central Research Institute of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation. Depending on their purpose, each series of ships was previously designed and produced separately. Meanwhile, often the fundamental difference was in the established weapons. It is possible to create flexible means of forceful opposition and significantly reduce the prices for their production, if we follow the path of creating modular ships. In Germany, Denmark, other countries such projects are being implemented. We also started work. The modules can be either stationary (air defense, radar reconnaissance), or interchangeable container (anti-mine or anti-submarine weapons).
Last February, at the Zelenodolsk shipyard, the patrol ship of the 22160 project “Vasily Bykov” was laid, adapted for the installation of modular weapons. It is designed for autonomous navigation from 60 to 90 days and stay in remote areas up to two years. Detachments of such patrol ships, having on board multi-purpose helicopters, rocket and space weapons, will remove some of the load from the ocean fleet.
The general problem for the Navy - the creation of an interspecific integrated complex for the coverage of the surface situation at any point in the oceans, was devoted by the Director General of the Granit-Electron concern Yury Podoplekin. The new ships of the 11-43, 11-44, 11-64, and NPS projects of the 949A project have already been adapted for receiving and transmitting signals from the space reconnaissance system, which, in the interests of the Navy, has been deployed to the Lotos station.
Major-General Sergei Bakaneyev, head of the Mikhailovsky Military Artillery Academy, noted the low manning of the troops with new modern means of control, destruction, reconnaissance and support for conducting network-centric wars - only 15 percent of the need. But the tasks are serious. In the field of management, in the coming months, it is necessary to introduce elements of network centering, to reduce control cycles in real time. Till 2020, the analysis of the course of hostilities should be taken offline. Finally, before the 2025, fully launch the network-centric artillery control model.
From the means of destruction, the speaker identified the latest models of cannon artillery for the Ground Forces: self-propelled MAU-152 self-propelled or wheeled undercarriage used in conjunction with transport-loading and control and testing machines and simulators, 120-mm self-propelled mortars and others. The intelligence subsystem based on the use of a single information space, in which we lag behind the western countries to the greatest extent, acquires particular importance in the network-centric model of warfare. For the full implementation of the state armaments program, the output of its components should be increased by two and a half times already by 2020. The speaker cited examples of successful domestic developments in this field: the Zoo-1М radar system, the reconnaissance and operational complex of the firing (launch) artillery positions of the Yastreb-AV artillery and the Aistenok-M mortars. The acoustic (sound-warming) complex Penicillin increases the effectiveness of conducting reconnaissance by two to two and a half times.
A representative of VNIITransmash spoke about a promising high-precision tank weapon. The effectiveness of a shot from it is six to eight times higher than that of regular ammunition. In promising high-precision tank weapons complexes, information is entered into the projectile already on the trajectory. The target is destroyed by the first shot.
The tactics of wars of the XXI century with the use of sabotage groups capable of provoking a global catastrophe, having blown up nuclear power plants, chemical plants, military warehouses, threats of terrorism and natural disasters dictate the need to create a combined system of protection of such facilities. In order for these measures to be adequate to potential hazards, it is necessary to introduce categorization by significance, the degree of risk magnitude from one (local) to seven (planetary scale) points. Such work is already underway, said an employee of the Institute of Engineering A. A. Blagonravova, Corresponding Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences Nikolai Makhutov.
In the Russian Academy of Sciences and the Ministry of Emergency Situations, models have been developed for which risk parameters are calculated, and each object is assigned its own hazard index, depending on which type of protection is selected. It can be tough, where the spread of damaging factors is hampered by bunkers, containers, etc., functional, in which the regulation of processes goes through a complex of various means, natural (for example, natural obstacles or a zone of alienation around the object) and, finally, combined most preferred. On the basis of extensive scientific work, modeling processes in three-dimensional space, the publication of the fundamental work “Security of Russia” has begun, in which there will be a 44 volume. Already released study "Natural Hazards of Russia."
Our review presents the most acute, conceptual points of view expressed at the 17th All-Russian Scientific and Practical Conference "Actual Problems of Protection and Security." In total, about a thousand scientists, engineers, designers, heads of enterprises of the military-industrial complex, professors and teachers of higher educational institutions, senior and senior officers of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, and other law enforcement agencies took part in the plenary sessions.
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