Recently, in the flow of propaganda zakazuhi, coming from the Ukrainian journalists and "experts", no one even tries to assess the real state of affairs. There is no clear review of finance or the state of the economy, not to mention a system analysis of the situation. Let's try to fill this vacuum a little.I have already submitted a short thesis version of this report, and now I have filled it with facts and figures.
Financial risks
Financial dynamics is quite simple and predictable. The monthly negative balance of foreign trade exceeds 2 billion dollars (and, since exports have a strong downward trend, the trade deficit tends to increase). The monthly outflow of investment / banking capital is about another two billion dollars (where are all these European investors with suitcases of money that various Karasevs and Yermolayevs have promised Ukrainians to?).
More than a dozen banks on the verge of bankruptcy, with the temporary administration of the National Bank of Ukraine introduced. Even more banks with critical dominance of toxic assets and lack of working capital, for which bankruptcy is a matter of the near future.
Of the 17 billions of gold reserves of approximately 15 billions, these are “securities”, debt obligations of Ukraine, held on the balance of the NBU and other state banks (car loans). The actual currency on the NBU balance is only about two billion (if not less, the Ministry of Finance data have not been updated for a long time), that is, to ensure the month of the trade deficit (and this data is already a couple of weeks, so it may well be already less).
The National Bank of Ukraine was barely able to pay 75 million dollars in coupon payments on the latest Russian loan, with a delay of several days.
The general situation with the banking system is also deplorable. In just five months of this year, the NBU introduced temporary administrations in a half dozen banks, and in several large ones, such as Forum Bank (which recently declared itself bankrupt) or Brokbusinessbank. The banks that jointly owned assets for 40 bln. UAH stopped working As a result, the National Bank was forced to allocate a loan to the Deposit Guarantee Fund of more than 4 billion UAH - the fund simply ran out of money to pay off depositors.
From January to May, Ukrainian banks lost 86 billions of deposits, or almost 20% of all deposits held in banks. The assets of banks also decreased accordingly. On May 1, they decreased by 3,8%, or 51 billion UAH, to 1329 billion UAH. Since the beginning of the year, about 20 billion dollars (240 billion hryvnias) have been withdrawn abroad.
The banking system of Ukraine in January-May 2014 of the year received 10,4 billion UAH of losses (for the same period last year, the profit of the banking system amounted to 1,1 billion UAH).
Economic risks
There is a decrease in economic activity. Many enterprises of the industrial Southeast are damaged and / or do not work, including outside the combat zone. Exports fall, respectively, and production is unclaimed and stops. The number of unemployed is growing and tax revenues are falling.
Instead of searching for markets for products and concluding international contracts, the Ukrainian government is focused on military hysteria and Russophobic rhetoric. And without Russia’s help, it’s simply impossible to get out of the economic ditch at this stage — European countries and companies have not entered into a single significant contract with Ukrainian partners for a few months, have not opened a single market for Ukrainian goods, and have not placed a single industrial production order.
The trade deficit may well worsen from minus 19 billions of dollars (2013 a year) to minus 33-35 billions.
The decline in industrial production is obvious (in the first four months of 2014, the decline was 5,3%, the size of the further decline today is difficult to predict). It began even before the outbreak of hostilities in Ukraine, and was mainly associated with the process of "European integration", accompanied by deterioration of relations with the countries of the Customs Union (the Russian Federation in the first place). Although the reasons for this recession are some of the negative conjuncture of some markets, and the growing obsolescence of the industrial base of Ukraine, which has not been modernized for a long time. The war only aggravated the pre-existing trends.
The number of unprofitable enterprises in Ukraine increased from 37% in 2012 to 51% in the second quarter of 2014, and by the end of the year a further increase in the number of unprofitable enterprises to 57-58% is predicted.
The National Bank of Ukraine reported a huge loss to Ukrainian enterprises in the first quarter of 2014. They grew 5,5 times. At the same time, the profit of Ukrainian enterprises grew only 2,2 times. As a result, the negative balance (profit minus loss) reached almost 11 billion dollars (128,5 billion hryvnia).
According to the Russian Railways, freight transportation (an important indicator of business activity) on border crossings with Ukraine decreased by 1,5 times. Passenger traffic between Ukraine and Russia in June also dropped sharply - by 50-70%.
The situation in agriculture, apparently, is also deplorable. According to my data, the sowing campaign took place on 70-72% of the planned indicators (both because of the lack of seasonal loans to producers of agricultural products, and because of problems with the availability of fuel and lubricants). Indirectly, the statement of the acting minister of the agrarian and industrial complex of the freedom fighter Igor Shvayka also indirectly points to the catastrophe of the situation, that they conceal information about the harvest "as a strategic and military secret." He stated that "this information will be closed, as information on the provision of food during martial law is information with limited access."
Social risks
Rising unemployment, reducing real wages, reducing the purchasing power of the population, depleting savings, compulsory deductions for the maintenance of punitive detachments and the construction of the idiotic "moats of Taruta" and "walls of Kolomoisky" - all this is the obvious reality of Ukraine.
Analyst Narek Avakian points out that inflation in annual terms since the beginning of 2014 has already amounted to more than 30%, a drop in the standard of living of the population by about 25%, a fall in real incomes by almost 20% (to the average 250 dollars).
In the housing and utilities sector, the economic drama has been rapidly unfolding over the last couple of months. The population has already owed 13 billion hryvnia for utility services, and with the growth of tariffs in all directions, this amount will only grow.
Since May 1, gas prices for the population have increased by 40%. The National Energy Regulatory Commission (NERC) increased the electricity tariff for the population by 1-2014% from 10 June 40, depending on the volume of its consumption. Since July 1, water tariffs have increased by an average of 84%, payment for the use of sewage systems by 105%.
In general, the costs of utility payments have almost doubled over this time, and new increases are planned in the near future.
Plus, thousands of specialists are mobilized forcibly, they are alienated from productive activities in favor of destructive activities, families are deprived of their breadwinners.
At the same time, unemployment among the economically active population rose to 8,8%. Vinnitskaya (10,9%), Volyn (9,8%), Zhytomyr (11,1%), Transcarpathian (10,5%), Poltava (10,6%), Rivne (10,8%), Ternopil (11,1%) and Khmelnitskaya (10,5%) and CHmelnitskaya (XNUMX%), Khmelnytsky (XNUMX%), and Khmelnytsky (XNUMX%), and Khmelnytska (XNUMX%), and Khmelnytsky (XNUMX%), and Khmelnytsky (XNUMX%), and Khmelnytsky %).
At the same time Avakov actually completes the destruction of the Ministry of Internal Affairs. His statements that every police officer should take part in a punitive operation against Novorossia, force the last adequate criminal investigation professionals to quit (who did not manage to quit during the police harassment, which was launched during and after euromaidan). And this opens up the broadest prospects for the further growth of crime (I would request statistics on flag crime for the last three to four months, but I suspect that it is totally falsified).
Energy risks
With gas, everything is clear and obvious - it was blocked. And the reverse will not help (for a variety of reasons, ranging from a direct ban on reverse by Gazprom and ending with the requirements of prepayment by Romania and Slovakia in the absence of money from the Ukrainian government). Therefore, the existing reserves and own production will be enough for a maximum until January, after which the Ukrainians will have to heat the coldest part of the winter with firewood (and for some reason I have no doubt that Poroshenko and Yatsenyuk will be warm at home).
According to my calculations (set out in a separate document), gas reserves in storage facilities and gas of own production will suffice in the “best” case (with the most severe savings and further reduction in industrial production) until about the beginning of January. And it should be borne in mind that most of the gas stored in the storage facilities formally still belongs to Gazprom, since it was not paid for this gas.
At the same time, the plans of the Ukrainian government to save on disconnection of industrial enterprises from gas consumption will greatly “please” producers, and will lead to losses for these enterprises and further deterioration of the economic situation.
The situation with oil and petroleum products is not much better (it is not clear why this issue, unlike gas, is constantly silenced). Meanwhile, Kolomoisky merges technical oil from oil pipelines, which suggests that things are also deplorable to oil (and indirectly hints that Kolomoisky is not going to play for the long term).
In addition to gas and oil problems are also with the nuclear power industry of Ukraine. Over the past few days, the 3 unit with American nuclear fuel has been abnormally shut down. One unit in Zaporizhia and immediately 2 in the South-Ukrainian NPP. And stocks of TVELs came to an end in early May.
Political risks
The rejection of the Ukrainian far right in Europe is not news. But if earlier they were considered marginal, then lately they have “glorified” Ukraine in full. Pogroms of embassies, abductions and harassment of journalists, harassment of freedom of speech are the ordinariness of modern Ukraine.
Plus, the policy of the genocide of the residents of Donbass, the shelling of peaceful cities, the refusals to create humanitarian corridors, the use of weapons of mass destruction against the civilian population (incendiary projectiles and multiple rocket launchers refer to arms mass destruction) - all this is gradually becoming known to wide sections of the European and world population. And from this the new Ukrainian authorities will never wash off.
In Europe, the calls for condemnation and ostracism of the Ukrainian authorities are getting louder, the rhetoric of speeches is changing rapidly, and many politicians who have recently supported euromaidan are now carefully distancing themselves from their participation in it and responsibility for its consequences. It is likely that further cooling of relations with the EU (especially if the European Union has problems with gas supplies from Ukraine), up to complete international isolation.
In addition, in the last elections to the European Parliament, the percentage of “euro-skeptics” who had passed to it significantly increased, and next year these same forces may receive significant representation in the parliaments of leading European countries, including Germany, Great Britain and France.
Security risks
According to the same Americans (from whom it is strange to hear, given their own history), the state should have a monopoly on violence. The Ukrainian government is not even trying to implement this principle in practice. And I’m not talking about the “separatists-unionists” of New Russia - they are just in many ways just a reaction to the chaos in the rest of Ukraine. Ukraine was flooded with dozens of incomprehensible gangs — hundreds of self-defense, national guard, territorial self-defense battalions, groups of football fans — who obey only their masters, and neither the government, nor the Interior Ministry, nor the SBU control them.
And all these groups are equipped, armed and carry out activity, not guided by laws, but only by the interests and orders of their owners. Moreover, sluggish attempts by law enforcement agencies to put such groups in place regularly led to police accusations of “provocativeness” and “separatism”, as well as threats of physical violence or even violence itself (systematically left unpunished and sometimes even encouraged). to the passive distancing of residues of the Ministry of Internal Affairs from the processes taking place.
Security risks, in particular, find their expression in the separatist and overtly feudal actions of the Kolomoisky team, as well as in similar separatist sentiments in other regions.
At the same time, the picture is paradoxical for an external observer, when in essence for the same actions of some people they call them “heroes” and encourage them, while others call them “separatists” and “terrorists” and try to destroy them. “To friends — everything, to enemies — the law” - somewhere we have already heard all this.
But the matter is not even in justice and legality (although in them too), but in the fact that
a) no one in Ukraine can feel safe (even the people's deputy Pashinsky, who has his own "hundred of self-defense", was recently beaten by members of the rival hundred);
b) the private property of “non Maydanovtsy” is also not protected in any way, there are permanent raider seizures, including “legalized” (as the removal of vehicles for the needs of the ATO);
c) there is no working law enforcement system, no laws, no courts;
d) there is a caste of “oprichniki-untouchables” who are allowed everything, including violence and criminal offenses.
All of the above can not be considered favorable either for the welfare of citizens or for doing business (attracting capital).
Systemic risks
The main risks that actively influence all the others are the risks of loss of controllability. How can you improve the situation even in some direction, if no direction is really under the control of the government? The correct answer is no way.
From the point of view of cybernetics, there are two options for increasing the stability and controllability of the system. The first is the export of instability outside. This is exactly what the Kiev authorities tried to do by sending the most frostbitten and uncontrolled fighters of the Maidan to the "Eastern Front". Indeed, some of them were successfully disposed of (died), but this did not solve the general situation.
As recent events have shown, a significant part of the far right is still concentrated in Kiev, it does not want to go to war and is not going to, and continues to "stir up the water", constantly arranging various provocations. One gets the persistent impression that they are not sent to the east and are specifically protected for precisely these purposes - to maintain a high degree of instability in the Ukrainian capital. To whom it is profitable - you can guess from two times.
The second way to increase the manageability of the system is a sharp increase in the structure of the system, including through active investment in the development of its own elements. Russia did just that a few years ago, which was first threatened by its own internal separatism (and not only in Chechnya, but also in a number of other regions), but this was decided by actively investing in the development of problem regions.
But for such a solution requires significant resources. Russia had such resources and there are, Ukraine does not have such resources (as there is no effective crisis management).
Therefore, we can confidently predict a further reduction of the territory of Ukraine to the point where insignificant cash resources will be enough to maintain relative order in the remaining territory (by the way, with this analysis methodology, the more resources will be spent on an attempt to suppress Novorossiya, the less territory will remain under control of Kiev result).
In general, it is not possible to say exactly where it “blows”. It is torn where it is thin, and Ukraine is thin now everywhere. And, most likely, it is not so important which of the factors will formally become a catalyst for the collapse - if it starts, they will all begin to crumble like dominoes. The patient only rejects the only reasonable medicine (cooperation with the Russian Federation and other countries of the CU), therefore a collapse is inevitable.