The article "Why Putin rebelled against the United States" ("The Atlantic"; the source of translation is "InoSMI") David Graham, Senior Assistant Editor-in-Chief, cites some of Mr. McFaul's curious remarks.
The former ambassador to Russia believes that the Ukrainian crisis is a direct result of Putin’s actions. McFaul spoke at the Aspensky “festival of ideas”, which was held by “The Atlantic” and the Aspen Institute.
“Is this a new cold war? There are some similarities. This is the most powerful moment of confrontation since Gorbachev’s times, ”said McFaul. And he added: “This is a deeply tragic moment. It makes me think about that - and I know that the president is also thinking about it - that maybe we were naive in believing that a different relationship is possible with Russia. ”
The ex-ambassador notes that if Russia made the transition to democracy and the market faster, as Poland did, say, the situation could have looked different.
So - the USSR, empire, rollback to the past? Not.
“I don’t think that Putin is sitting and dreaming like a child about the return of the Russian empire,” says McFaul. “The events of twenty years ago cannot explain what is happening today if we cooperated two years ago,” the former ambassador notes.
Further, Mr. McFaul identifies two major events that strengthened Putin in the opinion that the United States is irreconcilably opposed to him and even "are determined to expel him from power."
The first event is protests against Putin at the start of 2012. The Kremlin is known to have accused McFaul of organizing them. However, McFaul himself does not want to say that it all started from those days. "But it was not the end stories“Because Putin is a great pragmatist who is able to divide phenomena into different categories,” said McFaul. - He will say: "I understand that you are trying to overthrow the regimes in Syria, in Iran and with us," but will still work on concluding commercial transactions or cooperate with America on the chemical issue weapons».
The second event occurred this winter. The US government took part in the Ukrainian crisis, trying to mediate in the transfer of power, when suddenly Yanukovych suddenly fled the country.
“Putin thought that the Americans had fooled him once again. Then he said: "Everything, I do not care what you think of me." This, according to McFaul, suggests that Putin has taken a structuralist position. He believed that the American strategy set a goal to weaken him at every turn and refused to make any attempts to reckon with Obama as an active force in politics. Such a decision McFaul considers purely emotional.
"We are in the habit of explaining the actions of individuals and states, based on rational explanations and logic, and my experience in government suggests ... that these people have emotions, they have their own views on the world, and that different people in these positions behave differently . Good news is that there is no big strategy in which they first capture the Crimea, then eastern Ukraine, then Moldova, and then a part of Estonia. This is a reaction to the collapse of power in Kiev. ”
But there is bad news:
“The bad news is that, in my opinion, Putin is now entrenched in his point of view. It will be a long, very long confrontational struggle with Russia, and it can last at least until Putin leaves the post. ”
Journalist Eric Suess (OpEdNews.com, translation source - Mixednews.ru) believes that today America is losing the war in Ukraine.
According to the political analyst, "Obama's coup in Ukraine" caused a "backlash," and it would "cost the US much more" than previously thought.
Obama's Ukrainian adventure will destroy his reputation in the United States, the author believes. His authority has already fallen in countries where the press is controlled by local elites, whose position does not always coincide with the American one.
In the current Ukrainian government, disagreements are growing, including between Kolomoisky and Poroshenko. Kiev regime is exhausted.
In addition, the Ukrainian government is “the most ultra-right in the world.” According to the journalist, its composition "identified Obama agent Victoria Nuland." Victoria's husband, Robert Kagan, is the co-founder of the Project for a New American Century. This man advocated a US invasion of Iraq. Kagan is a member of the Council of Foreign Relations in Brussels and editor of The New Republic.
For P. Poroshenko in the elections voted only residents of the north-western regions of Ukraine. The journalist points out that 9 in May, Prime Minister Yatsenyuk, started ethnic cleansing in the Southeast, and those who had previously voted for Yanukovych had only two options: to flee to Russia or die. This operation allowed the Kiev government to retain the ultra-right deviation and at the same time be “democratically elected.”
American journalist George Elaison wrote that Kolomoisky recently refused to obey Poroshenko’s orders and even considered the proposal of the “peace plan” a sign of weakness. Eric Suesse believes that Kolomoisky is a protege of Washington, and Obama and Nuland are responsible for "this monster".
Finally, progressive Craig Roberts spoke about the cracks that appear between Arsen Avakov and Dmitry Yarosh.
As for Putin, his public statements sound “so conciliatory” that it is “extremely difficult” for Barack Obama to continue to “demonize” the image of the Russian leader, according to Süssse.
“Perhaps the world is witnessing Obama throwing himself in the dustbin of history. Republicans are supposed to despise him for being a “democrat.” In turn, Democrats need to be stupid to think that Obama is indeed one of them. This is an excellent gift to the Republicans (who awarded America with such a nonentity as George W. Bush). After all, with a president like Obama, the nation can really yearn even at the times of its predecessor. ”
The same suss in the article for washingtonsblog.com (source of translation - Mixednews.ru) writes that "the company Poroshenko - Kolomoisky - Obama not only did not succeed, but in fact loses the war." In his opinion, the inhabitants of the South-East organized "effective partisan resistance." Earlier, Ukraine lost the Crimea: the overwhelming majority of the population there spoke in favor of reunification with Russia. Obama and his puppets, the author notes, it remains only not to recognize the fact that Crimeans freely voted for returning to Russia ...
A survey conducted by the American Gallup Institute throughout Ukraine showed that the Crimea is very negative towards the United States (2,8% gave a favorable assessment), but Russia is loved there (71,3%). According to the results of the referendum, according to 82,8% of Crimeans, only 6,7% were against.
The author believes that Obama is “again cunning”, and his fabrications are spread under the guise of truth by obedient American media.
What can Moscow oppose to Washington today in the “Ukrainian crisis”? On this subject the other day talked on the site "Free Press" Anton Mardasov. He asked a question: can Russia outline the “red line” for America and for Obama personally? And what exactly will make it go? Millionth flow of refugees from the Donbass or the number of civilians killed?
Vladimir Anokhin, First Vice-President of the Academy of Geopolitical Problems, answered these questions. The expert believes that the United States itself is driving itself into a corner. But Russia must act decisively: the red line has already been passed.
“Now a sort of zugzwang is taking shape, when every step of our opponents (we should not call them partners) makes the positions of the latter weaker. Russia, for example, very calmly reacted to all of these, forgive the idiotic sanctions, did not throw a tantrum, they say, and we will do something to you too. This tranquility plunged the West into political shock. He no longer knows what to do.
It is also wrong when they say that the Russian Federation allegedly loses the information war. None of our counter-propaganda has done more than the Ukrainians and Americans themselves have done. The United States generally showed itself in all its glory. The governor of the Rostov region says that the boundaries of his region have crossed 186 thousands of people. This is a humanitarian catastrophe, but the State Department insists that these people are going to "relax to the grandmothers." None of the most sophisticated propagandists would ever guess. ”
It is also wrong when they say that the Russian Federation allegedly loses the information war. None of our counter-propaganda has done more than the Ukrainians and Americans themselves have done. The United States generally showed itself in all its glory. The governor of the Rostov region says that the boundaries of his region have crossed 186 thousands of people. This is a humanitarian catastrophe, but the State Department insists that these people are going to "relax to the grandmothers." None of the most sophisticated propagandists would ever guess. ”
In addition, as the analyst further notes, the countries of the “old Europe” are beginning to “feel skin” that they are being set up. During the time of the Yugoslav crisis, the rate of American companies rose, and the dollar went around the euro. Today, the situation unfolds in the most unfavorable manner, again for Europe.
As for the UN Security Council, this structure is confidently following the path of the League of Nations. States are clinging to their superiority and do not want to recognize the multipolarity of the world, the expert said.
Another analyst, a representative of the Kryshtanovskaya Laboratory, political analyst Mikhail Korostikov, believes that Russia cannot dictate any conditions to the United States. However, she still could act.
“It is worth saying that Russia's economic and financial dependence on the United States is much more than the dependence of the United States on the Russian Federation. However, Russia, probably, could, firstly, completely stop cooperation in the space sphere. This would cause big problems for the United States in terms of delivering cargo and astronauts to orbit, satellite launch, and space exploration. Secondly, we could, unofficially, behind the scenes, say that we will deliver C-300 installations to Iran and other countries in order to complicate their already difficult relationship with the States. ”
Political analyst Semen Bagdasarov told the Free Press that Russia has plenty of opportunities to put pressure on the United States:
“This year the United States is withdrawing the bulk of its troops from Afghanistan. The withdrawal of troops can be carried out in several directions: the southern one - from Pakistan through the Khyber Pass and to Karachi, but there the Taliban fighters are operating with might and main, which can cause serious damage to the troops; western - through Central Asia and to Turkey, but this is a very difficult route; northern - through Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Russia to the Baltic states. This way is the most acceptable for the Americans. We have several agreements on this subject with the United States, for example, on the railway connection, which was concluded without ratification and provides for the delivery of non-lethal aid in closed containers (and nobody knows what is inside) and flight connections. Thanks to the latter, at one time, the States completely carried out the rotation of their troops, and the air navigation services for American transit fell entirely on the Russian budget. In addition, our transport aviation in the interests of the Americans, it is used to transport necessary equipment and even to transport goods inside Afghanistan. ”
And these are the agreements that the expert considers possible to break all the agreements. In addition, Russian airlines can get a ban on flights to the "good" of the United States. As a result, the Americans "will be oh how hard."
So, Russian analysts and experts offer a lot of options on how to “equip” the Ukrainian crisis. However, it seems that while the “great pragmatist” Putin is acting in the international arena, his “antipode” Obama is acting. Two sanctions packages have been introduced against Russia, and the US president is threatening to introduce a third one — the most terrible, sectoral, which could also hit the Russian energy industry.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said the other day, writes Gazeta.ruthat the US authorities use sanctions against Russia as a new offensive weapon. Ryabkov said this in an interview with Kommersant.
“It seems that power structures in Washington have come to the conclusion that it is sometimes easier and cheaper to apply sanctions than to carry out a traditional projection of military force on someone. That is, we are dealing with a new offensive type of weapon, ”comrade Ryabkov noted.
What is Russia to answer? According to Ryabkov, Russia will not be drawn into the arms race: “We will not do that. But we are forced to seek an antidote. On offensive weapons should be defensive. This is what we will do. ”
So the US is doing, and the Kremlin is “engaged.”
We would very much like journalist Eric Züsse to be right in the end, believing that Obama lost in Ukraine, and Putin won, and that Obama will even soon throw himself in the dustbin of history. But so far there are no real prerequisites for this. Rather, there are opposite prerequisites: Obama, no less emotional than Putin, certainly believes Ukraine to be something of a field for a rematch. On it, in this field, he wants to recoup for all his geopolitical failures and even for internal defeats - from the unsuccessful “reset” to the “shutdown” of the government last year. B. Kh. O. really does not want to go down in history as the “lame duck” of all American “lame ducks”.
Observed and commented on Oleg Chuvakin
- especially for topwar.ru
- especially for topwar.ru