Ukraine: Putin's hunt has begun
In the next letter from "Alex" from Kiev everything is interesting. And, in my opinion, a number of details put into place a lot of what happened literally recently. Some things, alas, confirm what was said earlier. I hope our people in Slavyansk and Donetsk will also be interested to look at the situation from the “other side”. The letter, of course, with some reductions and corrections.
"... I understand that now all the attention is drawn to Slavyansk and the fate of Strelka, and my message seems to lie outside the current mainstream, however, maybe my information will be useful for you to understand the completeness of the current situation. As I assumed in the previous letter, these days were the most bloody in the war. Unfortunately, Gunpowder is not going to stop. The following information was received from different people and I will give it in the form of conclusions.
Poroshenko. As I kept saying all the time, Gunpowder was going to fight to the last soldier. He needs a military victory, otherwise, it seems, in the fall, he will simply be swept away. Moreover, he began to implement his election plan, which I described in the previous message.
Now they are breaking up the deputies for the adoption of a new electoral legislation, in accordance with which elections are held according to open party lists. The corresponding bill is already ready. Therefore, the deadline at Gunpowder in order to crush the uprising - until August, in fact, he went for broke.
Now it becomes clear and his personnel policy. If Yanukovych reigned, not rules, and preferred to spend time hunting or in his own Mezhyhirya, Gunpowder fits in everything personally and controls them. The posts are not placed grandee, and performers, whose main task - to perform accurately and in time all instructions Gunpowder.
At the same time, with the latest personnel changes, Gunpowder crushed all the financial flows associated with the security forces. By the way, the resumption of hostilities was an unpleasant surprise for the Europeans, the ministry was very hard in explaining with the Germans and the French. Only Payette was calm as an elephant and didn’t react at all to the “consultations” with representatives of the DNR and the LC.
The fact that “counseling” is a divorce is clear from one fact. If you remember, a lot of noise was caused by the news that the Donbass is protesting the AP against extending the truce. Everyone bought and started shouting that Donbass, in which case Gunpowder would be blown away. So, yesterday, when Gunpowder spoke at BP, the order around it was ensured by the very Donbass that was supposed to sweep it away. Rumor has it that Gunpowder took on full support of this very "Donbass", which will become his personal guard. Such is the protection against the Kolomoisky thugs. The conclusion is simple - Gunpowder does not trust the official power structures.
Tymoshenko. This person is not one of those who so easily give up. She has already recovered and is sitting in wait. Speaking about the situation in the country and Gunpowder, she spoke briefly: “Let's let him crap.”
Its goal is still simple - not to give elections in October, but to delay them until the spring of next year, and even then, given the disastrous situation in the social sphere, to return at least to parliament, and at the most, to become president in the next special elections. The goal has not changed - the presidency. In fact, it is now beneficial for her that Gunpowder could not crush the uprising, then she will begin to carry out her plan in the autumn. From this point of view, her interest in “consultations” with the DPR and LPR becomes clear.
"Consultations". There is no reliable information about the last “consultations”. It is known that Kuchma was needed there only for the entourage, all the negotiations were led by Medvedchuk.
What kind of person, I will not describe, anyone can google. I can only say that all the political projects for which Medvedchuk undertook failed miserably. His most epic failure is, of course, the Orange Revolution. For some reason everyone is convinced that this “revolution” is the work of Americans, but few know that Medvedchuk and Kuchma played a smaller, if not greater, role in it.
The purpose of this whole action was - Kuchma's third term. In short, Yanukovych and Yushchenko should have discredited each other, brought the situation to a standstill, as a result new presidential elections were called, without the participation of these clowns, at which Kuchma was supposed to run. But amers quickly cut through the situation and turned it around.
So, knowing what type of trying to cling to the DNI and LC, I am very afraid for their fate. Another frame participated in the "consultations" - Shufrich. And here it is much more interesting. Despite the fact that he is a former lover of Tymoshenko, Shufrich kept with her the warmest and most friendly relations. So, Yulia knows everything that Shufrich knows, consider that Yulia Vladimirovna herself was present at the “consultations” with the DPR and LPR. The fact that she uses the information obtained in their own interests, I have no doubt.
There was a lot of screaming on the net about whether Russia helps the DPR and LPR with armored vehicles or not. [Here is an explanation of where my interlocutor got the information, and I am forced to make a lacuna so as not to "light up" anyone inadvertently] Quantity tanks among militias (DNI and LNR) - in the region of 20 pieces, all of which were either repulsed or bought from ukrovoyannye. Even if Russia had supplied hundreds of tanks to the militias, they would not have been able to use them simply as a result of the lack of crews for them. According to my interlocutor, the militia’s tanks do not care about the ukramiya, since they cannot use them in large quantities, and single tanks will be quickly destroyed if they enter into any protracted battle.
On aviation the situation is, of course, deplorable. There aren’t any experienced pilots, now they’re “flying” with a dozen or two replenishment, but this story not fast Actually flying on a dozen attack aircraft. In short - there are planes, no pilots. There are no aviation militias, no airfields suitable for use by military aviation.
On the fate of the DNI and LC
Europe in no way will allow the existence of the DNI and the LC. She does not need another Transnistria. But, if Transnistria can still be tolerated with its 300 000 population, the unrecognized states in the center of Europe with a population of 7 million are not needed by Europeans, since ignoring their existence as Transnistria is simply impossible.
About Putin and Crimea
Crimea is Putin’s biggest mistake, the hook on which he planted himself. If at first the Europeans were confused, then after a miscalculation of the situation, they believe that, using the Crimea question, they will be able to drop Putin's rating. The plan is simple in general terms - by using economic and diplomatic methods to make Putin surrender to the DPR and the LPR, which, according to their calculations, should drop his rating, and then start the pressure, is much more serious about the Crimean issue.
At the first stage, we are not even talking about the return of the Crimea, it is about the possibility of forcing Putin to negotiate with Ukraine regarding the "settlement of the Crimean question." According to the calculations of Europeans, the very fact of the start of such negotiations will finish off Putin's rating.
In the West, there is a consensus on Putin. It was believed that after the Crimea, it was impossible to deal with him, and it was decided to dump him in any way - at least with the help of Moscow’s Maidan, at least in the form of physical elimination. Moreover, the West is now considering options for two “Maidans” - a certain new Bolotnaya, or “patriotic Maidan”, which, according to their calculations, is possible in case of the delivery of the DPR and the LPR and the start of “consultations in the Crimea”. The West is confident that he has enough opportunities to intercept the control of the “patriotic Maidan”.
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