Foreign policy maneuvers

Foreign policy maneuversThe civil war in Ukraine continues, and it will not end soon. Judging by the number of people willing to pacify the Donbass by force, by their threats against Poroshenko only because he declared a fictitious truce in the framework of foreign policy maneuver, it is possible to really expect a cessation of hostilities not until the autumn of 2014 of the year and hardly later than January of 2015.

It's just that it is still warm and the Kiev troops suffer only from poor irregular feeding and inadequate leadership, they are ready to fight on. Telepropaganda provides replenishment of losses (which, according to the most optimistic estimates of the militia, do not exceed three thousand people) with the new zombie cannon fodder, who sincerely believes that it (the meat) is sent to the front to protect Ukraine from insidious Putin and smash Russia down to Chukotka and Kamchatka.

With the onset of cold weather morale falls. Even the most disciplined and professional (at that time) army of the Third Reich experienced this in 1941. To stop its collapse, Hitler was forced to give his order “Not one step back” eight months before Stalin.

A catastrophe of the Ukrainian army cannot be prevented by such an order. At least, because by the autumn, the regions controlled by Kiev, which are now the more or less reliable rear of the punitive troops, fully realize the “advantages” of empty shelves in stores. Bread, salt, matches, already disappear from sales in Uman, Kharkiv, Sumy region, the range of goods is declining (though not yet critical) in Kiev stores. By the same time, the population will have to pay for utilities at European rates for several months, in addition to wages reduced by one and a half to two times, rising unemployment, a drop in the purchasing power of the hryvnia and the absence of additional sources of income. Well, the number of coffins that came from the front will increase. And the loss of the “gallant” punitive army of new territories is very likely.

From lightning defeat within a month or two, Kiev can save only the limited military resources of the militia. In the civil war in Ukraine, armies of 15-30 thousand people oppose each other and their increase above 40-50 thousand is impossible due to limited domestic resources (the larger armed forces will simply have nothing to feed and it will be impossible to provide weapons, ammunition and replenishment). That is, both the advance of the Southeast and the collapse of the punitive grouping will rather be relatively slow.

This means that the possibility of international mediation will continue to be maintained in order to achieve a compromise peace. Moreover, with the weakening of the punishers and the strengthening of the anti-fascist forces, this mediation will be increasingly in demand by Kiev. That is, there is a great risk that not a single party to the civil conflict in Ukraine can achieve complete victory.

However, we have already written that the clash in Ukraine is a civil war only in form. In fact, this is - like the Vietnamese or Afghan, Iraqi or Syrian wars - a clash of geopolitical players. In this case, Russia and the United States. So, the conditions of peace in Ukraine, and any war ends sooner or later with peace, we should consider not from the point of view of the victory / defeat of Kiev or the Union of People's Republics, but from the point of view of meeting the long-term interests of Russia and the United States.

Note that war is a game with a nonzero amount. It can be one winner and one loser, both sides can win and both can lose, regardless of the specific outcome of the hostilities. When we stated earlier that the United States had already lost in Ukraine, we proceeded from the axiom of the great Sun Tzu, who taught: “The best war is to break the plans of the enemy; in the next place - break his alliances; in the next place - smash his troops. The worst thing is to besiege the fortresses. ” Putin did not “besiege the fortress” in Ukraine, he provided an opportunity to smash punitive troops to the militia forces, the US unions are gradually falling apart, though not without help, but without the visible participation of Russia. But Washington’s intentions in Ukraine were destroyed almost instantly:

1.The Russian fleet could not be ousted from the Crimea.
2. Ukraine failed to turn into an anti-Russian ram.
3.Russia could not be forced to pay for Ukrainian stability, thus laying its content on its borders on the American vassal bankrupt.

Russia could not be forced to send troops to mainland Ukraine, thus entering into a confrontation with the EU, which would give the United States the opportunity to preserve the most important of its alliances and destroy both existing and only emerging alliances of Russia in Europe.
From this point of view, the USA has really lost. However, the war continues, and it is the United States that is fueling it, pushing Kiev onto ever new provocations and atrocities. Why?

As we have already noted, war is a non-zero-sum game. Losing one is not necessarily winning the other. The USA, having lost themselves, is trying not to let Russia win. Win not in the overthrow of the Kiev junta. This is a problem of time, not of principle. The United States is trying to prevent Russia from winning the postwar world.

Here we move from the definition of Sun Tzu to the definition of Liddell Garth, who, in his teaching on the Strategy for Indirect Action, stated: “The goal of the war is to achieve a better state of peace, if only from your point of view”. This is the best state of the world from the Russian point of view and they don’t want to allow the United States. Therefore, today the center of the conflict is gradually being transferred from the line of fire to the parquet halls of international conferences. Military actions will still be in the foreground for a long time. For a few more long months, people will mourn the dead and watch the movement of the front line with tension, but the result of the war is already predetermined, and the struggle is for a result of peace. She has already begun. How at one time the struggle for the peace format after the Second World War was fought in Tehran, Yalta and Potsdam. When the first two conferences were held, Germany was not yet defeated, and the third took place before the military defeat of Japan.

What kind of problems will Russia face (already facing) during the negotiations on the post-war structure of Ukraine?

The first and main problem. There is no longer a Ukrainian state, but it’s extremely difficult to recognize its liquidation right from the international legal point of view. For the first time disappears the founding state of the UN. It disappears during the civil war, when the opposing sides have only conditional legitimacy and none of them is recognized as completely legitimate by the whole international community. Preservation of this state is desirable from the point of view of international law, but it is impossible from the point of view of financial and economic. None of the global players, like all of them taken together, have either the resources or the desire to support Ukraine for years (if not decades), before it can be politically stabilized and transferred to financial and economic self-sufficiency.

With the joint efforts of Russia, the USA and the EU, with the involvement of international organizations, the problems could somehow be solved, but, as mentioned above, the US is not yet ready for a constructive dialogue, and the internal situation in America, as well as its global economic interests, is practically do not give up hope that Washington will move from confrontation to constructive in the Ukrainian direction. That is, we can assume that everyone will not mind to preserve (at least temporarily) the formal unity of the Ukrainian state, but at the same time each global player will be ready to support, stabilize and support only its clients (following the example of two Koreas, two Vietnamese, two Germanies ).

The second problem arises from the first and is that the so-called pro-European (in fact, pro-American) politicians in Ukraine are all, as one, mess themselves with cooperation with the Ukrainian Nazis. They all take part in the construction of a (albeit unsuccessful) totalitarian Nazi state. They are all dirty in the blood of the peaceful population of Donbass. They are all responsible for the unconstitutional use of the army against civilians, without imposing a state of emergency or martial law. And, worst of all, they managed to get a huge amount of ordinary citizens in their blood - someone (participants of punitive raids) in the literal sense, someone (media support groups and a duped population) indirectly. In addition, Western Ukraine has been turned into a neo-Nazi reserve.

Meanwhile, Russia cannot agree to the preservation on the territory of at least a part of Ukraine of a neo-Nazi Russophobic regime dreaming of revenge. And Europe is not profitable. It is precisely her neo-Nazis who are already accused, and the further, the more they will be blamed, in the absence of full support for their “Euro-aspirations”, which means of “treason” and “collusion with Moscow”. But the US is not yet ready to finally abandon the support of neo-Nazis, and it can be assumed that they will try (in their own interests) to preserve this irritant for Russia and the EU, this potential source of conflict, at least in Western Ukraine. The complete defeat of the armed formations of neo-Nazi militants, this problem is not solved. In the case of the preservation (at least in Western Ukraine) of neo-Nazis in politics (and even in power), the formation of new militant groups is a matter of time. Meanwhile, denazification of Western Ukraine is possible only in the case of the introduction of external governance and systemic ideological, administrative and police work.

The third problem: the decision to abandon claims to the Crimea can be taken only by the re-established Ukrainian state, that is, newly created on a confederative basis by new entities within the new borders. The current Constitution of Ukraine prohibits state bodies to make a decision on changing the territorial structure without submitting the issue to a national referendum (and it will be extremely problematic to collect the majority for rejecting Crimea in a referendum). Moreover, the removal of the Crimean problem is unprofitable by the same US. Yes, and the EU would be happy to keep this lever, if not pressure on Russia, then bargaining for it, any additional concessions.

Thus, today two variants of a peaceful settlement are real.

The first involves the start of constructive negotiations with international mediation, which ideally should lead to the creation of a confederative Ukrainian state (most likely temporary, to ensure a bloodless divorce within three to five years). The complexity of its implementation stems from the fact that Kiev is not ready to give up control over those territories that are not yet lost to them.

Neo-Nazi militants who form the backbone of the punitive grouping are not ready to retreat without a fight and recognize the Union of People's Republics (or Novorossia) as equal contracting party. All four months after the coup d'état in Kiev, the United States demonstrates its readiness to fight until the last Ukrainian and leave the territory of Russia and the EU in a state of humanitarian catastrophe, with a destroyed economy, a destroyed habitat of large cities and armed gangs controlling each region or town . The Kiev authorities are blindly subordinate to the United States and have no forces to neutralize their own neo-Nazi militants, whom they recognized as legal armed groups. Constitutional reorganization of the country will require a long period of stabilization, restoration and disarmament of combat units, during which external forces will have to ensure military, police and administrative control over the territory, as well as huge financial investments in ensuring social stability and gradual economic recovery.

Therefore, this option today seems unlikely. It can only be realized if all the players involved, including the United States, are ready for constructive dialogue and cooperation in establishing peace and at the same time have a common, coordinated look at the desired new device of the Ukrainian state and its prospects in the coming 5-10 years (including the need for full denazification).

The readiness of all participants for honest equity participation in the restoration of the economy and social sphere of Ukraine is also necessary. Finally, it will be necessary to have an agreed position on the punishment of war criminals. But here, Kiev continues to officially accuse the militias of shelling their cities themselves, bombing them with the help of a militia that is absent aviation and kill their own children. That is, the parties to the conflict have a diametrically opposite idea of ​​who the war criminal is. In the case of the trial of key figures of the current Kiev authorities, the role of the United States in organizing both the coup in Kiev and the genocide of the Donbass population will inevitably be publicly revealed and legally fixed.

The second option involves the offensive of the army of the South-East, the liberation of not only Novrossiya, but the entire right bank, except (possibly) Zazbruchya or Galicia only, the creation of a new government (the same bases as for the overthrow of Yanukovich and the “election” of Poroshenko - the old government fled fearing the insurgent people), holding new elections, thus legitimizing the new supreme bodies of state power, adopting a new Constitution and on its basis either re-establishment or liquidation of the Ukrainian state.

The weak point of this option is Galicia, which in this case will not just want independence, but will also consider itself the last remaining remnant of an independent Ukraine, and all other territories occupied. The US and the EU (or only the US) may well support such an approach. In addition, he again does not guarantee the punishment of war criminals who can flee to Galicia and feel like heroes there.

Therefore, the implementation of even such a force option lies in the plane of onset up to the western border and the complete elimination of neo-Nazism in Ukraine. However, for such a deep and complex operation, the good will of the EU is necessary. Brussels, after the departure of Barroso, Ashton and Van Rompuy, of course, will become more accommodating, but he will not be able to change his position in a matter of months to such an extent. Moreover, the outgoing European bureaucracy left to its successors a weight on its feet in the form of an association agreement between Ukraine and the EU.

Consequently, it can be expected that after the intensification of hostilities, inevitable at the end of the failed “truce”, to which both sides are preparing, for some time (a month or two) the punitive group will suffer a catastrophic but not final defeat, and the Army of the Southeast will take control of a significant (perhaps even most) part, but not the entire territory of Ukraine. At this point, in order to prevent the final military defeat of Kiev, the EU and the United States will have to come up with peace initiatives, achieve a final cease-fire with Russia, introduce international peacekeeping forces and start negotiations on a final settlement. In this case, the unofficial section of Ukraine on the demarcation line is almost predetermined.

Only actions of neo-Nazi militants can prevent a settlement of this kind. Thanks to the frantic propaganda of the war by the Kiev media, their numbers have seriously increased. They are ideologically motivated and, unlike the Ukrainian army, which, as always, will calmly go over to the side of the winner, they are unlikely to accept the fact that they are “taken away” by a part (most likely, large) of Ukraine. They are capable of both a coup d'état in the territories under control of the Kiev regime and the establishment of a dictatorial military regime similar to the late Petliurism, and the beginning of a partisan war against peacekeepers (including Europeans and Americans whom they will consider traitors).

Thus, as we see, all the options for a compromise peace settlement, with which Russia is ready and able to agree, rest on the impossibility for the neo-Nazi regime in Kiev and its military detachments to agree to peace and not become the targets of criminal prosecution for war crimes. The second risk factor is the position of the United States and (to some extent) the EU, which are trying to finally legalize the Kiev regime with the help of peace initiatives, to formalize its recognition throughout the country (albeit conditional recognition), while retaining its partial influence on the situation in Ukraine. And Ukraine itself, as an extremely unstable territory, demanding constant attention from Russia and heavy financial, economic and military-political costs.

As a result, it can be concluded that a more or less acceptable post-war peace in Ukraine is impossible for Russia either without a full and comprehensive military victory of the South-East (which is realizable), or without a fundamental change in the positions of the EU and US governing circles (which is problematic in the case of the EU and almost unreal in the case of the USA).

Based on the above, the political situation dictates the following format of hostilities:

The first stage is the rapid defeat of the main group of punishers in the Izyum area and the fastest and deepest movement towards Kiev and the whole of the right bank as a whole, leaving potential centers of resistance in the rear, such as Dnipropetrovsk. The goal is not only and not so much the seizure of the maximum territory before the West has time to launch an intermediary initiative, but also to stimulate the Ukrainian security forces and bureaucracy to switch to the side of the new government, so that it can be stated that the junta has lost the trust of the people and no one supports (a mirror image of the situation with Yanukovych). This is the stage of the initial legitimization of the power of the Union of People’s Republics as an all-Ukrainian

The second stage - after the mediation initiatives of the West - a cease-fire according to the Poroshenko scheme (there is a statement, but there is no cessation). Conducting limited operations to clean up the territory in its own rear and further advance to the West (the pretext is a popular uprising against the junta in its rear).

The third stage - after entering, at least, on the Zbruch line - the beginning of real negotiations with the fluent junta directly, and with Western intermediaries. From the junta is necessary to make statements about the separation of Western Ukraine (or only Galicia). With which you can agree if it will be confirmed in a referendum, following the example of those that took place in Donetsk and Lugansk. The West, on the other hand, must recognize the de facto authorities of the Union of People's Republics as the legal representatives of the rest of Ukraine.

If these three stages are successfully completed, then the longest and most difficult but already peaceful phase of the final international legalization of the new geopolitical reality will begin. The West will have to recognize the new government in Kiev de jure, as well as its right to refuse the association agreement and join the CU and the EAEU (integration directly into Russia, although desirable, seems almost impossible to implement at this stage). In exchange, Russia and the new Ukraine can not only recognize the separation of Galicia as part of the 3-7 areas, but also agree with any of its future fate, ranging from integration into the EU in parts (by joining the neighboring states) and ending with its formalization as a new UN member.

The only requirement that in this case cannot be lifted and whose support from the EU (or part of its members) could be ensured - denazification of Western Ukraine under international control and the tribunal over war criminals. In this case, even if the US hides some of its “especially valuable” minions (even if it would be safer to kill them), the political forces of Western Ukraine will never be able to claim all-Ukrainian representation, and, consequently, the danger of neo-Nazi revenge attempts will be minimized.

In general, it should be noted that for Russia the main problem today is not a physical victory in Ukraine, which has already been practically resolved, namely, achieving peace, which would be better than a pre-war one, if only from the point of view of Russia. Complicated foreign policy maneuvers of the Russian leadership, as well as his refusal to quickly resolve the Ukrainian crisis by the forces of the Russian army, are connected with this.
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  1. +3
    5 July 2014 14: 17
    Games by games, and people die, and innocent
    1. +4
      5 July 2014 14: 44
      Played and enough! It’s time and fangs to show. These impudent fascists will understand nothing but power. Instead of politics, I cannot plant them at the most, and then negotiate ..... surrender.
    2. +4
      5 July 2014 17: 05
      But the Russian leadership calmly contemplates how the Russian people are being destroyed in Novorossia, and at the same time does nothing during targeted shelling of our territory, if in the 1941 year they did not allow answers to provocations, now they are afraid of sanctions, and why they are afraid, they will be used in any situation .
  2. portoc65
    5 July 2014 14: 17
    Everything from the author is so easy and simple .. nada .. necessary ... and the Russians both died and continue to die from the genocide staged by the fascist junta
    1. 0
      5 July 2014 18: 49
      I agree 100%
  3. Artifact
    5 July 2014 14: 24
    By the way, I read an article by this expert a year ago, it’s not very bad at assessing the situation.
    1. MAG
      5 July 2014 14: 40
      Good expert +. About the departure of Strelkov and his movement to the Donbass. My opinion Strelkov decided to take ALL power for himself (Bezler didn’t try it on Strelkov’s command) now all units will have to obey or destroy Strelkov. According to Khodakovsky, I think he’ll definitely be blamed for storming the airport and for setting up with an outpost and his protection of Akhmetov’s assets. Gubarev is a purely nominal figure, he does not control anything except a small flow of humanitarian aid. Pushilin is not intelligible (either he privatizes enterprises, then no, Khodakovsky puts pressure on him) peacefully removed but not immediately. Beard in conjunction with Strelkov (the same security is very well coordinated). After the creation of a single command, interaction with the LPR and Bolotov will increase significantly.
      1. Andrey82
        5 July 2014 15: 22
        It’s time to clear out treason in the DPR. Then it would not hurt in Russia.
        1. MAG
          5 July 2014 15: 36
          As it seems to me, everything goes to this and stumbles crookedly but goes. It may work out there, but it will be difficult for us. The great PU can, but it is necessary that he be very scared, but for now we have Aifonya, Chubais, Serdyukov and KO and a lot of all kinds of evil spirits. But there are also positive aspects of Khabarov's release soon and Kvachkov will be released, and it’s not for nothing that if there is a "home" hit on the PU, then he will transfer the whole gang with such people (and how happy they will be). Checks and balances.
          1. Andrey82
            5 July 2014 18: 12
            I am for a coup d'etat with a snuffbox on my bald head and for Khabarov-Kvachkov-Strelkov.
        2. +1
          6 July 2014 00: 24
          It’s time to clear out treason in the DPR. Then it would not hurt in Russia.

          Moreover, not in words, but in practice. By the way, in the article there are no proposals for the decontamination of the fifth column in Russia. and this is one of the necessary conditions for peace after the war.
      2. +4
        5 July 2014 15: 32
        May God grant that you are right. After all, now in Slavyansk the population will be so "fondled" that I don't even want to talk.
        Oh the price will be high for the victory, very high.
  4. +6
    5 July 2014 14: 24
    "A case has been initiated into the shelling of Russian law enforcement officers near the border with Ukraine"
    Dill in horror! So many criminal cases brought against them! Kolomoisky and Yarosh hang themselves from fear, the National Guard will drop weapons! Strong plan !!!
  5. rereture
    5 July 2014 14: 32
    Our campaign merged Novorossia.
    Reformatting of the information front has already begun. For example, the unobtrusive naming of militias as separatists.
    Yes, and even our government will flow that everything itself will settle down.

    The active phase of the conflict in eastern Ukraine will end in a maximum of a few weeks, according to the representative of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs on human rights, democracy and the rule of law Konstantin Dolgov.

    “I think the hot phase is a matter of weeks,” he said in an interview with the Vesti Saturday program on Rossiya TV Channel.
    1. pg4
      5 July 2014 14: 41
      Strange situation. At first, the conflict was fueled by the media, but now there is some kind of "loud silence" at all levels of government at best.
      1. +2
        5 July 2014 15: 43
        Father's silence, just in verbal expression to the situation, power structures of all levels are very successful, with an emphasis on helping refugees and "humanitarian aid" through the Ministry of Emergencies. But, of course, we were expecting not only this. And what, and so everyone understands .... It remains "stupid" to accept news about the next shelling, including the Russian territory, victims, "notes", criminal cases ...
      2. The comment was deleted.
      3. Boralex63
        5 July 2014 18: 02
        I congratulate you friends !!! Happy New Year! HAPPY DAY IMPOTENT !!! I propose to celebrate it on the day of the final fall of New Russia! ... And what teachings were there! You remember?! Tanchiki - Well, airplanes ur-ur-ur! Even the rackets flew! And the soldiers ran so sweetly ... And they drank some dibs ...
        1. +4
          5 July 2014 18: 18
          hear what you want your holiday chtoli we want to make us celebrate, perish evil spirits
          1. The comment was deleted.
        2. +4
          5 July 2014 18: 59
          stoop! get up knee-elbow pose.
  6. 0
    5 July 2014 14: 37
    Cold is cold, but it must be reached. With the current alignment of forces, I do not really believe in this. A much more likely option is the standard of living in Ukraine. If within a few months Svidomo really feel what it’s on their skin ... they were driven from them, then I don’t know how to protect Kiev then.
    1. +3
      5 July 2014 14: 55
      Quote: Iline
      If within a few months Svidomo really feel what it’s on their skin ... they were driven from them, then I don’t know how to protect Kiev then.

      It is believed that this is what the Kremlin is waiting for.
  7. Tyumen
    5 July 2014 14: 43
    * Here in the warlike excitement of Governor Palmerston
    It strikes Russia on the map with the index finger. *
    It was written during the Crimean War, but after reading the work of this strategist, for some reason I remembered.
  8. +3
    5 July 2014 14: 49
    It is her neo-Nazis who are already blaming, and the further they are, the more they will blame for the lack of full support for their “Euro aspirations”, and therefore for “betrayal” and “conspiracy with Moscow”.

    "Old Europe" fell into insanity and is obliged for the sake of the European Ukrainian people to go to a possible confrontation with Russia, fraught with grave consequences for the European Union. We, as a European people, now have the right to remind Europeans that you have to pay for European values. "

    “Indeed, especially the so-called“ old Europe ”looks, perhaps, crazy, lost its mind and went into insanity, because it advises us to invite Medvedchuk to negotiations, signs some agreements on the South Stream and is ready, for example, France, to sell Russian warships that can be used against us "

    You, representatives of European states, will have to pay for upholding European values, possibly with certain conflicts with the Russian Federation. You may have to pay for a reduction in markets and an increase in unemployment, which will be associated with the introduction of sanctions against Russia. But we, Ukrainians, have the right to demand this from you, because for these European values ​​we paid with our lives in this place. ”
    1. 0
      6 July 2014 01: 38
      You, representatives of European states, will have to pay for upholding European values, possibly with certain conflicts with the Russian Federation. You may have to pay for a reduction in markets and an increase in unemployment, which will be associated with the imposition of sanctions against Russia. But we, Ukrainians, have the right to demand this from you, because for these European values ​​we paid with our lives in this place

      This official deserves the Nobel Peace Prize, as does Obama. They scare Europe to death. In order not to be in lifelong debtors from substituting their best brothers for their own bullets, and not to pay all this pack craving for European values, a European standard of living, Europe would rather join the Customs Union and assemble an International Tribunal to pronounce the most severe sentence on war criminals.
  9. +8
    5 July 2014 14: 55
    Thanks to the author! Not a single superfluous word, the tragic situation in Ukraine is very clearly described, and the options for breaking the deadlock are justified, or rather, there is only one way out.
  10. +7
    5 July 2014 15: 56
    I read the message that Strelkov retreated from Slavyansk.

    I do not do tragedy - from a military point of view, it is pointless to defend Slavyansk - the militias do not have heavy weapons.

    From a political point of view - the militias won. If the punishers so washed their blood near Slavyansk, what will they think about next?

    And they will think about the lack of time.

    I had the impression that the political games were over and Russia would soon send troops.

    I will explain why right now:

    - until today, the situation was this: Putin will send troops to Ukraine - get sanctions.

    - Now the situation is different: Russia is in a constant mode of waiting for sanctions. The West is making ever greater concessions. Russia is now losing a lot, not from sanctions, but from their expectation. Do you get it?

    Therefore, the victory will be ours! Russia will win. The sanctions of the West will spur the Russian Spring, the rise of self-awareness of the Russian people. The external enemy, you know, always rallies.

    PS I'm waiting for the gallows to be put in Kiev. And on them - hang Turchinov, Avakov, Yatsenyuk, Poroshenko, Tymoshenko, Yarosh and other unclean evil.

    PPS It's a pity the landing on the count was canceled ...
    1. -4
      5 July 2014 16: 08
      Quote: Enot-poloskun
      I don’t do tragedy - from a military point of view, it is pointless to defend Slavyansk - the militias have no heavy weapons

      Does it exist in Kramatorsk?
      Quote: Enot-poloskun
      From a political point of view - the militias won.

      Leaving the cities is a political victory belay
      Quote: Enot-poloskun
      If the punishers so washed their blood near Slavyansk, what will they think about next?

      Apparently they will continue to wash themselves with blood, and Strelkov will win politically
      Quote: Enot-poloskun
      And they will think about the lack of time.

      What is the lack of time?
      Quote: Enot-poloskun
      I had the impression that the political games were over and Russia would soon send troops.

      Based on what?

      Quote: Enot-poloskun
      - until today, the situation was this: Putin will send troops to Ukraine - get sanctions.

      - Now the situation is different: Russia is in a constant mode of waiting for sanctions. The West is making ever greater concessions. Russia is now losing a lot, not from sanctions, but from their expectation. Do you get it?

      Honestly, no

      Quote: Enot-poloskun
      PS I'm waiting for the gallows to be put in Kiev. And on them - hang Turchinov, Avakov, Yatsenyuk, Poroshenko, Tymoshenko, Yarosh and other unclean evil.

      PPS It's a pity the landing on the count was canceled ...

      Are gallows allowed?
      1. Gray-haired1952
        5 July 2014 16: 33
        Mr. "Raccoon-strip" has a problem with understanding.
        Like what he wants to see, he sees and even understands.
        But what he does not want to see, he just trolls.
        That's all.

        PS The Gallows Precedent was used against Nazi criminals.
        In relation to the Nazi criminals of Ukraine, this precedent can be reused.
  11. -1
    5 July 2014 16: 00
    speech from the cycle, if only yes, it’s clear what a professional politician said, there are a lot of words, but in fact, not a lot of useful and smart
  12. Korablev
    5 July 2014 16: 18
    Quote: Enot-poloskun
    I had the impression that the political games were over and Russia would soon send troops.

    what an optimist! ... I already thought all the optimistic cheers took off their pink glasses, but no, there is still ... or is it his task.
    1. +1
      6 July 2014 00: 03
      And how is an optimist different from a pessimist?
      - The pessimist looks at his hanging ... - "Well, everything is cranky."
      - An optimist, not looking at his hanging ..., proves that hanging ... is better than standing.
      This is me so, for slack. Everything will be fine, gentlemen forum users. hi
  13. +1
    5 July 2014 16: 23
    Quote: shishakova
    Thanks to the author! Not a single extra word ...

    And in my opinion, the words about hope for "General Moroz" are just superfluous.
    1. +1
      5 July 2014 22: 18
      I want to continue my unfinished thought.
      If in 1941 the soldiers of the Red Army, accustomed to the Russian frosts, had an advantage over the soldiers of the Wehrmacht, then in this case there will be no such advantage of one side over the other: both sides lived in the same climate. "General Frost" is the same who you are - a junta punisher, a militia defending his land, or a civilian. Therefore, the hope for this "general" is in vain. This carnage must end soon!
  14. +4
    5 July 2014 16: 30
    As always, an extremely clear and precise analysis from R. Ishchenko. Brilliantly! For some time now he became my favorite analyst for the clarity of position and the absence of any illusions about the neo-fascist state system after the end of hostilities.
    1. Korablev
      5 July 2014 16: 44
      Yes, the brains of the bastard are high quality, extremely clear and precise, brilliant.
      it should be noted that for Russia the main problem today is not physical victory in Ukraine, which is almost decided, namely the achievement of a world that would be better than pre-war, at least from the point of view of Russia. It is with this that the complex foreign policy maneuvers of the Russian leadership are associated

      here's HOW you can turn EVERYTHING with verbiage !, bravo!
  15. 0
    5 July 2014 16: 46
    We are all enthusiastically looking at Ukraine, but meanwhile:
    Yesterday Russia approved the mass relocation of the Chinese to the Russian Far East
    1. May 23, Vladimir Putin receives the head of the Chinese delegation at the St. Petersburg Economic Forum, Deputy Prime Minister of the Government of China (formerly head of the organizational department of the Central Committee of the CPC) Li Yuanchao:
    2. May 24, the day after the meeting with Putin, speaking at the forum incl. and before the members of the Russian government (Dvorkovich et al.), the Chinese Deputy Prime Minister proposes the following:
    “… Russia has a vast territory, and China is the most industrious people in the world. If we can combine these factors, then we will receive significant development. Russia has a large territory and few people, in China - on the contrary "
    “We intend to combine the development program of the Russian Far East and the strategy of raising the North-East of China into a single whole. Thus, to facilitate the conjugation of labor, material and financial capabilities of these two regions, to turn these two regions into a large market with an efficient distribution of resources, capital and technology, and gradually, in the future, into a new economic block of East Asia. Gentlemen, I have been engaged in economics for many years, and when I worked in the provinces, and when I work in the center, I always pay serious attention to the economic development of our territories, our regions. But as for the Northeast of China, if we manage to connect the Northeast of China with the Russian Far East, if we manage to connect these two points, we will create a single economic integration zone. ”
    Link to the video file on the official site of SPIEF:
    Speech by the Deputy Chairman of the Government of China - from 11:37.
    Open from Mozilla Firefox. The full text of the speech of the Vice Prime Minister of China:
    1. 0
      5 July 2014 16: 48
      3. June 13th. The head of the Federal Migration Service, Konstantin Romodanovsky, said he did not see a threat in the influx of migrants from China (and Vietnam).
      The head of the Federal Migration Service Konstantin Romodanovsky sees no threat in the influx of migrants from China and Vietnam to Russia. He says that he "does not want" to foresee "nothing terrible" and characterizes Chinese citizens as "law-abiding." "The citizens of China are quite law-abiding. They are excellent specialists, they are well managed by their foremen, their diaspora," said the head of the FMS.
      Earlier, the Federal Migration Service proposed in advance, even before arriving in the Russian Federation, to teach migrants the Russian language, the history of Russia and "the rules of behavior adopted in Russian society" in special centers. Similar institutions are planned to open in China - Romodanovsky discussed this issue with the plenipotentiary ambassador of the PRC to Russia Li Hui.
      erfeed # ixzz34heleHK0
      4. And the day before yesterday, July 2, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev holds a meeting on the development of the Far East, where Minister for Far Eastern Affairs Alexander Galushka proposes:
      “Eighth - the possibility of attracting foreign citizens to work without taking into account quotas”
      And so that Chinese investors, at whose enterprises the Chinese will work, do not pay taxes to the Russian budget:
      “Tax incentives. Six main incentives are proposed in the law amending the Tax Code. The first is tax breaks on corporate income tax; during the first five years, the rate should not exceed 5%. The second is a tax holiday on corporate property tax for 5 years. Third, there are also tax holidays for 5 years on land tax. The fourth is the preferential rate of insurance premiums for investment projects implemented in the territories of advanced development during the first 10 years in the amount of 7,6%. Also tax holidays for mineral extraction tax. And the sixth is an accelerated procedure for placing value added tax ... ”
      “Galushka said that in addition to China, which is interested in exporting labor resources, Japanese and South Korean companies — in particular, Mitsubishi, Mitsui, Daewoo, LG, Samsung and others — are showing interest in the Far Eastern ASEZs. “They want to localize their production there and are waiting for the adoption of the bill,” the minister reported.
      According to the department’s plans, in 10 years the population of the Far East should increase by 1 million people - this number will include both Russian workers and foreigners. ”
      1. Korablev
        5 July 2014 16: 51
        here, and in the east PU surrenders Russia
        Quote: kaa_andrey
        And so that Chinese investors, at whose enterprises the Chinese will work, do not pay taxes to the Russian budget:

        ...... no words just sad
      2. The comment was deleted.
    2. +2
      6 July 2014 01: 51
      “… Russia has a vast territory, and China is the most industrious people in the world. If we can combine these factors, then we will receive significant development. Russia has a large territory and few people, in China - on the contrary "

      Got game, Russian men! Few people in the lands of Russian!
      Have you forgotten where the children come from and where the main genital organ is in a real man? Do not look for him below the waist! It is in the head!
      You will blame your weaknesses on women, they say they do not want to give birth. And often they don’t want it precisely because they don’t find a childbearing organ. So it falls to the Chinese, to bow, to the people ...
      Aside the computer mouse! To the cause! Russia is waiting for your exploits!
  16. +1
    5 July 2014 16: 54
    A good analysis, except for one point, Novorossia DOES NOT HAVE resources for a victorious offensive and the author speaks about it at the beginning, and for such a jerk and retention of the territory, more than 40-50 thousand people are needed, in Crimea there were about 20 thousand, taking into account the forces of the fleet. Moreover, these should be trained and coordinated forces, and only Russia has them, now let's see how Pu will get out.
  17. +2
    5 July 2014 17: 35
    An expert would write fiction. Unscientific. Residents of the Southeast in their own land can do almost nothing with punishers. If not for the volunteers, the khan would have come a long time ago! And who will it go onto some kind of Zbruch line ... But meanwhile, objectively, the level of preparation of the dill is growing. After all, there are enough shells, guns and tanks. Learn to kill civilians. With morality, they generally have no difficulties ...
  18. Sam
    5 July 2014 18: 01
    It seems that Putin has leaked the southeast. Friends-oligarchs are more expensive. It’s a pity the Russian people are dying in the Donbass
    1. +1
      6 July 2014 01: 55
      It seems that Putin has leaked the southeast. Friends-oligarchs are more expensive. It’s a pity the Russian people are dying in the Donbass

      "Putin leaked" ... "sorry for the dying people"
      Have you joined the militia?
  19. 0
    5 July 2014 18: 25
    I beg your pardon, maybe I'm wrong. I watch TV Russia constantly news on the internet and don't understand anything ... They show the entrance of armored vehicles (Ukrainian), they walk along the right lane without hurrying (we also drove around the city), people calmly walk, cars They ride calmly, the guy rode the bike calmly again. They show terrible shots, and the men go to work, most of them are not going to stand up to defend their home ... I contacted my sister (she is near Kiev), they have no strains in terms of life , there is no economy. The nephew is going to the sea. The truth is enraged by the cries of the reservists in the high-frequency band behind the fence: "Glory to the Ukrainian, not." . grossly exaggerated.
    1. 0
      6 July 2014 01: 43
      Something your friends and relatives are a bit strange, don’t you? They think alike ... and evaluate ...
  20. koshh
    5 July 2014 18: 29
    Everything is beautifully stated, only all the options considered lead to great casualties among the civilian population. But it seems impossible to do without them. That is, in the chess game between Russia and mattresses with a geyropa, with the endgame approaching, there will be less and less pawns on the chessboard (and this is thousands of human lives).
  21. 0
    5 July 2014 18: 41
    Not an article, but complete nonsense. Russia is represented here as a full-fledged player on whom something depends. A player who is directly related to the victories of the militias, but not in any way related to their defeat, and a player on whom something depends. Although it depends, but only a defeat, as she betrayed Novorossia, she washed her hands. And speaking of the Far East, this government sees that the territory of Russia should be reduced too much. In the meantime, they will rob it, but officially and free of charge. Although officials will not be left out.
  22. +3
    5 July 2014 18: 42
    The analysis of the situation is interesting, while everything is based on the axiom "The Ukrainian war is already lost". I certainly agree with the author that Novorossiya is able to defeat both the Armed Forces of Ukraine and neo-Nazi punishers (they would have torn off those who call these bastards the National Guard) together with mercenaries. ... Airplanes are not needed, a couple of anti-aircraft complexes will be enough. Unfortunately, this has not yet been observed.
    I really hope that the situation will change in the coming days. If there is help from Russia, a completely different conversation with the fascists will begin, and then we will "see" how right the expert will be in his forecasts.
    1. Korablev
      5 July 2014 21: 36
      here again, huh? you still hope that
      Quote: Rostislav
      There will be help from Russia, - a completely different conversation will begin
      laughing laughing ... well - well ... insanity grew stronger ...
  23. +5
    5 July 2014 19: 03
    Article plus, competent and in-depth analysis of actions and results .. well, here are the comments just "oil painting" especially recently on any topic with regards to the events in Ukraine .. usually the first page of comments can not be read as there are 99% unsubscribed in the first ranks of "hysterical schoolgirls", "vsepropalschiki" and the rest of the liberal-lGBT pack of stray, homeless, without a king in their head .. :) :) .. it's already funny to read this nonsense and at the same time funny .. they do not shine with intelligence , these are very mediocre commentators with a typical set of phraseological phrases (PU, prezik, etc.) and an obligatory emphasis on suffering and misfortune that has fallen on the head of the people of Ukraine and the culprit is always the culprit - the President of Russia - Putin ... From these conclusions .. :) :) .. Poroshenko now probably feels like Napoleon entering Moscow in 1812, then everyone remembers? .. to enter the ruins and the city destroyed by them without water, gas and electricity .. feast victory, fact .. :)
  24. -1
    5 July 2014 19: 14
    It seems to me more and more that you and I are simply being fooled, gentlemen! We are told tales about some kind of victory, about the campaign against Kiev, about the collapse of the United States. Who saw this victory? And where!? Our guys are leaving, leaving the city and the corpses of their killed comrades. there is some kind of confusion in the DPR and LPR - the devil himself will not understand who is in control there and what, for local Ukrainians (whom we for some reason consider Russian) everything is like a hairdryer, they all say that everything is fine with them; the Duma departed for the holidays without saying a word about Novorossiya; in the East we asked Iran, allowing its rapprochement with the United States; in Siberia, hunghuzes crawl across the border like cockroaches into someone else's kitchen. And our most important person smiles with a Gagarin smile. and shakes hands with "partners". And the people hope that they will not be fooled for the hundred and first time, everyone believes in a kind and intelligent king.
  25. +3
    5 July 2014 20: 12
    The first stage is the quick rout of the main group of punishers in the Raisin area and the fastest and most profound advance towards Kiev and the right bank as a whole, leaving potential centers of resistance in the rear like Dnepropetrovsk.

    I respect Ishchenko for his position, but let me ask, by what forces is this very defeat? The army of New Russia as such is not visible.
    Moscow must (if there are already militia leaders :) in Russia) organize resistance under a single principle, supply weapons, equipment. It is not necessary to say that this is impossible if it is possible to send food and equipment in hundreds of tons, which means weapons are also possible. The partisans of this war cannot win. Moreover, to hammer the steakbreakers-miners that no one will fight for them, you want to live quietly on your land, do not hell hiding in the face, take an automatic machine, it’s no heavier than a jackhammer, fight.
    1. 0
      6 July 2014 01: 59
      Right. Only without the help of healthy people in Kharkov, Odessa, Kherson and in other cities cannot be achieved a victory over the junta. I really want to think that there are a lot of such people left, people who have nothing left to do but the junta and Natsik!
  26. +3
    5 July 2014 22: 01
    Rostislav, you are a good writer and wrote a lot here. But there are questions. Here is the Zaporizhzhya region where I live, it seems to be like Novorossia. But unlike the DPR-LPR, a large majority of the local population is precisely for the yellow-blue Ukraine. This is evidenced by the presence of a yellow-blue mixture on the windows and balconies in the form of flags. They are not forced to do this; they themselves are posted. A lot of this, honestly, each somewhere around the 30th or 40th hut hangs out. Nobody forces them. Was it in Lugansk and Donetsk? Did not have. On every 8th or 10th wheelbarrow the flags are fastened, also voluntarily. Now embroidered tuning has come into fashion: from shirts to cars. Moreover, one can easily see in the city not even yellow-blue, but the most red-and-black, terrible Bandera flag. Last year it was exclusively the prerogative of Rogulend - Lviv, Ternopol, Ivan-Frankivsk. A handful of bad jerks indulge here with this, although they have not yet been given them for such a cumpole, but this is a separate issue. Zaporizhzhya region adjacent to the Donetsk region, neighbors. From Zaporozhye to Donetsk in a straight line 180 km. And the difference is so huge! In the Dnipropetrovsk region, the difference is perhaps even greater. In the Kharkov region, too, after all, there was no national republic - the People's Republic of China. Well, about the other 3 Novorossiysk regions - Kherson, Nikolaev, Odessa, you can say the same thing. There are neither militias, nor people's republics. No shooting. And here I am, honestly, I’ll say: well, I don’t want my city to work as well as in Slavyansk, Kramatorsk, Lugansk! I do not want bombs, shells to burst from us, and my house begins to crumble with me and my household. Do you believe I just don’t want to! And others also do not want to. This, local Aborigines, must be avoided in all accessible and inaccessible ways. Are we bad from this, that we don’t want it like that? Junta? Ukraine is not Spain, but even there the junta did not turn out to be eternal. Well, there was a junta for a while and Franco was, and then good democracy became. And they also had enough of those who wanted to separate themselves through blood, different Basques and Catalans. But they were ill with this in 1936-1939, and then they became smarter and calmly, without shooting and war, these sensitive issues are resolved in peaceful referenda (this year, I remember, another referendum should be held). Apparently, when you and many others are talking about the militia of New Russia, do you mean the DPR-LPR armed forces, and not the militia of six more regions of the south and east? If militia fighters come from Donetsk, say, to Zaporizhia with weapons, I think that, to put it mildly, they will not be happy here. And hardly support. Well, such an objective reality, I’m not lying! I hate Bandera and most other countrymen, too. But war here is even worse.
    1. 0
      6 July 2014 01: 25
      Here is the Zaporizhzhya region where I live, it’s kind of like New Russia. But unlike the DPR-LPR, a large majority of the local population is precisely for the yellow-blue Ukraine.

      People can be understood. Having hung out the flag of loyalty to the regime on the balcony or in the window, you can sleep peacefully with any beliefs about which it is better to keep quiet at all. This is also evidenced by letters and calls from still Ukrainian friends: "Everything is quiet, calm here. In general, where the junta is, there is peace. The war is where the terrorists have settled." This mantra is repeated by the kindest and most honest people, especially after the tragic events in Odessa on May 2, when the pro-Russian upsurge in Novorossiya ended. But fascism is fascism, and sooner or later they will come for everyone who, under certain circumstances, does not want to become a fascist himself. After all, they add their lackeys fighters very simply: "Kill the enemy! Prove that you are ours! In such a situation the flag on the balcony will not be enough. Conscience will have to be sold, getting blood stained hands. This has already happened to many. Conscience had to pay for the illusion. peace, for visibility, for the mirage of the world.For the real world, a world without fascism, they give their lives, and even the lives of their children, and also give their houses, cars and other property, residents of the DPR and LPR. Human nature is severely damaged by original sin and requires a lot of blood to understand something, to believe in something. Odessa blood seemed not enough to see what fascism is. And now, even seeing the blood flows, people do not understand what awaits them with the final victory of the junta , and they think to protect themselves from it with "zhovto-blakit" flags on the windows, and some, for reliability, and black and red. after the war, for a world without fascism. these lost. All kinds of support and assistance to those who continue to fight against fascism. Come back with Victory, live long! May God protect you!
  27. 0
    6 July 2014 00: 50
    The article is good. Great advantage. The perspective is visible - the world after the war. It will surely come, because all wars end in peace. It is very important that there will be peace not just after the war, but after the Victory, which everyone expects in their own way. I liked that the author outlined the signs of Victory, the main of which will be the International Criminal Tribunal. Peace after the war will be difficult. It will be very important in this new world to show the whole world the truth about what happened in Ukraine over the past 23 years, the history of the birth and development of neo-Nazism, which led to the tragic events of the 2014 year. First of all, this information is truthful, based on numerous documents, confirmed by the international community, and must be provided for compulsory study to every adult resident of the country that is still called Ukraine. It needs to be shown for a long time and continuously on all Ukrainian channels, for as long as a lie, slander, provocation has been shown. The mass consciousness of Ukrainians needs full-scale healing. Without this, it is difficult to imagine peace after the war.
  28. 0
    6 July 2014 01: 54
    The article is normal, although the author does not argue why he is confident that the victory of New Russia will take place soon. In addition, I am absolutely sure that after the victory of the militias, regardless of which borders, the EU will break with the USA, relations between them will deteriorate, even if the USA manages to maintain its financial system. After all, in the place of Ukraine there will be a problem (with greatly reduced Nazi content), which will have to be solved by the Russian Federation and the EU, and the United States will be eliminated, which they always did. Shit, and rake the others after them! am

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