Karine Gevorgyan: Is Turkish sovereignty questionable in the context of the “Big Scenario”?
The leadership of Turkey in the evolving circumstances is in a position that motorists call a "box." This, when several cars, catching up, try to stop the pursued. I mean:
- intraelite conflict,
- protracted public protests with the inevitable erosion of the old ideologies and the absence of a basis for mobilizing consolidation of society,
- strengthening of the Kurdish factor (against the background of strengthening of Iraqi Kurdistan),
- the instability of economic partners, interruptions in the supply of Russian gas passing through Ukraine,
- reducing the intensity of transit flows through the territory of Turkey,
- high risk of terrorist threats from groups previously supported by neutral and even "friendly" forces towards Turkey from the territories of Syria and Iraq,
- deterioration of the sanitary and epidemiological situation, including because of the refugee problem.
An inexperienced driver in such a situation presses the brake pedal. However, the only way out of the “box” is to press on the gas pedal. The measures that Recep Erdogan can take in this situation is a topic for a separate analysis.
Whatever the specifics of the intra-elite conflict in Turkey, those who expect to “beat” the prime minister will find themselves in a position that will deprive them of the opportunity to control the situation in their own country (the “Ukrainian” scenario) and, in fact, sovereignty over the straits. This will lead to the fact that the number of US military vessels fleet will be able to exceed the tonnage limit and formally to help Georgia and Ukraine, the US will increase its presence in the region. However, it is not known whose instrument the Turkish Navy will turn out to be. How will the officers “offended” by the arrest of the ex-commander of the Navy Ozden Ornek behave?
New managers of Turkey will be pushed to support Azerbaijan, which may try to unleash the conflict in Karabakh during planned military exercises, blaming the Armenian side for the attack. Since in this situation the armed forces of Azerbaijan cannot “hurt” the territory of Armenia, a situation will be created in which the partners of Armenia in the CSTO will be forced to take retaliatory actions. One way or another, armed clashes in Transcaucasia, according to the existing agreements, give the USA the right to enter a ten-thousandth contingent to guard part of the Baku-Ceyhan oil pipeline in the South Caucasus (Azerbaijan-Georgia) section.
The outcome of this situation is not predetermined. One thing is inevitable: large-scale destabilization in the macro-region, the fruits of which will not be received by Turkey, although they will be promoted to it, as well as Georgia (expecting a qualitative increase in NATO’s presence on its territory from day to day) - the return of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, Ukraine - the Crimea, and Azerbaijan - Karabakh, Islamists (strike scenario vanguard) - Caliphate. Recent uncontrollable? I do not believe (Stanislavsky).
If Russia moves to more active forms of protecting its interests in Ukraine 2014 no later than September, then at the first stage the sanctions will be strengthened. Then the contradictions between the interests of the European members of NATO from the end of the year will begin to grow, which could lead to an independent exit from the sanctions regime of countries such as France and Italy. Germany’s position is more difficult (because of the secret protocol from 21 in May of 1949), but it’s possible that she will be able to follow the same path. The United States will go to limit the sanctions regime, provided that the situation in the Middle East is completely out of their control. I believe that before 2018, the instrument of sanctions in protecting Russia of its interests will be used actively, but in a mosaic.
The goal of destabilization scenarios is seen in the desire to take under the maximum possible control of the natural resource potential of Russia, as well as other countries (including the states of the Arabian Peninsula), high-quality depopulation of vast territories of the eastern hemisphere. To do this, as a step towards weakening the Russian Federation, it is necessary to weaken its partner buyers along the perimeter of the borders. Such an outcome would put China in the most difficult position, depriving it of the opportunity for maneuver outside its own territory. This scenario started with the events in Libya, as its continuation we can consider the Arab Spring, then the civil war in Syria, the coup in Egypt, the attack of ISIL in Iraq, provoking an intra-elite conflict in Turkey.
I did not touch on the events in Africa, Thailand, the impending explosion in Central Asia, etc., but they also do not refute this scenario. It is curious that, at the same time, for the management of destabilization processes, constant manual adjustments are necessary, which is not the strength of the writers.
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