"Russia is a disappearing world power." Demographic problem, as a threat to national security
Russia in the West is called the “disappearing world power”, the main reason for this is the reduction of the population due to the low birth rate and high mortality - this is the so-called. "Russian cross". Thus, the Berlin Institute for Population and Development announced a large-scale analysis of demographic processes in Russia and other states of the former USSR. The report was called “Vanishing World Power” - this is also the main conclusion of the entire study.
One of the authors of the study, Professor Rainer Klingholz, explained his institute’s interest in this problem by saying that Germany and Europe, on the one hand, and Russia and the post-Soviet states, on the other, are more interdependent. So, Germany depends on the supply of raw materials, the post-Soviet space is a huge market for German industry, and the fate of such a huge neighboring space is not indifferent. The object of the study was taken not only Russia, but the entire post-Soviet space, including the Baltic countries and Central Asia. According to German scientists, this is still an interacting system, where all elements are largely dependent on each other.
Professor Klingholz noted the fact that the demographic processes in the post-Soviet European republics are very similar to those facing Germany. States survived after the Second World War "baby boom", in 1970-s he came to nothing. In Russia and a number of other republics of the former USSR, the situation has been aggravated by the heavy 90, which are beginning to make itself felt by a small number of potential parents.
Although still in the 1960 year of the RSFSR (even without taking into account other republics of the Soviet Union), it occupied the 4-e place in the world in terms of population, second only to China, India and the USA. Now it has fallen to 9-place, behind Indonesia, Brazil, Nigeria, Pakistan and Bangladesh. And soon he will lose his place in the top ten, giving way to Mexico, the Philippines, Egypt, and Ethiopia. By the middle of the 21 century, the Russian Federation could lose another 25 million.
German scientists noted the fact that demographic processes are uneven in different regions of the former USSR, and based on a study of the situation in the 141 region, 5 typical clusters (groups) were identified. Of these, in 4, the population will continue to shrink and grow only in one.
The population is growing and will continue to grow in the republics of Central Asia, in a number of republics of the Caucasus, Tuva, and Altai Territory. The birth rate in these regions is comparable with the countries of North Africa - women give birth to an average 2,78 child, which leads to an increase in population, even in the face of the outflow of a part of the population to work in other regions of the former Soviet Union.
The situation in the 1 cluster is relatively favorable: Moscow, St. Petersburg, Minsk, Kiev, Sevastopol, Yekaterinburg, Nizhny Novgorod, Tatarstan, Krasnodar Territory, Belgorod Region are included here. In them, due to the influx of population from the outside, the decline in population will be minimal or even a slight increase.
Minor losses in the population will be borne by the regions of the second cluster: a number of regions of the Southern and Northern Caucasus, the Baltic States, Western Ukraine, Belarus, here the life expectancy and fertility are slightly higher. There is less death related to alcohol abuse.
The third group is the vast regions of Belarus and Ukraine, Central and North-Western Russia, Krasnoyarsk Territory. There are very fast processes of population reduction due to the extremely low birth rate and the aging of society.
The 4 group includes Moldova, northern Kazakhstan, the Russian Far North, and the Far East. Here, along with the factors of low birth rate and high mortality, the negative trend of people fleeing to more promising regions, big cities from rural areas and small towns, urban-type settlements increases. Thus, in 1989, the Chukotka Autonomous Region lost more than a third of the population, the Magadan Region - more than half, Sakhalin, Kamchatka, the Murmansk Region - almost a third of the population.
The population of Russia fell from 1993 to 2010, from 149 to 142 million people. This is the mass repatriation of ethnic Russians from the former Soviet republics. Without this influx, the fall would have been higher by about 11,5 million. But this reserve potential is actually exhausted, everyone who wanted and could have already moved.
In principle, the reduction of the population, its aging is experienced by many European countries - this is the “pay” for an industrial type of society. But it cannot be said that nothing can be done - there is a positive example of the Third Reich in the field of demographic programs, which proves that even in an industrial society, it is possible to achieve growth of the indigenous population. What is needed is the will of the central government and real demographic and other related state programs aimed at promoting healthy lifestyles, large families, their economic support, development of the healthcare system, affordable housing programs (free for healthy large families), etc.
But our current government, located in the informational captivity of the illusions of neoliberalism, does not understand this. They are on a path that has already proved its complete failure in Europe - attracting the masses of migrants.
A. Mamontov Spetskor. Russian cross
- Alexander Samsonov
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