The loss of Russia because of the revolution in Libya
In March, many witnessed a verbal altercation about the situation in Libya between Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. The president’s rather caustic remarks about the Prime Minister’s attitude to the operation of NATO forces in Libya gave reason to many “specialists” to point out differences in the ruling tandem. At the same time, those who have a drop of common sense, indicate that the positions of the Russian leaders were perfectly verified and, obviously, agreed in advance. Medvedev expressed frank concern about preserving the foreign policy reputation of our state, and the prime minister - preserving Russian capital in Libya.
The riots and political collapse in the states of North Africa and the Middle East may soon cost Russia more than 10 billions of dollars that the military industrial complex will lose due to the breakdown of arms export contracts.
According to the World Tribune, the Libyan market has become the most serious loss for Russia. In 2010, Russia and Libya signed a contract for the supply of various types of weapons from Russia in the amount of 1,3 billion euros. According to the publication, the Jamahiriya planned to purchase 20 combat aircraft, several dozen tanks, two divisions of the Favorit air defense systems, 40 anti-aircraft missile artillery systems Pantsir-C1, an order was planned for the modernization of more than 140 tanks and other weapons. It was also expected that Libya will be the first foreign client of domestic Su-35 fighters. Rosoboronexport was ready to sign a contract for export to Libyan Jamahiriya from 12 to 15 aircraft, which in monetary terms was supposed to bring more than $ 800 million to the Russian state treasury.
Another approximately 1 billion dollars Libya was ready to pay for a batch of Ka-10 Alligator helicopters from 52. The head of Rosoboronexport, Anatoly Isaikin, also announced that Libyans were interested in acquiring 636-type submarines, Molniya-class high-speed attack missile boats, Grad multiple launch rocket systems and the newest Triumph anti-aircraft missile system.
What is the fate of the military equipment ordered by the Libyans now, Anatoly Isaikin did not tell at Le Bourget. It remains only to assume which part of it is idle in the factory warehouses, and which part is deleted from production plans. In any case, as a result of the embargo on Libya, which 10 of March was supported by Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, the losses will apparently be borne not only by Rosoboronexport, but also by the Russian military-industrial complex.
Due to the disruption of supplies to Libya, the loss of the Federal State Unitary Enterprise Rosoboronexport, according to an estimate sounded by the head of the Russian Technologies state corporation Sergey Chemezov, will be at least 4 billion dollars. Anatoly Isaikin somewhat later suggested that under this assessment, obviously, was referring to the lost profit, calculated not for the current year, but for the future. Isaikin recalled that today Russia ranks second in the world in arms exports and is second only to the United States and the government of our country does not intend to lose this position.
In the past, Russia has repeatedly had a negative result in terms of disruption of arms supplies to foreign countries. Take, for example, Algeria’s refusal in March 2008 to buy domestic MiG-29SMT fighters, which has grown into an international scandal. Then representatives of the military aviation Algeria rejected the quality of 15 aircraft. Subsequently, the Russian side conducted its own investigation, and the reason for Algeria's refusal to purchase military aircraft was called groundless. The aircraft that were manufactured under the contract were purchased by the Russian Air Force, which was a wonderful gift for pilots who have long stated the need to modernize their fleet.
Perhaps, in this case, Russia will be able to wrap an unpleasant defeat in Libya in a small but victory of its own armed forces, which will receive modern weapons "out of plan."
But if Russia can compensate for the loss of defense contracts with the modernization of its own army, which is not unimportant, then the loss of contracts concluded by civilian state and commercial enterprises is almost irreparable. A loss must be recognized as significant.
OAO Tatneft. In October 2005, this oil company won a tender to develop oil fields near the city of Gadamis, as well as in the area of the city of Sirta (the hometown of Muammar Gaddafi). Geological exploration and seismic studies were carried out on the basis of the adopted Agreement on Exploration and Production of Final Products (EPSA), signed with the NOC for a period of 30 years. In the period of 2009 — 2010, the first oil was produced in several oil wells drilled.
In February, 2011 of the year, most of the companies working in contract with Tatneft stopped their production activities, and foreign specialists began to leave the state engulfed in the flames of revolution. In the current situation, Tatneft was forced to resort to evacuating personnel and freezing the actions of previously signed contracts. Tatneft has the hope that after the normalization of the situation, the company will be able to resume the work begun. In another scenario, Tatneft’s losses will be at least 193 million dollars already invested in the development of oil fields.
Russian Railways. During the visit of President Vladimir Putin to Tripoli in 2006 in Tripoli, a “railway” contract was signed for a total of 2,2 billion euros. At the end of 2008, the first advance funds began to flow into Russian Railways' bank accounts, the total amount of which amounted to 360 million euros, or 14,4 billion rubles. The implementation of the main works was assigned to subsidiary of Russian Railways JSC Zarubezhstroytechnology. Already in 2009, Zarubezhstroytekhnologiya laid 14 kilometers of tracks, assembled and installed 110 switches. The construction involved 1734 units of equipment, more than 3,5 thousands of builders, including 289 engineers. In 2009, receivables from Zarubezhstroytechnology due to advance payments to other Russian enterprises participating in the project increased 8,9 times (from 217,8 to 1934,6 million rubles), and in 2010, the total amount of contracts exceeded 20 billion rubles.
Gazprom". 20 December 2006 of the Year Gazprom won a tender for the exploration, development and further production of hydrocarbons of block No.19, located on the Libyan shelf of the Mediterranean Sea. Gazprom received full rights to develop the field for the period up to 30 years, and the company's investments should be more than 200 million dollars.
According to Gazprom itself, financial transactions in Libya were largely carried out through the associate Wintershall AG. As a result, as of 31 December 2010, Wintershall AG’s revenues amounted to 65,4 billion rubles, Gazprom’s investments - 11,0 billion rubles, net profit - 4,1 billion rubles, including Gazprom’s net profit share - 2,0 billion rubles. Thus, due to the tense situation in Libya, the possible losses of Gazprom, according to preliminary estimates, may amount to more than 361 million dollars.
OK "RUSAL". 22 September 2008 of the year RUSAL signed a Memorandum of Understanding on the formation of a joint venture with the Libyan State Fund for Social and Economic Development (ESDF) to implement an ambitious project to build an energy complex in the North African state. According to preliminary data, the complex will include an aluminum plant with a capacity of up to 600 thousand tons per year and a modern gas power plant with a capacity of more than 1500 MW.
The plant in Libya was supposed to become 3, in terms of aluminum production, the enterprise of O. Deripaska after the Russian Krasnoyarsk and Bratsk aluminum plants. However, with the onset of the economic crisis in the world, and in 2011, the revolution in Libya, RUSAL pushed the ambitious project to the background.
The riots and political collapse in the states of North Africa and the Middle East may soon cost Russia more than 10 billions of dollars that the military industrial complex will lose due to the breakdown of arms export contracts.
According to the World Tribune, the Libyan market has become the most serious loss for Russia. In 2010, Russia and Libya signed a contract for the supply of various types of weapons from Russia in the amount of 1,3 billion euros. According to the publication, the Jamahiriya planned to purchase 20 combat aircraft, several dozen tanks, two divisions of the Favorit air defense systems, 40 anti-aircraft missile artillery systems Pantsir-C1, an order was planned for the modernization of more than 140 tanks and other weapons. It was also expected that Libya will be the first foreign client of domestic Su-35 fighters. Rosoboronexport was ready to sign a contract for export to Libyan Jamahiriya from 12 to 15 aircraft, which in monetary terms was supposed to bring more than $ 800 million to the Russian state treasury.
Another approximately 1 billion dollars Libya was ready to pay for a batch of Ka-10 Alligator helicopters from 52. The head of Rosoboronexport, Anatoly Isaikin, also announced that Libyans were interested in acquiring 636-type submarines, Molniya-class high-speed attack missile boats, Grad multiple launch rocket systems and the newest Triumph anti-aircraft missile system.
What is the fate of the military equipment ordered by the Libyans now, Anatoly Isaikin did not tell at Le Bourget. It remains only to assume which part of it is idle in the factory warehouses, and which part is deleted from production plans. In any case, as a result of the embargo on Libya, which 10 of March was supported by Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, the losses will apparently be borne not only by Rosoboronexport, but also by the Russian military-industrial complex.
Due to the disruption of supplies to Libya, the loss of the Federal State Unitary Enterprise Rosoboronexport, according to an estimate sounded by the head of the Russian Technologies state corporation Sergey Chemezov, will be at least 4 billion dollars. Anatoly Isaikin somewhat later suggested that under this assessment, obviously, was referring to the lost profit, calculated not for the current year, but for the future. Isaikin recalled that today Russia ranks second in the world in arms exports and is second only to the United States and the government of our country does not intend to lose this position.
In the past, Russia has repeatedly had a negative result in terms of disruption of arms supplies to foreign countries. Take, for example, Algeria’s refusal in March 2008 to buy domestic MiG-29SMT fighters, which has grown into an international scandal. Then representatives of the military aviation Algeria rejected the quality of 15 aircraft. Subsequently, the Russian side conducted its own investigation, and the reason for Algeria's refusal to purchase military aircraft was called groundless. The aircraft that were manufactured under the contract were purchased by the Russian Air Force, which was a wonderful gift for pilots who have long stated the need to modernize their fleet.
Perhaps, in this case, Russia will be able to wrap an unpleasant defeat in Libya in a small but victory of its own armed forces, which will receive modern weapons "out of plan."
But if Russia can compensate for the loss of defense contracts with the modernization of its own army, which is not unimportant, then the loss of contracts concluded by civilian state and commercial enterprises is almost irreparable. A loss must be recognized as significant.
OAO Tatneft. In October 2005, this oil company won a tender to develop oil fields near the city of Gadamis, as well as in the area of the city of Sirta (the hometown of Muammar Gaddafi). Geological exploration and seismic studies were carried out on the basis of the adopted Agreement on Exploration and Production of Final Products (EPSA), signed with the NOC for a period of 30 years. In the period of 2009 — 2010, the first oil was produced in several oil wells drilled.
In February, 2011 of the year, most of the companies working in contract with Tatneft stopped their production activities, and foreign specialists began to leave the state engulfed in the flames of revolution. In the current situation, Tatneft was forced to resort to evacuating personnel and freezing the actions of previously signed contracts. Tatneft has the hope that after the normalization of the situation, the company will be able to resume the work begun. In another scenario, Tatneft’s losses will be at least 193 million dollars already invested in the development of oil fields.
Russian Railways. During the visit of President Vladimir Putin to Tripoli in 2006 in Tripoli, a “railway” contract was signed for a total of 2,2 billion euros. At the end of 2008, the first advance funds began to flow into Russian Railways' bank accounts, the total amount of which amounted to 360 million euros, or 14,4 billion rubles. The implementation of the main works was assigned to subsidiary of Russian Railways JSC Zarubezhstroytechnology. Already in 2009, Zarubezhstroytekhnologiya laid 14 kilometers of tracks, assembled and installed 110 switches. The construction involved 1734 units of equipment, more than 3,5 thousands of builders, including 289 engineers. In 2009, receivables from Zarubezhstroytechnology due to advance payments to other Russian enterprises participating in the project increased 8,9 times (from 217,8 to 1934,6 million rubles), and in 2010, the total amount of contracts exceeded 20 billion rubles.
Gazprom". 20 December 2006 of the Year Gazprom won a tender for the exploration, development and further production of hydrocarbons of block No.19, located on the Libyan shelf of the Mediterranean Sea. Gazprom received full rights to develop the field for the period up to 30 years, and the company's investments should be more than 200 million dollars.
According to Gazprom itself, financial transactions in Libya were largely carried out through the associate Wintershall AG. As a result, as of 31 December 2010, Wintershall AG’s revenues amounted to 65,4 billion rubles, Gazprom’s investments - 11,0 billion rubles, net profit - 4,1 billion rubles, including Gazprom’s net profit share - 2,0 billion rubles. Thus, due to the tense situation in Libya, the possible losses of Gazprom, according to preliminary estimates, may amount to more than 361 million dollars.
OK "RUSAL". 22 September 2008 of the year RUSAL signed a Memorandum of Understanding on the formation of a joint venture with the Libyan State Fund for Social and Economic Development (ESDF) to implement an ambitious project to build an energy complex in the North African state. According to preliminary data, the complex will include an aluminum plant with a capacity of up to 600 thousand tons per year and a modern gas power plant with a capacity of more than 1500 MW.
The plant in Libya was supposed to become 3, in terms of aluminum production, the enterprise of O. Deripaska after the Russian Krasnoyarsk and Bratsk aluminum plants. However, with the onset of the economic crisis in the world, and in 2011, the revolution in Libya, RUSAL pushed the ambitious project to the background.
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