New Russia will win economy

The collapse of Ukraine will lead to the competition of two economic models. The industrial alternative of the South-East looks more profitable than the neoliberal dreams of Kiev

Cancellation of the mandate for the introduction of troops into Ukraine, issued by the Federation Council to President Putin, the conditional truce announced by Poroshenko, the semblance of negotiations between Kiev, Moscow and the Southeast — all of these events raised the debate about the future of the proclaimed republics of the New Russia and the degree of Russian support for Ukrainian militias . A tactical pause, a prologue to a big war, or an attempt to balance the geopolitical map - whatever versions are built today, the fact remains obvious: Russia, in any case, will have to build individual economic, political and cultural relations with Donetsk and Lugansk, rendering comprehensive diplomatic and financial assistance to the new republics .

Thus, there remains the relevance of the dialogue on the programs for the development and formation of the statehood of Novorossia, which continues to be an Expert holding in the pages of the journal and in the form of a broad discussion with the Russian intellectual circles. The next round table on this topic was held on Thursday at the MIA “Russia Today”.
How much has the agenda of the Ukrainian crisis changed in connection with the “peace stream” that has emerged recently? The panelists felt that the lack of confidence in Kiev’s promises is already a common place, which, however, is very well recognized in the South-East. Militiamen wash with blood every new truce announced. Disagreements in the Ukrainian oligarchs, who seized power in the country, do not even hide the local media. The collapse of the country in fact has come to pass, the question is how the new configuration of relations between the parties to the conflict will be built.

In conditions when the Ukrainian punitive operation in the South-East has virtually stalled, Moscow in the short term had the opportunity for maneuver. “The withdrawal of the mandate put an end to the hysteria among the part of Russian society that demanded the introduction of troops into Ukraine,” said Alexander Prokhanov, editor-in-chief of Zavtra newspaper. - But the mandate itself played a role: under the umbrella of the mandate, Crimea was annexed, this mandate, in fact, contributed to the formation of Novorossia, as well as the start of peace talks. Putin’s decisions ensured the preservation of all Western European gas, economic, philosophical architecture. At the same time, if negotiations nevertheless take place, they will resemble the Palestinian-Israeli dialogue, which lasts for an infinitely long time, fraught with ruptures, attacks, and blood. Both parties use a pause for the accumulation of forces. And in case of the slightest breakdown of the negotiations, a new conflict will begin. ”
“The abolition of the mandate to use force is a threat to the peace process,” said Mikhail Remizov, president of the National Strategy Institute. - Because the mandate - was a figure of political pressure on Kiev. Today, the issue of recognizing the Lugansk and Donetsk people's republics may be a new lever of pressure. Russia must go on the path of unilateral recognition, otherwise Kiev lacks incentives to negotiate. Poroshenko is under severe external and internal pressure. His electorate will not accept the surrender of positions in the Donbas. The repressive apparatus, which was formed on the basis of the National Guard, will not accept delivery either. If Poroshenko’s position is considered defeatist, he will inevitably face enormous pressure. In addition, he will not be able to win the elections to the Verkhovna Rada, which is important for him. He can only win through the conqueror of Donbass. "

“Today, the military issue remains the key issue,” rector Yevgeny Kozhokin of the Academy of Labor and Social Relations said. - The fact that representatives of Kiev and the South-East turned out to be at the same negotiating table is a tiny light at the end of the tunnel. But politicians in Kiev do not want a radical victory, it will undermine their position. The National Guard is not only an armed formation, it is a very serious political factor. Personnel soldiers do not want to shoot. And the National Guard is ready to fight both militia and civilians. ”

Armed confrontation in Lugansk and Donbas is likely to continue regardless of the pace and composition of the participants in the negotiation process. Too different and irreconcilable demands of the parties. At the same time sluggish clashes are beneficial to almost everyone, as they strengthen the bargaining position. Except, of course, civilians. But in the medium and long term, the loss of loyalty of the population can be sentenced by the Southeast militia movement.

“In this war, the decisive factor is the support of the population. And the newly-formed republics should take this into account in the context of the state-building process, ”Vitaly Leibyn, the chief editor of Russian Reporter magazine, is convinced. “Today, most of the locals are set rather not for the militia, but against the Kiev authorities. Moreover, in small towns this support is enormous, unlike the big ones, where the middle class and business suffer from both the Ukrainian military and the actions of the militia. ”
Southeast Alternative

The Ukrainian Maidan was a naive, but understandable and popular project: the rejection of the Soviet past and the construction of a new national state from scratch with a focus on the European Union. Southeast people need an equally clear and understandable alternative to this project. “You can fight against neo-Nazism, you can fight under the flag of Russia, you can fight against the Kiev authorities. But it is difficult to fight for the region, even if we call it Novorossia. It is necessary to formulate a renewed civilization project, - continues Vitaly Leibin. - People in the South-East are fighting today for Russia. And the majority of the population there are sure that they are upholding the idea of ​​a civilization that goes back to the Soviet Union. In the sense that the USSR was a productive force, launched ships into space, built factories. Therefore, it is so important to create a technical competition in the project of Novorossia. In the programs of both the Lugansk and Donetsk republics, the idea of ​​immediately entering into industrialization runs like a thread. This and the refusal to increase tariffs, the modernization of factories and the opening of new industries. Such plans are in conflict with the policies of Western Ukraine, in view of the fact that they will have to implement the recommendations of the IMF. ”

Interestingly, within the framework of a divided Ukraine, in the distant future, a model of competition between two economic systems, industrial and post-industrial, can be drawn. Today, with all the paucity of development programs in the Kiev government, the neoliberal “brain power” prevails. In this context, it seems right for economists in Western Ukraine to completely abandon the “unprofitable” industrial Donbass and reduce the industrial sector across the country. Actually, a radical increase in tariffs in accordance with the recommendations of the IMF, as well as the points of the agreement on European integration, does not provide any other choice to the country's economy. The powerful IT-cluster, the cluster of nuclear energy, military-technical products, as well as the development of agriculture with the creation of a full-fledged processing of raw materials for the agro-industrial complex are called upon to be the locomotive of the economy. In the dreams of the Kiev authorities the rapid growth of the middle class and the influx of highly professional specialists. The resources for the formation of a new type of economy are rooted in reducing corruption, nationalizing the property of disloyal oligarchs and loans from Western allies.

The damage of the neoliberal model has long been evident to most countries of the world. Such plans can bury the Ukrainian economy already at the stage of model formation. And in such conditions, the success of a competing industrial project in the South-East may become an attractive alternative for the regions neighboring Dnepropetrovsk, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhia, Kherson, Mykolaiv, Odessa and others, which opens up a wide window of opportunities for long-term geopolitical solutions. The main question is whether Donbass can, in principle, show a positive development dynamic.

The materialization of New Russia

“The leaders of the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics have come up with very ambitious development programs. They suggest raising the standard of living of the population to the level of the neighboring Russian regions, set the task of increasing production at high rates of 25-30%. How realistic is this? - ponders the adviser to the president of Russia Sergey Glazyev. - It is important to understand why today the standard of living in the Donbas in 2-3 times lower than, for example, in the Rostov region.
It seems to be a prosperous region in terms of economic specialization. But it is a “cash cow” for the rest of Ukraine with a positive trade balance of 8,5 billion dollars. Kiev simply pumps out both income and currency from the Donbass. Donbass is losing even more due to the offshoring of the corporations that work there. For many years, purposefully, the oligarchic structures have been plundering the revenue base. The third reason is the absence of mechanisms for the extraction of natural rent in Ukrainian legislation. In Russia, about two thirds of the natural rent is taken to the state’s treasury through MET and export duties. In Ukraine, the source of the wealth of many oligarchs is just natural rent. Another source of super profits is the low wages of Donbass workers.

That is why Donbass oligarchs are the richest people in Europe. At the same time, they also force the state to subsidize local industry. If we succeed in removing this oligarchic parasitism, all the goals of the leaders of the Donbass and Luhansk people's republics are absolutely real.

What is needed for the economic success of the New Russia? Need a world. We need integration with Russia, with our market. Return of the tax base - for this it is necessary to create a mechanism for registering property rights in the republics. All entrepreneurs who want to work honestly and pay taxes must re-register their businesses. With full preservation and respect for the rights of private property. If you want to work, come back from offshore companies, from Kiev, to your employees, to your enterprises.

In the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics there is a chance to build a simple and clear tax model. I would recommend to refuse VAT and replace it with a small sales tax. Make a roll on the natural rent, environmental payments ".
It is obvious that Russia in the near future may take a number of measures to increase the competitiveness of the republics of New Russia. The signing by Kiev of an agreement with the European Union is forcing Moscow to protect its trade interests by means of protective duties on Ukrainian goods. Donetsk and Lugansk should be an exception in this economic battle. Strengthen the industrial power of the republics can special prices for energy resources at the domestic Russian tariffs. It is necessary to consider measures for the in-depth integration of the industry of the Southeast with the Russian market. Plans of point crediting of certain industrial sectors of the republics will be useful.

“We are witnessing the materialization of Novorossia,” says Oleg Bondarenko, director of the Russian-Ukrainian Information Center. - The Prime Minister of the Donetsk People's Republic, Alexander Boroday, announced the commencement of the payment of compensation to the families of the victims as part of the punitive operation. The program of supplements to pensions, scholarships, public sector wages has been started. Since July 1 Kiev announced another increase in utility tariffs, in general, already up to 200%. In turn, the DPR government fixes tariffs at the level of 2013 of the year.

We see how the de-oligarchization of Donbass takes place when the oligarchs are left with assets, but they are barred from making political decisions. Recall that the Maidan began with calls to stop the family of Yanukovich, as the main oligarchs of Ukraine. Now, in practice, the policy of deoligarchization is the responsibility of the leadership of the LC and the DPR, which cannot but arouse the sympathy of the people of Ukraine.

The other day the constitution of the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics was declared. This union is consolidated as a confederation. As such, this project is attractive for neighboring regions against the background of the unitary policy of Kiev. It gives a certain freedom of action, both economic and political. In confederal status, the Novorossia project is undoubtedly open for the subsequent accession of other regions of Ukraine, if they wish. "

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  1. +8
    27 June 2014 08: 21
    With both hands FOR !!!
    Forward New Russia!
    "We are our own, we will build a new world ...!" Without oligarchs, corruption, prostitution and other trash acquired on the independent outskirts of a foreign state!;)
    1. Reasonable, 2,3
      27 June 2014 08: 30
      But in general, it has long been clear. Hare slogans.
      1. +6
        27 June 2014 08: 53
        There was a proposal: to appoint Glazyev as Minister of Development and Strategic Initiatives of New Russia ... Unanimously.
        1. zzz
          27 June 2014 10: 08
          Quote: subbtin.725
          There was a proposal: to appoint Glazyev as Minister of Development and Strategic Initiatives of New Russia ... Unanimously.

          Nah, we ourselves need him. Maybe the president will finally appoint him instead of Medvedev. And he can just advise New Russia.
          1. +8
            27 June 2014 10: 42
            I completely agree. Medvedev is not the prime minister ...
          2. WKS
            27 June 2014 11: 15
            Quote: zzz
            In conditions when the Ukrainian punitive operation in the Southeast actually stalled

            Wow - stalled. Donbass is packed with punitive units, the centers of resistance of the republics are practically blocked in cities. The governing bodies of New Russia are in their infancy, in the territory of the proclaimed republics, actual anarchy. Punishers build up and concentrate their forces and can strike at any moment. That's when the liberation of Donbass from Bandera punitive is completed, then it will be possible to say that the Ukrainian punitive operation in the Southeast has virtually stalled. In the meantime, it is clear that a tough fight is ahead.
            1. zzz
              27 June 2014 12: 14
              Quote: wks
              WKS Today, 11:15 ↑ New
              Quote: zzz
              In conditions when the Ukrainian punitive operation in the Southeast actually stalled
              Wow - stalled.

              Dear WKS! Where did you get this quote? I didn’t write this, and I didn’t keep it in my mind ..
              1. 0
                27 June 2014 22: 37
                Read the fourth paragraph - it is with this phrase that it begins: "In conditions when the Ukrainian punitive operation in the South-East actually died out ..." and so on.
        2. Fin
          27 June 2014 10: 09
          Quote: subbtin.725
          There was a proposal: to appoint Glazyev as Minister of Development and Strategic Initiatives of New Russia ..

          It would be nice, you can also be an adviser on economics. DAM, we have an untouchable effective manager, at home Glazyev can not do anything. And there you can create a new economic model, under the roof of Russia.
          But first, to expel the entire riffraff such as the National Guard and the Armed Forces of Ukraine, to begin the restoration of the destroyed otherwise the people will not understand why all these deprivations.
    2. +2
      27 June 2014 09: 17
      Now the task is to preserve the factories and factories to the maximum, so that there is something to dance for for the economic development of New Russia.
    3. The comment was deleted.
  2. +3
    27 June 2014 08: 26
    What is needed for the economic success of New Russia?

    We need a strong state that can firmly stop the wave of anarchism and banditry.
    1. +3
      27 June 2014 08: 54
      Hmm ... The economy is definitely South = East RESTORE ... !!! But first NEED TO CLEAR the Southeast from the Nazis !!! Everything has its time!!!
  3. +4
    27 June 2014 08: 31
    Doctor "hunger", doctor "cold" and the orderly "mortgage-eviction" hurry to Urkaina.
  4. 0
    27 June 2014 08: 33
    I really hope that in Novorossia there will be something new both economically and politically. I hope to end the oligarchs there and the most important thing is not to let our people go .. (otherwise it will work out as always) Glory to New Russia!
  5. evilrussian
    27 June 2014 08: 37
    The stupidity of the Ukrainian authorities will hit the Ukrainians themselves. The poor, destroyed Ukraine in the Constitutional Court will never be accepted. In addition to Russia, Ukraine has nowhere to go.
  6. +3
    27 June 2014 09: 02
    The creation of New Russia has just begun, most of the territory of the republic is occupied by dill. And already, continuous winning slogans ... It is still not clear how long the war will last and how it will end. Only recovery can take years and a ton of money.
    1. +1
      27 June 2014 10: 50
      1. 0
        29 June 2014 11: 28
        Absolutely correct. The fifth collone is officials and oligarchs .., all the bastard who does not allow the country to develop ..
    2. The comment was deleted.
  7. +1
    27 June 2014 09: 04
    I agree that Novorossia has good potential, so everything will be fine.
    1. +3
      27 June 2014 09: 15
      Good potential is not an economy. But the economy cannot function in conditions of war. Now, peace negotiations and the withdrawal and disarmament of illegal Ukrainian formations - law enforcement officers, oligarchbattalions, the National Guard are an urgent problem. The first task should be to ensure the safety of the population.
      And judging by the experience, it is much easier to agree with opposing army units.
      But the second task is the development of the economy. And here the lack of oligarchic influence will certainly play a role in economic development.
      Plus the article.
  8. 0
    27 June 2014 09: 06
    good intentions and very ambitious, but first you need to start a business with the fight against the hydra of corruption, it is she who can destroy everything from the beginning, the war will pass, passions will subside, the time will come to create, then all sorts of "businessmen" will appear, whatever is in power or in the national economy .. ... bully by the way, corruption has not disappeared now, it’s just that its presence is not so seen behind the war
  9. Ivan 63
    27 June 2014 09: 19
    What does it mean to provide the two regions with the most favored nation treatment? And how will it look in practice, did anyone think about this? Really the hope that Kiev (Washington) will be seen through the fingers as the economy will flourish in the Donbass and the Luhansk region, the pravoseki will drop automatic machines and sit on a tractor and go into production, in general, an idyll. Yes, full of those, baby talk, then the answer to one question is what they are doing in Russia 5 million. Ukrainian migrant workers, if they have such prospects in their own places and this is not counting those who have gone to Europe? And what development if the hryvnia is controlled by Kiev. The answer is either partial sovereignty or entry (return) to Russia.
    1. +1
      27 June 2014 09: 46
      And so, as we lived throughout the entire socialist period: one of the first Leninist decrees was implemented all the years, namely, on the priority development of the national peoples. They visited all the republics of the USSR and wondered how differently we live with them. And at the time of the collapse of the USSR, each republic declared that the whole country lived for its account, but now, finally, having finally shaken Russia off its tail, they will HOW to heal. The result is noticeable. And this is despite the fact that Russia has settled (in various ways) on all internal and external debts. Learn the experience.
  10. Cheldon
    27 June 2014 09: 49
    Glazyev as always to the point. Everything is always decided by money. But in order to have a lot of them, you need to rob someone. And here you need strength. The Romanovs are an extremely stupid dynasty. For example, in the Crimean War, ours with smoothbore, the English-French with rifled. Fedorov created an automatic nicholas resolution, and where we get up cartridges. Last November, the last batch of weapons-grade uranium from an agreed 500 tons to the United States was shipped to the Atlantic Navigator. This deal is called Chernomyrdin-Gor. And in the United States pulling out nuclear teeth from Russia. Reactors in Krasnoyarsk drowned. The question for Putinoids is what arguments we have left. Hanged with Shoigu stickers with his biathlon. Or horror stories for ladies of indefinite age in the form of a sudden check of combat readiness. You can continue, but there are hardly any daredevils who want to know the truth. I sincerely hope that I’m wrong.
  11. 0
    27 June 2014 09: 54

    The Ukrainian Maidan had a naive, but understandable and popular project: abandoning the Soviet past and building a new national state from scratch with an orientation towards the European Union.

    It is impossible to build a state from scratch, it will always live with the memory of past times, whether anyone wants it or not. So the original message from Maidan was incorrect. As a result, we got what we have.
  12. +2
    27 June 2014 10: 02
    Nobody will beat anyone !!! Who to win ?! We are all kindred into one knot !!! Another thing is that America bought another state for itself, and we are looking at the check, instead of giving the seller a mug ...
  13. +2
    27 June 2014 10: 11
    Mr. Glazyev is a great determinant of wind direction! This type of any party is needed .. For a while ...
  14. Oleg Yugan 2
    27 June 2014 10: 20
    The process has just begun, the buds have just appeared, and you are already talking about the fruits lol They wouldn’t eat the pests, but the tracks are different. There is no dichlorvos to get rid of - the remedy for NUCLEAR is needed.
    But the process is on. It’s hard but it’s going.
  15. 0
    27 June 2014 10: 52
    The trend is good, wait and see. I hope they succeed.
  16. de bouillon
    27 June 2014 11: 37
    What is New Russia ??

    Donetsk and Lugansk regions are controlled by DNR / LNR of 30-40 percent. If you look at the map, then this is a small appendix in a circle: Slavyansk-Kramatorsk-Lugansk-Donetsk-border with Russia

    3 months there is a confrontation, and the militias could not gain a foothold either in the Zaporizhzhya, or in the Kharkov and Dnepropetrovsk regions.

    Yesterday I was surprised to learn that there is still a National Guard military unit in Donetsk. or for example the city of Artyomovsk between Kramatorsk and Lugansk is also a military base. Those. even on their territory, militias do not have full control.

    Is it because there is no Russian army ?? There is simply nowhere to enter it.
  17. 0
    27 June 2014 11: 51
    The militia has blocked the plant on components for Motor Sich. Interestingly, it will affect the supplies to us. The engines are still supplying.

    DONETSK, June 27 - RIA Novosti. The militia stopped production of some parts for helicopters of the Ukrainian army, said Deputy Minister of Defense of the Donetsk People’s Republic Fedor Berezin.
    Militias report that they recaptured the Grad MLRS in the battle near Kramatorsk
    "In the town of Snezhnoe, we blocked an enterprise that produces blades for helicopters and supplies them to Motor Sich. These are the same helicopters that are bombing us," Berezin told reporters on Friday.

    RIA Novosti
  18. MSA
    27 June 2014 12: 05
    The correct path is chosen, the main thing now is not to stray.
  19. wef
    27 June 2014 12: 17
    Theories. Many factors are either ignored or ignored.
    Yes, there is potential. But we must take into account the fact that the regions are dependent on neighboring ones (energy, water, transport ...).
    People leave the region - a working-age population, with education and work experience. None of the studies and recommendations will return these people confidence in the future.
    If they went to work in the Russian Federation before the war (and not always by workers), then after its completion these people are unlikely to work in Ukraine.
    Advice and forecasts are easy to give. See how many different institutes and research funds we have. Give advice on any occasion. Build forecasts and models. So what? They also see potential. These people would be in real conditions of the economy.
  20. Andrey82
    27 June 2014 12: 34
    First you need to restore the destroyed houses, enterprises. All this takes time and more fin. funds. Without the help of Russia it will be very difficult. In addition, the war is not over yet.
  21. 0
    27 June 2014 13: 36
    Militias need to be more discriminating. Most of the plant’s products are used to provide the Russian order for the supply by the Motor Sich association of 270 helicopter engines per year to the Klimovsk plant in St. Petersburg. According to the leadership of the association, the supply of engines is on (went ?????) on schedule, despite the statements by the Kiev leadership on the termination of cooperation with Russia in the military-industrial complex.
    1. +1
      27 June 2014 22: 48
      Turntable engines were considered a "dual-use product". wink . And there is no such ban, only products for the military-industrial complex. And not all MI-117s have been delivered to amers under contracts.
      The Kiev authorities cut the branch on which they sit, and they themselves accelerate the process. Or do they think that the unemployed will then be thrown to the Eastern Front? It should be borne in mind that a significant part of the Donbass coal went to the west of Ukraine. In short, a chain reaction, as in the collapse of the Union. Donbass coal, gas, oil and uranium for nuclear power plants come from the Russian Federation. If it is "difficult", then the collapse of the energy sector of Ukraine will come, and with this everything will fall down, Ukraine will become an agrarian country. To add its EUROINTEGRATION in the economy, which was signed today (another "acceleration" in cutting the cloth on which they sit) ... there is zero chance. And if the Russian Federation also introduces duties on Ukrainian goods, as for everyone (another kick of acceleration), and even Poroshenko's "property" expropriates on its territory (Poroshenko's GDP with his property-cond. Factories in the Russian Federation and something in Crimea is -can hold tightly in one place) ... That Wild Field will remain.
      DNI and LC need to quickly create their own branches of government and take all their cash flows into their hands. But the most important thing is to quickly integrate into our economic space. This question may become a question of survival for the first time. hi
      I somehow asked about the economic opportunities of Mariupol. And I was very surprised. What is there not only? And it's on a half million city.
  22. 0
    27 June 2014 22: 07
    Romance win.
  23. 0
    27 June 2014 23: 47
    Quote: subbtin.725
    There was a proposal: to appoint Glazyev as Minister of Development and Strategic Initiatives of New Russia ... Unanimously.

    With whom unanimously?

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