Military solution of the Ukrainian crisis
Parallels ...1. The Eritrean War of Independence went from 1961 to 1991. But the most interesting are her last three years. Despite the overwhelming superiority in manpower and technology of the metropolis, Ethiopia fell apart like a house of cards within a few days, following the defeat of its army corps under Afabet. The government fled the country. Causes of defeat - a political crisis, an economic collapse, the reluctance of the army to fight, demoralization of society.
2. War of Abkhazia for independence, 1992-1993 Despite the superiority in manpower and technology, the war was lost by the Georgians. 16-27 September 1993, the battle broke out that went into history of the conflict as the “Battle of Sukhum”, which had fatal consequences for the already demoralized Georgian army. In order to strengthen their grouping, the Georgians tried to transfer troops to Sukhum on civilian aircraft. The Abkhazians launched a real hunt for airliners and managed to shoot down several aircraft from MANPADS on boats that landed at the Sukhum airport. The reasons for the defeat of Georgia are the internal crisis of the system, the economic collapse, the reluctance of the army to fight, the lack of support from society.
3. First Chechen war. Despite the overwhelming superiority in manpower and equipment of the Russian troops, 6 August 1996, Chechen detachments from 850 to 2000, the militants attacked and captured Grozny. Simultaneously with the storming of Grozny, the Chechens also captured the cities of Gudermes (taken by them without a fight) and Argun (Russian troops kept only the building of the commandant's office). It was the failure of the Russian troops in Grozny that led to the signing of the Khasavyurt cease-fire agreements. Does it make sense again to voice the reasons for the defeat?
4. Our days. Iraq, June 2014. Despite the overwhelming superiority in manpower and technology (15 times!), American weapon and standards, three Iraqi divisions near Mosul, of which one tank, fled to 800 ISIS fighters, who are now actively building up their forces at the expense of new supporters and are preparing to storm Baghdad.
What is the essence of these parallels with the situation in Ukraine? The crisis of the state system, a very realistic economic collapse, a growing unwillingness to die for leaders who do not reflect the aspirations of the people, a gradual understanding of the harmfulness of domestic nationalism.
There is also a military component: war in the Southeast is a war in the conditions of urban agglomerations, the most difficult form of hostilities. Donbass is the most urbanized region of Ukraine, the distance between Kramatorsk and Slavyansk is 15 km, and the border between Donetsk and Makeevka is purely arbitrary. It is possible to win in such a war only in the conditions of support of the local population or genocide - the destruction of cities and infrastructure with heavy artillery with the passage of the local population through filtration camps with subsequent resettlement in the regions of the loyalists.
What is the level of support of the population in the Donbass of the LC and the DPR, now only intelligence knows. But indirect evidence suggests that Kiev will not be able to win this war, everything that could be captured with little blood has already been captured, only big blood and even more destruction will continue, which is why Poroshenko went to negotiate with the rebels.
Drawn by rock Ukraine goes to a fatal military defeat, similar to those listed above. It is only a matter of time. Questions "where" and "how" leave to the consideration of site visitors who are knowledgeable in military affairs.
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