Donbass Stalingrad for Kiev: a fundamental turning point in the civil war in Ukraine
In the civil war in Ukraine there was a radical change. The fact that this is a fracture and how it threatens Kiev and Novorossia will be discussed below.
Donbass strayed and matured
First, the forces of the militia of Novorossia were not only not crushed by the Ukrainian army and punitive detachments, but also strengthened, even if they suffered losses. In particular:
1. In the militia appeared MANPADS in sufficient quantities to close the airspace of Donbass;
2. Aviation of the Kiev authorities flies blindly over the Donbass, because militias destroyed or took control of radar stations in the controlled territory;
3. Kiev Aviation Group (Army Aviation and Air Force) suffered significant losses and is forced to use everything that can fly, including helicopters with UN symbols;
4. The militia appeared heavy weapons, in particular Tanks T-64, MLRS Grad and barreled artillery in quantities sufficient not only to deter, but also for a gradual transition to the offensive;
5. After massive shelling and destruction of infrastructure, the influx of volunteers increased dramatically and the formation of new militia groups, including from miners who left the faces of the stopped Akhmetov mines, accelerated;
6. Strengthening unity of command in the leadership of the militia. At the same time, in parts of Kiev and Kaganat there were signs of disorder and vacillation;
7. The border is still under the control of the militia.
Kiev is exhausted
Secondly, the Kiev punitive machine began to run out of steam, using almost all of its reserves, which caused discontent among residents of regions loyal to Kiev:
1. Kiev units suffer huge losses that they have to hide from the public;
2. The facts of blocking of transport communications and disruption by parents of conscripts to send them to the front were revealed;
3. Kiev authorities are not able to plan operations not only at a strategic, but even at a tactical level;
4. In the V / H controlled by Kiev repair almost everything that is possible. This indicates the exhaustion of stocks of workable machinery and equipment;
5. The facts of manipulation with the purchase of equipment, such as the supply of body armor with insufficient protection class, have become known;
6. In Kiev, in early June, rallies were held with the requirement to provide the soldiers with the necessary equipment and only then send them to the eastern front;
7. On the territory controlled by Kiev, dormant resistance cells became more active: there are facts of propaganda of campaign materials for Novorossia in the Kherson, Kharkov and Odessa regions;
8. The eastern border is no longer controlled by Ukraine. The moral spirit of the border parts of Kiev has fallen to such a state that they leave the frontier guards and, at best, retreat deep into the territory of Ukraine, and in the worst (for Kiev) case they cross the Russian border, hiding there. It is noteworthy that the Russian Federation does not pursue Ukrainian border guards who fled from Ukraine.
Insignificance of the Ukrainian elite
The incompetence of the Kiev authorities, its absolute lack of negotiability and insignificance as managers were revealed:
1. The standard of living in Ukraine has plummeted: instead of “Europe”, there has been a tremendous increase in utility payments, payments and prices for goods;
2. Accelerating economic collapse: the closure of production, decline in economic activity, rising unemployment;
3. The breakdown of gas negotiations indicates that Kiev has no money. No in the sense of "none at all";
4. In the energy sector, a state of emergency has been introduced, caused not only by the cessation of gas pumping into storage facilities, but also by future interruptions in the supply of coal;
5. Filling the budget is broken, Kiev lending is frozen, which forced the acting. authorities ask creditors for debt restructuring.
Devour each other: the intensification of interspecific struggle
The struggle between the Euromaidan faction, Kaganat them. "Beni" Kolomoisky and Tymoshenko's group:
1. The elites of Ukraine have chosen the line of simultaneous warfare all with all on several fronts and regular steps to each other;
2. President of Euromaidan Petro Poroshenko goes to an open war with the head of Kaganat Igor Kolomoisky, as evidenced by the open disobedience of Kolomoisky Poroshenko’s decision on a temporary truce in the Donbas and the leak of Poroshenko’s intention to remove Kolomoisky and his protege from power;
3. In Odessa, the mayor’s election was won by Gennady Trukhanov, who swore an oath to Kolomoisky, Poroshenko’s appointee, Eduard Gurvits, failed miserably;
4. The territorial defense battalions, financed by Kolomoisky, operate in isolation from parts of Kiev and do not obey them, making raids (the Azov battalion of A. Biletsky under the O. Lyashko brand and the Aydar battalion defeated by the militias);
5. Poroshenko is forced to fight in Kiev with the people of Tymoshenko, squeezing them out of power and pushing the idea of early parliamentary elections.
Europe is thinking
The four-time postponement of the transfer of Kiev to prepaid gas led to a fundamental change in the EU policy towards Russia and energy supplies:
1. Europe, in fact, recognized the gas price offered by Moscow as fair for Kiev;
2. The initiator of the transfer of prepayment and the continuation of the negotiations was European Commissioner Oettinger, which demonstrates the awareness of the EU elites of the depth of the energy problem;
3. Gazprom refused to use Ukrainian underground gas storage facilities, preferring to pump gas directly into the UGS facilities of the European Union;
4. Nord Stream is temporarily stopped for routine maintenance for the period from 24 to 28 in June, and from 28 in June to 4 in July, only one branch of the pipeline will function;
5. The EU will ripen to the required condition for a month or two, after which it will agree to almost any demands of Gazprom regarding South Stream and gas supplies;
6. The EU elites do not believe in the realistic supply of shale gas from the United States (and rightly so);
Thus, the thinking of European politicians is restructured, and its carriers are forced to look at Ukrainian events not from the standpoint of ideology, but from the standpoint of economics and healthy pragmatism, which brings the positions of the EU and the Russian Federation closer. The United States in such conditions appear in the role of the "third superfluous".
Development Trends of the Ukrainian Civil War
Based on the above, you can point to a number of trends and predict the further development of events in Ukraine, provided that the troops of the Russian Federation will not be further introduced to the Donbass and Ukraine. The introduction of troops will bring down this scheme and thwart all the progress in the EU turn towards Russia, pushing the Europeans to sanctions and concluding an agreement on a transatlantic free trade zone with the United States, which will lead to a sharp strengthening of the US geopolitical positions and a rapid weakening of Russia's positions.
1. Further aggravation of the conflict and the increase in the number of provocations (disruption of the truce), the purpose of which is to get Russia to send troops into the New Russia;
2. The default in Ukraine, the sharp impoverishment of the population, the reduction of GDP by 40-50% from the level of 2013 of the year, the sharp increase in social discontent and riots, the disruption of the holiday season in the Black Sea cities of Ukraine;
3. Quantitative and qualitative strengthening of the resistance forces of Novorossia and their transition from sabotage tactics to the expansion of the region of presence;
4. Thaw in relations between the EU and the Russian Federation, reducing the factor of US influence on the EU foreign policy;
5. The actual fragmentation of the remnants of Ukraine into several quasi-state formations and increased hostility between their elites. The United States is likely to bet on Kolomensky’s Kaganat in the confrontation with Novorossia.
- Ivan Lizan
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