Ankara vs Damascus: what will the creation of a buffer "security zone" lead to?
Already been news that Ankara is unhappy with the internal politics of Damascus. The Turkish government is unhappy with the flow of refugees and the intensification of the "Kurdish issue" in Syria. Therefore, the plan to create a buffer "security zone" of the Turkish army in the border areas of Syria was announced. But this almost with 90% will likely lead to a clash between the Syrian and Turkish armies, which are among the strongest armies in this region. What will lead to such a conflict?
From a diplomatic point of view, Syria is already a “rogue” country in the eyes of most of the so-called. "World community". Assad's Western media, and not only the media, have been put on the level of Gaddafi, Hussein, as the head of the state that is carrying out genocide against the citizens of his country. Although it is well known that Washington, the European capitals can also "close their eyes" to cases of genocide of the population, if the country is ruled by its "son of a bitch." Or change his point of view, so Saddam Hussein was a friend of the West, then he became an enemy when he decided to seize Kuwait.
The ground for a strike on Syria has been prepared for more than a year - statements about the “atomic program” of Damascus, the active cooperation of the Syrians with the DPRK, Iran, which are also considered in the group of countries of the “axis of evil”.
That is, Ankara, which is a member of NATO, will be supported at least diplomatically, and weapons, ammunition will be thrown in case of need. Perhaps support and with the help of the Air Force. For NATO, Jerusalem is very profitable if Turkey fights against Syria. This solves several important tasks at once: 1) Syria is militarily not Libya, much more serious forces will have to be mobilized to crush it, and the NATO countries even against Libya demonstrate amazing helplessness, which was recently confirmed by US Defense Secretary R.Gates. And then Turkey will be the main striking force; 2) The West will continue the policy of splitting the Islamic world, pitting the Turks and part of the Arab world; 3) will be dealt a heavy blow to the strategic interests of Russia, Iran; 4) crushed the most potentially dangerous enemy of Israel, among its immediate neighbors.
Ankara herself, apparently, will not mind participating in such an operation, she is in line with her project of the Ottoman Empire 2.
Armed Forces of Turkey and Syria
Ankara and Damascus have one of the most powerful armed forces in the world, and the “army against the army” oriented to the classical war. Moreover, their arsenals are mostly outdated, especially in Syria, it was focused on the supply of weapons from the USSR, and the collapse of the Syrian army caused a lot of damage.
Syria has 320 thousands of people in the sun (16 is the world's largest), of which ground forces are about 200 thousand, they include: 3 army corps, 12 divisions (3 mechanized, 7 armored, one special forces, one Republican Guard), 13 separate brigades (4 infantry, one border guard, 2 missile brigades with tactical missiles "Tochka" and "Luna", one missile brigade with ballistic missiles P-11 "Scud", one coastal missile brigade defense, 2 artillery brigades and 2 anti-tank bri hells), 10 regiment of special purpose, 1 separate tank regiment. In reserve: headquarters of the tank division, two tank, 31 infantry, 3 artillery regiments. Tanks around 4,8 thousand units (T-55, T-62М, T-72, T-72М), armored vehicles - approximately 4,5 thousand units. Approximately 450 ACS, more than 2 thousand guns, up to 500 MLRS (of which up to 300 "Grad" and up to 200 more primitive Chinese Tour 63) and, roughly, several thousand mortars.
To fight the enemy’s tanks, the Syrians have up to 2600 ATGM, including the Kornet; plus attack helicopters - French 55 (according to other 35 data) SA.342K / L Gazel, 36 Mi-25. Syrian army troop defense: up to 100, Strela-1, Strela-10 and Osa air defense missile systems, approximately 4 thousand Strela-2 and Igla anti-aircraft defense missile systems, more than 1200 ZSU and anti-aircraft guns.
Syrian Air Force: 500-800 units (it is not known that in combat-capable state), but only 4-20 MiG-48 belong to the 29 generation, with the first modifications. For strikes against enemy troops, they can use: 20 Su-24MK, 30 — 60 MiG-23BN, 40-80 Su-22. MiGi-29 can support fighters: approximately 30 units MiG-25П, 60-100 MiG-23МФ / МС / МЛ / МЛД, around 200 MiG-21. Syria ground defense: approximately 40 PU-ZRS C-200, more than 300 С-75, 150 С-125, 160 "Cube".
The Syrian Navy is the weakest part of the country's armed forces, the Turks have the complete superiority, the Syrians along the coast can only oppose the 10 missile boats of the 205М project.
Turkish aircraft: total number about 600 thousand people. Ground forces comprise about 390 thousand people - 4 field armies: 10 corps, 2 separate divisions, 51 brigade. In service: up to 4,5 thousand tanks, but only about modern 340 - “Leopard-2А4”, the rest “Leopards” of early modifications, M60 of various modifications, M48. More 4200 units of armored vehicles - BTR, BMP. Approximately 1,1 thousands of ACS, more than 500 MLRS and about 5 thousand guns and mortars.
To fight the enemy’s tanks there are: self-propelled and portable anti-tank systems for the Turkish military near 2400, including “Competitions” and “Cornets”. Plus, the Turkish army has over 5000 RPG-7 and more than 40000 US disposable anti-tank grenade launchers M72A2. Tanks can also destroy XHUMX AH-44 Cobra helicopters.
Military air defense: more than 2800 anti-aircraft small-caliber guns and ZSU, the army has more than 1900 man-portable air defense systems (Red-A, Stinger, Igla), there are also 105 self-propelled systems (Atilgan and Zipkin) with Sting SUR.
The Turkish Air Force is about 400 combat aircraft, of which more than 200 are the X-NUMX-generation F-4, there is also the X-NUMX F-16 “Phantom” (162-scouts) and around 4 F-38 (41 training). The air defense system includes up to 5 medium-range air defense systems (US MIM-15 Nike-Hercules and British Rapier).
In the field of the Navy, full superiority: 14 NNS, more 20 frigates and corvettes, more than 2-x dozen missile boats.
Who will win?
Turkey has complete superiority at sea, but there is no superiority in the field of land forces, except for numerical. The Air Force is also not much stronger. The main advantage of the Turkish Armed Forces is in communications, reconnaissance (including airborne - with the help of UAVs), control systems. It is also necessary to take into account the rather high motivation of Turkish soldiers, their good preparation - the Turkish army, among the NATO countries, shares with the Bundeswehr second place, after the US Army, in preparation. The Turkish army has combat experience - operations against Kurdish troops. Plus, powerful information support from NATO countries, they can support and ammunition equipment. Many NATO countries are currently writing off a lot of weapons (tanks, aircraft, artillery), all this can be transferred to the Turkish Armed Forces if it suffers serious losses, but the Arsenals do not have to replenish the Syrian armed forces. Turkey also compensates for the damage in people - the population is growing rapidly, there are many young people.
The internal situation in Syria itself will be of great importance. If there is already a civil war going on there, as in Libya, and the situation is approaching this, then it is doubtful that the Syrian armed forces will be able to withstand the impact of the Turkish army. It is necessary to take into account the fact that modern Arabs have a small military stability. And the reaction of the Syrian population to the invasion of the Turkish army is of great importance: it will rally people around Assad or contribute to the fall of its power.
As a result, the Turkish armed forces in any scenario can break the Syrian troops: Syria has nowhere to get new equipment to replace the retired, there will be problems with ammunition. And the United States can provide Ankara and direct assistance - to strike with the help of the navy and air force on the air defense system and the airfields of the Syrian air force. Possible and the Israeli Air Force strike. And then help in the destruction of the heavy weapons of the Syrian armed forces.
Latest news from Syria
21 June Syrian President Bashar al-Assad announced a general amnesty. And 20 June, he proposed a plan to bring the country out of crisis. Assad promised to convene a special council, which will be busy revising the legislation of Syria, including the constitution. Also, the Syrian president promised to reform the electoral system of the state, to weaken censorship and eradicate corruption. He called the main condition for the start of reforms - the cessation of unrest.
According to him, there is a conspiracy against Syria: “I know that due to the fact that Syria occupies an important geopolitical place in the world and is located in a strategic region for the entire West, its история has experienced several conspiracies and plans to inflict us significant damage. However, I can say that we will make every effort to make our country prosperous and stable. We will not allow our enemies to destroy Syria. ”
There are big doubts that the next portion of concessions will “calm” the country; the situation has already been “swung up” to such an extent that you cannot help the cause with reforms. Reforms should be done before the revolution, in the course of it they only aggravate the situation even more - they destroy the old management mechanisms, and the new ones are not yet entrenched, as a result, the chaos is growing.
Assad’s response to the unrest in the country is contradictory: when they first started, he promised reforms — the Syrian authorities lifted the state of emergency, gave passports to the Kurds without rights before, and canceled the political crimes court. But this was not enough for the demonstrators - they demanded further concessions, to abolish censorship in the country and hold fair elections. Then Assad tried to suppress unrest by force, the good and the reasons were, there were attacks on the "security forces", their killing. But the force method did not justify itself either - the Western media intensified the intensity of criticism, putting pressure on the West and Turkey. Unrest began to take place in new cities, relations with Turkey and Israel worsened. Yes, and expensive army units to throw from the city to the city. And Assad promises reform again ...
- Alexander Samsonov
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