Today they talk a lot about the inexpediency of open military intervention by Russia in the east of Ukraine. I will allow myself a few thoughts on this. First I will give the main arguments in favor of non-interference of Russia, below - my comments.
1. The United States is eager for a new global war (to “reset” its debts, to prevent the collapse of the dollar system, etc.), for this Washington and Kiev specifically provoke Moscow to enter the Russian troops. In addition, NATO will have a reason to deploy military bases on the territory of Ukraine.
2. The current Ukrainian government is also waiting for the intervention of Russia. This will prolong its existence and give motivation for waging war in the east.
3. The West will impose extremely painful sanctions against Russia.
4. Russia needs not only a friendly Donbass, but the whole of New Russia, and in the future, all of Ukraine. Therefore, one should not give a reason to make Russia the image of an aggressor.
5. Ukraine and without the intervention of Russia will be forced to soon cease hostilities, since run out of money and human resources.
1. First, if someone has not yet noticed, America has long been leading a global cold war against Russia. Ukraine is just one of the staging grounds for American aggression. According to the Department of State, about 5 billions of dollars have already been invested in the creation of this bridgehead. The fact that now this war has moved from the informational to the hot phase, that is, the military one itself, does not change the essence of the matter.
At the same time, it is obvious that today, the West (led by the United States), after the failure in Iraq and Afghanistan, is forced to refuse - at least in the foreseeable future - from direct military intervention and will “export democracy” using puppet governments, i.e. others hands.
I don’t argue: in order to "reset" its debts, to prevent the collapse of the dollar system, America may be interested in starting a new world war. But note: she is interested in a victorious war. But only a madman can seriously hope to win in an open confrontation with such a nuclear power as Russia. So far, America is more like a lazy lazy consumer than a suicide. Therefore, the maximum that the Americans are capable of today is the incitement of their satellites against Russia in the hope that we will not withstand the pressure, we will flinch and back away.
The main task of the United States is the final separation of Ukraine from Russia, or, as a minimum plan, the destruction of the military-industrial potential of the south-east of Ukraine. The main goal is to prevent further strengthening of the military-economic power of our country. Therefore, is it any wonder that, under the pretext of fighting “separatists and terrorists,” the Kiev regime first of all began to systematically and systematically destroy the cities of Donbass. After all, this destruction America purposefully went on for many years. It is impossible not to appreciate the sophisticated cynicism of the Americans, who have achieved that the Ukrainian cities are destroying the Ukrainian cities.
Secondly, the current policy of the United States in Ukraine is a frank gamble and bluff. Actually, it is precisely these words that determine the entire foreign policy of the past decades. In the success of the American adventure in Ukraine can only believe the faint-hearted or the one who is its direct performer. What seems to be some kind of provocation is caused by the feeling of impunity of Kiev leaders, who blindly believe in the omnipotence of their overseas employer.
Russia, which triumphed over the most warlike nations of the West (to which America never belonged), has nothing to fear. Rather, we should be afraid of self-doubt. As events show, the level of training of the Ukrainian Armed Forces was even lower than the level of training of the Georgian army in 2008. It seems that the American instructors did not bother to develop a scenario of military actions, apparently believing that this would not happen.
Nevertheless, the junta’s available armed forces would be enough to level the Donbass and even the whole of New Russia. Only a decisive military operation to force Ukraine to peace can save the situation and cool down the ardor of punishers. Alas, the example of Georgia in August 2008 of the year, probably, the USA did not teach anything. We'll have to repeat.
Russia should not hide its assistance to the Russian people, who by the will of fate ended up in the Russophobic state. We have nothing to be ashamed of and nothing to justify. America and the current Ukrainian government should be ashamed and justified. Operational intervention of Russia is the only way to stop the bombing of peaceful cities and to avoid large losses from both the militia and the Ukrainian military, who have become hostages of the criminal Kiev regime.
Otherwise, the inaction and indecision of Russia in this matter will be regarded by our enemies as a weakness, which, as we know, is not forgiven in politics. So, there will be even more pressure on Russia, there will be military bases in Ukraine, as before they appeared in Eastern Europe and the Baltic States. That is, we will receive both shame and war. I don’t say that Moscow’s indecision acts in a demoralizing way on our partners in the Customs Union (it’s enough to cite the ambiguous behavior of the Belarusian president at the inauguration of Poroshenko as an example), and also gives reason to say that Novorossia is a bargaining chip, a bargain in the geopolitical "game" of the West and Russia.
2. The current Ukrainian government is not waiting for anything and is not deciding anything on its own, as it is a puppet, strictly following the instructions of the United States. For America’s plans, see 1. There is no doubt that in case of failure, the Kiev junta received security guarantees from its owner, which, however, are not always enforced. But this is not our sorrow.
Only the defeat of a military group can dramatically accelerate the fall of the Kiev regime. In this case, even supporters of the junta are finally aware of its sheer adventurism and irresponsibility. On the contrary, with the protracted nature of hostilities, puppet power has every chance of firmly gaining a foothold and gaining great influence (if only: after all, it manages to confront Russia itself!). As for motivation, it should be said that it will disappear immediately after exponential destruction aviation and heavy military equipment of the junta.
3. This seems to be the main thing that a certain part of our political elite, associated with large private capital, is afraid of. It is these individuals who do not allow us to conduct a military operation to force Ukraine to peace, it is they who frighten us with horror stories about the Third World War using atomic energy. weapons, on which some of our innocent and trusting patriots pecked. Fear of losing your transnational business is the main cause of indecision and uncertainty in the actions of our leadership in April-June. Of course, it is foolish and naive to remind individual representatives of the national oligarchy of their love of the Motherland, of the priority of state and public interests over personal ones. But it is worth warning them that when the people draw the power to the answer (in case of its inaction), they can become scapegoats (however, deservedly), and then the fate of Khodorkovsky may not seem to be the worst option. Let us hope that gentlemen-compradors will listen at least to the voice of their own instinct of self-preservation. And in general, it is time for them to understand that the time of the former “new Russians” is over, the time has begun for people from Novorossia.
It can be said that the sanctions will affect not only the interests of the oligarchs, but also Russia. Yes it is. However, one should think about how much it will cost our country, for example, a complete break of economic ties with hostile Ukraine, or how much it will cost to restore the destroyed cities and industry of Donbass (it’s clear that neither the United States nor Ukraine will restore anything) thousands of unemployed refugees.
But the most important thing is still not this. The worst of all the worst sanctions is the loss of public confidence in the government. For the absence of decisive measures by the authorities will be perceived by the majority of the people of Russia and Novorossia as a direct betrayal.
4. The image of Russia as an aggressor and enemy has been created over the past 23 years, which naturally led to the transformation of Ukraine into a Russophobic Nazi state and the genocide of the Russian population in the Donbass. Therefore, whatever Russia does today, only she will be to blame for everything. The only way out is to resolve the issue as quickly as possible with the change of the criminal power in Ukraine. It is clear that this cannot be done without decisive actions against the military machine of the junta.
And then, how are we going to inspire the rest of the New Russia regions to fight the Kiev regime, if they see how the civilian population is being destroyed with impunity? Who wants to be cannon fodder?
As for “the whole of Ukraine,” which supposedly finally hates Russia for “aggression,” we have nothing to fear here: thanks to many years of continuous brainwashing of the brain, Russia is a priori “aggressor” in the eyes of many Ukrainians. For a fundamental change in the situation, at least, powerful information counter-propaganda is needed. And in order to conduct it in Ukraine, again, it is necessary to resolve the issue of changing the existing Kiev authorities.
5. Ukraine will be able to wage a protracted war with the Donbass militia for a long time, since the United States is extremely interested in this. I repeat: for America, the elimination of industry and infrastructure in the south-east of Ukraine is an ideal option. For this, Washington is ready to provide free financial and military assistance. There will be someone to fight. Enough to create a situation where the only job for young men, bringing a stable income, will be serving in the army.
The overall result. It is obvious that the people's militia, even receiving assistance from Russia, will not be able to cope independently with the superior forces of the enemy. To create private military companies (PMCs) on the territory of Donbass, about which they talk a lot there, no longer makes sense. Not only punitive special forces are fighting against the Donbass, but also the regular army using aviation and heavy artillery. While PMCs will fight with the army, the peaceful cities of Donbass will turn into ruins.
Therefore, Russia needs to recognize the DPR and LPR and, at the request of these republics, conduct a military operation to force Ukraine to peace. For this, it is likely that you do not even need to enter ground troops, it is enough to use a massive air strikes on the enemy’s military equipment, which undoubtedly “brings back to life” the Kiev authorities (as was the case in Georgia) and will allow to avoid further casualties on both sides. The rest (repression or destruction of individual punitive detachments not subordinate to the Kiev authorities) will finish the people's militia.
It is possible that yesterday the peace enforcement operation would be untimely, as indisputable evidence (indisputable even for the West) of the criminal activity of the Kiev authorities was required. Today, such evidence is more than enough for several Nuremberg trials. The time has come for decisive actions, because tomorrow these actions may turn out to be unnecessary, as there will be nobody and nothing to save ...
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