Iraqi front: jihadists are attacking Baghdad, the US is not going to send troops, Iran enters the battle
The war in Iraq continues to expand. The grouping "The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant" (ISIS), after capturing Mosul and Tikrit, promised to take Baghdad and regroup its forces to attack the Iraqi capital. Not only hundreds of millions of dollars in cash, gold, and jewels fell into her hands, but weapons billions of dollars, which threw fighters of several Iraqi divisions and police formations. The situation is so complicated that the United States promised military assistance to Iraq in the war against the Islamists, and Iran, according to media reports, has already sent troops to the elite Al-Quds special forces, which is part of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Events develop very quickly. Within days, the Islamists seized two Iraqi cities, Tikrit and Mosul (Black flags over Mosul and Tikrit). Tikrit is a small city, but it is of great symbolic importance; it is the birthplace of the commander and great statesman who united the territories of modern Egypt, Syria, Iraq and parts of Saudi Arabia Salah ad-Din (Saladin), as well as Saddam Hussein. The capture of Mosul in general is a grand event. Apparently, there was a betrayal of the part of the Sunni military and backstage games with the participation of Saudi and possibly American intelligence agencies, which continue to patronize the jihadists.
The project of “caliphate” and “war against the infidels” is generally the brainchild of the Anglo-Saxons, Saudi and Pakistani special services, who created it to fight the USSR in Afghanistan and in general against Russian civilization. At the same time, the task of “lowering” Europe is being solved, which in the long term is doomed to slaughter, assimilation and Islamization. As well as attacks on Chinese and Indian civilization states.
Capturing Mosul is a brilliant operation (obviously, it’s not without the operational assistance of certain forces) that decided several important tasks at once:
- The Iraqi army received a powerful blow, its morale, which is already extremely low, fell even lower. The defeat of the Iraqi forces showed the whole world the rottenness and instability of the semi-colonial regime, which was no longer concerned with the unity of the state and the elaboration of a line for the harmonious development of the Shiite, Sunni and Kurdish communities, but theft and power struggle. Personal and narrow group interests of the Iraqi "elite" led to the final collapse of Iraqi statehood.
- Plans to divide Iraq into several states are taking shape - Iraqi Kurdistan is already de facto independent. In recent events, the Kurds occupied Kirkuk, which they had wanted to occupy for a long time. The Kirkuk area is rich in hydrocarbons. The city of Kirkuk is located outside the Kurdish Autonomous Region, but the Kurds consider it their historical the capital. Now the territory of the "Sunni Caliphate" is being formed. Shiites also have to separate. Put the entire territory of Iraq under their control they will not work.
- Jihadists got a powerful fortress. A city like Mosul will be extremely difficult to take, given the low combat capability of the Iraqi forces. So, Iraqi troops stormed Fallujah for several months, which the Islamists took at the beginning of 2014, but without success. Mosul has already become a powerful springboard for the further advance of the jihadists. In addition, the city is on important communications. Now Islamists have complete freedom of movement from Iraq to Syria.
- Capture of Mosul solved the problem of financing. Huge sums have been captured (hundreds of millions of dollars), which will make it possible in a short time to produce a new mobilization set into their ranks and continue the offensive. There are a lot of disadvantaged people in the region, where wars and revolutions replace one after another. Therefore, volunteers are more than enough.
- Jihadists have seized a huge amount of weapons worth billions of dollars. In fact, what the Americans supplied for years, the militants seized in a few days. Whole divisions collapsed and fled, captured equipment, warehouses with weapons, ammunition, equipment and fuel. Thus, the operational command of Nineveh disappeared with the fall of Mosul, from which soldiers of the infantry division and the division of the federal police fled. One Iraqi division fled from Tikrit. Another division collapsed in the Kirkuk region (its positions were taken by the Kurds). There are so many weapons that Islamists simply do not have enough drivers and specialists to use all the equipment. Much of it is simply burned and destroyed, so as not to get the military. The part quickly transferred to Syria.
- Saudi Arabia delivered a strong blow to Iran and Syria. And also justified their investments in terrorist organizations. Iraq’s development plans for the oil industry, according to which Baghdad planned to produce 6-8 million barrels per day, can put an end, at least for a considerable time. The plans of Iraq and Iran by the 2020 year to reach the total production in 20 million barrels per day and become the largest producers of “black gold” were greatly disturbed by the Saudis. Therefore, chaos in the territory of Iraq is in the interests of the Kingdom.
- Poured gasoline into the fire of the Syrian war. Part of the weapons abandoned by the Iraqi police and army were immediately transferred to Syria, reinforcing the power of the Islamists on this front. The problem of supplying weapons, ammunition and financing the war in Syria has been resolved. It is possible that the war in Syria will reach a new level.
- Iran is forced to respond to a major defeat and the possibility of defeating an Iraqi ally. In fact, Tehran is in the position of Moscow, which wants or does not want, but will be forced to intervene in the Ukrainian war or get a war on its territory. For Tehran, the situation in Iraq is a matter of strategy, history, religion (sacred places for Shiites) and economics. Moreover, Iran, like Russia in a “fork” situation, is dangerous to intervene, this is an escalation of the conflict, the spread of chaos in the region, but it is impossible not to get into it. The fall of the Shiite regime threatens the emergence of a "Sunni caliphate" aggressive towards Iraqi Shiites and Iran. As Russia, without interfering in the Ukrainian war, it receives the “Ukrainian Reich”, which is extremely aggressive towards the Russian world, the genocide of Russians in New Russia and the discontent of Russian patriots. Whose energy received from the victory in the Crimea is gradually channeled into hatred of power (moods quickly change from enthusiasm to bewilderment and misunderstanding, and then hatred) and dramatically increase the potential of the Russian revolution.
But the open intervention of Iran in the Iraq war is a withdrawal of the situation to a new level. His opponents in the region and the world will respond and Iran will have to face new and unforeseen challenges. However, the passive strategy is even more flawed. Therefore, Iran, according to media reports, still decided to intervene. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister for Arab and African countries Hossein Amir-Abdollahiyan said that Iran is ready to help Iraq in the fight against terrorists. According to The Wall Street Journal Europe, which refers to sources in Iraqi security forces, Tehran decided to act on the Syrian scenario and sent several battalions of the elite special forces unit to fight the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant group. Corps of the Guardians of the Islamic Revolution. Part of the forces was sent to protect Baghdad and the Shiite holy cities of Karbala and Najaf, one battalion is already fighting in the Tikrit area. The command of the Iranian forces is exercised by Brigadier General Kasem Suleymani.
In addition, Iran began to strengthen its borders with Iraq. This was announced by the Deputy Minister of the Interior of the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI), Ali Abdollah. “We cannot wait until we have incidents on the borders or terrorist attacks are recorded. We have always been supporters of taking proactive measures, ”the deputy minister said. Iran led troops on the border with Iraq, and filed by the media, gave permission to the Air Force to bomb the positions of ISIS militants if they come closer than 100 kilometers to the Iranian border
The situation continues to deteriorate. On Thursday evening, the jihadists captured two more cities in the province of Diyala in the north-east of the country - Jaloul and Saudiya. The units of the security forces who defended populated areas simply fled when the enemy mobile groups approached. True, the Iraqi military refuted this message. In the situation there is no clarity. The militants have already threatened to seize Baghdad. A member of the ISIL group, Mohammed al-Adnani, announced in his audio message: "The battle has not yet begun, but it will begin in Baghdad and Karbala."
From Iraq began the flight of the bourgeoisie. The United States began the evacuation of its personnel from a large airbase near the city of Balad, where the Americans were training Iraqis. In particular, UAV operators were trained there. This information was confirmed by the US State Department. In a statement, State Department spokesman Jen Psaki said that the evacuation of Americans working in Iraq as part of the program for the supply of military weapons and equipment began.
US President Barack Obama said on Thursday that Washington is considering any options for military assistance to Iraq in the fight against radical Islamists. “I do not exclude anything,” Obama answered the journalist’s question about whether BLAH strikes are possible by the militants. White House spokesman Jay Carney explained that by military assistance, the American president meant only air strikes. Apparently, it is not worth waiting for a serious reaction from the United States. Everything happens as part of a global plan to incite "controlled chaos" in Eurasia (The goal of the owners of the West - chaos in Eurasia). Earlier, before the seizure of Mosul, Baghdad had already asked Washington to launch air strikes against ISIL and other Islamist groups, but the Americans refused. Washington does not like the fact that al-Maliki’s regime helps Assad. It is possible that Washington will easily throw al-Maliki’s regime back to its plans to dismember Iraq into three parts (Kurdish, Sunni and Shiite), with further escalating the conflict in Syria and worsening the situation of Iran.
NATO also denies interference. The Secretary General of the North Atlantic Alliance, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, stated that he does not see the role of NATO in Iraq, the bloc does not have a mandate to resolve the situation in Iraq, they only track it. The Secretary General called only on all parties involved to stop the violence and immediately release the hostages.
Meanwhile, the army of Islamists seriously strengthened its power. July 12 ISIS controlled about 15% of Iraqi territory, with several million inhabitants. In their offensive, the Islamists are already using dozens of new trophy armored vehicles of various types. It is possible that the Islamists will soon have their own air force - several combat aircraft and helicopters have been captured in Mosul, some pilots have taken the side of ISIS. Hundreds of officers and soldiers went over to the Islamists. The ranks of the group have also strengthened the hundreds of freed prisoners, many of whom hold radical views. Another ISIS personnel reserve - the fighters of other Islamist movements and groups, who, against the background of such victories and a dramatically increased financial resource, are moving to the side of the "Islamic state".
The Kurds are strengthening their positions and are in no hurry to attack the Islamists. The president of the Kurdish autonomy, Masud Barzani, ordered the militia to strengthen the protection of the borders of the disputed territories in order not to allow the Islamists to infiltrate them, and then to Kurdistan. The movements of Kurdish forces are designed to defend their territories, including the disputed ones that are disputed between Baghdad and Erbil (the city of Kirkuk and the Kirkuk oil field). In general, Kurdistan expressed its readiness to help Baghdad, but only after it had been agreed with the central authorities. However, Baghdad declared that he himself was “ready to cope on his own,” despite the general flight of army and police forces. In Baghdad, they are clearly afraid that they will have to give Kirkuk for Kurdish aid.
Nuri al-Maliki is still trying to rectify the situation by moving troops from the western province of Anbar, where tank and mechanized units for several months unsuccessfully tried to regain control of Fallujah. However, transferring troops from this direction, Baghdad weakens it. And this threatens a crisis in another direction. Then the Islamists will be able to strike Baghdad from the western direction - from the cities of Ramadi (110 km from the capital) and Fallujah (60 km from the capital). The central authorities obviously do not have enough troops to control all directions. In addition, unlike the Syrian army, the Iraqi army demonstrates low combat efficiency.
Whatever the current armed conflict in Iraq ends, one thing is clear - the Middle East is still slipping into chaos and becoming the front of a world conflict.
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