Model of neutral Ukraine?
Historical The comparison between Ukraine and Finland began, perhaps, with the words of the Russian Foreign Minister, Comrade Lavrov, who said on June 9 in Turku that Russia and Finland have a common position on the settlement of the Ukrainian crisis. According to the minister, Ukraine could become not a factor separating Europe and Russia, but, on the contrary, a bridge - like Finland during the Cold War.The words of Comrade Lavrov, said at a press conference following negotiations with his Finnish counterpart Erkki Tuomioja, RIA News": “We share the same position that the Geneva statement of April 17, based on its roadmap of the Swiss OSCE chairmanship, is a common denominator, and these documents open the way to a settlement, starting with priority steps to end violence and organization like they say, inclusive Ukrainian dialogue, deep constitutional reform, taking into account the interests of all political forces and all regions of Ukraine. ”
As Timur Khursandov writes (RIA News"), perhaps, the Finnish model could really come up.
By “Finlandization,” reminds the journalist, during the Cold War, the United States and its allies understood the policy of neutrality, refusal to join NATO, and attempts to become a “bridge” between East and West. Two complex, one might say, mutually exclusive factors were taken into account: the full support of Western values while respecting the interests of the socialist neighbor.
Timur Hursandov made a series of parallels. Both Finland and Ukraine are fragments of former empires. In both countries there is a question of bilingualism (although the Finns have decided it long ago - the state has Finnish and Swedish).
And now here is the statement of Lavrov. Ukraine could become, like Finland during the Cold War, a kind of “bridge”. According to him, Moscow, Kiev and Brussels could agree on the harmonization of Ukraine’s participation in the CIS free trade zone, given its European integration plans.
“We, the Russian Federation, have repeatedly suggested to our European colleagues, Ukrainian colleagues to come together and see how to do so so as not to force Ukraine to tear left and right,” said Lavrov. The Minister considers such a way “optimal”.
However, the matter is hampered by the so-called security issue. After all, the Ukrainian crisis has affected the possibility of NATO expansion under the pretext of the threat of Russian aggression.
Finland is also not silent here. President Sauli Niinistö promised that Helsinki would consider joining NATO and didn’t even rule out a referendum. On the day of Lavrov’s arrival in Turku, the North Atlantic Alliance exercises with the participation of Sweden and Finland began in the Baltic Sea.
Lavrov spoke on this difficult topic. "An artificial attempt to continue NATO expansion eastward, in any other direction, to continue advancing NATO’s military infrastructure closer to borders, including the Russian Federation, is certainly counterproductive, is a contradiction compared to the commitments that NATO members made within the framework of the OSCE and as part of the founding act between the Russian Federation and the North Atlantic Alliance, ”said the Minister.
So, can modern Ukraine repeat the path of Finland?
“If we talk about the“ Finlandization ”of Ukraine, it is necessary to understand: Finland could exist as a bridge between the West and the East only in a world where two major geopolitical systems, Soviet and western, confronted, said "Free Press" Bogdan Bezpalko, Deputy Director of the Center for Ukrainian Studies and Belarussian Studies at Moscow State University. - Now there is no such confrontation, and it is much more difficult for Ukraine to balance between the West and the East. In addition, - he said, - the USSR during the Cold War gave Finland a very definite role - the trade gates to the West. Ukraine, on the other hand, rather acts today as a tool for blocking Russia. ”
The expert also noted that Ukraine is becoming a breeding ground for “ideological contagion,” that is, nationalism, and this is dangerous for the Russian Federation. If Russia stops supporting the Southeast, the analyst says, the Left Bank will be infected with the “virus of Ukrainian nationalism”. As a result, the Russian border will not have a new Finland, but a “variant of the Fourth Reich”. Bezpalko reminded that the ideologists of Ukrainian nationalism have long dreamed of dividing Russia. And it is impossible to imagine that such people would act as a partner of the Russian Federation in the framework of "Finlandized" Ukraine.
Instead of the similarity between Ukraine and Finland, the expert suggests paying attention to the differences. According to him, they are "principled." And the first difference is that Ukraine is a multi-state state.
“The whole Novorossiysk belt and the Crimea are territories that were conquered and equipped by the Russian Empire. Western Ukraine was once part of the Austro-Hungarian Empire, and in part - the Romanian (Chernivtsi region of Ukraine). By and large, Ukrainian literary language was created on the basis of the Poltava dialect artificially - with the same success it could be created on the basis of the dialects of any other region of Ukraine.
In other words, Ukraine is a complex, ideologically, mentally and civilizationally diverse space. That is what her problems are, which is why Ukraine is now splitting. This space could be united only as part of some large political entity - like the Russian Empire or the Soviet Union. But now, when this space was left alone with itself and tried to unite on the platform of the ideology of nationalism, it cracked at the seams.
With that said, the analogy with Finland, an ethnically homogeneous country in which there are no ideological contradictions between citizens, does not seem convincing. ”
In other words, Ukraine is a complex, ideologically, mentally and civilizationally diverse space. That is what her problems are, which is why Ukraine is now splitting. This space could be united only as part of some large political entity - like the Russian Empire or the Soviet Union. But now, when this space was left alone with itself and tried to unite on the platform of the ideology of nationalism, it cracked at the seams.
With that said, the analogy with Finland, an ethnically homogeneous country in which there are no ideological contradictions between citizens, does not seem convincing. ”
As to the mentioned “Finlandization” of Ukraine, such is possible only in one case: the collapse of Greater Ukraine, created by the Bolsheviks within the borders of the Ukrainian SSR. Her debris and can go the way of Finland, the expert said. A military defeat, economic hardships can force these parts of the former Ukraine to make concessions and play the role of “trade gateways” between the EU and the Russian Federation.
“Let me remind you: when they talk about Finland as a bridge between the West and the East, they usually forget that Finland experienced two powerful military defeats from the USSR. I think that when Ukraine will experience several defeats, when several western regions will remain from it, this little “bandershtat” can probably become an analogue of Finland in the Soviet postwar period. ”
It should be recalled that the new president of Ukraine and his government, consisting mainly of maydanschikov, will strive to the West with all its might. Immediately after the inauguration Poroshenko prepared a pen, which will sign an association agreement with the EU. Moreover, the variant of Finlandization looks strange where there is no socialist state and no ideological confrontation between the two systems that would be connected by a “neutral” bridge. In Russia, capitalism, and Putin and Medvedev always call the countries of the West "partners." What kind of bridge is it?
The “bridge”, I suppose, is Comrade Lavrov’s hopes that there will not be a “military defeat” and “debris” and that life in Ukraine will get better. Russia does not need war, and Russia does not intend to include Russia in its territory. About this same Lavrov said on TV two months ago.
Observed and commented on Oleg Chuvakin
- especially for topwar.ru
- especially for topwar.ru
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