The new face of the Kiev junta - Chocolate King Poroshenko - found himself in a difficult situation. Russia managed to achieve almost official recognition of Novorossia by European politicians. And Poroshenko returned to his inauguration from France, having experienced almost ultimatum pressure from European leaders.
So, having withstood the first battles of the civil war without Russian assistance, Novorossia secured for itself the status of an indispensable party to any negotiation process to resolve the conflict. This status is not yet international recognition (for the time being, full recognition is difficult to count on). But this is almost a recognition of the actual state of affairs. From now on, the punitive operation of the Kiev junta is not an internal affair of the once-existing state of Ukraine, but a conflict that has two sides.
The coup d'état in Ukraine was organized by the United States in their own geopolitical interests. The European Union, with its hasty attempt to sign an association agreement with the pre-bankrupt state, acted as only a tool of American politics. But any master does the work in their own interests, and not in the interests of the tools used. And it is not surprising that the politicians of the least dependent European countries are not always ready for nailing them into a box, into which, perhaps, they will put them all later.
The USA would arrange Ukraine’s entry into NATO, paid for by Europe. In case of failure of this plan, it also arranges bloody chaos, which Russia must inevitably be drawn into. However, it cannot be said that these scenarios will suit all European “partners” of the USA. Therefore, it should not be surprising that at the celebration of the opening of the second front, all American initiatives to isolate Russia were so pointedly and frankly torpedoed by European politicians. And the president of the United States, representing the state that played the main role in the event being celebrated, turned out to be in the role of a spectator, chewing away his chewing gum. Obama's opinion and the opinion of his country on the most urgent issue of modern European politics was not very interesting to anyone. Europe is looking for a way out of the situation in which it turned out to be thanks to the efforts of the Americans. Europe does not need a protracted and large-scale conflict on its borders. And since the United States has too clearly shown that they are not interested in appeasing the civil war, which is raging in Ukraine, it means that Europe will look for another force interested in the world, able to establish and secure it.
At the moment, the United States, it seems, has achieved an intermediate, but very important goal. The Americans managed to give a more legitimate look to their junta in Ukraine by holding a farce called the nationwide election. The junta even had a new face - like a legitimate president. However, further actions, seemingly long ago voiced and agreed upon, no longer meet with support from the closest allies of the United States. After the elections, the Kiev junta has carte blanche for new political repression and new attempts to suppress the uprising (even in case of failure, they are in the interests of the United States). But Russia's intervention was supposed to meet a condemnable condemnation of “progressive humanity”, a wave of sanctions (contrary to the interests of Europe itself), and economic and political isolation. The United States would receive a justification for strengthening the military presence on the borders of Russia, as well as a visible embodiment of the threat requiring the development of a missile defense system. Russia would have received an unnecessary war with a part of its own people until recently, the failure of integration of the post-Soviet space, the weakening of foreign economic relations, military and political pressure, the cessation of the growth of foreign policy weight. It would seem that the weakening of the key geopolitical adversary is as close as ever.
But, as often happens with Americans, something went wrong. At first, Russia does not send troops in response to monstrous provocations, does not recognize the independence of Novorossia, and even demonstratively declares the desired integrity of the former Ukraine. Then he does not react at all to Poroshenko’s “election” by the president of the former Ukraine. He does not make loud statements on the dubious procedure of the “election”, does not refuse to contact the Kiev authorities. Putin even meets personally with the new face of the Kiev junta, thereby indirectly recognizing his power. Instead of the triumphant transformation of Russia into a pariah for "progressive humanity" at the celebration of the opening of the second front - European leaders line up for an audience with the Russian president. And defiantly denied the Americans in all announced initiatives on sanctions.
And even more. Initially, the sly position of the West to end the Ukrainian conflict, which previously consisted in disarming rebellious Novorossia, suddenly turns into Russian-European pressure on Poroshenko in order to force him into dialogue with Novorossia.
The result of this pressure is an emergency change in inaugural speech. From these changes, the speech itself becomes full of contradictions and looks more like confirmation of promises issued to all in a row. Moreover, most of the promises - just impossible. So “the return of the Crimea” is clearly designed for an internal nationalist audience. And the solemn proclamation of the unitary structure of Ukraine directly contradicts the statement about the beginning of the process of decentralization of power. Even less correlated with the slogans about “one and indivisible” - the promise to hold “early local elections in the Donbas to form dialogue partners”.
Yes, Poroshenko was forced to start a real dialogue with Novorossia in Normandy. In fact, this means that the new leader of the junta must sit down at the negotiating table and recognize the representatives of Novorossia as an equal party to the conflict. Just as Putin recognized him as a man with whom you can talk about something. And indeed, by recognizing something that the national elections were supposed to represent in Ukraine, we got one side, which is now responsible for what is happening. While the power in Novorossia is not yet formed and is less legally legitimate than the Kiev junta.
This was a problem for Russia. Now the problem of registration of the statehood of New Russia can be solved. Moreover, the procedure of this design will have to be recognized by the Kiev junta. Let Poroshenko hopes that "early local elections in the Donbass" can be organized in Kiev. He was only required to confirm consent. The real organization will deal with other people. And to prevent this process will not work. After all, his other promise made by Merkel, Hollande and Putin, namely, "... We have to cease fire this week," will have to fulfill. And Obama has nothing to say here. After all, he is for peace and dialogue? Well, let him chew his cud.
However, the United States and the European Commission were able to respond to Russia in another direction of the European "theater of military operations." The suspension of work on the South Stream is Russia's obvious revenge for the failure in the Ukrainian issue. And it is significant that the pressure on Poroshenko was helped by the heads of two national states, and the pressure on Bulgaria and Serbia - by US representatives in cooperation with the European Commission, which is a supranational body of European power.
All this does not mean that a tactical victory in a long battle for Ukraine has already been won. Russia must insist on fulfilling the promises of the Kiev side (good, there is now someone to ask). And not by single statements, but by joint work with Germany and France. The first task is precisely the cease-fire.
After a cease-fire is achieved, the second task will be the organization of humanitarian and organizational assistance to Novorossia. It is also advisable to involve representatives of international organizations for this work.
However, we must not forget that the statehood of New Russia is in its infancy. On the side of the militia there are traitors and provocateurs. And our assistance in organizing legitimate authorities will be complicated by their subversive activities. Almost certainly, they will be used in the coming days to help Poroshenko not to fulfill the cease-fire commitment. This is not about fools who put personal ambitions above a common cause. Several self-defense units were formed by these traitors, who at the right time will act on orders from Kiev. Some armed detachments formally on the side of the uprising will have to be outlawed. Distinguish traitors will be easy, because they weapon - provocations and actions aimed at aggravating the conflict. That is how they will show their true face.