We will not leave them
The political leadership of our country has gone to the maximum possible steps towards the western partners on the situation in Ukraine. However, this does not mean that Russia refuses to help the belligerents of Donetsk and Lugansk. On the contrary, the struggle for Ukraine enters a crucial stage.
In the month that has passed since the referendum on state independence of the Donetsk and Lugansk people's republics, the situation in these regions has become much more complicated. The armed militia of Novorossia suffered heavy losses in the battle for the Donetsk airport, for border facilities in the Luhansk region, in Slavyansk - the account of the dead went to tens. Kiev authorities switched to application aviation and artillery for targets in cities, including Donetsk, which has not suffered from bombing since 1944. Great casualties among the civilian population: air bombs fell into schools, kindergartens of Slavyansk, on the central square of Lugansk, killed civilians on the streets of Donetsk.
Going to a referendum, many residents hoped that in this way they vote for peace and have the right to count on direct assistance to Russia, no less than received the Crimea. Now it is clear that these expectations could not be fulfilled. For the time being, the majority of the population believes in Russia, hates the Kiev authorities and is not totally, but quite massively supports the militia. But the situation may change at any time. More recently, the militia were perceived as defenders from the attack of loyal to Kiev army units and semi-official combat units, funded from Kiev and Dnepropetrovsk, actually "Bandera" and "pravosekov", as hereinafter generally referred to as Maidan volunteers and mercenaries. However, now the militia itself and its actions clearly threaten the civilian population, since they are fighting, including near the populated areas, for strategic goals - military units, airports, border posts. Little by little, discontent arises in the part of the Russian public, which sees in the conciliatory position of official Moscow almost a betrayal of the “Russian world”.
And it is in this situation that it is especially important to be realistic, to have a policy based on calculation, and not on emotions and romantic hopes. The fate of not only Ukraine, but also Russia, as well as Europe and world stability in general, is at stake. That is why it is necessary to clearly understand how events can develop and to have a rational plan of action for any scenario of a crisis unfolding.
First of all, it should be understood that there are boundary conditions. Ukraine, if it continues as a single country (without Crimea), will never be the same anymore. Return to the time before the Maidan is impossible. Donbass will never be able to be part of Ukraine if it tries to stand on the basis of unitarity and ethnonational ideology. Donetsk and Lugansk people's republics are in a certain sense already a part of Russia, since in fact they are the outpost of the “Russian world” in the unfolding conflict. The Russian Federation, even if it wanted to, would no longer be able to renounce influence in these regions and from helping Donbas. The question is what forms of influence and assistance are now possible and necessary.
Why is the Crimean scenario impossible?
The rapid accession to Russia of the Donetsk and Lugansk republics, as happened with the Crimea, is impossible due to a number of factors. The population of Crimea is homogeneous, the vast majority are ethnically Russian. Crimean residents never felt attached to Ukraine, they always remembered historical the injustice of the transfer of Crimea to Ukraine. Moreover, this applies to residents of Sevastopol. Therefore, voting in a referendum on self-determination was almost unanimous. A large Russian military base is located in Crimea. The presence of Russian troops there ensured public order and the prevention of Ukrainian radicals and militants from entering Crimea, which allowed an organized and extremely legitimate referendum. The loss of a base in Sevastopol - and this prospect became real after the coup in Kiev and the rise of anti-Russian forces to power - is absolutely unacceptable from a strategic point of view. In this case, we could lose influence over the entire Black Sea region. The possible advance of NATO into Ukraine and the Crimea is fraught with serious losses in the strategic positioning of Russia. It was impossible to lose Sevastopol. It has actually been recognized by the West.
In the case of the Donetsk and Lugansk republics, the situation is different. The hasty recognition by Russia of these republics, and even more, the entry of Russian troops on their territory can lead to an uncontrolled escalation of tension between Russia and the West. So far, sanctions against Russia are rather symbolic. Serious economic sanctions are fraught with huge losses for European countries. But if the United States breaks off the thread (and their potential losses are just insignificant) and they will force Europe to aggravate, the entire current structure of international relations can falter; risks - political, economic, military - will increase dramatically, and for us too.
Could civil war be avoided
Residents of the east and south of Ukraine demanded little from Kiev. The question of withdrawing from the country was not serious. The citizens of these regions wanted some reasonable autonomy: the election of heads of regions, the redistribution of authority from Kiev to the local level, participation in the distribution of budgets, and the official status of the Russian language. Kiev authorities categorically refused to discuss the proposals of the southeast. The term "federalization" was called criminal, supporters of another, non-unitary, device of the Ukrainian state declared by the separatists. Nevertheless, even at the end of April, public sentiment fluctuated, the population was not ready for radical decisions, the outcome of the referendum planned in the Donetsk and Lugansk regions was not predetermined. However, then the wild actions of the radicals in Odessa followed, where dozens of opponents of the Kiev authorities, opponents of political, unarmed people were burned, shot or poisoned, then there was a demonstrative destruction of the militiamen in Mariupol - the militiamen who refused to perform punitive functions. These events horrified people, doubts disappeared, citizens came to the referendum and voted for independence. In response to such a will of the inhabitants of the east, even if not crystal clear from a formal legal point of view, Kiev began a punitive operation against the citizens of their own country.
The war was unleashed by the Kiev authorities - unable to talk to those who did not support their policies, who did not support the February coup, or even prompted by foreign patrons. The stupid uncompromisingness of Kiev, encouraged by the West, did not leave the inhabitants of the east peacefully, by political means, to seek to take their interests into account.
How can events develop in the republics
One key circumstance can not understand the Kiev elite. The unitary Ukrainian state in the former borders is impossible. It was a unitary Ukrainian state that collapsed, failed, it cannot be returned. Unfortunately, the dominant part of the intellectual class does not understand this either. The “Western” ideology of building the Ukrainian nation with a noticeable emphasis on Bandera became the core of political life. Step left, step right is considered an escape. But a great part of people living in Ukraine cannot agree with this ideology. Recall that about 30% of Ukrainians call their native language Russian, hardly among these people there are many fans of Bandera.
The following scenarios are possible in the east of Ukraine: 1) the military victory of the militias and the creation of a truly functioning independent state of Novorossia; 2) the victory of the militias and the entry of the two republics into Russia; 3) Kiev’s suppression of the insurgent regions; 4) the restoration of relations between Donetsk and Lugansk with Kiev.
It is important to note that in any development of events it will be impossible to return to the “pre-war” position. Bombing their own civilians, blatant disregard for their interests and just contempt for them as second-class people will not be forgotten. The tragic gap between the east and the rest of Ukraine can no longer be sealed without seams. The resulting injury will be felt for decades.
Can Donetsk and Lugansk remain in Ukraine?
Ideological blinders make it unlikely that the natural scenario that Russia is talking about all the time: the cessation of hostilities, Kiev talks with activists of the Donetsk and Lugansk republics, the search for a compromise solution. In this case, the republics could remain part of Ukraine, of course, having received a certain independence.
However, in this case we should talk about the actual re-establishment of the state of Ukraine, during which the regions act as subjects of state-building, sign an agreement on joint life and activities. Moreover, such contracts, as world experience shows, are not necessarily typical. We in Russia have our own experience of complex federal relations of the center with the regions. For example, Chechnya: it is obvious that today its relations with the center are not at all the same as, say, in the Tambov region. These relationships are burdened by the hardest 1990's. But, without doubt, Chechnya is part of the Russian Federation, and the issue of the “standard” has been postponed until future times. Another example is Tatarstan. In 1990, this republic did not transfer taxes to the federal center at all; Moscow tolerated it. Over the past decade, gradually managed to normalize these relations without any excesses whatsoever.
Nevertheless, we emphasize once again: the rational policy of Kiev can allow to keep Donetsk and Lugansk as part of Ukraine.
What will happen in the case of violent suppression of unrecognized republics
The consequences can be the saddest: the shooting of militia, repression against activists and their families, a tough attitude towards the entire "rebellious" population of Donbass. Someone will say: this is not possible here, in Europe. But who could have recently assumed that the Ukrainian army would bomb its own cities, and the National Guard to shoot the wounded in the hospital?
There are many examples of the suppression of disaffected peoples in modern history. In 1987 – 1988, Saddam Hussein launched a “purge” of Kurdistan, known as Operation Anfal. 182 thousand of Kurds were “deprived” (exported by army trucks and destroyed), another 700 thousand were deported from Kurdistan to special camps; by 1991 year, 5 thousand were destroyed from 4,5 thousand settlements in Kurdistan. Villages and small towns were demolished by bulldozers; in order to make the environment unsuitable for living, forests were cut down and wells were concreted.
Say Saddam is an Asian dictator. Here is another European example: a solution to the problem of the Serbian Krajina, part of Croatia’s territory inhabited by ethnic Serbs who wanted to remain part of Yugoslavia. After the defeat of the Serbs in the civil war, the Croats did not grant cultural autonomy to the local Serb population, but simply defeated it. The result of this operation was the cleansing of the region from local residents, to 250 thousand people were forced to flee from Krajina. As a result, today the Serbs make up only 5% of Croatia’s population. West at this simply closed his eyes.
It is very likely that the Ukrainian south-east in the event of a defeat of the LC and the DNI will have the same fate, given the tendency of the Kiev authorities to build a monocultural and mono-national state.
Can the militia win
Donbass militia is, of course, not a regular army, which means that its organization, the first requirement in the conduct of hostilities, is relatively small. However, firstly, among the militia there are a lot of those who have undergone serious training and even have experience of military operations: special forces veterans who fought in Afghanistan, paratrooper veterans. Secondly, the combat capability of the Ukrainian army is low. As you know, during the fighting, the militia shot down several helicopters of the Ukrainian army, according to various sources, from six to eight, which, according to experts, is more than 10% of all flying equipment. A lot of armored vehicles were destroyed: several infantry fighting vehicles, up to ten armored personnel carriers, a T-64 tank, and so on. Estimates of the loss of manpower vary greatly. For example, 29 may and. about. The Minister of Defense of Ukraine, Mikhail Koval, cited the number of casualties "around 20 people." While it is reliably known that only in the battle of Volnovaha 22, the 17 of Ukrainian servicemen died in May. Apparently, the Kiev losses account - in the units of the regular army, the national guard, private battalions - went into the hundreds. If Kiev does not receive military assistance in the form of modern military equipment, instructors and mercenaries, a military victory for him, at least in the short term, is difficult to achieve. On the other hand, the militia forces are not enough to take control of the entire territory of the two regions. Hence, the most likely course of the hostilities is the continuation of local clashes. Eliminate the possibility of winning the militia in the longer term is impossible.
Will the New Russia not be like Abkhazia or Transnistria?
Detractors say: Novorossia will not be able to gain real independence, it will turn out a new version of Abkhazia or Transnistria, whose statehood cannot yet be considered convincing. But there are obvious differences in favor of Novorossia. First, the size. The population of Lugansk and Donetsk regions is 6,6 million people, while in Abkhazia there are 240 thousand people, and in Transnistria - 513 thousand. Abkhazia is another ethnic group prone to some autarky2. The closed border of this republic with Russia is their own decision. As for Transnistria, it is economically weak, remote, not having a common border with Russia. Donetsk and Lugansk regions have a long border with Russia, the economy of these regions is quite strong (more on that below), cooperation ties with Russia are extensive. The processes of "merging" with Russia here can go quickly and painlessly.
How can we help now?
The official entry of regular troops is now impossible. This will not only strike at Russia, but will not help the residents of Donbass, since it will lead to an escalation of the conflict. Nevertheless, military assistance is possible and necessary. Already in the region are volunteers from the Crimea and other regions of Russia. Sometimes you even have to restrain this movement. So, in North and South Ossetia, many young people rush to the front, remembering the help that Russia provided to the Ossetian people in the 2008 conflict of the year. But for the time being, it has been recognized as rational to form units as far as possible from fairly experienced people, since the organization decides more in this conflict than the number of soldiers.
The organization of the militia is a key deficit, there are enough hot heads, few experienced officers. But even now, with a fairly handicraft military organization, the militia is fighting no worse than the Ukrainian army.
But there are things in which the regular army obviously surpasses any militia, the presence of modern heavy equipment and aircraft. And here the help should be such that the Kiev authorities have no illusions that a military victory is possible. For every escalation of the war, as for the removal of the unofficial taboo on the use of aviation in May, an adequate response must be found. And judging by the fact that helicopters and airplanes of the Ukrainian army still sometimes shoot down, this logic to some extent is already in effect.
Not less military important humanitarian and charitable assistance. In modern war, the armed forces can not win without the support of the population, and the support of the population should be guaranteed. And here non-state initiatives can be most effective. So, last Friday, the Donetsk community in Moscow announced the start of systematic work in the field of targeted charitable assistance and that funds in the amount of 100 million rubles have already been raised and can be transferred to Donetsk and Lugansk regions in a short time. Moreover, the fundraising will continue and the total amount may increase by several times.
What should the leadership of the republics do
If we measure by the standards of normal government, the governments of the people's republics are organizationally and staff very weak. Regular management is carried out to the extent that interaction is established with the bureaucracy and local self-government existing in this territory.
This is also due to the fact that the priority of the DPR and the LPR is a military victory. But the republics need to find ways to organize and have a peaceful life. First of all, to organize assistance to victims, victims of military aggression, homeless, children and refugees. At the second stage, it is necessary to try to adjust additional payments and compensations to pensioners, ambulance doctors, other most sensitive groups of the population. This will give an important effect of trust - not everyone will receive help, but all citizens should see that governments are doing justice. Resources for this can be obtained, including through state and non-state aid channels from Russia.
Some types of assistance do not even require money, such as the abolition of quotas for admission to Russian universities for children from the Donetsk and Lugansk republics, assistance to temporary migrants in part of the abolition of a number of strict migration control rules, assistance to entrepreneurs in cooperation with Russian business. Given the involvement of Russia in the situation, such issues should be resolved quickly if there are those who are able to set tasks, persistently formulate requests from the Donbass.
Governments need to maximize the dialogue and engage in the work of civilian professionals - managers, directors of enterprises, officials, entrepreneurs. While it is psychologically difficult - too different people are in military control and in a peaceful life. The enthusiasm and intensity of the struggle brings up the people of a fanatical warehouse, convinced fighters for the "Russian world", most often from more recently marginal parties and strata, and regular management requires a cold head and experience. The government should launch a search for active allies with real management experience, and Russian representatives and the diaspora should help them in this.
It is especially important to attract experienced directors who are able, in particular, to launch standing or decaying enterprises that could start working under the condition of a favorable trade regime with Russia.
What to do if Kiev paralyzes the financial system
While the Kiev authorities do not apply to Donetsk and Lugansk measures of financial impact. And they can be extremely destructive. However, the use of such measures for Kyiv is mutual: turning off the payment system on the territory of these regions will mean their actual ejection from Ukraine.
All subjects of settlements on the territory of these regions, including financial institutions and local branches of banks in other regions of Ukraine, can be promptly transferred by Kiev to accounts with a special mode of payments. This means that banks may selectively or without access to refinancing of the National Bank of Ukraine, may be blocked or frozen "external" payments to local businesses and individuals. It is clear that such actions will lead to a fairly rapid economic paralysis, and after him - and to social chaos.
This extreme scenario should not be considered impossible; it is preferable to think out countermeasures in advance. It is about creating a separate financial system of the DPR and the LPR - here the key point is the "nationalization" of tax administration systems and the "looping" of tax deductions in the republics, the establishment of autonomous social protection systems, primarily the system of pension payments.
The experience of the young independence of such entities as Transnistrian Moldavian Republic, and the same Ukraine of 1992 – 1993, shows that the separation of the financial system is impossible without blocking out the monetary system, establishing its own emission center and introducing some kind of local currency.
There is another, more effective, scenario - the establishment in the Donbass, following the example of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, firstly field work, and then regular branches of the Bank of Russia and, accordingly, the introduction of monetary circulation there in Russian rubles. This option assumes a political model of a more rigid protectorate of the DPR and LPR from Russia.
How economically independent is the Donbass?
Ukraine, of course, is much poorer than Russia. International comparisons of 2011 of the year show the gap in GDP per capita 2,7 times. By the way, compared to the previous round of comparisons (2005 year), he grew. If we compare the regions of Russia and Ukraine, the majority of Ukrainian regions will be at the bottom of the table. Lugansk region, in Ukraine, the ninth largest GRP per capita, would be 72 in Russia. Donetsk region would give a much better result - 49-e place. As we remember, in Soviet times, the Donbass was one of the most powerful industrial regions of the country, and the standard of living there was relatively high. Like now?
The coal and chemical industries, ferrous metallurgy, and heavy mechanical engineering are still strong in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Donetsk region gives about 20% of industrial production in Ukraine and 18% of exports.
The main problem of enterprises in these industries is excessive depreciation of fixed assets. Local oligarchs did not bother to modernize production, trying to squeeze the maximum profit out of the enterprises. Nevertheless, while the enterprises of Donbass keep on foreign markets, including the Russian. For example, Khartsyzsk Tube Works supplies its products to projects such as ESPO, Blue Stream, and the development of the Vankor field. Investments in local enterprises with the aim of improving technological level could increase their competitiveness. In Russia, the wave of investments in such enterprises, carried out in the past decade, has significantly strengthened their market position. Nothing can stop doing the same work here.
In general, local industry is diverse. We will give only some examples. There are high-tech machine-building plants in Kramatorsk, including precision equipment, turning and milling machines (being exported), etc. Luganskteplovoz Production Association is part of the Russian Transmashholding.
Mineral fertilizer enterprises are uncompetitive compared to Russian ones, which is determined by the difference in the price of gas - Russian domestic and export. Theoretically, the integration of these enterprises into the Russian economic system will make them quite effective.
One of the leaders in the Russian light industry, Gloria Jeans (headquartered in the Rostov region) has been operating in the Luhansk region since 2006. In 2011, Gloria launched five new factories in this area at once.
The degree of economic integration of the Donetsk, Luhansk and neighboring Russian regions is very high. In 2010, the so-called Euroregion Donbass appeared. In fact, it is an international association of border areas that independently resolve issues of economic cooperation. In addition to the current work, there are new bold projects. For example, an initiative was announced to revive the Russian mining town of Gukovo as a logistics center serving the entire Donbass - both Russian and Ukrainian parts.
It seems obvious that the two Ukrainian regions, which have declared themselves independent republics, are not only able to feed themselves, but also have a good potential for economic development. And integration into the Russian economy, if necessary, will not be dramatic.
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