We will not leave them

32


The political leadership of our country has gone to the maximum possible steps towards the western partners on the situation in Ukraine. However, this does not mean that Russia refuses to help the belligerents of Donetsk and Lugansk. On the contrary, the struggle for Ukraine enters a crucial stage.

In the month that has passed since the referendum on state independence of the Donetsk and Lugansk people's republics, the situation in these regions has become much more complicated. The armed militia of Novorossia suffered heavy losses in the battle for the Donetsk airport, for border facilities in the Luhansk region, in Slavyansk - the account of the dead went to tens. Kiev authorities switched to application aviation and artillery for targets in cities, including Donetsk, which has not suffered from bombing since 1944. Great casualties among the civilian population: air bombs fell into schools, kindergartens of Slavyansk, on the central square of Lugansk, killed civilians on the streets of Donetsk.

Going to a referendum, many residents hoped that in this way they vote for peace and have the right to count on direct assistance to Russia, no less than received the Crimea. Now it is clear that these expectations could not be fulfilled. For the time being, the majority of the population believes in Russia, hates the Kiev authorities and is not totally, but quite massively supports the militia. But the situation may change at any time. More recently, the militia were perceived as defenders from the attack of loyal to Kiev army units and semi-official combat units, funded from Kiev and Dnepropetrovsk, actually "Bandera" and "pravosekov", as hereinafter generally referred to as Maidan volunteers and mercenaries. However, now the militia itself and its actions clearly threaten the civilian population, since they are fighting, including near the populated areas, for strategic goals - military units, airports, border posts. Little by little, discontent arises in the part of the Russian public, which sees in the conciliatory position of official Moscow almost a betrayal of the “Russian world”.

And it is in this situation that it is especially important to be realistic, to have a policy based on calculation, and not on emotions and romantic hopes. The fate of not only Ukraine, but also Russia, as well as Europe and world stability in general, is at stake. That is why it is necessary to clearly understand how events can develop and to have a rational plan of action for any scenario of a crisis unfolding.

First of all, it should be understood that there are boundary conditions. Ukraine, if it continues as a single country (without Crimea), will never be the same anymore. Return to the time before the Maidan is impossible. Donbass will never be able to be part of Ukraine if it tries to stand on the basis of unitarity and ethnonational ideology. Donetsk and Lugansk people's republics are in a certain sense already a part of Russia, since in fact they are the outpost of the “Russian world” in the unfolding conflict. The Russian Federation, even if it wanted to, would no longer be able to renounce influence in these regions and from helping Donbas. The question is what forms of influence and assistance are now possible and necessary.

Why is the Crimean scenario impossible?

The rapid accession to Russia of the Donetsk and Lugansk republics, as happened with the Crimea, is impossible due to a number of factors. The population of Crimea is homogeneous, the vast majority are ethnically Russian. Crimean residents never felt attached to Ukraine, they always remembered historical the injustice of the transfer of Crimea to Ukraine. Moreover, this applies to residents of Sevastopol. Therefore, voting in a referendum on self-determination was almost unanimous. A large Russian military base is located in Crimea. The presence of Russian troops there ensured public order and the prevention of Ukrainian radicals and militants from entering Crimea, which allowed an organized and extremely legitimate referendum. The loss of a base in Sevastopol - and this prospect became real after the coup in Kiev and the rise of anti-Russian forces to power - is absolutely unacceptable from a strategic point of view. In this case, we could lose influence over the entire Black Sea region. The possible advance of NATO into Ukraine and the Crimea is fraught with serious losses in the strategic positioning of Russia. It was impossible to lose Sevastopol. It has actually been recognized by the West.

In the case of the Donetsk and Lugansk republics, the situation is different. The hasty recognition by Russia of these republics, and even more, the entry of Russian troops on their territory can lead to an uncontrolled escalation of tension between Russia and the West. So far, sanctions against Russia are rather symbolic. Serious economic sanctions are fraught with huge losses for European countries. But if the United States breaks off the thread (and their potential losses are just insignificant) and they will force Europe to aggravate, the entire current structure of international relations can falter; risks - political, economic, military - will increase dramatically, and for us too.

We will not leave them

Holy Assumption Svyatogorsk Lavra under Slavic


Could civil war be avoided

Residents of the east and south of Ukraine demanded little from Kiev. The question of withdrawing from the country was not serious. The citizens of these regions wanted some reasonable autonomy: the election of heads of regions, the redistribution of authority from Kiev to the local level, participation in the distribution of budgets, and the official status of the Russian language. Kiev authorities categorically refused to discuss the proposals of the southeast. The term "federalization" was called criminal, supporters of another, non-unitary, device of the Ukrainian state declared by the separatists. Nevertheless, even at the end of April, public sentiment fluctuated, the population was not ready for radical decisions, the outcome of the referendum planned in the Donetsk and Lugansk regions was not predetermined. However, then the wild actions of the radicals in Odessa followed, where dozens of opponents of the Kiev authorities, opponents of political, unarmed people were burned, shot or poisoned, then there was a demonstrative destruction of the militiamen in Mariupol - the militiamen who refused to perform punitive functions. These events horrified people, doubts disappeared, citizens came to the referendum and voted for independence. In response to such a will of the inhabitants of the east, even if not crystal clear from a formal legal point of view, Kiev began a punitive operation against the citizens of their own country.

The war was unleashed by the Kiev authorities - unable to talk to those who did not support their policies, who did not support the February coup, or even prompted by foreign patrons. The stupid uncompromisingness of Kiev, encouraged by the West, did not leave the inhabitants of the east peacefully, by political means, to seek to take their interests into account.


Breed dumps - artificial mountains of Donbass


How can events develop in the republics

One key circumstance can not understand the Kiev elite. The unitary Ukrainian state in the former borders is impossible. It was a unitary Ukrainian state that collapsed, failed, it cannot be returned. Unfortunately, the dominant part of the intellectual class does not understand this either. The “Western” ideology of building the Ukrainian nation with a noticeable emphasis on Bandera became the core of political life. Step left, step right is considered an escape. But a great part of people living in Ukraine cannot agree with this ideology. Recall that about 30% of Ukrainians call their native language Russian, hardly among these people there are many fans of Bandera.

The following scenarios are possible in the east of Ukraine: 1) the military victory of the militias and the creation of a truly functioning independent state of Novorossia; 2) the victory of the militias and the entry of the two republics into Russia; 3) Kiev’s suppression of the insurgent regions; 4) the restoration of relations between Donetsk and Lugansk with Kiev.

It is important to note that in any development of events it will be impossible to return to the “pre-war” position. Bombing their own civilians, blatant disregard for their interests and just contempt for them as second-class people will not be forgotten. The tragic gap between the east and the rest of Ukraine can no longer be sealed without seams. The resulting injury will be felt for decades.


Monument to Grigory Kapustin, the discoverer of Donbass, in Makeyevka


Can Donetsk and Lugansk remain in Ukraine?

Ideological blinders make it unlikely that the natural scenario that Russia is talking about all the time: the cessation of hostilities, Kiev talks with activists of the Donetsk and Lugansk republics, the search for a compromise solution. In this case, the republics could remain part of Ukraine, of course, having received a certain independence.

However, in this case we should talk about the actual re-establishment of the state of Ukraine, during which the regions act as subjects of state-building, sign an agreement on joint life and activities. Moreover, such contracts, as world experience shows, are not necessarily typical. We in Russia have our own experience of complex federal relations of the center with the regions. For example, Chechnya: it is obvious that today its relations with the center are not at all the same as, say, in the Tambov region. These relationships are burdened by the hardest 1990's. But, without doubt, Chechnya is part of the Russian Federation, and the issue of the “standard” has been postponed until future times. Another example is Tatarstan. In 1990, this republic did not transfer taxes to the federal center at all; Moscow tolerated it. Over the past decade, gradually managed to normalize these relations without any excesses whatsoever.

Nevertheless, we emphasize once again: the rational policy of Kiev can allow to keep Donetsk and Lugansk as part of Ukraine.

What will happen in the case of violent suppression of unrecognized republics

The consequences can be the saddest: the shooting of militia, repression against activists and their families, a tough attitude towards the entire "rebellious" population of Donbass. Someone will say: this is not possible here, in Europe. But who could have recently assumed that the Ukrainian army would bomb its own cities, and the National Guard to shoot the wounded in the hospital?

There are many examples of the suppression of disaffected peoples in modern history. In 1987 – 1988, Saddam Hussein launched a “purge” of Kurdistan, known as Operation Anfal. 182 thousand of Kurds were “deprived” (exported by army trucks and destroyed), another 700 thousand were deported from Kurdistan to special camps; by 1991 year, 5 thousand were destroyed from 4,5 thousand settlements in Kurdistan. Villages and small towns were demolished by bulldozers; in order to make the environment unsuitable for living, forests were cut down and wells were concreted.

Say Saddam is an Asian dictator. Here is another European example: a solution to the problem of the Serbian Krajina, part of Croatia’s territory inhabited by ethnic Serbs who wanted to remain part of Yugoslavia. After the defeat of the Serbs in the civil war, the Croats did not grant cultural autonomy to the local Serb population, but simply defeated it. The result of this operation was the cleansing of the region from local residents, to 250 thousand people were forced to flee from Krajina. As a result, today the Serbs make up only 5% of Croatia’s population. West at this simply closed his eyes.

It is very likely that the Ukrainian south-east in the event of a defeat of the LC and the DNI will have the same fate, given the tendency of the Kiev authorities to build a monocultural and mono-national state.



Can the militia win

Donbass militia is, of course, not a regular army, which means that its organization, the first requirement in the conduct of hostilities, is relatively small. However, firstly, among the militia there are a lot of those who have undergone serious training and even have experience of military operations: special forces veterans who fought in Afghanistan, paratrooper veterans. Secondly, the combat capability of the Ukrainian army is low. As you know, during the fighting, the militia shot down several helicopters of the Ukrainian army, according to various sources, from six to eight, which, according to experts, is more than 10% of all flying equipment. A lot of armored vehicles were destroyed: several infantry fighting vehicles, up to ten armored personnel carriers, a T-64 tank, and so on. Estimates of the loss of manpower vary greatly. For example, 29 may and. about. The Minister of Defense of Ukraine, Mikhail Koval, cited the number of casualties "around 20 people." While it is reliably known that only in the battle of Volnovaha 22, the 17 of Ukrainian servicemen died in May. Apparently, the Kiev losses account - in the units of the regular army, the national guard, private battalions - went into the hundreds. If Kiev does not receive military assistance in the form of modern military equipment, instructors and mercenaries, a military victory for him, at least in the short term, is difficult to achieve. On the other hand, the militia forces are not enough to take control of the entire territory of the two regions. Hence, the most likely course of the hostilities is the continuation of local clashes. Eliminate the possibility of winning the militia in the longer term is impossible.

Will the New Russia not be like Abkhazia or Transnistria?

Detractors say: Novorossia will not be able to gain real independence, it will turn out a new version of Abkhazia or Transnistria, whose statehood cannot yet be considered convincing. But there are obvious differences in favor of Novorossia. First, the size. The population of Lugansk and Donetsk regions is 6,6 million people, while in Abkhazia there are 240 thousand people, and in Transnistria - 513 thousand. Abkhazia is another ethnic group prone to some autarky2. The closed border of this republic with Russia is their own decision. As for Transnistria, it is economically weak, remote, not having a common border with Russia. Donetsk and Lugansk regions have a long border with Russia, the economy of these regions is quite strong (more on that below), cooperation ties with Russia are extensive. The processes of "merging" with Russia here can go quickly and painlessly.

How can we help now?

The official entry of regular troops is now impossible. This will not only strike at Russia, but will not help the residents of Donbass, since it will lead to an escalation of the conflict. Nevertheless, military assistance is possible and necessary. Already in the region are volunteers from the Crimea and other regions of Russia. Sometimes you even have to restrain this movement. So, in North and South Ossetia, many young people rush to the front, remembering the help that Russia provided to the Ossetian people in the 2008 conflict of the year. But for the time being, it has been recognized as rational to form units as far as possible from fairly experienced people, since the organization decides more in this conflict than the number of soldiers.

The organization of the militia is a key deficit, there are enough hot heads, few experienced officers. But even now, with a fairly handicraft military organization, the militia is fighting no worse than the Ukrainian army.

But there are things in which the regular army obviously surpasses any militia, the presence of modern heavy equipment and aircraft. And here the help should be such that the Kiev authorities have no illusions that a military victory is possible. For every escalation of the war, as for the removal of the unofficial taboo on the use of aviation in May, an adequate response must be found. And judging by the fact that helicopters and airplanes of the Ukrainian army still sometimes shoot down, this logic to some extent is already in effect.

Not less military important humanitarian and charitable assistance. In modern war, the armed forces can not win without the support of the population, and the support of the population should be guaranteed. And here non-state initiatives can be most effective. So, last Friday, the Donetsk community in Moscow announced the start of systematic work in the field of targeted charitable assistance and that funds in the amount of 100 million rubles have already been raised and can be transferred to Donetsk and Lugansk regions in a short time. Moreover, the fundraising will continue and the total amount may increase by several times.

What should the leadership of the republics do

If we measure by the standards of normal government, the governments of the people's republics are organizationally and staff very weak. Regular management is carried out to the extent that interaction is established with the bureaucracy and local self-government existing in this territory.

This is also due to the fact that the priority of the DPR and the LPR is a military victory. But the republics need to find ways to organize and have a peaceful life. First of all, to organize assistance to victims, victims of military aggression, homeless, children and refugees. At the second stage, it is necessary to try to adjust additional payments and compensations to pensioners, ambulance doctors, other most sensitive groups of the population. This will give an important effect of trust - not everyone will receive help, but all citizens should see that governments are doing justice. Resources for this can be obtained, including through state and non-state aid channels from Russia.

Some types of assistance do not even require money, such as the abolition of quotas for admission to Russian universities for children from the Donetsk and Lugansk republics, assistance to temporary migrants in part of the abolition of a number of strict migration control rules, assistance to entrepreneurs in cooperation with Russian business. Given the involvement of Russia in the situation, such issues should be resolved quickly if there are those who are able to set tasks, persistently formulate requests from the Donbass.

Governments need to maximize the dialogue and engage in the work of civilian professionals - managers, directors of enterprises, officials, entrepreneurs. While it is psychologically difficult - too different people are in military control and in a peaceful life. The enthusiasm and intensity of the struggle brings up the people of a fanatical warehouse, convinced fighters for the "Russian world", most often from more recently marginal parties and strata, and regular management requires a cold head and experience. The government should launch a search for active allies with real management experience, and Russian representatives and the diaspora should help them in this.

It is especially important to attract experienced directors who are able, in particular, to launch standing or decaying enterprises that could start working under the condition of a favorable trade regime with Russia.

What to do if Kiev paralyzes the financial system

While the Kiev authorities do not apply to Donetsk and Lugansk measures of financial impact. And they can be extremely destructive. However, the use of such measures for Kyiv is mutual: turning off the payment system on the territory of these regions will mean their actual ejection from Ukraine.

All subjects of settlements on the territory of these regions, including financial institutions and local branches of banks in other regions of Ukraine, can be promptly transferred by Kiev to accounts with a special mode of payments. This means that banks may selectively or without access to refinancing of the National Bank of Ukraine, may be blocked or frozen "external" payments to local businesses and individuals. It is clear that such actions will lead to a fairly rapid economic paralysis, and after him - and to social chaos.

This extreme scenario should not be considered impossible; it is preferable to think out countermeasures in advance. It is about creating a separate financial system of the DPR and the LPR - here the key point is the "nationalization" of tax administration systems and the "looping" of tax deductions in the republics, the establishment of autonomous social protection systems, primarily the system of pension payments.

The experience of the young independence of such entities as Transnistrian Moldavian Republic, and the same Ukraine of 1992 – 1993, shows that the separation of the financial system is impossible without blocking out the monetary system, establishing its own emission center and introducing some kind of local currency.

There is another, more effective, scenario - the establishment in the Donbass, following the example of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, firstly field work, and then regular branches of the Bank of Russia and, accordingly, the introduction of monetary circulation there in Russian rubles. This option assumes a political model of a more rigid protectorate of the DPR and LPR from Russia.

How economically independent is the Donbass?
Ukraine, of course, is much poorer than Russia. International comparisons of 2011 of the year show the gap in GDP per capita 2,7 times. By the way, compared to the previous round of comparisons (2005 year), he grew. If we compare the regions of Russia and Ukraine, the majority of Ukrainian regions will be at the bottom of the table. Lugansk region, in Ukraine, the ninth largest GRP per capita, would be 72 in Russia. Donetsk region would give a much better result - 49-e place. As we remember, in Soviet times, the Donbass was one of the most powerful industrial regions of the country, and the standard of living there was relatively high. Like now?

The coal and chemical industries, ferrous metallurgy, and heavy mechanical engineering are still strong in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Donetsk region gives about 20% of industrial production in Ukraine and 18% of exports.

The main problem of enterprises in these industries is excessive depreciation of fixed assets. Local oligarchs did not bother to modernize production, trying to squeeze the maximum profit out of the enterprises. Nevertheless, while the enterprises of Donbass keep on foreign markets, including the Russian. For example, Khartsyzsk Tube Works supplies its products to projects such as ESPO, Blue Stream, and the development of the Vankor field. Investments in local enterprises with the aim of improving technological level could increase their competitiveness. In Russia, the wave of investments in such enterprises, carried out in the past decade, has significantly strengthened their market position. Nothing can stop doing the same work here.

In general, local industry is diverse. We will give only some examples. There are high-tech machine-building plants in Kramatorsk, including precision equipment, turning and milling machines (being exported), etc. Luganskteplovoz Production Association is part of the Russian Transmashholding.

Mineral fertilizer enterprises are uncompetitive compared to Russian ones, which is determined by the difference in the price of gas - Russian domestic and export. Theoretically, the integration of these enterprises into the Russian economic system will make them quite effective.

One of the leaders in the Russian light industry, Gloria Jeans (headquartered in the Rostov region) has been operating in the Luhansk region since 2006. In 2011, Gloria launched five new factories in this area at once.

The degree of economic integration of the Donetsk, Luhansk and neighboring Russian regions is very high. In 2010, the so-called Euroregion Donbass appeared. In fact, it is an international association of border areas that independently resolve issues of economic cooperation. In addition to the current work, there are new bold projects. For example, an initiative was announced to revive the Russian mining town of Gukovo as a logistics center serving the entire Donbass - both Russian and Ukrainian parts.

It seems obvious that the two Ukrainian regions, which have declared themselves independent republics, are not only able to feed themselves, but also have a good potential for economic development. And integration into the Russian economy, if necessary, will not be dramatic.
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32 comments
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  1. +7
    10 June 2014 13: 09
    No worse than waiting and catching up!
    And this is happening now ...
    1. 0
      10 June 2014 13: 11

      What arguments are needed?
      1. +8
        10 June 2014 13: 18
        They need to be separated, otherwise it will be forever ...
      2. 0
        10 June 2014 19: 48
        Strong. Exactly.
    2. nickname 1 and 2
      +2
      10 June 2014 14: 03
      Thank you for such thoroughness! All painted and told. If also relatively accurately ours to you with a brush! hi

      And let there be light!
      1. +4
        10 June 2014 17: 22
        All this nonsense, if you wish, you can justify anything and very reliably. The Senate gave Putin the go-ahead to send troops to Ukraine, but he probably knew that this would never happen, so to raise the rating, to divert the eyes of the electorate. Power, both in Ukraine and in us, and in the West is anti-people. In Ukraine, hard workers will be driven into mines so that they do not protrude, and we also realized that too much independence of the people will not bring to good. The usual connection between Western, Ukrainian and Russian capital is taking place, money will always come to an agreement with each other, everyone will be let loose, no one needs a new, possible socialism. No one will regret ordinary citizens, they are just humus for money.
    3. The comment was deleted.
  2. +2
    10 June 2014 13: 13
    we cannot, but we can
    1. 11111mail.ru
      0
      10 June 2014 21: 36
      Quote: saag
      we cannot, but we can

      You'd better decide ...
  3. +3
    10 June 2014 13: 14
    Russia is waiting for the West to stumble in its actions in Ukraine, and seizing the initiative in its own hands, primarily in the information environment, will make Russian the world language.
    1. +6
      10 June 2014 13: 59
      Quote: NAV-STAR
      Russia is waiting for the West to stumble in its actions in Ukraine

      Why the hell are there to wait?
      The whole experience of world history teaches that in conflicts one of the parties is forced to concede ... Who concedes?
      The one who suffered military setbacks and the one who has something to lose, as the Turkish empire gave Russia the Black Sea at the time.
      One who does not have the strength and money to resist, like China in the 19th century.
      And finally, the one who does not want to continue the struggle (France in 1940)
      In the case of Donbass and Ukraine, the knot is complex, and it will not be easy to pass it without Russia's losses.
      But, it is quite possible to provide such military-technical assistance so that the armed people of Donbass could not defeat banderlogs who do not want to fight and are not ready to die.
      Will overseas help them? Perhaps, but she will not fight for banderlogs. But the villagers are embittered, they won’t go to war, they will shout their voices to get out and hide from the military enlistment offices.
      Don't "want" to pay for gas? All are warned, it is necessary not to supply volumes for Ukraine without prepayment. They will steal from European volumes. The gayropeans will squeak - then fruitful negotiations will begin. Maybe this will happen only closer to winter. Well, better late than never.
      Are there any losses for Russia? Yes. And to force things, to yell, to launch propaganda like I’ll land everyone, I don’t need to.
      It is necessary to "minimize risks", they say, we are always welcome, and we will give a discount, within reason, and we will provide a gas supply, and we do not mind cooperating, but ... there is no payment request
      They say that they are ready to close the border, but the banderlogs are shooting, we do not have such rights that our high-risk people risk that the banderlogs are furious. Not able to close the border tightly, it’s not possible.
      But it’s possible to cover up for Ukrainian goods, all the more so as they gathered in the association ...
      And also collect debt for gas from Ukrainian migrant workers in the form of taxes and various payments. Do not walk on the Maidan, do not hear nonsense, think with your head.
      1. scarp
        +4
        10 June 2014 15: 46
        It's too late to wait. And to no avail.
        There was a unique opportunity in March to eliminate a non-state misunderstanding called Ukraine. Bloodlessly. Quickly. Send troops. Arrest Yatsenyuk, Klitschko, Tyagnibok, Yarosh, Poroshenko, Kolomoisky, Taruta, Turchinov. Accuse of forcible overthrow of legitimate authority according to the UKRAINIAN CRIMINAL CODE. Interrogate with partiality. Many interesting things would tell. Return until September Yanukovych. To disperse to the high points of the Maidan. Active Natsik to Siberia. To the West, the essence of interrogations in the face - is that you, partners, have muddied the coup at our borders? According to your instructions, people were shot on the Independence Square, etc.? Well then get: the whole gang for the bunks, a federal referendum, Novorossia with Crimea as part of Russia, Galicia with Kiev - tse Ukraine, the successor to Ukraine for debts and obligations. And with Yule at the head. Or Farion, we really care about the light bulb. There would be no Odessa, Slavyansk, Mariupol. Nor would Lukashenko betray Nazarbayev in the long run. The Americans would think ten times next whether it was necessary to arrange another coup d'etat near our borders. Sanctions? When I already hear this balm in my ears: Russia, due to the intervention of Western countries and the desire to expand NATO to the east, is imposing sanctions against Europe, the USA and the Baltic countries, including the supply of energy carriers and the refusal to pay for them in US dollars. Sell ​​Mercedes, MANs and BMWs with auditions to Africa. Sprats there too. Buy gas in Qatar for 600. No LNG terminals? Your problems. 350 from Russia was expensive. Build the South Stream yourself, the meter is now on the border of the Russian Federation. Ukraine should stop a dozen lards of money until you give it away, you can forget about gas, start to freeze - pay for the beggars yourself. In the meantime, we have in the next branch a “sophisticated military plan”, put as many militias as possible so that the world is horrified by the actions of the junta, and then ...
      2. 0
        10 June 2014 17: 30
        leaked everything. and we were leaked
      3. +2
        10 June 2014 17: 35
        Alekseev (1) --- As you live in another country, the information that Gazprom, our "national treasure" is trying to come to an agreement with the banderlog, does not come out of the channel Vesti 24. Well, it is necessary to support them, so that they do not bend and have their own pretty penny. Ukraine cut off the water to the Crimea and was not grieving about money, she knew that the government would not be left without gas by a parcel.
        1. 0
          10 June 2014 19: 25
          Quote: varov14
          Alekseev (1) --- As you live in another country, the information that Gazprom, our "national treasure" is trying to come to an agreement with the banderlog, does not come off the channel of Vesti 24

          Does the information come down?
          But indeed it is, unfortunately.
          Little we produceexcept raw materials other productsTherefore, gas export is so important, and even more important is oil.
          That's how to take and spend 35-40 billion dollars for the fun of America itself, but freeze banderlogs! And the gay people are with them.
          And they themselves suck a little paw for the company.
          No, we have to fight here. There Yush and Yulia both performed, and then Ukraine paid anyway. And at one of the highest prices in Geyrop. And now you have to try so hard.
          The main banderlogs will not freeze, the bulk will have to go chi to the woodcutter, chi to the right or homosexual. Yes
  4. +9
    10 June 2014 13: 19
    Great analytical article!

    "Local oligarchs did not bother with the modernization of production, trying to squeeze the maximum profit from enterprises."

    Ours also did not overdo it .....
  5. bda
    bda
    -9
    10 June 2014 13: 19
    the struggle for Ukraine goes into a decisive stage

    This is such a tricky-ingenious multi-way plan:
    1. Now buy Mr. Poroshenko gas discounts twice as discounted than they gave Yanukovych;
    2. After Mr. Poroshenko becomes the officially-appointed best friend of Russia, provoke Maidan No. 3;
    3. Bring to power in Kiev (as a result of Maidan No. 3) Mrs. Yulia Tymoshenko;
    4. Conclude a new gas supply agreement with Mrs. Yulia Tymoshenko (as was usually done with her before) at a much higher price.
    5. Voila! - everything in chocolate produced by the Roshen concern (to which, by way of compensation, Korkunov, Krasny Oktyabr, etc., etc.) will go.

    PS: oh yes, there in the Donbass people are still rebelling, but some obscure fascists are killing him, despising our gas intrigues from Mount Karachun? - Let them understand it in one word.
    1. 0
      10 June 2014 17: 46
      bda --- Green has long outbid everyone and all, scolded but quiet only at him and praying - the main god of our time. About what?
    2. 11111mail.ru
      0
      10 June 2014 21: 41
      Quote: bda
      Donbass people still rebel, and some strange Nazis kill him

      Poor, got stoned or cracked?
  6. +3
    10 June 2014 13: 22
    Novorossia is a new state entity in Europe, and if it is not necessary to speak unequivocally about its independence, then we can certainly say that Novorossia will never be a part of Ukraine, even if the structure of the republic is federal. The sooner the West and the "Kiev authorities" understand this, the fewer victims among the civilian population and the faster the restoration process will begin, for Ukraine as well. I don’t understand why Ukrainian citizens do not notice the pre-default state in which the country has been for a long time.
  7. bda
    bda
    0
    10 June 2014 13: 27
    Quote: NAV-STAR
    Russia is waiting for the West to stumble in its actions in Ukraine


    We would have to go to the West even under Dubosekovo Rally, if we should lure a mound on Mamaev - so that it would stumble for sure!
  8. Alexandr 2
    +3
    10 June 2014 13: 30
    Donetsk and Lugansk region in a referendum showed that they are with Russia.
    They, with their voices and their will, went against the murderers who kill their children.
    And we throw them to the mercy.
    If Russia does not abandon New Russia, it will be worthy of a great country.
  9. +2
    10 June 2014 13: 34
    In such cases, when such articles are posted, I would like to have information about the authors. Many here on the forum can argue on the topic "who should do what", carefully avoiding sharp corners. Such a "pacifying" style - they say calm down, citizens, in fact, everything is almost good .. Not a large - but significant - part of the material I have already met personally in third-party publications, and, in places, word for word. An "incomprehensible" article with an unclear position.
  10. +3
    10 June 2014 13: 41
    New Russia should be free! And no other options!
  11. +1
    10 June 2014 13: 45
    A completely sober, balanced look at the history and prospects of its development.
  12. +1
    10 June 2014 13: 51
    The following scenarios are possible in the east of Ukraine: 1) the military victory of the militias and the creation of a truly functioning independent state of Novorossia; 2) the victory of the militias and the entry of the two republics into Russia; 3) Kiev’s suppression of the insurgent regions; 4) the restoration of relations between Donetsk and Lugansk with Kiev.

    Any of us will offer such scenes while sitting on the couch. In no case do I detract from the work of the author. The article is a plus! But he faithfully outlined his vision of all these scenarios. But the truth is without certain predictions. Ungrateful business - forecasts. Basically, all authors describing events in Ukraine, give out wishful thinking, and wishful thinking. There are disturbing notes and optimism in his lines. And more pragmatism.
    My optimism (I cannot judge pragmatism) is based on the fact that, according to the laws of history, any fascist state (and Urkain has already become a fact of it) is doomed to collapse, although it has brought untold misfortunes and sufferings to its and its neighboring peoples. So the battle is long and costly (I replace it with a bloody one). Swoop and cheers-patriotism can not be defeated. May God give wisdom and endurance to our leadership, of course, to Putin.
  13. +2
    10 June 2014 13: 54
    If you want, you don’t want, but you need to separate. When they kill, burn, bomb, rape and negotiate peace and friendship with them, one must be a complete moron and live in an appropriate place. soldier
  14. +2
    10 June 2014 14: 14
    Of course, we will not give up, but still I want action ......
  15. +2
    10 June 2014 14: 27
    I want them to win !!!
  16. +5
    10 June 2014 14: 28
    Three groups of special forces with the support of 2 IMR attacked the Ukrainian checkpoint blocking movement between Slavyansk and Kramatorsk. The operation was prepared within a week.

    The spectacle turned out to be enchanting - the calculation of the AGS and 2 Ukrainian sniper pairs were taken off. At the same time, 2 IMR moved to the junta position. From the speakers installed on one of them, Vysotsky’s song GOED TO UKRAINE OF THE CENTER GROUP SOLDIERS.

    The IMR went round and round, digging out the trenches with ukrovoyaki in a dump. The surviving herd united in a field in the direction of Karachun. But it was met by its own fire and lay dead. Only then the artillery transferred fire to our IDR. One returned safely to Kramatorsk together with specialists. .but the dying Petrovich reached out to Slavyansk.

    RESULTS OF THE FIGHT - destroyed by our snipers 7. buried with the trench - at least 14. wounded. Including fire of own artillery about 35. Moreover, the wounded were not taken out until this time. The unit was completely destroyed.
    IMR - an engineering demolition vehicle developed on the modified chassis of the T-72 tank with the turret and weapons removed. The machine was adopted in 1980.
    Details here


    1. +1
      10 June 2014 16: 47
      Vladimir Semyonovich was a little mistaken, the soldiers of the "Center" group were walking across Belarus, although I have nothing against the song!
      1. 0
        10 June 2014 16: 57
        Quote: 78bor1973
        Vladimir Semyonovich was a little mistaken, the soldiers of the "Center" group were walking across Belarus, although I have nothing against the song!


        Similarly!
        And let the Ukrainian monsters peer into these frames, suddenly find their similarity ...

      2. 11111mail.ru
        0
        10 June 2014 22: 07
        Quote: 78bor1973
        Vladimir Semenovich a bit wrong, the soldiers of the "Center" group were walking across Belarus,

        Not mistaken... Transfer 2 tg. (G. Guderian) to the south meant the collapse of "Barbarossa". http://militera.lib.ru/research/myagkov/01.html
        The troops of the South-Western Front were to be defeated "in the triangle of Kremenchug, Kiev, Konotop" by GA "South" forces and the southern flank of GA "Center" followed by a regrouping of forces of the 2nd, 6th armies and 2nd tank group for new operation.
        http://www.opoccuu.com/220611.htm
        in Ukraine, troops with heavy battles retreated to Kiev and defended it until, as a result of the attack of the 2nd tank group from the same Belarus, they were not surrounded.
  17. +1
    10 June 2014 14: 34
    authors water in a mortar ceased that's the whole article.
  18. StepanovTDSM
    +2
    10 June 2014 14: 52
    Take the greatcoat went to Lugansk.
  19. +2
    10 June 2014 15: 07
    there would be more of these in Europe
  20. Counter
    +3
    10 June 2014 15: 19
    So what was the article about the advantages? With the help of "many letters" in it, they summed up the rationale for the drain of the east, and voila! But the truth seems much more prosaic: the Kremlin really just got cold feet! Among the main "achievements" is that the degree of tension between Russia and the West has now been lifted. But one "problem" remained: Crimea. And now, not reading too much into the "many letters" at the top, you can derive a much simpler forecast for the future, not as florid as in the article. Now, after the draining of the resistance in the east, civilians will be withdrawn from there along "humanitarian corridors", and the resistance itself will be crushed. And then they will move on to the next "phase of the operation": the return of Crimea.
    In the course of the quite foreseeable future, Ukraine will be duly, and quite officially, "armed" and set against Russia FULLY! What follows from this. That the pravosek people and the entire Bender movement in the near future in Ukraine are not in danger. They will continue, and even with redoubled energy, will be trained on hatred of the Russians, keeping this bull terrier on a short leash for the time being. Maybe they will be used for the time being to "maintain order" in the southeast. And when the West considers that the "independent" Ukraine has been prepared "properly", the command "fas" will be given, now to return the Crimea. WAR WILL BE! And very soon. Backing down, the Kremlin only pushed it back for a while. But at the same time, under "a lot of letters", he retreated to obviously weakened positions. This means that in the end it will take much more blood to defend Crimea. Well, what will happen next, only the Lord God knows! Personally, I see the development of the situation now only in this vein.
    1. 0
      10 June 2014 15: 37
      A lot of emotions, but the sense is "0".
      Because of this, many times Russia found itself in a space ass.
      Many have already fantasized to themselves that the Southeast is like Crimea. We’ll come and everything will be fine ... friendship chewing gum, etc. That's just not true.
      You can minus as much as you like, but the fact is that Ukrainians already live there, who simply do not want to be completely Ukrainized.
      If they hadn’t been touched, then at least fans of Bandera and Hitler would have cut out the whole Crimea, everyone else would have had my hut’s attitude to the edge and in general they were to blame, I had to obey.
  21. +1
    10 June 2014 15: 24
    Going to a referendum, many residents hoped that in this way they vote for peace and have the right to count on direct assistance to Russia, no less than the Crimea received. Now it is clear that these expectations could not be fulfilled. So far, the majority of the population believes in Russia,
    Well, for now. Air raids, they greatly change beliefs!
  22. komrad.klim
    +1
    10 June 2014 15: 37
    The young republics of the LPR of the DPR need to build a vertical of power from those people who are able, at least at the initial level, to organize order in all spheres and life systems of the local society.
  23. +1
    10 June 2014 15: 42
    As we recall, in Soviet times, the Donbass was one of the most powerful industrial regions of the country, and the standard of living there was relatively high. Like now?

    I remember how many miners in the USSR earned !!! So the current middle class on the side would nervously smoke!
  24. Vladimir I
    +3
    10 June 2014 16: 01
    The title of the article is "We will not leave you."

    Indeed, the drain and betrayal will be counted by the Kremlin precisely as a major foreign policy defeat caused by anti-national, anti-Russian policies.
    There is no chance to convince the inhabitants of Russia and the south-east of Ukraine that it was great state wisdom and responsibility - no. Either it was at the beginning an ill-conceived irresponsible stupidity, whose place in the annals of history (they dragged 7 million people into the war, and then did not come to the battlefield), or at the end it was meanness and cowardice, increased by the fact that no one even spoke about people tried to think and ease their suffering.

    Perhaps it would be better if you didn’t "lift" us while you are weak?
  25. +1
    10 June 2014 16: 23
    On the 11th, they promised to block the gas, and there everything will become clear. It is only clear that Ukraine has finally become an American colony, and all negotiations are conducted precisely with the Americans. And Poroshenko - so fiction.
  26. 0
    10 June 2014 16: 40
    the article is correct and necessary, but this is the opinion of the authors and not the voice of the state policy of the authorities. We hope to help the militia with weapons
  27. +2
    10 June 2014 16: 46
    I.V. Stalin was not afraid of Western parasites and therefore helped Spain as best he could. The rulers of the Russian Federation are afraid of everything and especially lose their golden sacks and therefore betray the Russians in Donetsk and Lugansk with their talker instead of help fellow tongue
  28. 0
    10 June 2014 17: 21
    Quote: StepanovTDSM
    Take the greatcoat went to Lugansk.

    Would go, if not small children! I didn't "run away" from the war! "She herself" "came running"!
  29. 0
    10 June 2014 17: 26
    Quote: Himalayan

    What arguments are needed?

    with any cons? Bandera is shown here in all its "glory"
  30. portoc65
    0
    10 June 2014 19: 15
    The only way for the new government is to tightly close the border with Roossia. Then, one by one, deal with all that they do. Slavyansk will fall, take up Lugansk, then come to Donetsk. The strength of the militia is clearly not enough. It seems to me that Russia should accept as during the Second World War leadership and organization of the partisan movement with the operation planning center. And resistance should be led by specialists.
  31. Argyn-suindyk
    0
    10 June 2014 19: 53
    I want to be understood correctly! Diplomacy and international law cannot be solved by honest and noble means there! We need sophisticated well-prepared provocations! With scoundrels for vile! For example, the "murder" of an ambassador! There are a lot of dirty methods.
  32. 0
    11 June 2014 00: 30
    We'll have to answer this article with quotes from an article by E. Holmogorov on 09.06.2014/XNUMX/XNUMX, nothing else remains.

    1. When Strelkov’s people entered Slavyansk, as well as rallied in Lugansk and Odessa, the ideology (and attitude) was clear - to hold out until the moment when Russia enters peacekeeping forces.

    2. Then the Kremlin got cold feet. I will not individually throw stones at anyone, especially at Putin, since I have no task to shout: "Putin's gang is on trial" - the rulers are responsible for such sins at the Last Judgment. But it must be clearly understood that the Kremlin was exactly the one who chickened out Western pressure and Western threats, and not "began to adhere to a cunning plan."

    5. It may be that someone can do literary cover for this shame, but not me, because my position was always clear and unambiguous, and if we had adhered to it, now all the trump cards would be in our hands.

    9. There is no need to talk about the critical level of sanctions in the event of such a policy (direct military intervention, SV Activist), since the critical level of sanctions - painful and humiliating - is what they will now begin to perform over the cowardly ..., the damage from such sanctions on in relation to the loser is much higher than it would be from "repressive sanctions" in relation to the winner.

    12. The option of urgently pumping up the Strelkov group with everything necessary and continuing to evade the official entry into a collision is less preferable. The essence of the "leash" on which the West keeps the Kremlin, in particular, is that they will not give any real assistance to Donbass with impunity. And therefore, in terms of foreign policy implications, indirect assistance is likely to be at the same price or even more expensive than direct ... At the same time, if successful, Russia will not have the status of a winner, which is critically important for untie this whole knot. Let me remind you again - the winner is not judged, the loser pays twice, three times, and how many times they ask.

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