Jacob Kedmi on Ukraine: Federalization or Civil War
Mark Gorin: Hello friends!
We are on the Iton TV channel in the "Special Folder" program
My name is Mark Gorin, my competent interlocutor Jacob Kedmi is with me in the studio. Hello Yasha!
Jacob Kedmi: Good afternoon!
Mark Gorin: Yasha, it’s quite natural that the week is replaced by a week, and we are forced to continue to remain in the anxious space of today's Ukraine. It seemed that the elections somehow calm the situation. (credits - Mark Gorin editor of the newspaper “Sputnik”) But elections were held. For the first time since the election of Ukrainian presidents, he was elected in the first round - 55%. It would seem that there is some kind of unity of the people ... But, nevertheless, the conflict in the east of Ukraine, in fact, civil war ... Well, let's not such hard terms ... Conflict, severe conflict leads to hundreds of dead. Is there any way out of this? And which?
Jacob Kedmi: Well, first of all, the question is not whether there is any theoretical solution, but the question is, what goals do the parties to the conflict pursue, and how do events develop?
Mark Gorin: Well, the side of Kiev is clear, she wants to pacify ...
Jacob Kedmi: What does he want?
Mark Gorin: She wants to pacify conflict and calm.
Jacob Kedmi: If the goal were - peace, then it was not necessary ... Then there would be no conflict. The conflict began due to the fact that some side wanted to achieve some goals. And therefore, Ukraine was withdrawn from the state of precarious balance in which it was. It is interesting to see what goals were set by one or other parties involved in the conflict. The side that is intra-Ukrainian, that is, the Ukrainian opposition wanted to come to power. And she achieved her goal. She came to power. Not exactly those people who thought they would come to power who had great chances. This is Madame Tymoshenko. (credits J. KEDMI - ex. head of the special service "Nativ"). The same goes for the “Right Sector” and the nationalist forces and Yagosh, etc., and the same, their hopes that they will have power until they are realized very much, because they are in power, but they do not rule ". And one of the oligarchs came to power. That is, if the fight against the regime of Yanukovych was under the slogan "Down with corruption!" and "we want to return or enter, for the first time in history Ukraine in a state where it will be a legitimate Republic without being robbed ", while those in power are there who helped her rob all the years. One oligarch was replaced by another oligarch. More decent, less decent ... That is - the opposition to the authorities have come - the problem of corruption in Ukraine where it was, there it remained at best, especially if you take into account that it didn’t exist before, and today oligarchs have divided the regions in Ukraine, so I think it does not bring Ukraine closer to the state a corrupt country. Comrades from Europe and the United x States thought to use this conflict for the change of power, so that the pro-Western and pro-American regime was established, and thus put Ukraine as if in contradiction with Russia. They succeeded. But the price turned out to be the one they did not count on. First, Ukraine I lost the Crimea. And no one expected this, and no one had such a scenario, except Russia. And suddenly, quite unexpectedly, Ukraine remained with the new government, but without the Crimea. And now they faced a problem that they did not think about. And did not count. And how to feed Ukraine? Ukraine is economically incapable. If it does not maintain a normal level of economic relations with Russia. And indeed, now the problem is - how to feed Ukraine and in general, how to contain it? Because there is no money in Ukraine, and where does she get it from? And the most basic problem is the problem with Russia.
Mark Gorin: Gas?
Jacob Kedmi: Russia from the very beginning of the conflict has set the main goal - to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO. If, when I talked about this three months ago, many people looked surprised, then a week before the election, the Russian president voiced it and said that Russia cannot accept Ukraine’s entry into NATO and the deployment of both missile defense systems and attacking missiles. (credits Y. KEDMI is the ex-head of the “Nativ” special services) Moreover, in his speech to the Russian population in an annual interview, he said that when we made a decision on joining the Crimea or reuniting with the Crimea, (the wording does not matter) one of The main problems that confronted us are the problem of NATO and Ukraine. That is, Russia continues to see the problem of NATO as the main problem that it should deal with. During the first two and a half - three months, the most effective and most realistic solution of the issue, from the point of view of Russia, was to send troops. And for this, Russia has concentrated troops in Ukraine.
Mark Gorin: By the way, I wanted to ask about this idea ...
Jacob Kedmi: She concentrated troops on the Ukrainian border. And we can assume that all the operational plans for how to do this were ready. At the same time, Russia has determined that it is not going, and it was clear, to attach some more part of Ukraine to itself. Last month, events have changed a bit, and conditions have been created when Russia can achieve its goal without directly entering its troops into Ukraine. What happened? If at the beginning of the conflict, with the exception of the Crimea, all the other regions of Ukraine - the South-East, were mainly engaged in rhetoric, then suddenly it turned out that they had turned to action. Whether under the influence of the Crimea, or under the influence of events, or counting on and receiving help from Russia, at least moral. They proceeded to action, declaring two independent republics in two areas, and starting to create their armed forces. Probably, plans and intentions were not only in these two regions and eight Southeast. What was called at the time "Novorossiya". But managed only in two. In other regions, Kharkiv and Dnepropetrovsk, local authorities managed to prevent them from turning into the same independent republics as Luhansk and Donetsk. What happened in the last month and a half? (credits Y. KEDMI is the ex-head of the “Nativ” special services) The Ukrainian authorities, the Kiev authorities, decided, contrary to common sense, to use the army to suppress these areas. And suddenly it turned out that "the great all-powerful Ukrainian army" is incapable of suppressing the unrest from their point of view, even in two areas.
Mark Gorin: Militias.
Jacob Kedmi: The army turned out to be weak, part of the army fled, part went over to the side of the rebels, and even the use of the National Guard, which was completely based and based on the people of the nationalist views of the "Right Sector", was not effective enough. Although they showed more cruelty than the army in conflicts with civilians. And then an opportunity arose. And probably this is what these regions and Russia are counting on today. On the basis of the Southeastern regions, create a political unit, which they named, combining it, the Independent Republic of New Russia. That is, it is an economic unit within Ukraine, independent politically and legally capable from a military point of view, will exert pressure on Kiev and the Kiev authorities in order to accept the conditions on the federal structure of Ukraine and on the non-acceptance of Ukraine into some military blocs - blockless status. That is, in practice, today the matter has turned to a civil war, when the regions rebellious against Kiev and the current Kiev authorities with this president, with the past president, with the future president - does not play any role. These all checkered shifts in Kiev are of no interest to anyone, they are interested in their actions. And if their actions are the same as they were, then this will lead to a buildup of civil war. That is, on the one hand, an attempt is being made to create more effective armed forces in the Southeast. These armed forces set themselves the operational task of immediately displacing the Ukrainian army from the territory of two regions. If they succeed, most likely, they will proceed to ensure that in other areas, the Southeast, not the Southeast, the proclamation of republics independent of the Kiev authorities, which will join them, also takes place. That is, a positional civil war begins. Something like what has been going on in Syria for the third year, but a little under different conditions. Under these conditions, the Ukrainian authorities in Kiev are in a difficult situation. If they will increase military pressure, especially with aviation, it is possible that Russia will announce (captions by Y. KEDMI - ex-head of the intelligence agency "Nativ") over these areas, what NATO announced over Libya - "Free Sky".
Mark Gorin: The no-fly zone.
Jacob Kedmi: That is, it will not allow Ukrainian aviation to use bombings and air attacks. It is possible that with the help of Russia, and Russia does not hide that she wants to help, the created armed forces will be more effective than the decaying Ukrainian army. Especially, given the fact that very few people, except for particularly rabid nationalists, will want to die for the current Kiev authorities. If this phenomenon spreads, will not spread - it will weaken Ukraine, that is, to top it that Ukraine is not economically viable today, it will have, the current Kiev authorities, to bear the costs of civil war, and these are big expenses . And she has no money. And someone should finance this war. And those who finance cannot even finance the existence of Ukraine.
Mark Gorin: But there is no money on the other side, they are even smaller.
Jacob Kedmi: There is no money. Second, that is, Russia probably considered, apparently, that this method is more effective than open military intervention. In the end, of course, it looks more decent when Ukrainian citizens themselves try to change their power than a country that intervenes in an open military way from the outside. That is, this is the development of events today. Both NATO and the Americans and Europe stated that they are not going to use their troops beyond the eastern limits, beyond the eastern borders of the NATO countries. So it can not be, and it is unlikely that there will be any military assistance from outside. Maybe some species weapons. The problem is not in flaws.
Mark Gorin: Money.
Jacob Kedmi: The problem with money is worse - there is no money. There is no money in Europe, not in the United States, neither to support Ukraine, nor to finance its civil war. Moreover, the aggravation is under the influence of Americans, not Europeans. The more extremist position, which is now occupied by the Ukrainian authorities, it simply leaves Ukraine without gas. And the lack of gas, lack of fuel, further aggravates the economic situation of Ukraine, and further aggravates relations between Europe, on which Ukraine depends, and Ukraine, because Europe is also afraid to remain without gas because of Ukraine, and rather makes serious differences between Europe. and the United States. It turned out that the position of the United States on Ukraine’s issues is more extremist, more radical than Europe’s. This is probably due to the huge difference between the trade turnover of Europe with Russia, about four hundred million dollars, and the United States - twenty-four million dollars. That is, we are now on the verge of a conflict that can be delayed by almost the same rule that was defined in relation to wars. And what is happening in Ukraine now is not much different from war. Everyone knows how wars begin, but no one knows how they end or how long they last. When the conflict began in Syria, everyone thought that it had long been over. It turns out that this has been going on for three years now and it will end, most likely with the exact opposite, than those who started it planned. The same today in Ukraine. The impoverishment of the Ukrainian population due to economic difficulties and the fact that the hopes that America and the West will help Ukraine turn out to be less and less real. That is, it turned out that the United States is ready to help Ukraine against Russia, but they are not capable of helping Ukraine in the name of Ukraine itself. Europe is even less capable of this. And when it comes to the consciousness of the citizens of Ukraine more and more, the standard of living and the capacity for economic existence become less and less, it will probably lead to changes in Ukraine that will be opposed to the goals that were set. And who will be at the head of Ukraine - does not play any role. As he will be called - does not play any role. Whether he is an oligarch, or not an oligarch, or another oligarch - does not play any role. They can do what they have in their hands, and if they do not go to negotiations with the South-East and begin the process of federalization, then there is an opportunity, according to developments, that Ukraine will come out of the crisis. If everyone digs in their positions, and this will lead to the intensification and aggravation of the civil war, it means that Ukraine will continue to plunge further into the abyss of complete economic degradation and civil war, with all the charms and cruelties that all civil wars always differed. And the history of Ukraine knows what cruelty of civil war is.
Mark Gorin: I remember the first line from the famous novel by Bulgakov "Great and terrible was the year of Christmas from 1918". (Titers - Mark Gorin editor of the newspaper "Sputnik") It seems that 2014, and in fact, the eighteenth was a continuation of the thirteenth and fourteenth, eighteenth, he did not fall from the sky. It is no less terrible, although it is probably less great, as was said on another occasion: “history repeats itself twice, the first time as a tragedy, the second time as a farce” - but this is a bloody farce.
Jacob Kedmi: We will hope. that Ukraine is 2014, it is not Sarajevo 1904
Mark Gorin: Donetsk is the city of my youth. There were my friends there, I regularly communicate with them. Two months ago, in an atmosphere of complete confusion, none of them was going to, especially did not run to repatriate. They lived as if they were laughing at the hope that everything would be fine. It seems that it will not do, and today the interest in repatriating them is different. Just a month has passed ...
Jacob Kedmi: Your friends have where to go. Or to Israel, or to Germany. Anywhere.
Mark Gorin: Yes! Yes.
Jacob Kedmi: But what to do ...
Mark Gorin: Those who have nowhere to go.
Jacob Kedmi: And this is the main population of Ukraine. Here is their tragedy. Much heavier, much more scary.
Mark Gorin: Much more difficult - yes. Than our fellow tribesmen, with all my sympathy, and personal anxiety for their destinies, everything else is even harder.
Thank you, Yasha. Thanks to everyone who was with us on these minutes on the channel ITON-TV
http://www.iton-tv.com/art/3992/Yakov-Kedmi-ob-Ukraine-Federalizacziya-ili-grazhdanskaya-vojna-Tekst/
- Jacob Kedmi about Ukraine
- http://www.iton-tv.com/art/3992/Yakov-Kedmi-ob-Ukraine-Federalizacziya-ili-grazhdanskaya-vojna-Tekst/
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