Military Review

Beijing, Kunming, Urumqi and Guangzhou: The Changing Landscape of Anti-Chinese Jihadists

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Beijing, Kunming, Urumqi and Guangzhou: The Changing Landscape of Anti-Chinese Jihadists



For about six months since China underwent the first car explosion in its stories, which occurred on Tiananmen Square in Beijing 31 October 2013, China recorded a number of other terrorist attacks on its territory. Such attacks included: a massacre using knives that occurred at the station in Kunming, which resulted in the death of a 29 man, a double act of terrorism at the station in the Uygur capital of the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region of Urumqi, and the massacre using knives at the station in Guangzhou, as a result which wounded six people. The car bombings in Urumqi on May 22 clarified and indicates that the recent attacks in China are part of a coordinated militant campaign against China that was probably organized outside of China and used jihadist tactics that were used in neighboring Afghanistan and Pakistan.

According to one parallel between these recent incidents, they were executed by the Uighurs, who are members of the Muslim ethnic group Xinjiang. Xi Jinping and his counter-terrorism strategy face the challenge of identifying foreign and domestic forces behind these attacks - and some 15 other massive attacks using knives and automobile incidents in Xinjiang from the year 2011 - and developing a development program to counter this kind of violence . The internal network of such belligerent cells, in all likelihood, is already in place and is supposedly increasing, which, for its part, will provide more opportunities for the militants of the Islamic Party of Turkestan (IPT) and its ally Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) to expand its jihad across the border from Afghanistan and Pakistan to China.

This material analyzes the political nature of the recent terrorist attacks in China, with a focus on operational links between the attackers and international jihadist groups such as IPT and the IMU.

International connections

Role of the IPT representative

According to rough estimates, IPT has from 300 to 500 fighters in Afghanistan and Pakistan, but also has its networks in Turkey and, possibly, in Central Asia. With such a number of fighters, IPT is limited in its ability to start a rebellion in China, in which more than one billion people live. The hitting of a car during the celebration of Ramadan, which took place in Kashgar in July 2011, resulting in the death of pedestrians 12, was the only IPT attack that occurred in China, as indicated by the evidence. IPT also took responsibility for several car bombings near Xinjiang’s border with Pakistan in 2012, which were likely carried out by militants of the organization in Xinjiang.

The main additional characteristic that adds to the seriousness of IPT in Xinjiang is that the organization teaches Uygurs who travel abroad or, in all likelihood, and even more important, leads the secret distribution of ideological and training jihadist materials in Xinjiang through various Uyghur, Pakistani or Central Asian traders.

On the international front, the IPT has become an influential patron and “representative” of the Uyghur militants in China and delivers laudable speeches in almost all cases of clashes between Uygurs and Chinese police or Hans. IPT leader Abdullah Mansour is considered a relative newcomer among the more experienced international jihadists, but he was able to raise the prestige of the IPT among al-Qaeda and other jihadist groups. From 2008 to 2013 Mansur was the editor of IPT publications in the Islamic Turkestan magazine, which is published about quarterly, where Uigurs are exposed to China, and Xinjiang is compared to other regions of the world where jihadists fight, such as Palestine, Kashmir and later Syria. Mansur’s becoming the leader of IPT, which happened last year, was most likely due to his knowledge of the media and marketing skills, which are reflected in the continuation of the complex activities of IPT in jihadist forums.

Al-Qaeda leaders like Ayman al-Zawahiri now usually refer to East Turkestan among other jihad battlefields, while jihadists in Syria proudly show the Uigurs and the Han people who came to Islam and are now among their fighters. Meanwhile, the IPT praises “jihadists” in Syria and responds directly to Chinese accusations that the IPT sends fighters to Syria with the help of Uighur human rights organizations in Turkey. For example, in the 12 edition of Islamic Turkestan, the IPT writes: “If China has the right to support Bashar al-Assad in Syria, then we have every right to support our proud Syrian Muslims.”

IMU: “Follow the mentor, in the person of Pakistan”

While the IPT is still a relative newcomer to the jihad scene, announcing its formation around 2008, despite the presence of Uighur warriors in Afghanistan before 2001, the organization benefited from the support of other well-known jihadi leaders. In particular, the emergence of the Mufti of the IMU, Abu Zara Al-Burmi, as a prominent anti-Chinese jihadist leader in Pakistan, has caused a greater attention to Xinjiang from jihadists. Al-Burmi began to gain fame and was able to draw the attention of jihadist media after 2011, a few years after the riots in Xinjiang that occurred in July 2009, in Urumqi. The Uigurs call Xinjiang "Eastern Turkestan" and want its independence from China. While Al-Qaida affiliates and leaders such as Abu Yayya Al-Libi demanded revenge on China and called for attacks on Chinese citizens abroad, other Al Qaeda leaders made rare statements on Xinjiang.

However, unlike other Al-Qaida leaders, Al-Burmi regularly publishes anti-Chinese sermons in Pakistan and, possibly because of his Burmese origin (he is an Rohini ethnic), seems to hold a personal vendetta against China. In a sermon called “The Lost Country,” he said that “the Mujahideen should know that the Ummah’s incoming enemy is China, which day after day develops its weaponto fight the Muslims ”and accused“ Burma, China and Germany and the interests of the United Nations in supporting this massacre and massacres of [Rohini] in Arakan ”.

In September, 2013, in a sermon that sounded in Ladha, South Vasaristan, Al-Burmi, said that Muslims must kidnap and kill Chinese, as well as attack Chinese companies that, according to Abu Zar, "conquered" Pakistan like a British company the conquest of East India (including his native Burma Abu Zher) in India in the 1800-s. He blamed the Pakistanis for their “prayer for friendship between China and Pakistan,” including the purchase of “wrong” food and goods from China, comparing all this with words, it’s like “drinking milk from the Chinese government” and selling the port of Gwadar to China in Karachi.

Al-Burmi convinces his followers to pay special attention to the “new superpower” and “the next enemy number one” to China, now that the Taliban “could discourage” the United States. This suggests that Al-Burmi is considering the role of the IMU in attacking China or coordinating IPT training with the aim of attacking China after the withdrawal of most US forces from Afghanistan in 2014. In his sermon in Ladha, Al-Burmi continued to compare the United States and China: “We should be aware of the fact that, while the United States is the father of the Pakistani system and the government, China is the mother of the Pakistani government. The Pakistani government is drinking the milk of the Chinese government. ”

He also claims that “the Pakistani president visits China every four months, walked and bowed on his knees and fell in front of those atheists who do not believe in God, and in return he returns with the help received. We should all be aware of the fact that there is no border between Pakistan and China, the border that runs along Gilgit-Baltistan is the actual border with East Turkestan. ”

Rear: politicizing attacks

While IPT and the IMU may be active in promoting jihad from abroad, a key measure of their influence or other jihadist groups that operate in China is the political nature and style of the attacks taking place in China. The section below contains an overview of the most recent terrorist attacks prior to the explosion of the car, which occurred on 22 in May (many details remained unclear at the time of the publication of this article).

Urumqi

The double terrorist attack at the railway station in Urumqi occurred on the last day of President Xi’s three-day visit to Xinjiang, where his attention was paid to countering terrorism. However, the attack also occurred on the eve of the opening of intercity railway lines connecting Urumqi with Kuytun, Shikhezi and Karamaei, which will be the key routes for the delivery of oil from Xinjiang to other regions of China. The attackers did not “succeed in their cause”, as a result of which they killed only one person other than themselves, but the attention of the media, which was attached to terrorist attacks, overshadowed X's visit and became a message that Uighur insurgents could attack anywhere and at any time .

In addition, these terrorist attacks, which were the first attacks of their kind in China, demonstrated innovation in Uighur militancy. While it was not possible to prove any connection with the IPT, China claims that leaders trained in Pakistan most likely indicate a suspected connection with the IPT. The attacks were also similar to the terrorist attacks that the IPT and the IMU use against the forces of the United States, Pakistan and NATO in Afghanistan and Pakistan. The execution of two Han policemen and the stabbing of a third policeman in Yecheng (Kargılik), 31, which is the closest city of Xinjiang to Pakistan, suggests that, in all likelihood, the militants tried to launch more attacks during Xi’s visit.

In one of the most famous parts of the Damla video, you can see how militants in a mountainous region, reminiscent of the border region of Afghanistan and Pakistan, are taught to make a bomb hidden in a briefcase. IPT has published a series of 13 videos in Uyghur with Chinese and Uygur captions that teach viewers how to make homemade explosives. If IPT can encourage and train homegrown single wolves or independent cells that operate in Xinjiang to attack, distributing similar video materials in Xinjiang, it will allow IPT to encourage attacks, avoiding the risk associated with sending their fighters to Xinjiang.

Tiananmen

A man who rammed a car in which his wife and mother were in the passenger seats, the most symbolic place in China, located near the portrait of Mao Zedong in Tiananmen Square, participated in the blast of an automobile in Tiananmen Square in October 2013. The reason for the man was probably the revenge for the demolition by the Chinese government without the official permission of the additional part of the mosque, for which he paid to be erected in the Kyzylsu autonomous prefecture of Kyrgyzstan, located in Xinjiang. The attack in Urumqi and Tiananmen played good propaganda for IPT. Islom Avazi published a video on jihadist websites in which IPT leader Abdullah Mansour praises the “Jihadist operation in the Forbidden City” and claims that this was the result of “awakening after 60 years of oppression”.

Kunming and Guangzhou

The attacks at Kunming and Guangzhou stations that occurred in March and May 2014 differed from the attacks that occurred at Urumqi station and Tiananmen Square, since neither the timing of the attack nor the location were particularly symbolic. However, both attacks undoubtedly caused the death of people, because they occurred in busy public places. The participation of two women in the attack in Kunming, as well as the selection of the station, may have been made at the suggestion of the militants of the Caucasus Emirate, the organization of the late leader Doku Umarov, which was praised by May 1 in the IPT video. Vilayat Dagestan, which took responsibility for the attacks on the station in Volgograd and the trolley bus explosion in Pyatigorsk near Sochi on the eve of the Olympic Games in Russia in February 2014, said that these attacks were carried out "by order of Umarov."

Conclusion

The recent attacks in Beijing, Kunming, Urumqi and Guangzhou are a victory for IPT and its ally, the IMU. The attacks promote IPT and the IMU to make China the next frontier for jihadists, because the US is leaving Afghanistan. Meanwhile, from Syria and Turkey to the Gulf, there is an increased opportunity for IPT and its supporters to create a network with Uighurs in Xinjiang who are offended by the Chinese government. For example, it is likely that the IMU and the IPT may unite and recruit people from underground Islamist organizations that operate in Xinjiang, such as Tablighi Jamaat and Hijra Jihad, inspired by the Salafi ideals.

In addition, it is likely that Uygur militancy will resemble Al-Qaida’s militant actions in other countries of the world, since knowledge transfer takes place with the training of people in Afghanistan and Pakistan or Syria, on simple jihadist online sites or videos. IPT can also follow the strategy of the Caucasus Emirate towards ethnic Russians, attacking the Han Chinese in Xinjiang with such a frequency that it will force them to leave the region and become a derivative of strong hostility between the Han Chinese and the Uighurs, that the Han Chinese will not want to live, work and feel safe in Xinjiang.
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48 comments
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  1. Tolerast
    Tolerast 29 May 2014 18: 54
    +5
    It is clear whose ears stick out here. Now China has substantively taken up. Where have they just not fooled?
    1. mad
      mad 29 May 2014 19: 03
      +8
      Quote: Tolerast
      Where have they just not fooled?

      The difficult question is, their Voyager has already flown outside the Solar System. So to speak, I carried democratic values ​​in the galaxy wink
      1. armageddon
        armageddon 29 May 2014 19: 07
        +4
        Hmm ... Freaks EVERYWHERE enough ... One pleases the CHINESE short conversation !!!
        1. philip
          philip 29 May 2014 23: 12
          +1
          THAT IS IT, that long. 369 latest Chinese warning. That is why This 4000 years exists.
      2. The comment was deleted.
      3. Stalevar
        Stalevar 29 May 2014 19: 14
        +3
        Outside the solar system there is no sixth US fleet)))
        1. Ingvar 72
          Ingvar 72 29 May 2014 19: 28
          +3
          Quote: Stalevar
          Outside the solar system there is no sixth US fleet)))

          Of course have! Didn’t you watch the star wars !? wassat
      4. Tolerast
        Tolerast 29 May 2014 19: 16
        0
        Gee. lol He laughed. So the next step is the contact of extraterrestrial intelligence with democratic values. Sympathize with the aliens in advance crying Catch a liberal plus.
    2. Stalevar
      Stalevar 29 May 2014 19: 12
      +2
      Well, with China it will be hard for them. The laws are tougher there, the death penalty has not been abolished, and there will be no looking back at the Geysoyuz.
    3. Gluxar_
      Gluxar_ 30 May 2014 10: 41
      0
      Quote: Tolerast
      It is clear whose ears stick out here. Now China has substantively taken up. Where have they just not fooled?

      They took up China in 1840 from the First Opium War. The fact that terrorist cells prepared in advance are being activated is, of course, a fact.
      Why is this happening ? Perhaps the United States made sure that China would go its own way, perhaps before that they did not want to show their true position to China, trying to push Russia ... in any case, today the USA no longer has the resources to play long, because they will implement all available projects on destabilizing your competitors ...
      Is China's terror a threat to China? Definitely. How will these processes be affected by the influx of international terror a la Al Qaeda? Personally, it seems to me it will not greatly affect, for China, the main thing is not to let the internal stratification of society swing.
  2. INFOLegioner
    INFOLegioner 29 May 2014 18: 58
    0
    Well, China has its own Caucasus and the Baltic states. You look and your own Ukraine is not far off. Glory to Obama, glory to the heroes (Uyghurs) soldier
  3. nikcris
    nikcris 29 May 2014 19: 03
    +1
    Well, get fucked - don't get up. I remember from a friend of the early 90s a friend told me: the policemen soaked everyone in the district with wooden sticks for a statement from ours for robbery.
  4. buzer
    buzer 29 May 2014 19: 10
    0
    China is not as strong as it is painted ... And the pressure on it is just beginning
    1. Tolerast
      Tolerast 29 May 2014 19: 39
      0
      Why did you get a minus? I don’t understand. We’ll fix it right now. Need to discuss, not minus drinks
      China is very vulnerable against the United States and its allies in terms of open confrontation. This is true. But he will deal with this jihadist scumbag without difficulty.
      1. Patriot.ru.
        Patriot.ru. 29 May 2014 22: 34
        +1
        China has nuclear weapons, not to mention the economy.
        1. Tolerast
          Tolerast 29 May 2014 23: 32
          0
          Look at the map of China, its soft underbelly, its dependence on trade routes in the southern seas, and on exports to the West and the USA. As long as the Chinese Navy is not equal in power to the mattresses, until a powerful domestic market appears, China will always feel its vulnerability. They have a quarter of the population living on the brink of hunger. China, unlike Russia, can indeed be quite effectively isolated. Then there will be a collapse of the economy and, we can’t even imagine what horrors. The PRC leadership understands all this very well. Why do you think such a gigantic strong country behaves so timidly in the current Game of the Great Powers, constantly smooths corners, avoids decisive steps?
          But nuclear weapons and nuclear weapons, so that they would be scared, but not used. Nem suicides.
          1. I think so
            I think so 30 May 2014 02: 44
            0
            About "China's soft underbelly" after the appearance of anti-ship ballistic missiles in the arsenal of the Chinese army, American aircraft carriers do not appear there closer than 2000 km. and you say "underbelly".
            About "unlike Russia, you can isolate." How do you do it? If China has more outlets to the sea and they are better than Russia and land borders in bulk?
            As for "why such a gigantic strong country behaves so timidly in the current" the answer is SIMPLE to the point of disgrace - because the Chinese are a smart people and know the value of wars and what they already have is enough for them. Their mentality is aimed not at capturing the external world, but at improving their internal ... it is necessary to understand the Chinese their civilization THE MOST ANCIENT on the planet ... all the others have sunk into oblivion, and they live for themselves ... and it is thanks to "so timidly leads yourself. " So their civilization, I think, will survive all the existing ones, such as the USA, Geyropa, Russia, etc. We are, in comparison with them, INSANE BABIES who think that we are something significant and are engaged in insignificant nonsense ...
            And the last nuclear weapons - the GUARANTEE that "democracy" will not come to you in the form of bombs, and if you have the brains to live well, then you will live well.
            1. Tolerast
              Tolerast 30 May 2014 10: 32
              0
              And how, dear Mr. Minuser, will the Chinese get this Dongfeng along the MOVING ship? So far, all this is from the realm of fairy tales. Now, in the event of an open conflict (and its probability is approximately 0), the US Navy and US Air Force (from Guam and bases in Nippon) will sink the entire Chinese miracle fleet in a matter of hours. Then, the Celestial God like a turtle will be finished. And amers have enough brains not to get into a mess on land. There is a wealth of shameful experience.
              About the mentality of the Chinese, I agree.
      2. philip
        philip 29 May 2014 23: 21
        0
        Plus, the military alliance with RUSSIA that has not yet taken place.
        KIRDYK AMERICA
        Obama is our special agent.
  5. Humpty
    Humpty 29 May 2014 19: 11
    +2
    There will be no gain for jihadists in China. The Chinese will not leave Xinjiang anywhere.
    The author barely knows what and when they blew up the first or not the first time.
    In the photo to the article are not Uyghurs. Similar to the Kazakhs, but maybe someone else, the quality of the image does not allow us to say for sure. The photo was taken probably in the north-west of Xinjiang.
  6. Barakuda
    Barakuda 29 May 2014 19: 12
    0
    Let them settle themselves. There are enough problems of their own ... Yes, and with what help?
  7. Barakuda
    Barakuda 29 May 2014 19: 15
    +2
    Quote: mad
    Quote: Tolerast
    Where have they just not fooled?

    The difficult question is, their Voyager has already flown outside the Solar System. So to speak, I carried democratic values ​​in the galaxy wink

    He took off only according to the Americans, we are not tracking. "Was there a boy"?
  8. INFOLegioner
    INFOLegioner 29 May 2014 19: 17
    +1
    Quote: Barracuda
    Let them settle themselves. There are enough problems of their own ... Yes, and with what help?

    help should be with the most valuable substance - namely: information and experience hi
    1. Barakuda
      Barakuda 29 May 2014 19: 20
      +2
      I agree . And who helped Russia ...? In addition to dirty tricks on all sides, until she scrambled out.
      1. I think so
        I think so 30 May 2014 02: 49
        0
        The main dirty tricks Russia ALWAYS received from inside herself ... Remember 1917, 1991. And it was after these internal dirty tricks that the external ones started. Everyone wants to try to crush the weakened ...
  9. delfinN
    delfinN 29 May 2014 19: 37
    0
    While China is our ally, even a veto at the UN, but help is needed.
    1. Revolver
      Revolver 30 May 2014 07: 15
      0
      And after that there was Damansky. Eternal memory to those who lay down there, reflecting the attacks of the Maoists.
  10. upasika1918
    upasika1918 29 May 2014 19: 41
    +5
    And who now remembers whom China helped during our Afghan war? I remember. They supported the Mujahideen both morally and financially. Openly supplied weapons. And I think China has not yet chosen its portion of karmic punishment.
    1. Barakuda
      Barakuda 29 May 2014 19: 59
      0
      Already chosen, just the beginning. Universal law has not yet been repealed. Russia suffered as much as other nations rescued from misfortunes. Now only up! and go!
      Some people understand this, and piss.
    2. Tolerast
      Tolerast 29 May 2014 20: 00
      +1
      I agree, but then there were completely different political realities. Since the Khrushchev era, the leaders of the PRC openly hated their "older Soviet brother." And now they have about the same situevina with amers. And we need to use this wisely. Of course, without losing his head and ranting about the return of the "great friendship". China is very cunning devils.
    3. str73
      str73 29 May 2014 21: 01
      0
      That is the fault of Khrushchev! It was he who, to the delight of the Amers, quarreled with China, because together with China and then we would be invincible.
  11. Barakuda
    Barakuda 29 May 2014 19: 51
    +2
    Why doesn’t anyone touch Turkey? and Pakistan ..
    Terrorist radicals sit and sit in different stripes. and everyone knows about it.
    About Saudi Arabia and Qatar - the main donors, I am silent.
  12. Giant thought
    Giant thought 29 May 2014 20: 17
    0
    International terrorism attacks China. The Chinese need to burn terrorists out of their land with fire if they want to live in peace.
    1. tokin1959
      tokin1959 29 May 2014 21: 28
      +1
      Actually, East Turkestan is a territory occupied by the Chinese.
      1. liberal
        liberal 30 May 2014 00: 08
        0
        this cannot be, because the Chinese are the most peaceful and kind people on earth (after the Russians, of course), they did not occupy anyone, they always lived on this territory, and the Uyghurs and other Tibetans launched special services of the damned America to them to conduct subversive activities against the penultimate stronghold of good and justice on the ground.
  13. sv68
    sv68 29 May 2014 20: 54
    0
    the Chinese need to emigrate wassat the whole country to america laughing and the Sino-American People's Republic will be named tongue
    1. tokin1959
      tokin1959 29 May 2014 21: 29
      0
      The Chinese have proposed a solution to ending the Arab-Israeli conflict.
      - shoot everyone, and populate the territory with the Chinese.
  14. Alex_Popovson
    Alex_Popovson 29 May 2014 21: 21
    -2
    All my conscious life I have been against religious wars. But the war with the pagans is not only a matter of Mohammedans, but also of Christians and Jews. So, not supporting the Uighurs in the desire to create their own khanate would be blasphemous
  15. liberal
    liberal 30 May 2014 00: 16
    0
    article was translated by some robot
  16. Landwarrior
    Landwarrior 30 May 2014 00: 19
    +1
    Messrs. Kitaphobes! This article is just about your topic that China is going to "run in and out" on Russia. Well, look for yourself, they have a lot of problems inside their own state. So take it easy hi
    1. Tolerast
      Tolerast 30 May 2014 00: 49
      0
      China will not do with Russia what you wrote not because of the Uighurs with the Tibetans. It just doesn’t need him. And the Chinese never make stupid senseless steps. The problems there are the sea and in the next two decades their Communist Party will have to make a lot of difficult and unpopular decisions. They will not be there before us at all.
      And "enemies" are necessary in order not to relax. Even fictional. The main thing is without frenzydrinks
      1. Landwarrior
        Landwarrior 30 May 2014 01: 23
        +2
        Tolerast, I did not say what exactly because of this. The internal conflict between "Han" and "non-Han" is one of the many building blocks of "why not", so to speak hi
        1. tasha
          tasha 30 May 2014 04: 59
          0
          The stories of this particular internal conflict have been going on for decades (actually, even more). And the USSR managed to be noted there, both in 1945, and after the breakdown of relations with the PRC.
          The analogy of the XUAR with the well-known events in the Caucasus is not entirely appropriate, I think so. Terrorism and separatism, of course, are, but such, almost kitchen by Chinese standards. Pay attention to the general balance of power plus the determination of the leadership of the PRC plus general support for the population. This will become a serious problem in the case of the massive spread of radical Islamic movements among Uighurs and access to WMD. However, affordable WMD will be a problem for everyone.
    2. tasha
      tasha 30 May 2014 04: 49
      +1
      Not an argument. There are many cases in history when, in order to solve internal problems, the rulers of the state decided on a "small victorious war." Well, or not small.
      1. Landwarrior
        Landwarrior 30 May 2014 10: 28
        0
        So I wrote above to another interlocutor, this is not the main one, but one of many "why not." The problem must always be considered as a whole. hi
      2. The comment was deleted.
      3. Tolerast
        Tolerast 30 May 2014 10: 48
        +1
        And how will this war help them in terms of, for example, that by 2035 they will have 600-700 million pensioners who are not producing anything, which someone else must also feed. Moreover, the percentage of the working population will rapidly decline? And what happens if their economy stops growing? And this will happen one day. And what's going on with the environment? Yes, just quiet horror. Only these few problems for the Chinese are much more important than any mythical expansion.
        1. Alex_Popovson
          Alex_Popovson 30 May 2014 12: 20
          +1
          Tochnik, about the ecology of horror as correctly noted
          And about the decrease in the working population. Here, in general, as far as I see, fun. Law-abiding - the cult of the birth of boys. In villages and simply remote areas, the sea of ​​illegally born children. If there are losses in the population, then this population must be taken from somewhere. But is it not the legalization of peasant illegal children? Oh, fun shorter.
          By the way, here I talked with an uncle who is studying the behavior of strains of microorganisms in societies and territories. Well, if in general and briefly, it is quite probable that specific epidemics will outbreak, and then pandemics, against the background of the adaptation of microorganisms and viruses. There are more people -> the microorganism has more difficulties in adapting -> then there are two options: the same pandemic against the background of an unkillable infection, or a nation capable of withstanding any infection. But no one has perfect immunity, so it remains to observe, assume the first option and, for every fireman, prepare a protective suit.
          1. Tolerast
            Tolerast 30 May 2014 14: 05
            +2
            We are all waiting for the lid to come to the amers and we don’t see the obvious: in comparison with the PRC, mattress covers simply have no problems. Think external debt 17 trillion? They will print more pieces of paper. The whole world sits on dollars. Nothing will happen to him, darling. But if China comes kirdyk and it falls apart, then I don’t even know what to do. It will be such a hotbed of instability - just put out the light. The rich Hong Kong and Shanghai will say: why do we need to feed hundreds of millions of people in the West, we better join Taiwan. The population of the northern provinces will rush to us in the Far East, so as not to starve to death ... Oh .. It's better not to think about this. God forbid, smart people from the Communist Party will somehow settle ....
            1. Alex_Popovson
              Alex_Popovson 30 May 2014 15: 33
              +1
              It is unlikely that they will ruin so that Russia will suffer. Well, more precisely, this is my dream.
              But if China comes kirdyk and it fall apart

              Why does China fall apart, except for Uyghurstan? Moreover, despite all my benevolence towards Mohammedan Uyghurs, China will not allow it, it will drown everything in the blood of the righteous.
              But even if-suddenly-completely-unexpectedly-suddenly, with the help of the international, the Uigurs will be able to beat off some territory (then yes, Russia will need to have steel eggs, for it is wonderful when the Mujahideen are somewhere there, but not here at all), the integrity of China as nothing threatens such, on the contrary, the Communist Party may launch an offensive in neighboring territories in order to justify itself before the population, and it will achieve an increase in territories. Yes, instability, but not entirely arch-critical.
              Yes, and I think, in the event of a collapse, the Chinese people will be quickly embraced by their Japanese neighbors and others like that for "humanitarian purposes"
              1. Tolerast
                Tolerast 30 May 2014 18: 22
                0
                This is not about the Uighurs at all. China will chew them and will not notice. The point is the danger of social volition, which will certainly begin if the growth of the Chinese economy suddenly stops. The peasants who still live very poorly and dream of moving to large cities will rise. The Party Central Committee understands this and is very afraid. And there is also a reverse belt. The Maidan "freedom-loving" type. Remember Tiananmen. After all, then China openly "rebounded". Nobody wanted to disperse the enraged students until the very last moment. And they had already dispersed with might and main and burned the KPA armored vehicles in the streets. Why not repeat it?
                In such a gloomy scenario, the fall of the Communist Party, China will certainly split. The fact is that the Han Khan is different. The provinces of China are very different in mass factors. I used to think that they are all mono-ethnic and love each other. Even Taiwan. After all, there are also Han Chinese. And they are afraid of China, they ask the United States to protect them, if all of a sudden. And doing business with the continent is the only way. And fear does not bother them here. But that was a mistaken opinion.
                PS A street vendor from Guangzhou, a hard worker from Harbin, a Europeanized businessman from Hong Kong, a nomenclature worker from the Capital District, a half-starved peasant from Sichuan are naturally different peoples. Or even different planets with little understanding of each other. All of them together are held only by the steel fist of the Communist Party. If she gives weakness, the world will see China's weakness. But I think she will not give slack. It was not for nothing that they recently at the plenum examined the collapse of the USSR in such detail. They feel unkind, despite the absence of national republics in their composition.
                1. Alex_Popovson
                  Alex_Popovson 31 May 2014 07: 48
                  +1
                  Well, of course, a halt to the growth of the economy - everything will be Khan for China. But the recent signing of an agreement on Russia's resource vassality, by itself, is already protecting the Chinese government and economy. And given the Chayniz mentality, the government may well stop clan feuds and corruption within the apparatus and engage in easy genocide, in the spirit of Mao or Pol Pot.
                  All of them together are held only by the steel fist of the Communist Party. If she gives weakness, the world will see China's weakness. But I think she will not give slack.

                  This is not true.
                  They feel unkind, despite the absence of national republics in their composition.

                  I think they feel that the evil will come from abroad. They solve internal problems this way, otherwise we would have much more often heard about the attacks in Uygurstan. Yes, and if there were unrest, China is unlikely to look back at the world community, as usual, they will transmit everything and everything in tanks, and the unrest inside China will end there.
                  1. Tolerast
                    Tolerast 31 May 2014 18: 47
                    +1
                    All right laid out drinks
                    1. Alex_Popovson
                      Alex_Popovson 31 May 2014 21: 23
                      0
                      I am very glad that at least someone hears me here.
                      But, I note, you just peerlessly notice the situation drinks
              2. Tolerast
                Tolerast 30 May 2014 19: 55
                +1
                They are sure to swim. Even without the collapse of the country. The fall of the Communist Party = corrupt weak fragmented China under external control. A sample of the 20-30s of the last century. Without a strong hand they cannot.
  17. Aldo
    Aldo 30 May 2014 06: 34
    +2
    Uyghurs can also be understood, they are not only oppressed, they are pressed hard and are trying to assimilate. As long as there is such tension there will be support for IPT among the population.