Military Review

Moldova will share the fate of Ukraine? ..

32



All the new countries of Eastern Europe are gradually being drawn into the big game between the USA and Russia. Back in November, the crisis concerned only Ukraine, but already now Belarus, Poland, Romania, and the Baltic countries clearly expressed their attitude to what is happening. The queue has reached Moldova, for which Ukraine is the closest neighbor and an important partner. Chisinau faces an important choice: to follow in the footsteps of the Kiev government, which betrayed its people, or to abandon the movement along the western vector in favor of friendship with Russia. As in Ukraine, the inhabitants of the republic were divided on this issue.

Is it worth it for the sake of friendship with the EU to divide the country?

Contrary to the myths, in Moldova they are friendly to Russian culture and in general to all Russian. The nationalists ’sabbath in the 90s was suppressed: the radicals who carried out the war in Transnistria were ceded to the Communists, who ruled the republic for almost 10 years. In 2009, power was overthrown, and the Communist Party replaced the so-called Alliance for European Integration - a chimeric alliance of democratic, liberal, and liberal-democratic parties. But the members of the Alliance are constantly at enmity with the opposition, then with each other, and therefore Moldova moves towards Europe with the speed of continental drift - that is, at this rate of rapprochement with Brussels, Chisinau will never even become a partner of the European Union, not to mention full membership in this organizations.

Moldova has difficulties and with the preservation of territorial integrity. The republican authorities do not fully control the left bank of the Dniester, with the exception of a few villages in the Dubossary district, and the city of Bendery on the right bank. In the south of the country is located the autonomous Gagauzia, which has the right to proclaim independence in case Moldova loses its sovereignty. Integration into the EU just provides for a partial transfer of national sovereignty to the allied bodies - which means that if Chisinau gets too close to Brussels, little Gagauzia will be able to turn into an independent state.

By the way, 2 in February of this year in Gagauzia a referendum was held on the attitude of the residents of the autonomy to the European and Customs unions. The overwhelming majority of respondents - 98% - spoke in favor of the latter.

The alignment of forces in Moldova

In other parts of Moldova, directly managed from Chisinau, the situation is the same. 200 thousands of Moldovans make a living in Russia, and are not going to give up the Russian labor market that is so attractive to them. Each of them feeds a family of 4-5 people, so we can assume that, at a minimum, 1 has a million Moldovan citizens who fully support Russia. Add to this the 280 of thousands of Ukrainians, the 200 of thousands of Russians, the 160 of thousands of Gagauz - and the picture will be overwhelming: almost half of the population of the republic strongly opposes the country's integration into the European Union!

Of course, these figures are excluding Transnistria, which made its choice back in 1992 year.

However, the majority of Moldovans still relate to their future with indifference: the endless bickering between members of the Alliance for European Integration has scared many citizens of politics, who believe that nothing can be changed by voting. The case with the referendum on constitutional amendments organized in 2010 was indicative: only 29% of voters took part in it, so the vote had to be declared invalid. This indicates a deep apathy in public life, a disappointment with the current political elite.

As for supporters of European integration, they are in a clear minority. Rallies in support of the European Union are usually held with the participation of Romanian students who are brought to Chisinau and Balti for extras. The government also attracts administrative resources, forcing teachers, doctors and other “state employees” to hold a rally in danger of dismissal in support of the government and the European Union.

Moldavian antimaydan

Despite the negative trends in politics, in recent years, civil activity of the population in the republic has been growing. Resistance to the European integration course of the government became especially noticeable after November last year, when another Maidan gathered in neighboring Ukraine. The opinion of the European Union in Moldova changed for the worse as the mood of the Ukrainian protesters became more radical. When the Molotov cocktails flew into the Berkut, the Moldovans realized the perniciousness and futility of the foreign policy pursued by the ruling Alliance for European Integration.

A particularly strong opposition to the Alliance was in Gagauzia, which has close economic ties with Russia and supports the Communist Party. 2 in February in the autonomy even held a referendum on the issue of international self-determination of Gagauzia, where the absolute majority of the inhabitants of the autonomy called for the strengthening of trade and economic ties with Russia and the Customs Union.

In Chisinau, meanwhile, in the fall, rallies are held demanding an end to rapprochement with the European Union. The demonstrators are initiated by the opposition Communist Party of the Republic of Moldova, headed by former President Vladimir Voronin. Unlike pro-government rallies, the Communists do not use administrative methods to gather people, do not bribe and blackmail their voters, but their rallies always attract tens of thousands of people who are not indifferent to the future of their homeland.

Fears of liberals

The Alliance is afraid of growing protest sentiments, and in every way hinders opposition activities. Last year, an agreement was concluded between Moldova and Romania, according to which the police forces of the western neighbor can operate freely on Moldovan territory at the invitation of Chisinau. This means that the country's government is seriously considering the threat of a popular uprising, and is preparing to put down any riots in advance.

Romanian special forces can also be used to fight Transnistria: formally, its territory belongs to Moldova, although it is not controlled by it. If we interpret the contract from the point of view of Chisinau, reinforcements from Romania have the right to act in Transnistrian cities.

Also, the support of Bucharest is needed by the Moldovan government to suppress secessionist sentiments in the south of the republic - in Gagauzia. The February referendum and the statements of the Gagauz political leaders showed that in autonomy they are ready for any variant of the development of events. In Comrat, the capital of Gagauzia, they seriously say that it is necessary to form the people's militia, because all the power structures in the autonomy are subject to Chisinau.

So, June 27 is expected to sign an association agreement with the European Union by the Moldovan government. Obviously, this event will lead to a serious destabilization in Moldova, and will have far-reaching consequences, including the overthrow of the Alliance or the secession of some regions of the republic.

Moldova will make a choice in the fall

By the way, the words about the overthrow of the Alliance - not a dummy. In the fall of this year, the residents of Moldova will have a unique chance to throw the liberals and democrats out of parliament without the use of force. On November 30, parliamentary elections will be held in the country, in which, apart from the Alliance parties, the Communists will take part - the only opposition force that can really resist European integrators and unionists. The Communist Party will get a sufficient number of votes and will get the majority of mandates if it is supported by the Russian, Ukrainian, Bulgarian and Gagauz communities, as well as by those Moldovans who pin hopes for the future only with Russia.

Having strengthened themselves in the parliament, the communists can launch an offensive against the president: according to the law, he is chosen not by the people, but by the deputies.

At the same time, the citizens of Moldova are unlikely to regret the deputies of the alliance: they, in fact, were appointees of Romania and the European Union, since almost all of them have Romanian citizenship. No country in the world allows foreigners to rule it, and only Moldova after the 2009 coup of the year was an exception.

Thus, between June and November in Chisinau there will be a not weak struggle between the ruling Alliance and the opposition represented by the Communist Party. Of course, Vladimir Voronin will take advantage of the signing of an agreement between Moldova and the European Union in order to increase the pressure on the Liberal Democrats during the election campaign. Having enlisted the support of voters who are ready, among other things, to take to the streets of cities, in case of successful development of events, the Communist Party will be able to take revenge without blood and violence.

However, if the Alliance chooses a radical option, and tries to falsify the elections, the political opposition will not be limited to Chisinau. There will be an aggravation of the situation in Gagauzia and in those areas where the positions of the communists are traditionally strong. To protect its interests in Moldova, Russia needs to support the Moldovan opposition and do everything possible so that the conflict is resolved through diplomacy. It is also critically important to prevent foreign interference, otherwise Moldova will share the unenviable fate of neighboring Ukraine.
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  1. parusnik
    parusnik 28 May 2014 09: 59
    +3
    Let's hope that the Moldavians will learn from the mistakes of Ukraine .. they’ve already done it ..
    1. DanSabaka
      DanSabaka 28 May 2014 14: 18
      0
      well, they don’t want to learn from the mistakes of Romania .... (I'm not talking about Transnistria)
    2. dacii
      dacii 28 May 2014 14: 57
      -4
      Dear, do not be mistaken and do not mislead others!
      To begin with, Moldova is:
      - most of it in Romania (historically);
      -Bessarabia (historically);
      - part in Ukraine (historically);
      Transnistria .....
      Given that all this is the work of the Russian Empire, the USSR, and now also Russia, which promotes separation: Gagauzia, Transnistria ..., it’s no wonder that the people are divided, poor and embittered .... !!!
      That's why someone goes where.
      Who is in Russia, which deportes on business and without, without ceremonies, because most of those who went to Russia turn their backs on it ... a long history. - cops like wolves, milk: registration, patents, a ban on entry, deportation ... this does not contribute to friendship !!!
      And someone goes to England, France, Italy, Spain, Germany, etc.
      The difference between those who travel to Europe and those who travel Russia is obvious, I'm not only talking about earned ....

      Russia has put Rogozin in a dialogue with Moldova, and he is not a good diplomat (maybe they’re a specialist), relations only deteriorate, the further the more ....
      Russia supports those who want to divide Moldova (although there is nothing to divide): Gagauzia, Transnistria, but when at home, in Russia - God forbid!
      This is not the 2nd standard !!! ???
      Do not share someone else's skin, look after your !!!!
      Before Moldavia got in touch with the Russians, it was a BIG AND DEAR STATE, in Europe and beyond.
      And now?
      What is left of her ???
      Let's finish breathing more ....
      1. stalkerwalker
        stalkerwalker 28 May 2014 15: 18
        +7
        Quote: dacii
        Before Moldavia got in touch with the Russians, it was a BIG AND DEAR STATE, in Europe and beyond.

        Dear descendant of mighty Dacians ... laughing
        Before ... Romania and the Romanians "had" Moldova and the Moldovans as they wanted, and wherever they wanted ...
        Why don’t you live calmly? How much can you sing Maydaun songs about bad Russia?
        Moldova was divided into pro-Roman Moldavia and Transnistria in exactly the same way as Ukraine is collapsing today. And only the 4th Army of the Russian Armed Forces stopped the massacre, and volunteers - genocide non-Moldavian population ...
        You have young pseudo-Europeans, the Maydaunian bottling, in your head there is nothing more than free love and fashionable gadgets. Cover your laziness and nearness with shouts of geyropeyskoy freedom of choice of partners. And horror stories about the invaders.
        So you will die with the unfulfilled dream of a European brothel in the role of the last omitted ... lol
        1. dacii
          dacii 28 May 2014 15: 35
          -6
          teach history ... well, at least read it on wikipedia.
          After which, I assure you, you will not say nonsense!
          You yourself maydanuty!
          1. luka095
            luka095 28 May 2014 20: 43
            0
            And since when is Wikipedia - the American project - the ultimate truth? And the story really needs to be STUDYED. And do not memorize ...
        2. leytenant
          leytenant 29 May 2014 09: 29
          0
          not 4, but 14 the combined arms army under the command of the heralds of Lieutenant Lebed, or rather all that was not left for that period of time in the territory of Transnistria after the collapse of the alliance. Only as a result of Lebed’s personal position did the military conflict resolve.
      2. dacii
        dacii 28 May 2014 15: 32
        -3
        here I am talking about (only a small part !!):

        Cetatea Albă White Fortress (Belgorod-Dniester - Odessa region, Ukraine)
        Cetatea Chilia - Budzhak (Fortress in the city of Belgorod-Dniester)
        Cetatea Hotin - Khotyn Fortress (in the city of Khotyn, Ukraine)
        Cetatea Sucevei - Throne Fortress (in the territory of modern Romania in the city of Suceava)
        Cetatea Neamţului - Niemets Fortress (in Romania, in the historical region of Moldova)
        Cetatea Nouă - Roman - New Fortress (in the territory of modern Romania in the city of Suceava)
        Cetatea Orhei - Old Orhei (60 km northeast of Chisinau)
        1. stalkerwalker
          stalkerwalker 28 May 2014 15: 43
          +3
          Quote: dacii
          teach history ... well, at least read it on wikipedia.

          "... we all learned a little - something and somehow ..." by wikipedia ... laughing
          Quote: dacii
          here I am talking about (only a small part !!):

          Could start with the capital of Dacia for a start, if you study history in a Moldavian school using Romanian textbooks ... crying
          1. dacii
            dacii 28 May 2014 15: 47
            -3
            1) Moldova was a long time before Romania was founded!
            2) "had" Moldavia and the Moldovans as they wanted, and wherever they wanted - YOU ARE POOR !!
            3) about bad Russia-I just state the facts !!!
            4) Moldova was divided into pro-Romanian - IT was divided and not divided!
            5) pseudo-Europeans, Maydaunovsky bottling - this is not about me!
            6) Euro-brothel in the role of the last omitted - well, REALLY CLOWN

            If you are so right, respect the opinions of others!
            I am not for the European integration of Moldova, but for HISTORICAL JUSTICE (REUNION OF MOLDOVA AND ROMANIA)!
            How is it, dear VV Putin said: they robbed us, took the Crimea .... - and so, Russia took real steps in resolving this issue, with the green men ... and Moldovans can’t even talk about their history ????
            On, read: http://www.orhei-md.info/forum/55-103-1
            1. stalkerwalker
              stalkerwalker 28 May 2014 16: 14
              +3
              Quote: dacii
              1) Moldova was a long time before Romania was founded!

              I'm sorry ...
              I was mistaken ... You taught history according to the dill textbook. And there the great Dill appeared for a long time (your spelling laughing ) Until...
              But in your nearness (oh, these geyropeyskie values!) And screwed up here ... recourse
              1. dacii
                dacii 28 May 2014 16: 20
                -2
                "gay European values" are about you.
                I’m just writing and stating the facts, and you, like a rural deer, talk a lot and about nothing, just insult !!
                Choose the words, pig hi
          2. dacii
            dacii 28 May 2014 16: 06
            -2
            do not make laugh, you are so funny!
            "I could start from the capital of Dacia for a start, if you learn history in a Moldovan school using Romanian textbooks" - I taught history back in the mssr, and so, there was nothing like that, no, and it is VERY Pity !! Even in Romania, this is still not taught !!!

            The history of Moldova was written by lols, some of Europe, Asia and hell knows from where, after a couple of bubbles, and this is very sad!

            And since you have been writing about this for so long, you might think that you are a Moldavian, which means that the topic is not indifferent,
    3. reunire
      reunire 30 May 2014 23: 29
      0
      Most of Moldova in Romania, Ukraine, Transnistria - and it really hurts!

      If Russia could help reunite Moldova + Romania + Transnistria (even without the lands that the USSR transferred to Ukraine).
      After which, the people themselves will decide on the way out of NATO, etc.! Seeing a reunited country!
      I am sure they will be both hands for TS!

      I am sure it will be a reliable strategic partner of Russia, as it was many times over the course of many centuries, with the exception of the last .. (
  2. inkass_98
    inkass_98 28 May 2014 10: 00
    +3
    Moldova is precisely a political misunderstanding, even greater than Ruin. Most of the country's able-bodied population is constantly away, they earn money, some deputies remain and fight with themselves.
  3. Aryan
    Aryan 28 May 2014 10: 01
    +2
    if Khryusha and Stepashka sued their puppeteers that they forgot to remove them from their hands when they went to the toilet
    then these "frames" on the frame of the campaign, on the contrary, really like the hand of the US Ambassador in their one place ...
  4. dkflbvbh
    dkflbvbh 28 May 2014 10: 16
    +2
    I put a plus to the article, only because I do not want euro-asses in Moldova. And so there is no faith in the Moldavian communists. This is so long as they are striving for power, they promise everything for the people, but 10 years of rule has shown that they are not capable of anything and nothing has been done for this decision either to solve the Transnistrian problem or to draw closer to Russia.
  5. Klim podkova
    Klim podkova 28 May 2014 10: 41
    +4
    If my memory serves me (and it does not change, that's for sure), there was already a communist president in Moldova: Vladimir Voronin. So what? The Communist millionaire (rate the passage!) Did not get tired of announcing the European choice of the Republic of Moldova, where Moldova was stamping. Romanization also went with him. So you should not hope for the pro-Russian orientation of Moldova in the event of the election of another changeover to the presidency.
    1. dkflbvbh
      dkflbvbh 28 May 2014 12: 06
      +2
      Wow, wow and I mean the same thing.
    2. Astartes
      Astartes 28 May 2014 13: 27
      +1
      Changes, and much.
  6. The comment was deleted.
    1. sarmisegetuza
      sarmisegetuza 28 May 2014 11: 41
      +3
      Written by an owner of super high IQ ...
    2. The comment was deleted.
    3. The comment was deleted.
  7. chunga-changa
    chunga-changa 28 May 2014 11: 14
    0
    There is another problem. Moldova has nothing but Moldavians. There is no access to the sea, there is no gas oil, there is no coal of iron, in general, where do not stick anything. Moldova clean ballast. The population will readily sit on the neck of the European Union without giving practically anything in return. Therefore, there is only one question, how to make the elite completely obedient without giving her anything for it. Clearly, the elite rests and wants something tasty, from here and the whole intrigue.
    1. Starover_Z
      Starover_Z 28 May 2014 20: 11
      0
      Quote: chunga-changa
      The population will readily sit on the neck of the European Union without giving practically anything in return.

      The European Union is not worse - they need a sales market, not a ballast on their neck!
      In Europe, other standards in agriculture, so in any case, they will require the complete collapse of the old workers' enterprises, WITHOUT WARRANTY, the construction of new ones!
      No one needs competitors!
  8. Leshka
    Leshka 28 May 2014 11: 22
    0
    probably it will turn out that the minority will prevail over the majority
  9. aud13
    aud13 28 May 2014 11: 28
    +2
    Quote: parusnik
    Let's hope that the Moldavians will learn from the mistakes of Ukraine .. they’ve already done it ..

    Apparently on the example of Ukraine, one should not only hope, but also actively influence the situation.
    It's time to learn from mistakes already ...
  10. X Y Z
    X Y Z 28 May 2014 12: 52
    0
    It is possible and necessary to tell everyone for a long time that we do not interfere in their political life and respect sovereignty, but this in no way justifies our inaction there. You need to work anyway!
  11. moldovan
    moldovan 28 May 2014 12: 54
    +1
     DedJara Today, 10:53 If you consider that the Moldovans are even dumber than the Ukrainians, then they are very close to the Maidan.
    Dumb your kind.
    1. smile
      smile 28 May 2014 13: 33
      +1
      moldovan
      Well, something to do with it? We have a good saying - in the family is not without urrrod. This representative is, so to speak, a mental disabled person. :))) Or, maybe, DedJara just baked his head, it happens .... :)))
  12. Astartes
    Astartes 28 May 2014 13: 39
    +1
    It is possible that it will not work to throw off the pro-European alliance, if, for example, among the Moldovans, sympathy or antipathy towards Russia is well established, then the pro-Russian forces are now finding out more about which of them is more Russian. For example, the phrase of the leader of the communists "We do not refuse to sign treaties and agreements with the European Union, but the current association agreement must be canceled" is issued by many small supposedly pro-Russian politicians as a clear sign that the communists are in favor of European integration. Although, for example, there are agreements on Borders and good-neighborliness, for example, they also do not need to be signed to show their love for Russia ??? Such informational reasons are used to divide people into small parties, and people are being led. So it is likely that the majority of the population of Moldova is for friendship with Russia, but because of their blindness, they will again live under the Euro-liberals.
  13. tasey
    tasey 28 May 2014 14: 19
    0
    Today kittens had to be drowned, a sin, of course ... But Moldova is a conditional entity, it lives only because its owners didn’t get it. Squeak like those kittens ...
  14. papss
    papss 28 May 2014 15: 04
    0
    Quote: tasey
    Today kittens had to be drowned, a sin, of course ... But Moldova is a conditional entity, it lives only because its owners didn’t get it. Squeak like those kittens ...

    Professional cat-dogs, who know how conventional education "squeak" and write with mistakes, should know that this education (conventional, as the cat-coder writes) was created thanks to Russia. And the point is not whether he lives or does not live (and, Moldova will live), here the question is with whom? And another possible question, against whom?
    1. moldovan
      moldovan 28 May 2014 18: 50
      0
      Quote: Moldovan
       DedJara Today, 10:53 If you consider that the Moldovans are even dumber than the Ukrainians, then they are very close to the Maidan.
      Dumb your kind Ded Jara.
  15. sborka
    sborka 28 May 2014 20: 52
    0
    Quote: dacii
    Before Moldova got in touch with the Russians, it was a BIG AND RESPECTED STATE, in Europe and beyond. And now?

    Well, why, in all the shit that happens in these "sovereign and independent" countries, Russia is to blame, and not themselves ... that's really, truly, the next generation, unreading and not thinking ... you know the saying? "there is no reason to blame the mirror, if ..." read and think
  16. ioann1
    ioann1 28 May 2014 22: 24
    0
    Russian Mir is not such a myth as it wants to impose the West on the whole world. The history, culture, language, community of traditions of the past rally the eastern countries around Russia. This is historically the case. The West, for the sake of itself, wants to destroy this World by tearing it from Russia. The world is striving for multipolarity, and Russia plays a major role in this. You can resist this, build intrigue, lie, kill, but it is absolutely hopeless. The Americans and the EU are doing their best to tear the Russian World apart, to divide Russia with Ukraine, but nothing happens, because it is not in the power of the people. Russia plays the role of restraint.
    In the obvious future, everything will become clear.
  17. siberalt
    siberalt 28 May 2014 22: 43
    0
    The saddest thing, not for us, of course, is the "pulling in" of all the others in between Russia. Really pi * ndos computer programs have become higher than the mind and will of man. These colloidal "crotches" have already understood where they were pulled. They say that history repeats itself. Not certainly in that way. Stories don't care, it's on its own. Its individual episodes are repeated by experienced directors to please the money bag. Sometimes it turns out something similar, but far from it. The laws of nature are independent of us. Bulgakov's ingenious dictum - "man is not just mortal, but suddenly mortal." And what will the computer programmers answer to this?
  18. vikers
    vikers 28 May 2014 23: 59
    0
    in Transnistria the situation is different I doubt that the West will want Abkhazia here on the border because Russia must protect peacekeepers
  19. razved
    razved 29 May 2014 00: 03
    0
    There are ALL objective prerequisites for the repetition of Ukrainian events. Chisinau, with its Western ammunition, is now trying hard to prevent them. and at the same time for some reason pulls troops to the Transnistrian border.
  20. raf
    raf 30 May 2014 17: 03
    0
    Well, with the Moldovan liberal-democratic litter of the Romanians and the Geyropeans, it’s clear and understandable, but what about the communists, no, I’m sorry, the commies that they are doing. Why are commies? Yes, because the real Communists are not in words and demagogic slogans, they are fighting and defending interesting nations, sacrificing themselves. Moldovan pseudo-communists, the public.