The fate of Novorossia: several scenarios for the development of the civil war in Ukraine
The challenges facing the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics are accepted. The viability of the established Federal Republic of New Russia (NEF) will largely depend precisely on the speed, and most importantly, the success of state-building.
Protect from chaos - create a state
In Ukraine, as a result of the coup d'état, as we have repeatedly written, the state was dismantled. Now all the lands of Ukraine, except Crimea, are a territory without a state with its inherent attributes in the form of tax, pension, law enforcement, health and other systems.
In the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics, the situation is further aggravated by the fact that referendums took place. The popular will, embodied in the vote, transforms the power from regional to local. In other words, “anarchy” (if we consider the situation through the Ukrainian focus) comes here much earlier.
The key goal for the republics is to ensure security. Everything else in the conditions of external aggression and rampant criminality fades into the background. And, realizing the challenges, the leadership of the republics began the process of state-building.
Establishment of government bodies
By virtue of a better organization and greater threat to security, the process of creating government bodies proved to be more successful on the territory of the DPR. So, in the first week after the referendum, the DPR developed a constitution and created:
1. Supreme Council consisting of 150 deputies;
2. National Security Council;
3. Cabinet of Ministers;
4. Ministry.
In Lugansk, there is still no clear success in building bodies that are beyond the control of the Kiev authorities. Everything so far boils down to attempts to pacify the criminals and attract business executives to their side. Part of the reason for this was the very nature of the uprising in the region: the liberation movement began from below, without coordination with local politicians who understood the principles of functioning of state bodies. Thus, in a bunch of DNR and LC, components of NGF, Lugansk is in the position of a slave subject.
Key tasks (besides the merging process) are:
1. Creating a full-fledged army to confront Kiev;
2. Resuscitation of law enforcement agencies, their reinforcement by militias and the fight against criminality;
3. Clearing of new authorities from politicians and officials loyal to the oligarchy;
4. Elimination of contradictions between the LC and the DPR, as well as their representatives;
5. The nationalization of the assets of the oligarchs and the reversal of budget flows in the direction of Donetsk and Lugansk.
There is no need to speak about any full-fledged work of the Donetsk Ministry of Education or the creation of an analogue of a pension fund: there is simply no money, personnel or time for their operation.
In addition, the situation is aggravated by the leadership of the republics to veche democracy: the decision to reassign checkpoints on the border of the DPR with the Russian Federation was taken at a rally, similarly, the decision was made in the LPR to appoint its head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs. This decision-making method was relevant with a lack of legitimacy before the referendum. Now decisions need to be made quickly and clearly, without waiting for popular approval on Sundays.
And if personnel issues are still somehow solved, then the situation with the model of the economy in the republics is much more complicated and ambiguous.
Recognizes or does not recognize: that is the question
The possibility of building an economy independent of Kiev on the basis of the DPR and the LPR directly depends on Russia's recognition of these state entities. The recognition in this case is identical to the opening of the Russian market for products from the Donbass.
Thus, there are two scenarios for the development of the NGF economy.
Scenario number 1: Recognition from Russia. In this case, the Russian Federation opens its markets and agrees to buy Donbass goods. Consequently, you have to either create your own currency, since Kiev will leave the Donbass without the hryvnia, or introduce the Russian ruble into circulation, and then rebuild its tax and customs system, attracting Russian managers. Businesses will be nationalized. There will be an acute question of personnel: most of the enterprises of Donbass somehow belong to the oligarchs, and they are managed by hired managers. When nationalization (and it can not be avoided http://www.scm.com.ua/media-centre/news/view/1546/) enterprises, these frames will leave workplaces. We will have to find new markets and establish cooperation ties with alternative, not Ukrainian, suppliers of raw materials and goods.
Scenario number 2: No recognition - no market and economy. There is no personnel to create a at least functioning state in the absence of support from Russia. The task is too large-scale, and they do not teach the state-building in any of the Ukrainian universities, moreover, few officials have similar skills.
In the meantime, the Russian Federation has limited itself with a simple statement of the fact of a successful referendum. To recognize the DNI and the LC - means to plunge into the maelstrom of the problems that followed after the recognition. First, Russia finds itself embroiled in a civil war in Ukraine and, if not taking responsibility for the activities of the militia, will be forced to respond to the accusations of the West in support of the NEF. The West will receive an excellent chance to accuse Russia of all mortal sins, up to and including support for terrorism. Our opponent will not miss this chance. Therefore, I believe, there will be no recognition. There will be no economy in the Donbass, which means ...
War to the bitter end
The economy of Donbass will die, however, as the economy of Ukraine. Miners will no longer have to negotiate with the administration of mines to raise wages, as production stops. A similar situation will be in all areas of the economy. Whether it will happen for internal reasons or Kiev will declare a default after the elections is not the point. It is important that the militia under the command of Strelkova will get a lot of new fighters with this kind of development of events, who will have no option but a front-line war for a better future.
Food and fuel stocks in the Donbass will quickly run out, and the problem of a humanitarian catastrophe will arise to its full height. However, it may not reach it if there are “windows” in the border through which all the necessary supplies go.
In this case, the civil war in Ukraine remains a problem for the residents of Ukraine itself, and, of course, the neighboring states. In Eastern Europe, Somalia is the size of 600 per 900 km, in which the contours of the future world order will be determined.
And the citizens of Ukraine have to undergo a course of cure from indifference to their future and plunge into the abyss of chaos.
Protect from chaos - create a state
In Ukraine, as a result of the coup d'état, as we have repeatedly written, the state was dismantled. Now all the lands of Ukraine, except Crimea, are a territory without a state with its inherent attributes in the form of tax, pension, law enforcement, health and other systems.
In the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics, the situation is further aggravated by the fact that referendums took place. The popular will, embodied in the vote, transforms the power from regional to local. In other words, “anarchy” (if we consider the situation through the Ukrainian focus) comes here much earlier.
The key goal for the republics is to ensure security. Everything else in the conditions of external aggression and rampant criminality fades into the background. And, realizing the challenges, the leadership of the republics began the process of state-building.
Establishment of government bodies
By virtue of a better organization and greater threat to security, the process of creating government bodies proved to be more successful on the territory of the DPR. So, in the first week after the referendum, the DPR developed a constitution and created:
1. Supreme Council consisting of 150 deputies;
2. National Security Council;
3. Cabinet of Ministers;
4. Ministry.
In Lugansk, there is still no clear success in building bodies that are beyond the control of the Kiev authorities. Everything so far boils down to attempts to pacify the criminals and attract business executives to their side. Part of the reason for this was the very nature of the uprising in the region: the liberation movement began from below, without coordination with local politicians who understood the principles of functioning of state bodies. Thus, in a bunch of DNR and LC, components of NGF, Lugansk is in the position of a slave subject.
Key tasks (besides the merging process) are:
1. Creating a full-fledged army to confront Kiev;
2. Resuscitation of law enforcement agencies, their reinforcement by militias and the fight against criminality;
3. Clearing of new authorities from politicians and officials loyal to the oligarchy;
4. Elimination of contradictions between the LC and the DPR, as well as their representatives;
5. The nationalization of the assets of the oligarchs and the reversal of budget flows in the direction of Donetsk and Lugansk.
There is no need to speak about any full-fledged work of the Donetsk Ministry of Education or the creation of an analogue of a pension fund: there is simply no money, personnel or time for their operation.
In addition, the situation is aggravated by the leadership of the republics to veche democracy: the decision to reassign checkpoints on the border of the DPR with the Russian Federation was taken at a rally, similarly, the decision was made in the LPR to appoint its head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs. This decision-making method was relevant with a lack of legitimacy before the referendum. Now decisions need to be made quickly and clearly, without waiting for popular approval on Sundays.
And if personnel issues are still somehow solved, then the situation with the model of the economy in the republics is much more complicated and ambiguous.
Recognizes or does not recognize: that is the question
The possibility of building an economy independent of Kiev on the basis of the DPR and the LPR directly depends on Russia's recognition of these state entities. The recognition in this case is identical to the opening of the Russian market for products from the Donbass.
Thus, there are two scenarios for the development of the NGF economy.
Scenario number 1: Recognition from Russia. In this case, the Russian Federation opens its markets and agrees to buy Donbass goods. Consequently, you have to either create your own currency, since Kiev will leave the Donbass without the hryvnia, or introduce the Russian ruble into circulation, and then rebuild its tax and customs system, attracting Russian managers. Businesses will be nationalized. There will be an acute question of personnel: most of the enterprises of Donbass somehow belong to the oligarchs, and they are managed by hired managers. When nationalization (and it can not be avoided http://www.scm.com.ua/media-centre/news/view/1546/) enterprises, these frames will leave workplaces. We will have to find new markets and establish cooperation ties with alternative, not Ukrainian, suppliers of raw materials and goods.
Scenario number 2: No recognition - no market and economy. There is no personnel to create a at least functioning state in the absence of support from Russia. The task is too large-scale, and they do not teach the state-building in any of the Ukrainian universities, moreover, few officials have similar skills.
In the meantime, the Russian Federation has limited itself with a simple statement of the fact of a successful referendum. To recognize the DNI and the LC - means to plunge into the maelstrom of the problems that followed after the recognition. First, Russia finds itself embroiled in a civil war in Ukraine and, if not taking responsibility for the activities of the militia, will be forced to respond to the accusations of the West in support of the NEF. The West will receive an excellent chance to accuse Russia of all mortal sins, up to and including support for terrorism. Our opponent will not miss this chance. Therefore, I believe, there will be no recognition. There will be no economy in the Donbass, which means ...
War to the bitter end
The economy of Donbass will die, however, as the economy of Ukraine. Miners will no longer have to negotiate with the administration of mines to raise wages, as production stops. A similar situation will be in all areas of the economy. Whether it will happen for internal reasons or Kiev will declare a default after the elections is not the point. It is important that the militia under the command of Strelkova will get a lot of new fighters with this kind of development of events, who will have no option but a front-line war for a better future.
Food and fuel stocks in the Donbass will quickly run out, and the problem of a humanitarian catastrophe will arise to its full height. However, it may not reach it if there are “windows” in the border through which all the necessary supplies go.
In this case, the civil war in Ukraine remains a problem for the residents of Ukraine itself, and, of course, the neighboring states. In Eastern Europe, Somalia is the size of 600 per 900 km, in which the contours of the future world order will be determined.
And the citizens of Ukraine have to undergo a course of cure from indifference to their future and plunge into the abyss of chaos.
- Ivan Lizan
- http://www.odnako.org/blogs/sudba-novorossii-neskolko-scenariev-razvitiya-grazhdanskoy-voyni-na-ukraine/
Information