- The president is new, he will have to form a certain team. Most likely, not on their own, but “under the supervision of” Bandera, who call themselves “revolutionaries”. If the same people who brought Euromaidan to their offices remain in power in Kiev, then I fear that after some time we will witness the final collapse of Ukraine.
Moreover, the collapse as a result of the growing civil war in the country. Washington today is doing everything to unleash a full-scale civilian bloodshed, draw Russia into it, and then declare it the aggressor. Then the Americans will not even need to coordinate sanctions against Moscow with European allies. I do not rule out that in this case Russia will simply be declared a fascist state, after all, there are politicians in the West who have long tried to expose our leadership to Nazi dictators. At the same time, of course, the United States will "build" the European Union. The Old World already has its own problems, so Washington also draws it into the Ukrainian crisis. First, that the sanctions, which are very unfavorable for European business, look like a kind of collective punishment, demonstrating the unity of the views of NATO allies. Secondly, it is possible that this is done to undermine the euro and strengthen the dollar, declining to shale gas, and so on. And thirdly, in this case, the United States will, like the last racketeers, “sell” its “protection against the red threat” to the Europeans. Over the past 23 years, Brussels and Washington have frantically searched for the meaning of NATO to present it to the world.
The North Atlantic bloc was preparing to repel a certain aggression of North Korea, then to neutralize the mythical Iranian long-range missiles ... Everything is now found! It’s a great opportunity to announce to everyone that today Russia wants to devour Vilnius, Warsaw, and then the “Bolshevik Cossacks” will enter Paris. "Protection" costs money, NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen literally put a knife to the throat of careless members of the alliance, demanding that they increase military budgets. At the same time in Brussels are preparing new "defensive plans", the increase in the number of military exercises, the deployment of more significant contingents in Eastern Europe.
Well, and on the sly, they will begin to solve the “problems” in Venezuela and Syria, distracting Moscow’s attention from the scenario that is being implemented by the West in these countries.
“You know, many of us ask ourselves a very simple question: what, the Ukrainians themselves, cannot understand the real essence of the events taking place in their country?” Are they so brainwashed?
- My answer to this question is also very interesting. Well, okay, many Ukrainians were convinced that byak, Russia is not good, he has been poisoned all his life. But there is an objective analysis of the situation: you just have to look at the actions of the current authorities in Kiev and how the West supports them. Understand that all these actions and scenarios objectively lead to the destruction of the Ukrainian state. Back in the fall, when the “Maidan” was just beginning, I repeated many times that people on Independence Square in the capital of Ukraine are destroying their own sovereign statehood. To which my colleagues in Kiev answered me: “No, you simply do not know Ukraine.” It turned out that I know something, but it turns out they do not know. In fact, we see now the dismantling of the state.
Why do most people, for example, in Kiev, behave like hypnotized? If you don’t like Russia, don’t. But do you really not realize that people who have come to power are driving nails into the coffin of their country. On Maidan, politicians from the stage loudly and hoarsely assured everyone and everything in their great love for Nenko. And no one sees that self-styled "patriots" are destroying a country? Not the FSB destroys Ukraine, not the GRU, but they.
It is extremely important to understand: in order to save Ukraine, it is necessary to remove those figures who were brought to power by the “Maidan”. Viktor Yanukovych bad? Come on, everyone drove and forgotten. But the current illegitimate leaders in Kiev will surely end the country. Someone deliberately, some - just by their "stupid". This applies primarily to the bulk of neo-Nazis. All that they want is to kill, strangle, revenge, put on their knees with impunity. They do not even want to fight, because you can die. But the dream to engage in lawlessness against unarmed citizens came true.
So, I repeat: these figures will remain in power in Kiev - and we will see two, three, and, perhaps, four Ukraine. I wish there was no blood. But, unfortunately, while my scenario for Ukraine is negative, there are two options: “Bad” and “Very Bad”.
- You mentioned Viktor Yanukovych, who to this day remains the legally elected president of the country. I recently heard from my acquaintance naive arguments that the head of state who fled from Kiev is still able to return there with triumph, and this will happen when the enlightened people call him ...
- Possible developments with the participation of V. Yanukovych may look as follows. He returns to Donetsk, convenes his own government there and begins to assure: “Ukraine is here! The capital and the cabinet will be in Donetsk. I am the president of Ukraine. Ukraine, which is here. " From Kiev they begin to answer that Ukraine is there, the quarrel begins ...
Technologically - quite possible option. But for the time being, there are simply no conditions for its implementation, because V. Yanukovych, in fact, to a large extent, as a politician, has gone bankrupt. The Southeast does not like him much either, because the presidential "Party of Regions" Southeast betrayed, as its recent congress in Donetsk showed. No "PR" nothing to do with the Southeast.
One of the main ills of this region is that during all the years of Ukraine’s existence as an independent state, it did not have adequate political representation. The Party of Regions was actually a project of financial-industrial groups and local bureaucrats, who solved their own problems, and used voters for their re-election.
Moreover, for the return of V. Yanukovych security conditions are not created. After all, he is not an antique hero who is ready to fight the hundred-headed hydra. He needs comfortable conditions, which are not in Donetsk today. Imagine, he flies to his Donetsk or Lugansk, and tomorrow some sniper kills him - and “hello”, there is no legally elected president. After that, they rejoice in Kiev: “The problem is less. Did you say that you had a legitimate president somewhere? He is no more. ”
Therefore, the return of V. Yanukovych today is not in question. Theoretically this is possible, practically there are no conditions for this.
- The main question is: do you think that the new government will take seriously the demands of the South-East of Ukraine on the federalization of the country? Instead of holding "parties" called "round tables" and the adoption of "memorandums" about the need to "disarm the terrorists" will enter into negotiations with the leadership of the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics?
- In fact, the idea of federalizing Ukraine appeared a long time ago, and it was not Moscow who invented it and now threw it. The project of federalization was discussed in the administration of Leonid Kuchma, the “papers” of similar content were in the administration of V. Yanukovych, the “Party of Regions” also promised to do this. Why? But because the realities of Ukraine are such, the internal watershed is so deep that the unitary structure of the country did not allow solving these issues.
And all the 23s of the year of the post-Soviet Ukraine clearly show that the conflict was constantly reproduced, including because of the nearness of Kiev politicians. Instead of “healing” the conflict, they constantly pressed on a sore spot, deepening the gap between people, in effect declaring half of the country second-class citizens. He also did not “heal” for objective reasons: the outlook on life, on the future and on the past, and the worldview of people living in different parts of the country are very different.
Therefore, the entire period of the existence of Ukraine as an independent state, federalization projects have now surfaced and now artificially moved into a closet. And now the problem is so acute, because the state is indeed on the verge of civil war.
And how to save it? Exclusively through the implementation of the project to change the state system. Therefore, I believe that the separatists are just people in Kiev who decided that they would impose their whole country with hard power, only their own vision of the world.
Through the "knee break" does not work. And it turns out that those who insist on a military or military solution to the problem simply postpone the division of the country - but not for the most distant future, I am sure. Instead of finding a compromise and a peaceful way to resolve the situation, in Kiev today they think that by killing a couple of hundred people and a couple of thousand by going to jail, they will “close” the question forever. No, they will not “close”, and in the future it can be solved exclusively in an absolutely radical form.
However, in my opinion, federalization is already a thing of the past. Kiev did not heed the voice of reason and now a significant part of people in the South-East of Ukraine no longer want any federalization - only independence or accession to Russia.
- If I understand correctly, the consideration of the issue of federalization after the presidential elections in Kiev will also be viewed through an automatic rifle scope ...
- “Post-Maid” politicians before the elections demonstrated a complete lack of understanding of what is happening in their own country, and a very weak understanding of the events around their country. Therefore, it is very possible that the train "Federalization" will soon pass the train finally, and talk about it will be yesterday afternoon. The question will already be about the need for a confederative structure, and, perhaps, politicians will even bring the matter to a split in Ukraine. They do not understand: there is still time and the opportunity to make a stop at this “station”, to begin, finally, to negotiate. Moreover, we are already talking not only about Donetsk and Lugansk, which proclaimed independence, but also about other regions of the country.
But I have a feeling that the further, the prospect of civilized federalization becomes less and less. Think, why do people in the South-East of Ukraine need such a Kiev? For what? How will he help the South-East? Solve economic problems? Not. We hear that in Kiev, in fact, these people are called almost slaves, who must be a hoax to the elite, who came from Lviv and set their own rules of the game. Or, perhaps, Kiev promises prosperity in this region? Not. He wants to sign an association agreement with the European Union. The political part is already “endorsed”, and when the economic component is signed, the economy of the Southeast will simply collapse and people will be on the street. They will become unemployed, their families will go around the world to look for food.
Next: maybe Kiev is ready to solve their cultural problems? Not. Kiev rigidly imposes on them not even Ukrainization and neo-Nazi banderization. He says, "Everything you knew about stories, about yourself and your future, it's not true, you have to forget and trample. Now either you are praying on Bandera, on the European Union and on Washington, or you are not people at all. ” Maybe solve the problems of education? Also no. Kiev has no positive offer for the South-East, no picture of an attractive future. Only threats, insults and violence.
In fact, the federation aims to organize the harmonious coexistence of people. The current position of Kiev to such a harmonious coexistence within the framework of this state does not lead. Then the question is: why do we need Kiev at all, Donetsk, Odessa, Kharkov? For what? What functions in relation to these regions will it perform? What is the use, what positive effect will the South-East get from the “center”?
The question is rhetorical.
If in Kiev they refuse to understand this, the “Federalization” station will indeed soon be left behind, and no one will talk about it anymore. While we see only the authorities' desire either to deceive supporters of federalization, or “crush” them, Kiev interprets the Geneva accords exclusively in its favor, considering them as a means to defeat the opposition in the South-East. The authorities legalized their own extremists, writing them down to the National Guard, to a certain Dnepr battalion ...
All the rest they consider extremists. For example, in the documents that were approved in Geneva, it says about the amnesty of all, except for people who have committed serious crimes. But what are serious crimes? Who will qualify all acts? The constitutional court is dispersed by force, the courts of general jurisdiction are not allowed to work normally, they let judges through some “corridors of shame”, are beaten, they are not allowed to live normally.
Do you know why dispersed? Why, the Constitutional Court, in accordance with the Basic Law of Ukraine, had to inevitably decide on the illegality of the coup d’état. Therefore, he was immediately slammed, and no one is going to revive. There is no constitutional court, but there is no demand, as they say, nothing, everything is supposedly by law ...
So it turns out: Kiev announced all people in the East by separatists, and for separatism - from 15 years to life imprisonment. The murderers who were outraged on the “Maidan” did not commit serious crimes from the point of view of the authorities, and will be amnestied. But the man who in the South-East took part in the rally for federalization, has already committed a serious crime. You know, the law does not work, it is not an agreement, it is, as they said in one Soviet film, a painting where you send it, that it will pierce its head.
Here it is, the essence of Kiev’s policy is to deceive everybody, get “preferences” from the West and constantly hide behind conversations on the theme that “Washington supports us”. Absolute dead end! Americans don’t approve of the actions of the junta in the Southeast; nobody cares about the fate of Donetsk people in Donetsk, not in Washington and not in Brussels.
- I will return to the winner of the presidential election. Please complete the phrase: “By voting for Petro Poroshenko, Ukrainian voters voted for ...”. For what? And will they get what they expect?
- I think that the voters did not actually vote for Petro Poroshenko. The real results of the election, most likely, no one will ever know. Poroshenko won because he reached an agreement with the Americans, and they contributed to reaching agreement on his candidacy among other actors in the current government in Kiev. Simply put, the results are “correctly calculated.” Therefore, it is difficult to talk about exactly what the Ukrainian voter voted for.
At least, it seems rather strange that the “Maidan” squealed for three months, cursing all the oligarchs, but suddenly the Ukrainian people loved one of them so much that they even made him president. And several others, by the way, governors. All this is farce, cynical imitation and nothing more. And the ordinary voter just used it.
By the way, for the same reason, personally, I never believed in the possibility of holding an all-Ukrainian referendum on federalization. After all, the will will begin to organize Kiev, and he has one goal - to bury the very idea of federalization. Juggling the results of the vote, and then waving this falsified piece of paper and shouting joyfully: “We held a referendum, the people said“ No! ”. For rigging the counting of votes in power are enormous opportunities.
In general, the Ukrainian people are sick with different pipe dreams. Some rave about European integration, which supposedly solves all problems. Others consider themselves to be the highest race on which slaves from the southeast should work. All this is nonsense, and delirium is dangerous. And the main problem of the citizens of Ukraine is that they allowed themselves to be convinced of all this.
- By the way: do you not take seriously the threat of Yulia Tymoshenko shortly before the elections in the event of your defeat to organize a new “Maidan”? Will the “revolution” continue after Poroshenko’s election?
- It may well be. After all, “Maidan” is the only effective “know-how” of Ukrainian statehood. True, self-destructive. Ukrainians made an almost religious cult out of Maidan.
One problem: Tymoshenko may not have enough money to organize another revolution. After all, in fact, "people's anger" is very expensive. Let's say this “Maidan” took up to 20 million dollars a week. Does Tymoshenko have such a resource, I do not know.