When two days before the Ukrainian vote for the president at the Baltic Forum, held in Jurmala 23-24 in May 2014, lead researcher of the Center for European Policy Studies (Brussels, Belgium) Michael Emerson openly stated that “President Poroshenko 27 will sign this June the economic part of the Association Agreement with the European Union ”, it was a rumor. And jarred many of the specialists gathered there - scientists, political scientists, journalists, political and public figures. However, there were no objections: what political correctness is fate decides ...
The fate of Ukraine, of course. So necessary to the West, but agonizing in the fire of civil war and in anticipation of territorial collapse.
The Baltic Forum held an international conference on the theme “Opportunities and costs of the Eastern Partnership” and, of course, was looking for ways to implement this very Eastern Partnership in such a way that Ukraine did not fall out completely, in whole or in parts. The most tasty geopolitical piece of post-Soviet Eastern Europe, already tried on by the West for its plans and scenarios, aimed at weakening Russia.
The way out in reconciliation of Ukraine, everything is traditional for the Western political worldview, was seen in the legitimization of the Ukrainian authorities, who came to the leadership of the country after the coup d'état. Presidential elections were the first step in this process. Petr Poroshenko (PAP) was elected to play the role of “stabilizer”. He defeated 25 May already in the first round. And what about swaying and playing democracy when time is tight? ..
The youngest Vanka-vstanka Ukrainian politics. So, the winner of the presidential race was a man who in previous years always became the first among the second, but always was the second in the first, only approaching the “throne” at arm's length, but never taking it. He was always, as they say, in the wings and often got what he wanted. In past years, Poroshenko’s main feature was that he always lacked a little bit.
The PAP is a Vanka-or, if you will, Petka-Vstanka, a tumbler doll of Ukrainian politics, which this year has the opportunity to correct past failures and become the main political figure. He used this opportunity. His main political karma worked - he was always counted on in times of crisis, when it was necessary to combine incompatible interests and seek a compromise where he seemed impossible. Poroshenko, whether he wants to or not, declared himself as an excellent “graduate” of the political school of the country's first president, Leonid Kravchuk, who, as we know, could walk between raindrops, remaining dry.
But what is surprising and characteristic: if you do not count the 49-year-old Oleksandr Turchynov, the acting president of Ukraine, then her fifth president, Poroshenko, is the youngest in this position. At the time of his election, he was only 48 years old, and this supported the general trend of rejuvenation of the highest sinacura in Ukraine. The presidents of Ukraine have consistently become younger: Leonid Kravchuk became president in 57 years, Leonid Kuchma - in 55, Viktor Yushchenko - in 51.
The “revanchist” Viktor Yanukovych, elected head of Ukraine in the 2010 year in the 59 years, stands apart. But, as we remember, the first presidency, which he won five years before, was unconstitutionally taken away as a result of the Orange Revolution of 2004, after the illegal third round of elections, rewriting 2 of one million votes of Yushchenko’s “democrat”. Similarly, unconstitutional, as a result of the February coup of 2014 in February, the second presidency was taken from him. To, then, gave way to "young." More precisely - the next "democrat" and six months ago, unforeseen and unexpected, and now forced "favorite of the West."
Milestones. With the former leaders of the country and with all their current competitors in the PAP race, not only did they compete in their former life, but also collaborated, using them both to grow their political career and to flourish their own business. The result is well known: today Poroshenko, a non-fractional people's deputy and an ordinary member of the committee on European integration, has become president.
In the recent past, PAP - MP from 1998 to 2005 year and from 2006 to 2007 year, and in the Rada was the chairman of the most "fat" committees - budget and finance and banking. From February to September 2005 - Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine. From 2007 to 2012 year - the head of the National Bank and at the same time the Minister of Foreign Affairs (2009-2010), Minister of Economic Development and Trade from March to November 2012.
Poroshenko - a graduate of the prestigious faculty of international relations and international law of the Kiev State University (specialty - "economist-international"). As we can see, in two main specialties he reached a career peak - he was an industry minister in two specialties.
He is a “classic” model of the 90 of the last century, although without a crimson jacket, an oligarch. Therefore, his political and economic interests are always accompanied and glorified by the 5 Channel created by him on television - a mouthpiece of two ersatz revolutions: the Orange in 2004 and the so-called Euromaidan in 2013-2014. The channel consistently, even if it did not bring visible dividends, made Peter Alekseevich a figure prominent, visible and in demand in Ukrainian politics. After the victory in the presidential election of 25 in May, he said that he would not sell the “5 channel” - “a horn” is always needed.
PAP is a billionaire and, according to Forbes, in February 2013 took the fifth place among Ukrainian rich with a fortune of 1,8 billion dollars. He is the founder and honorary president of the Ukrprominvest concern, the "chocolate king" of Ukraine. His business empire, I recall, includes the corporation Roschen (Kiev, Vinnitsa, Mariupol and Kremenchug confectionery factories), Lipetsk factory Linkof (Russia), Klaipeda confectionery factory Klaipedos Conditerija (Lithuania).
Its positions are also strong in the automotive industry (production of VAZ cars, Hyundai, Kia, buses and trucks of Cherkassy Bus OJSC, Lutsk Automobile Plant of Bogdan Corporation), shipbuilding (Leninskaya Kuznitsa Plant), juice production, beer, kvass, groceries (Rіdna Marka Corporation), agricultural production (Agroprodinvest LLC, Podillya CJSC, Kryzhopol and Pogrebishchensky sugar plants, Novofastovskoye agro-industrial group, Zorya Podolia PC, Vinnytsia Grain Products Combine No. XXUMX) and dd
Some of these assets have already been “eaten” by the civil war, quarrels with Russia and other Ukrainian oligarchs, but still “in storage” remains so much that be healthy.
Political career Since joining politics in 1998 (he became a parliamentarian for the first time), Mr. Poroshenko created the Social Democratic Party (united) with Medvedchuk and faithfully served President Leonid Kuchma. Together with former Prime Minister Mykola Azarov and former Parliament Speaker Volodymyr Rybak, he created the Party of Regions, which they then all “donated” to the well-being of formal President Viktor Yanukovych.
In a break between Kuchma and Yanukovych, the PAP created the Our Ukraine party, together with Yulia Tymoshenko organized the Maidan-2004, brought President Viktor Yushchenko to power, and led an informal group of politicians and businessmen under him, known as "the love of the president's friends." It was then that he actually led the rebellion of "millionaires against billionaires" (this is another essence of the "orange" revolution), and he himself became a billionaire, at times increasing his personal fortune and expanding political influence.
And a couple of months ago, in March of 2014, a month after the coup, the country urgently needed a “stabilizer”, which was to become president. Then the country began slowly but surely to become involved in a civil conflict, developing into an armed civil war using the army for a punitive operation against a part of the Ukrainian people in south-eastern Ukraine. And the West, inspiring, ordering and paying for the next "revolution" and the coup d'etat in Ukraine, chose Petro Poroshenko.
After the “Smotrin” visits to Washington, London and Brussels as part of different teams of “applicants for the mace”, in March 2014-th, four of the country's sociological services (SOCIS, KIIS, Rating and Razumkov Center) showed: then, Petro Poroshenko (PAP) would have won the first round of the presidential race. At the same time ahead of the leader of the party "UDAR" Vitali Klitschko, before the leader of the electoral sympathies of the Ukrainians, almost tripled. For Poroshenko allegedly were ready to cast their votes 24,9% against 8,9% for Klitschko. The leader of the Batkivshchyna party, Yulia Tymoshenko, was already only the third.
That is, the current situation was predetermined and “ordered” already then, and the West in Ukraine, which everyone was convinced of several times, as he plans and says, does so. Vitali Klitschko, with the filing of German Federal Chancellor Angela Merkel, who was previously considered the “faustpatron of Ukrainian politics,” not only refused the presidential election, but also nominated a senior PAP for the presidency on behalf of his “UDAR”. And the president of Ukraine Poroshenko already recognized long before the election. The May 25 vote was a mere formality, a necessary “democratic attribute” for an excuse in the eyes of Western public opinion, still as if believing in democracy.
Problems and difficulties of the fifth president. Internal policy. So, we repeat, the young stabilizer elected on a significant part of it actually came to power in Ukraine. A person who is called upon to calm passions and "sew" a country. And in this capacity he was actually recognized by both friends, and enemies, and competitors. He has already appointed his inauguration to 8-10 of June, so that, without being shelved, he proceeded to the solution of the tasks set for him. And the situation in the country, and customers-bearers.
Will the PAP be able to change something for the better? This is the most important question, the positive answers to which in various areas of Ukrainian life do not yet seem assertive and convincing. First, he hardly agrees peacefully, sorry for the tautology, to bring peace to the Ukrainian house. Having announced his first visit to the Donbass, Poroshenko, nevertheless, is going to continue the antiterrorist operation and only with force to suppress "separatism" and "terrorism" - the desire of residents of Donetsk and Lugansk regions to leave Kiev under the rule. “The antiterrorist operation as it is being carried out now will change dramatically. It will be more efficient, shorter, ”he promised. And he noted that “terrorists” who committed serious crimes have two options: to surrender and sit on the dock or “deal with anti-terrorist units”.
But we can already say that the Donbass militia do a great job with this approach. And appease their power weapons it is possible only by further escalating the punitive military operation, for which Poroshenko still has to obtain the consent of the curators. Vowel or unspoken, it does not matter. But officially and publicly, violence in the southeast is not in the trend of Western politicians and is sharply negatively judged and condemned in Russia. Do not take this Poroshenko unlikely. He already promises Donbas "a series of laws" that should satisfy him. But for now these are just words.
Secondly, Poroshenko will definitely have problems in achieving the internal Ukrainian oligarchic consensus. Do not forget the two main factors. First: PAP itself is a big oligarch. And as president, he will have to choose how to move: either comply with the common and all proclaimed deoligarchization of Ukrainian life, which has already been declared the most urgent need, or restore the torn down boundaries of his own oligarchic empire.
If Poroshenko, who had zealously defended the interests of his business and invariably incremented it with all authorities and regimes, chooses the second way, he will face the second factor - the interests of other Ukrainian oligarchs. And they are with and. about. President Turchinov entered into a force unprecedented before, in fact having merged state power with his personal property and business interests. Igor Kolomoisky became the governor of the Dnepropetrovsk region and, with the help of a private army and unprecedented cruelty, suppressed the movements of the federalists in the Odessa and Zaporozhye regions, and in fact created a patrimony controlled by him only half the size of most European states. Oligarchs Sergey Taruta and Rinat Akhmetov do not want to lose or give up their business in the Donbas to someone. Hardly agree to share with someone something Viktor Pinchuk and Dmitry Firtash, who has returned to Ukraine, who are already looking at Poroshenko as an ally in solving their problems at the expense of other losing weight "colleagues."
Other “sharks of the Ukrainian business” of lower rank also hid. And Poroshenko will definitely have to somehow interact with them in the process of pereriban property spheres of influence of the "family" - supporters of the deposed Yanukovych. And to remember that it was the inter-oligarchic consensus, directed against the growing exorbitant appetites of the former president’s entourage, that became one of the main reasons for his fall, launching the “euromaidan” mechanism and joining efforts with the West in this matter.
Thirdly, Tymoshenko will speculate and play on the anti-oligarchic sentiments of the people and part of the nationalist politicians brought into the arena on “euromaidan”. This is almost the only chance for her to remain in big politics and not to dissolve in the motley and marginal opposition. In addition, objectively, these sentiments may merge with social protests of wide sections of the population, which are almost inevitable as a result of a further drop in living standards. And it, the fall, is also inevitable in the process of fulfilling the conditions that the IMF put forward to Ukraine in presenting loans. One rise in price is almost twice as high as utility services, “cleaning out” the wallets of 90% of Ukrainians completely what it costs.
Fourthly, Poroshenko’s announced desire to re-elect the Verkhovna Rada this year is unlikely to contribute to the inner peace in Ukraine. But this desire is understandable - this is the demand of the West, which is striving to put an end to Yanukovych, whom Russia still regards as the legitimate president of Ukraine, and give the appearance of legitimacy to the new Ukrainian authorities. Poroshenko’s election is the first stage of this plan. The re-election of parliament and the adoption of a new Constitution are other stages of the same process. However, the election campaign is a double-edged "weapon". On the one hand, it can arouse an already agitated public opinion and deepen the division of the country, if Donbass again refuses to elect its own parliamentarians. However, on the other hand, it can become a distracting factor from the direst socio-economic situation of Ukraine and divert impoverished people from social riots.
Everything in this matter will depend on the flexibility of the presidential line. And Poroshenko’s abilities, which, in words, seems to be also ready for the decentralization of power, giving special status to the Russian language in places of mass residence of Russian and Russian-speaking fellow citizens, respecting their cultural and spiritual traditions and the rights to determine their own lives.
Foreign policy challenges. In foreign policy, Poroshenko will definitely face the need not only to serve the West and work out the advances issued, but also to build relations with Russia. With the West, everything is clear - Poroshenko, as already mentioned above, will almost unequivocally sign the economic part of the Association Agreement with the EU 27 in June of this year. For this, under his leadership, Ukraine promised loans and financial assistance from the IMF, from the United States, and from the European Union. Without them, with the loss of the budget-forming regions of the south-east, Ukraine expects a default in the near future. The West, in order to support its protégé, will simply have to provide this assistance and somehow restructure Ukraine’s enormous and unaffordable external debt (140 billion dollars).
For starters, Poroshenko is going to go to Poland. What it will give specifically is not clear. But it can work on the image of an independent politician. All the presidents of Ukraine traveled either to Moscow, or to Brussels, or to Washington.
It will be more difficult with Russia. Poroshenko has already recognized that it is impossible to solve problems without a northeastern neighbor. “We will negotiate. Russia is our partner. Peace in the east of the country cannot be restored without Russia, ”he said after the vote. However, he said that he continued to consider the Crimea as Ukrainian territory. Moreover, in case of victory, he proposes to create in Ukraine a special ministry that will deal with the affairs of the “temporarily occupied territories”. One task will be assigned to him - the return of the Republic of Crimea to Ukraine "by means of international documents."
Special piquancy to the problem is attached to the fact that Poroshenko’s such obstinacy in the Crimean issue is supported by President Obama. “We also continue to support the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine, we condemn and reject Russia's occupation and attempt to annex the Crimea, and, as before, we consider it our duty to work with Ukraine and other partners to find a peaceful resolution of the conflict,” the US President assured. And the opinion of the leaders of this country in Ukraine is not accepted not to listen. It has always been this way, and now it is so special.
But Ukraine is still a European country. And Europe, too, of the type sets its own tasks before it. The Secretary General of the Council of Europe, Jagland, has already outlined his vision of Ukraine: “I believe that the new president will act decisively to restore peace and democracy in the state. He can count on the Council of Europe, which will continue to support Ukraine on the path of reforms, in particular reforms of the Constitution. ... Full respect for democracy, human rights and the rule of law is the only way to guarantee the Ukrainian people prosperity and a peaceful future for their country. "
These are good goals. And Poroshenko is well aware. As president. He must, in principle, understand this as the father of four children, for whom, with such a position of the pope, Ukraine must now be home. Without any exaggeration and exaggeration. But, as often happens, understanding alone may not be enough ...
... Earlier, in the "old" life, many of Poroshenko’s successes were associated with his two amazing qualities. On the one hand, this is the ability to be at the right time in the right place and to give the shoulder to the right person. On the other - a unique ability to fall down in time, go into the shadows and, most importantly, in time to emerge. Now Pyotr Alekseevich has a “maneuver” extremely narrowed down - he can either keep himself afloat and save his country, or not go into the shadows, and drown with it ...