Military Review

Does Russia use economic chances?

11
The Federal State Statistics Service (Gosstat) cites data indicating that unemployment is declining in Russia. The indicators of the end of last year in terms of unemployment were found at the level of 5,6% of the number of the so-called economically active population; by the beginning of May, these figures dropped to 5,3%. If we start from the data of the same Gosstat on the economically active population, this number at the end of April amounted to about 75 million people. Therefore, the number of unemployed in Russia at the beginning of May 2014 of the year - 3,975 million.


Does Russia use economic chances?


The tendency seems to be positive, however, it’s still far from working cloudlessness in Russia. The main reason, let's say, pessimism in this regard is related to the imbalance of the labor market. One of the most popular sites specializing in the job market and research of this market, Adzuna, which has its own representative office in Russia, tells that almost every fifth Russian vacancy is a place in the trading system. In other words, the market requires even more sellers, merchandisers, cashiers and other representatives of the trade sector. And it is this component that confidently takes the first place in terms of the provision of jobs. Endless rows of shops, boutiques, super and hypermarkets, sales, stalls, stalls and kiosks - this is a real trading empire that gives more and more impetus to production, in the volume of which Russian production still takes, alas, far from leading positions.

Vacancies of such a plan are very actively filled, and the bulk is observed rotation: when the same people “migrate” to outlets, either not wanting to leave the sphere of trade, or simply not having any other skills to change their work orientation.
It would seem, so what? The main thing is that Russians have become more actively employed, employment opportunities are available, and therefore it’s strange to discuss the nature of work at a time when in Greece or Spain the unemployment rate exceeds 20 or even 30%. But by and large the discussion of such a topic does not look strange.

The main problem related to the bias of the Russian labor market towards trade in mainly foreign goods is that this bias continues to grow, as the market continues to grow in dependence on close contacts with foreign suppliers of goods and services. All this did not look like a special problem until the moment when our country heard the word “sanctions”. These same sanctions, which the “friend Barak” decided to write out to us with his singers, although they do not look tough in appearance, they also have a ticking time bomb.

If a number of foreign countries imposes a ban on the supply of this or that equipment to Russia, dual-use goods and technologies, then in the end this cannot but lead to an increase in unemployment in Russia and a fall in the economy. The market dictates the formula: if the supply volumes fall, the demand for personnel “tied” to the use, operation or subsequent sale of goods within such supplies will also fall.

If you call a spade a spade, the main thing that today helps Russia relieve the “packages of Western sanctions” relatively painlessly and not slip into the mode of increasing unemployment is the tremendous interest of foreign companies in the Russian market, in the solvency of Russian citizens. The intertwining of business interests has reached a point at which any attempt at economic pressure leads to another wave of crisis, capable of sweeping around the world.

This suggests that today Russia lives, in fact, in a paradoxical situation: on the one hand there is a huge dependence on the supply of foreign goods, on the other hand - the security of the labor market, which stimulates the development of its own economy precisely within the framework of such dependence. That is, a decrease in import volumes will immediately strike a blow at the enormously expanded trade area and lead to massive reductions.

In such a situation, the first thing that comes to mind is domestic government economists (judging by their own speeches) - “touch nothing”. Like, let's wait - Western politicians will soon listen to the opinion of the Western business community, and therefore they will bring everything back to normal, forgetting both the sanctions and their premises. Expectant position with the growing ruble (played almost 10% of the dollar and the same amount of the euro over the last 3-4 of the week), very expensive oil and a gas contract with China, indeed, it seems the most profitable.
But is it necessary to unequivocally reject the situation in which Western "friends" may not turn on the mind? Should we always and in everything rely on the interests of foreign capital in Russia, especially given the fact that, to put it mildly, Russian capital abroad is also a lot?

The current relatively favorable situation both in the labor market and in the field of hydrocarbon prices should definitely be used to raise the level of domestic production: from agriculture and light industry to heavy metallurgy and high technologies, to revise the policy of investing own capital in foreign economies. The competition is fierce, but as long as the West is busy with its chugs, hotelkeepers and nozzles in Ukraine, while the White House is still thinking how to put pressure on the business circles of the United States and Europe, so that they in turn “teach the lesson of Russia”, you should not miss the moment . Use the situation to achieve real economic growth, to diversify the labor market, to increase the percentage of industrial and high-precision production in its own economy.
Ideas are commonplace, but when, if not now, embody them? .. There is an opinion that if this opportunity is missed today, Russia will continue to rely on the forces of heaven every time in terms of reducing the effects of sanctions or any other crisis strikes, providing control levers its financial and economic system in the wrong hands.

It would be nice to learn from the Eastern partners, who have long realized that in any case it is better to go forward with your feet than to stand on the sidelines and wait for the occasional Western economic "altruist" to give you a lift. After all, it also happens that the one who was waiting for him was simply being demolished at full speed (hello to Ukraine) ...
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  1. Rostovchanin
    Rostovchanin 26 May 2014 09: 39
    +6
    Citizens !!! Yes, I’m happy to go to a new construction site of the century !!! I can be a mechanical engineer, a driver, a truck crane driver, a tractor driver and I have all the certificates and work experience !!! Give a job with a normal salary !!! And then managers and lawyers!
  2. Nayhas
    Nayhas 26 May 2014 10: 18
    +2
    Does Russia use economic chances?

    Honestly, there’s no real chance. How to boost the economy? The population is heavily credited, and therefore trade is falling, and with it the labor market. Prices are rising, something like no one notices or pretends not to notice. Everyone is yelling happily that China will save us, but why did they get all this? Gazprom signed a difficult contract for itself, amid a reduction in gas exports to Europe, this is certainly a plus, but the price is lower, and the pipe needs to be built, and this is the cost ... At whose expense will it be compensated? Due to the domestic consumer, so we should expect an increase in gas prices. Gazprom will not pay MET for gas to China, minus the treasury.
    China has already begun to hint what it wants from Russia, at the St. Petersburg Economic Forum, Vice President of the PRC Li Yuanchao said that Russia has gigantic land resources, but it does not have enough people to master them independently. Speaking directly, China wants what has broken in Ukraine and there will be no more jobs for Russians, the Chinese themselves will cope. So that...
  3. Monster_Fat
    Monster_Fat 26 May 2014 10: 30
    +10
    Employment problems in Russia are much deeper than officially accepted. Official "statistics" are false from beginning to end - they are "sucked from the finger" and do not take into account the real situation in the labor market. The fact is that most of the unemployed in Russia are not registered in the "employment services" because there is simply no point in going there, going to be celebrated there, glad of that scanty "benefit" - there are no fools, and the "vacancies" that are offered there are just a mockery ... Everyone knows perfectly well that employees of the "employment services" offer only the most "lame" vacancies, hiding more or less normal ones in order to bargain. Yes, and such vacancies, "one or two, and miscalculated." But this is only one of the most insignificant aspects of the labor problem in Russia. Other problems are more serious: Firstly: low wages of scientific, engineering and working specialties. This problem is caused by the following factors: 1) the outflow of money from the real sector of production to the "virtual" service sector. That is, money is "spinning" not in the production sphere, but in the service sphere - banking, commercial, legal, etc. 2) the complexity of access for the production sector to "real" money in comparison with the ease of such access in the service sector. 3) the high financial and production load of the manufacturing sector, associated with the need to pay numerous taxes and fees for recycling, environmental protection measures, the need to maintain and upgrade expensive production assets, etc. in comparison with the service sectors, which either do not require these expenses or they are minimal. 4) a high demand for professionalism in the manufacturing sector, as lack of professionalism can lead to serious accidents and disasters, which the service sector is completely deprived of, etc. The second important factor is working conditions in Russia. Labor itself has become in Russia something obscene, shameful. Labor has replaced the concept of "making money", because in the country there is a situation where honest work cannot bring large incomes, only corruption schemes, "drinking", "cutting", "imitation of activity", etc., bring large incomes. Labor itself in Russia is becoming increasingly slavish and powerless, none of the so-called. entrepreneurs and heads of production facilities, companies nowhere do not even fulfill those pitiful crumbs of labor law that remained in the "Labor Code". There is practically no place for an 8-hour working day, all hard workers "plow" for 10-12, or even 16 hours for the same salary, that is, they bring their "employers" additional profit of 30-50-100%. In private companies, there is generally no concept of "holidays", "weekends", "sick leave", "vacation", etc. Attitude to engineers and workers in the so-called. "entrepreneurs" and leaders according to a simple formula - "Stop there, come here! No? Fuck nah ...! " Almost everywhere (even in the state. institutions), all employees in companies work under "gray" contracts, that is, they receive part of their salaries in envelopes, which greatly reduces subsequent pensions, compensation, etc. (in state institutions, the role of salary in envelopes is performed, the so-called. "self-financing", "loan", "internal credit", etc.).
    1. Roland
      Roland 26 May 2014 13: 30
      0
      Not in the eyebrow, but in the eye! You are right from A to Z!
  4. Nayhas
    Nayhas 26 May 2014 11: 04
    +3
    Quote: Monster_Fat
    Labor itself in Russia is becoming more and more slave and powerless - none of the so-called. entrepreneurs and heads of production facilities, companies nowhere do not even fulfill those pitiful crumbs of labor law that remained in the Labor Code.

    Because we have the very terry capitalism which stage the civilized world went through in the last century. By the way, thanks in large part to the USSR. The trade union movement in Russia is completely absent, the government is crushing and will crush it everywhere equating it to terrorism because it is an attempt on power, because the fusion of power and the oligarchs reaches absolute values. So you can forget about the rights of workers ...
    1. Monster_Fat
      Monster_Fat 26 May 2014 11: 20
      +1
      I absolutely agree with you. Putin himself recently said: "The sanctions were imposed against MY FRIENDS ...". This said everything, absolutely, that is, as you say, the merging of the authorities and the oligarchs "on the face".
  5. Isum
    Isum 26 May 2014 12: 15
    0
    regular review
  6. Prutkov
    Prutkov 26 May 2014 12: 52
    +1
    Sanctions also need to be approached creatively. Suppose, to oblige the same McDonald's, that the products in restaurants were sold only, grown, not packaged in Russia. So much for the development of our own agriculture.
  7. ddd1975
    ddd1975 26 May 2014 14: 07
    +1
    The gas contract has been signed ... there is an advance payment for the infrastructure - Putin said bluntly: "... this will help complete the gasification of Siberia ... it will tie it into a common node." So he will develop industry in Siberia. Or you propose again to throw everything to the west of the country and develop industry on coal. The foundation is being laid for the growth of industry - strategically right, in the center of the country. There will be new jobs for you. That again the cackling ... turn on the brains and with faith in our future forward.
  8. sv68
    sv68 26 May 2014 14: 10
    +2
    RUSSIA HAS A GIANT ECONOMIC POTENTIAL AND A CHRONIC REDUCTION TO DEVELOP THE INDIVIDUALLY PRODUCING COMPONENT OF THE ECONOMY-MACHINE-BUILDING, INSTRUMENT-MAKING, MACHINE-BUILDING, METALLURGY ... LIST
    L CAN BE LONG. Till then, WE DO NOT BEGIN TO FILL YOUR FACTORIES WITH YOURSELF, RUSSIAN EQUIPMENT, DO NOT START THE ECONOMY AND WILL BE A RAW MATERIAL APPENDIX WITH AN UNMETABLE FACTORY AND A HIGH-DEFERENCE
  9. Signaller
    Signaller 26 May 2014 16: 23
    -1
    If you carry the NEP of the 90s and at the same time begin to rebuild your industry with the help of five-year plans, then it is quite possible to regain your lost positions in five or seven years.
    The generation of traders is not intended for anything other than trade. Therefore, it is necessary, as the saying goes, "do not wash so with a carrot" to force people to go to the machine or drawing board. And the main thing is to study, study, and study again. No, not that V.I. Lenin said - Communism. No. Learn to create, not trade. History lessons to help us.
  10. Turkir
    Turkir 26 May 2014 21: 35
    0
    News - Montenegro, Iceland, Norway, Albania and Liechtenstein have joined the EU sanctions against Russia, the statement said on behalf of EU diplomat Catherine Ashton.
    -----------
    I am especially "touched" in this list by Montenegro.
    "Your shirt is closer to your body"?
    Well, well.
  11. siberalt
    siberalt 27 May 2014 00: 01
    +4
    Made laugh! A saleswoman at a kiosk for 14 hours without a vacation for 4-5 thousand per month is employment. A teacher for 5-6 thousand - also employment. Hundreds of ghost towns living at the expense of pensioners whose funds they sell for their own (petty speculation business) children are also employed. Etc. Statistics, damn it. I wonder if she takes into account thieves in life. They are also employed and do not want to go to the exchange. Complete mediation. There are three of them for the ruble of a living allowance from the state. And all are employed.
  12. kartalovkolya
    kartalovkolya 11 June 2014 16: 53
    0
    At a time when the Russians are "jammed" in the South-East with Grads, the army of migrant workers from the trap is hammering normal grandmothers in our north! The height of hypocrisy is chatter about unemployment in Russia: yes, gentlemen, just close the right of entry to Russia to those whose relatives and friends are killing our people in Donbass! about discounts for the Russian people, but we deeply don’t give a damn about the state of the Ukrainian economy, which is what they wanted and got! Cut off the gas immediately. Since when does the buyer (and even more so a malicious defaulter) dictate conditions to the seller! It's time to put you in your place. Who gave the right to squander what does not belong to you: The President clearly said that Kiev has no grounds for demanding discounts, and what are you doing? Gazprom officials, together with the Minister of Energy, should be immediately brought to justice! You can rob your people and drive gas to Europe at the expense of them, which means you are traitors to the Motherland and the People, damn you MANCURT!