In the materials of Rosstat, it is stated that over four months, the production volumes in the processing industries increased by 2,8%, and in April - by almost 4%. In the mining segment, industrial production in January-April increased by 0,9%. At the same time, the sector of production and distribution of electricity, gas and water showed a negative trend - 3,3% by 2013 year. Note that in January-April 2013, industrial production in the country fell by 0,6%.
Coal production in the first four months of this year amounted to 113 million tons, which is 3,2% less than the result of the same period last year. Oil production, including gas condensate, amounted to 173 million tons, an increase of 2% by year 2013. Gas production fell by 3,5% to 209 billion cubic meters. Electricity production decreased by 2,3% to 374 billion kWh. Passenger car production decreased by 2,9% to 613 thousand.
As for the further dynamics of industrial production, according to the results of the second quarter, the Ministry of Economic Development predicts growth of 0,7%, plus 1,1% is expected in the third quarter, plus 1% in the fourth quarter and for the year.
As Dmitriy Zemlyakov, Head of the Business Process Management Department in the FENAN RANEPA production and service, told "NI", in the coming months we can expect growth in economic activity in the services sector and in the export-related sectors. “The weakening of the ruble exchange rate acts favorably for companies operating in foreign markets. With regard to the growth of industrial output in the manufacturing industry, there are large injections of the state in the defense industry. In addition, the factor of import substitution also begins to play its role, when, under conditions of foreign policy tightening and appreciation of imported products, domestic production is gradually rising. Although this trend is still in its embryonic state, ”he explained. According to him, until the end of the year, industrial production will remain in a positive zone. In the summer - thanks to the revitalization of the construction sector, transportation and other segments of the industry, which are affected by the seasonal factor, and in the fall and winter, the import substitution process will gain momentum.
At the same time, Vladimir Salnikov, deputy director of the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term Forecasting (TsMAKP), believes that the basic factors affecting the economic activity in the country, such as a decline in profits of Russian enterprises and an increase in loan rates, play against the growth of industrial production in the country. “In my opinion, by the end of the year, the indicator will remain at the level of the first quarter - about 1% growth. Markets do not grow, enterprises' incomes also do not increase, respectively, there are no reasons for optimism. There is more room for growth in the more distant future, but there is no room for rapid growth in Russia, ”he explained.
According to the “NI” interlocutor, the main drivers of industry growth are industries focused on domestic consumption. “In the manufacturing sector in recent years, the APC has been growing well - food industry significantly adds production volumes. Light industry also until recently increased momentum, thanks to the fight against counterfeit goods. In the plus is the production of non-food consumer goods - furniture, jewelry. In general, industries oriented towards domestic consumer demand do not feel bad at all, ”the expert says. In addition, the production of petroleum products is actively growing, thanks to the expansion of export sales markets, and recently metallurgy joined this, where the lack of supplies from Ukrainian enterprises to Russia played a role.
“At the same time, the power industry does not show positive dynamics, because the energy efficiency policy does not contribute to increasing the production of electricity, and there are no export opportunities in this segment. In the mining sector, in turn, resource constraints are noted - we cannot increase oil production due to the lack of fields ready for development, ”explained Mr. Salnikov.