Military Review

Domestic industry in the first four months of the year came in plus

According to Rosstat, industrial production in Russia in January-April of 2014 increased by 1,4% compared to the same period of 2013 of the year, while the processing industry showed the main increase. The actual results clearly exceeded the expectations of analysts who talked about the recession this year. According to the experts interviewed by the “NI”, the domestic industry can grow stronger thanks to Western sanctions - due to the activation of import substitution. However, experts do not see opportunities to quickly restore the industrial sector.

In the materials of Rosstat, it is stated that over four months, the production volumes in the processing industries increased by 2,8%, and in April - by almost 4%. In the mining segment, industrial production in January-April increased by 0,9%. At the same time, the sector of production and distribution of electricity, gas and water showed a negative trend - 3,3% by 2013 year. Note that in January-April 2013, industrial production in the country fell by 0,6%.

Coal production in the first four months of this year amounted to 113 million tons, which is 3,2% less than the result of the same period last year. Oil production, including gas condensate, amounted to 173 million tons, an increase of 2% by year 2013. Gas production fell by 3,5% to 209 billion cubic meters. Electricity production decreased by 2,3% to 374 billion kWh. Passenger car production decreased by 2,9% to 613 thousand.

As for the further dynamics of industrial production, according to the results of the second quarter, the Ministry of Economic Development predicts growth of 0,7%, plus 1,1% is expected in the third quarter, plus 1% in the fourth quarter and for the year.

As Dmitriy Zemlyakov, Head of the Business Process Management Department in the FENAN RANEPA production and service, told "NI", in the coming months we can expect growth in economic activity in the services sector and in the export-related sectors. “The weakening of the ruble exchange rate acts favorably for companies operating in foreign markets. With regard to the growth of industrial output in the manufacturing industry, there are large injections of the state in the defense industry. In addition, the factor of import substitution also begins to play its role, when, under conditions of foreign policy tightening and appreciation of imported products, domestic production is gradually rising. Although this trend is still in its embryonic state, ”he explained. According to him, until the end of the year, industrial production will remain in a positive zone. In the summer - thanks to the revitalization of the construction sector, transportation and other segments of the industry, which are affected by the seasonal factor, and in the fall and winter, the import substitution process will gain momentum.

At the same time, Vladimir Salnikov, deputy director of the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term Forecasting (TsMAKP), believes that the basic factors affecting the economic activity in the country, such as a decline in profits of Russian enterprises and an increase in loan rates, play against the growth of industrial production in the country. “In my opinion, by the end of the year, the indicator will remain at the level of the first quarter - about 1% growth. Markets do not grow, enterprises' incomes also do not increase, respectively, there are no reasons for optimism. There is more room for growth in the more distant future, but there is no room for rapid growth in Russia, ”he explained.

According to the “NI” interlocutor, the main drivers of industry growth are industries focused on domestic consumption. “In the manufacturing sector in recent years, the APC has been growing well - food industry significantly adds production volumes. Light industry also until recently increased momentum, thanks to the fight against counterfeit goods. In the plus is the production of non-food consumer goods - furniture, jewelry. In general, industries oriented towards domestic consumer demand do not feel bad at all, ”the expert says. In addition, the production of petroleum products is actively growing, thanks to the expansion of export sales markets, and recently metallurgy joined this, where the lack of supplies from Ukrainian enterprises to Russia played a role.

“At the same time, the power industry does not show positive dynamics, because the energy efficiency policy does not contribute to increasing the production of electricity, and there are no export opportunities in this segment. In the mining sector, in turn, resource constraints are noted - we cannot increase oil production due to the lack of fields ready for development, ”explained Mr. Salnikov.
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  1. mig31
    mig31 24 May 2014 06: 46
    It’s good to pull up the demography ...
    1. tronin.maxim
      tronin.maxim 24 May 2014 06: 48
      Can smart people become ragged ?! what
  2. tronin.maxim
    tronin.maxim 24 May 2014 06: 47
    I don’t look, but sanctions are only pluses!
  3. Alexander Romanov
    Alexander Romanov 24 May 2014 06: 48
    Ha, more often sanctions would be imposed. Obama immediately report laughing
    1. tronin.maxim
      tronin.maxim 24 May 2014 06: 52
      Quote: Alexander Romanov
      Ha, more often sanctions would be imposed. Obama immediately report

      Not yet evening. There they have about 3 packages ready.
      1. Buran
        Buran 24 May 2014 07: 10
        Yeah, the EU requires a ban on the import of caviar, fur and vodka. Well, now we have a growing stock of fish of salmon breeds, a population of fur-bearing animals will rise, well, let the Polish singe gobble up wink
        1. Marine One
          Marine One 24 May 2014 10: 20
          Quote: Buran
          ha, the EU requires a ban on the import of caviar, fur and vodka. Well, now we have a growing stock of fish of salmon breeds, a population of fur-bearing animals will rise, well, let the Polish singe gobble up

          For all these positions, with the exception of caviar (4th place in export), Russia does not even get into the 10 major suppliers to the EU.

          Quote: Buran
          and let the Polish vodka thump

          Bad luck again. Green Mark vodka, former leader Russian the strong alcohol market since the mid-2000s, as well as the popular brands “Cranes” and “Parliament”, are produced by the Russian Alcohol Group, controlled by Polish concern CEDC. smile
        2. avg
          avg 24 May 2014 12: 00
          Quote: Buran
          Yeah, the EU requires a ban on the import of caviar, fur and vodka.

          Lord, are they imposing sanctions on a hangover? fool
  4. Marine One
    Marine One 24 May 2014 09: 49
    The actual results clearly exceeded the expectations of analysts who spoke about the recession this year.

    Zhurnalyugi such zhurnalyugi. How to match expectations according to the results of the unclaimed year with the indicator first quarter? fool The ruble has devalued, hence the growth. And why are they silent about inflation?
  5. Vorodis_vA
    Vorodis_vA 24 May 2014 12: 18
    how much will be 1.4 percent of zero according to what formula, 0 divided by 100 and multiplied by 1,4, or immediately multiplied? Even a fool can understand that the economy needs pieces of paper or numbers. no papers no economy. Let them tell you where inflation comes from. They carry all kinds of nonsense.
  6. svp67
    svp67 24 May 2014 18: 38
    Not everything is so rosy, the sanctions have made some confusion, especially in the financial sphere, precisely with their UNEXPECTIVENESS and the fact that they were applied without warning, but I think this is a very good lesson for us and now the specialists will think over protection measures and, most importantly, will implement them. But the fact that production has risen is a fact. In April, a third more orders were received at the enterprise where my daughter works as a design engineer, and now they have both joys and concerns, but they seem to be coping. The daughter says the workers even showed some enthusiasm. And their company is a real competitor to German factories ... So, we draw conclusions.