Military Review

The inevitability of decay

43
The inevitability of decayRostislav Ishchenko, President of the Center for System Analysis and Forecasting, commented on the latest events in Ukraine on his page on the social network:


Recently, I receive in a personal many messages in the style of "all is lost", "Putin passed all of them", "Donbass merged", "The State Department outplayed all." I answer all those who write at the same time, because I cannot waste time on everyone.

I am not an astrologer, not a fortune teller or an oracle. I used to operate with facts. What do the facts say? Firstly, if the Americans in Ukraine would have everything in the openwork, they would not have incited civil war. It would be more effective to use a holistic and united Ukraine as a ram against Russia. The Americans are stirring up a civil war. It means that they do not expect to keep Ukraine united or integral. Romania and Hungary in the open, and Poland so far silently began to look closely at the territories once lost in favor of Ukraine. Leading EU politicians unofficially (but in such a way that it becomes public property) speak about the inevitability of the collapse of Ukraine and about the EU’s readiness to guarantee its Western (only Western) regions. It is easy to understand who is invited to guarantee the rest. The victory of the junta, meanwhile, involves the preservation of territorial integrity. It means that the EU does not count on the victory of the junta. In Washington and Brussels, which is worse for us to assess the situation, they have less information? I do not think.

Secondly, for fourteen and a half years, during which Putin has been in power, I (and in my opinion not only myself, but many domestic and foreign observers) singled out his following features:

1. He does not do anything spontaneously. All his steps are interrelated and calculated. It happens that in the years ahead. This does not mean that Putin and his team do not make mistakes, but they allow them much less than their opponents (and their mistakes are not strategic), and in war, in politics and in chess, as a rule, the one who allows fewer errors, and whose errors are not disastrous.

2. Putin tightly linked his political and personal fate with the revival of Russia's greatness. By nature, he is a man who can bend, retreat, never gives up and never loses sight of his strategic goal. If Putin fights at Stalingrad, this does not mean that he will not enter Berlin.

3. Everyone understands that the loss of Ukraine will mean a fairly rapid destabilization of Russia, too, with a high chance of developing into a catastrophically rapid disintegration of the state. I think that what is clear to all, all the more clear to Putin.

4. Never, without Russian support (not only moral), an uprising in the Donbas would not have happened and would have not become so comprehensive. The fact that there is no evidence of such support does not mean that it was not there, just people know how to work.

5. After Crimea was annexed to Russia, the annexation of the Southeast or the creation of a Russian protectorate there became a military-political inevitability. Military, because by virtue of its geographical location and landscape, Crimea is completely unprotected, without the control of the mainland. In order to simply control the coast suitable for landing large forces along its entire length, clearly excessive forces (at least one hundred thousand people) must be concentrated in the Crimea. And it still won’t help. Only in the twentieth century, Crimea was captured four times in a short time and by smaller or equal troops. In 1920, Frunze threw 120 thousandth Wrangel army into the sea. In 1941, Manstein defeated in the Crimea a group of Soviet troops, numbering from 200 to 350 (according to various sources) thousand people. in 1942, the same Manstein, fighting on two fronts, defeated the Crimean Front on the Kerch Peninsula and the Primorsky Army in Sevastopol. The total number of troops defeated by him is over half a million people. But before that, the Germans could not prevent the Kerch-Feodosia landing operation, the unification of the bridgeheads and the creation of the Crimean Front. Meanwhile, the mentioned defeat by Manstein, which is significantly superior in quantity and quality (in military technology) to the grouping of Soviet troops, if necessary, to fight on two fronts, indicates that this was a first-order military talent. And even he could not prevent the free landing of large forces in the Crimea. Finally, in 1944, the 17th German Army, with a total number of 170-200 thousand people, before which it had been successfully defending itself for almost a year from the Soviet forces in the Kuban many times more, was immediately defeated in Crimea by equal forces of the Red Army immediately after as Soviet troops occupied Northern Tavria. The political inevitability of the destruction of the Ukrainian state is due to the fact that no Kiev regime recognizes the loss of Crimea. So from the international legal point of view, Russia's position will remain vulnerable to historical perspective (Japan has much less reason to claim the South Kuril ridge, and how many problems with it!). But in the event of the disappearance of the modern Ukrainian state, it does not matter at all whether there will be Russian provinces, mandated territories of Russia and the EU or some new state formations - in any case, all this will be created already in a new political reality (with Russian Crimea) and will have to recognize this reality. This means that not only control over the Southeast, but also a trip to Kiev is inevitable (otherwise the junta cannot be driven out).

6. The United States tried to force Russia to take a direct part in the military conflict on the territory of Ukraine. The goal is to drive a wedge between Russia and the EU. It was possible, of course, to spit on it and still send troops, but the geopolitical costs would be extremely high. Putin decided to pursue his goals during the civil war in Ukraine. From the point of view of the interests of the citizens of Ukraine (including mine), this is an extremely unpleasant decision. From the point of view of state interests of Russia - logical. In addition, it is in line with the traditional policy of Putin - he never makes decisions calculated by opponents. It is characterized by the unexpectedness of political moves. The largest contemporary politicians and the most talented experts do not undertake to predict Putin’s moves.

7. In light of the above, with all due respect to the leaders of the resistance of Donbass, I doubt that Putin did not provide for duplicate mechanisms, in case of an unexpected change in the position of Gubarev, Strelkov (someone else) or, for example, the death of one of them or their companions or even all of them. The fate of a superpower, the result of its long-standing policy, cannot depend on one person or a group of people. The result of such an operation, as it is now being conducted in the South-East, should be repeatedly guaranteed. The stakes are too high. There is no place for chance and improvisation. Therefore, the Donbass cannot merge until Putin so decides, and so far Putin clearly has no point in making such a decision.

8. Negotiations with Kiev, Brussels and Washington on a peaceful settlement are not excluded, but for now they are not ready to give Russia what it needs and cannot (as Turchinov would agree with the loss of the Crimea, federalization, bilingualism, neutral status, etc.? his own militants will be killed.) Meanwhile, the gas issue must be resolved before August, otherwise Europe may face an economic and political crisis in the winter, which the EU will not survive. Russia needs the EU not as debris covered by civil war (as Ukraine is now), but as a partner. Therefore, the probability of a military solution to the Ukrainian crisis by attacking the army of the South-East to Kiev is very high. If Kiev is taken, then it must be assumed that Brussels and Washington will be fully negotiable on the demarcation line in Ukraine dividing Russia and the EU (namely the EU, not the US and NATO) along the Ukrainian-Polish border 1939 of the year. In this case, the sovereign Ukrainian state will rather quickly end its formal existence. In the event of developments in any other scenario (for example, the junta managed to keep Kiev), the elimination of Ukrainian statehood will be delayed for a longer period, the EU may face serious problems and even lose the Balkans, but Ukraine will still be eliminated, since it can only exist external financing, and now it will be cheaper to forget about the existing Ukrainian debt, due to the disappearance of the debtor, than to lend further.

9. The patriotic upsurge in Russia and the immediate rise of Putin’s ratings, as a response to effective policies in the Ukrainian direction, will give way to disappointment, irritation and a denial of trust if Putin makes unjustified concessions. Since, until now, the entire vertical of power in Russia and all of Russian stability rests solely on Putin’s authority, Putin’s loss of authority will have disastrous consequences not only for him, but also for the country. Consequently, he cannot emerge from the Ukrainian crisis in a different way, except as a clear winner.

That is, in fact, all the considerations and observations that inspire me with optimism on the strategic resolution of the Ukrainian crisis, but they suggest that blood will still be shed and persuade colleagues to be careful not to bother about it, especially in cities completely controlled by the junta (like , for example, Kiev). And it is generally better, if possible, to look for quieter places. In the context of the geopolitical confrontation of the superpowers, the lone hero does not change anything. Even during the Great Patriotic War, the underground only operated effectively there, where it was connected with Moscow and received centralized instructions.

Once again, I am not a predictor, I may be mistaken, but so far the development of events fits into the logic of the processes and considerations described above. All the rest is emotions caused by the fact that everyone wants to win with a little blood on foreign territory and yesterday, but, unfortunately, this is not always the case. The enemy attacks only when he believes that he is prepared enough to be guaranteed to win, that he is stronger.

And one more thing, do not think that victory is predetermined. The enemy also wants and can win. If our advantage were obvious, he would not attack. Therefore, Putin can make not only pre-calculated, but also forced maneuvers. You and I are not people whom he trusts his secrets, so that we cannot adequately evaluate his actions and motives.

I know two generals in the history of mankind who have never suffered defeats - two Alexandra: Macedonian and Suvorov. Putin may become the third (besides winning the war according to Sun Tzu's maxim: "The best war is the one that has not started"). Or maybe not. Even Bonaparte had not only Borodino (which the Bonapartists still consider him a victory), but also Waterloo, which even they recognize as an absolute and catastrophic defeat. So we hope for the best and try to help Putin. Whoever and how would relate to him, today we are objectively in one trench. And, by the way, of all the theoretically possible (known to me) Supreme Commanders, he is the best.

Thank you for your attention and do not discuss this topic anymore - there is no time. It is possible to return to it if, in the general scenario of political forces and in the course of events, there will be such changes that will require inscribing new facts into the scheme and coordinating them with the existing ones.
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  1. Same lech
    Same lech 21 May 2014 06: 09
    +6
    By nature, he is a man who can bend, retreat, never give up and never lose sight of his strategic goal.


    Judoka in one word.

    Crimea is completely unprotected, without the control of the mainland.

    I absolutely agree with this ... and the further logic of politicians' fuss will inevitably lead to a logical step in protecting Crimea from this threat (this is only a matter of time).

    Ukraine will be liquidated anyway, since it can exist only through external financing,

    I don’t quite agree ... yes, without external support, UKRAINE CANNOT EXIST. but within the boundaries of galaxy’s borders, let them exist (let them boil in their own juice of fascism .. you can always bomb them if you try to arrange a new KhATIN) .
    1. Duke
      Duke 21 May 2014 06: 20
      +3
      Putin can become the third (besides, winning wars in accordance with Sun Tzu's maxim: "The best war is the one that did not start"). Or maybe not.

      Unfortunately, the politician should not be in a hurry.
      1. Same lech
        Same lech 21 May 2014 06: 22
        +4
        Unfortunately, the politician should not rush


        just in time for luck .... a smart politician waits for a rival to make the first move ... as they say, White starts and loses.
        1. seller trucks
          seller trucks 21 May 2014 08: 49
          +1
          "everything is gone," "Putin handed over everyone," "Donbass merged," "the State Department outplayed everyone."


          deja vu? Did something like this happen in February-March or not?
    2. vladimirZ
      vladimirZ 21 May 2014 06: 35
      +4
      Putin decided to achieve his goals during the civil war in Ukraine. (from article)


      And rightly so, one cannot introduce Russia's military forces into conflict. But it is necessary to help the Russian people of New Russia.
      Without the tacit help of Russia, which the fighting people of New Russia would see, it is necessary to do.
      It is difficult for patriots, Russian people against the combined forces of Bandera, the army, the National Guard, the American units of mercenaries.
      We need to help financially, with weapons, specialists, volunteers, help the People's Republics "open the corridor."
      Remember the words of Gaddafi: “The war, if it is not won in Libya, will come to you tomorrow. Get ready for her. Set traps for invaders. You must protect your home. Be one. Strengthen your defense, for they will come to you if they destroy us. ”
      Only the war is already in Ukraine, near Russia.
    3. neri73-r
      neri73-r 21 May 2014 16: 20
      0
      you can always subject them to bombing in the event of attempts to arrange a new Khatyn)


      They arranged Khatyn for us, in Belarus, in a post you apparently had in mind Katyn, which is near Smolensk, so who arranged it and who else has a question, and the scale is also in question !!! hi
  2. Igor39
    Igor39 21 May 2014 06: 18
    +2
    Strange it turns out, Russia, with Ukraine at hand, was unable to bring the pro-Russian government to power, and the United States overseas was able to push and brew porridge at the side of Europe and Russia. The Yankees are probably not as stupid as some people think.
    1. Samaritan
      Samaritan 21 May 2014 06: 28
      0
      How long???
    2. B.T.V.
      B.T.V. 21 May 2014 06: 33
      0
      Russia had to get ahead of the United States and arrange a military coup in January ?!
    3. yulka2980
      yulka2980 21 May 2014 06: 56
      +2
      It’s just that we didn’t need it to such an extent as the United States, because their entire economy rests precisely on the outbreak of wars on foreign territory am
    4. kodxnumx
      kodxnumx 21 May 2014 06: 58
      0
      I think now the time has come to take care of such a thing, the weight of Russia in the world has grown, so that everything changes!
      1. MBA78
        MBA78 21 May 2014 13: 33
        0
        we all now have an unprecedented opportunity to observe - the confrontation - of two superpowers ... with all the poisonous snakes crawling out in our direction in this process (from the west). time gives us the opportunity to find out and evaluate what kind of "unfriendly preparations" were planned by the West and now, let's say, they are beginning to make themselves felt ... whatever one may say, time has connected our world and until everyone shows the other side of the earth it will not let go
    5. Thompson
      Thompson 21 May 2014 12: 30
      0
      Quote: Igor39
      Strange it turns out, Russia, with Ukraine at hand, was unable to bring the pro-Russian government to power, and the United States overseas was able to push and brew porridge at the side of Europe and Russia. The Yankees are probably not as stupid as some people think.

      Not so simple. We were confident in the Ukrainians that they were our brothers, close, kindred, competent, modern. Therefore, we did not touch them, we thought it was enough for them not to succumb to all this. It turned out to seem. Some were sold, others were bought, others are holed up, others are afraid ...
  3. Pitman
    Pitman 21 May 2014 06: 20
    +4
    I absolutely agree !!! Everything is thought out in advance by the GDP and it will not dance to the tune of someone else !!!! Wait and be patient.
  4. Sharikov
    Sharikov 21 May 2014 06: 23
    +15
    I ask a friend from Ukraine: What country are you answering me from today? Says: I don’t know - in the fall it was still Ukraine, in the winter a loony bin for especially violent ones. He spent most of the spring in Banderstat, and now I live in Kolomoyshchina, and all this without leaving a place. I don’t know what this place will be called in the summer.
    1. yushch
      yushch 21 May 2014 22: 34
      0
      My relatives in Kiev say that they have everything unchanged. They do not answer other questions, they take the conversation aside. They are afraid that they are listening to the phone, the call is from Russia, and they listen to all Russian calls along the way.
  5. NEXUS
    NEXUS 21 May 2014 06: 30
    +5
    everything is very carefully displayed and folded on the shelves ... Already all analysts in the world have recognized that Putin is a grandmaster in a political game. But throughout the whole time, I have not been left feeling that these events with both Crimea and Ukraine as a whole have been a long time ago thought-out and calculated steps of both the West and Moscow. There will be a redraw of the world. And Russia, as a state declaring its strength and significance, will participate in this section. And Western sanctions are only tools for future bargaining with Russia ... and sanctions will be accumulate. Something noticeably harmful to I’m Europe’s unable to do Russia and everyone understands this ... and the United States is not the main opponent in this game. McCain and Obama are bald-headed women who are pulled by strings of this world. And Putin, I’m sure, understands perfectly well whose interests he encountered he and Russia as a whole ... But I think that the game will be in favor of the GDP, because the enemy is calculated and Putin is not. Trust me, as a chess board, this is a decisive factor in the game
    1. jura61
      jura61 21 May 2014 10: 11
      +1
      When Putin spoke with the country on April 17, in my opinion, he himself admitted that the situation with Crimea was not planned in advance, but as a result of the actions of our "partners."
  6. Cormorants
    Cormorants 21 May 2014 06: 32
    +2
    Yes, it’s for sure that Putin cannot lose this game. Good luck to GDP and Co.!
  7. mig31
    mig31 21 May 2014 06: 34
    +1
    To lead the state and be supreme - do not drive with your hands, it’s not EU and NATO, where you have lost a dozen states and are trying to dictate your will to the rest of the world, and Russia has that bone in its throat, Russia of today and in its past- Mind, Honor and Conscience. So no panic ...
    1. varov14
      varov14 21 May 2014 07: 09
      +1
      “Meanwhile, the gas issue must be resolved before August, otherwise Europe may face an economic and political crisis in winter, which the EU will no longer survive. Russia needs the EU not as a ruin in a civil war (like Ukraine is now), but as a partner. "----- Ruins may not be necessary, but a good leaven will not hurt to wander properly, sometimes you can throw your partner a little, so as not to relax and experience all the charm of" partnership "on your own skin. Otherwise, all "partnership" is only at our gates.
  8. samotlor
    samotlor 21 May 2014 06: 49
    +2
    Quote: Igor39
    Strange it turns out, Russia, with Ukraine at hand, was unable to bring the pro-Russian government to power, and the United States overseas was able to push and brew porridge at the side of Europe and Russia. The Yankees are probably not as stupid as some people think.
    They nurtured Ukrainian. Politicians in their territory, in the United States
  9. igor_m_p
    igor_m_p 21 May 2014 06: 53
    +1
    Never, without Russian support (not only moral support) would an uprising in the Donbas not happen and acquire such a comprehensive character. The fact that there is no evidence of such support does not mean that it was not there, just people know how to work.


    Gold words. To me personally, it is also extremely doubtful that our people are not there.
  10. yulka2980
    yulka2980 21 May 2014 06: 53
    +2
    That's it! We must trust our president! I am not campaigning, but not every day will be such a holiday as the annexation of Crimea! We must calm down and wait! Remember what happened under Yeltsin, compare and then everything will fall into place. We all feel sorry for the civilians East of Ukraine, but the situation has developed in such a way that we cannot help them openly ... winked
  11. kodxnumx
    kodxnumx 21 May 2014 06: 55
    +1
    Pounds, GDP worthy Prizedite RUSSIA! +
  12. Pitman
    Pitman 21 May 2014 06: 56
    +2
    It looks like a train, the same stubborn
    On rails forward and not a meter back.
    Walks through life with a firm gait
    Doesn't like antics an empty masquerade.

    Goes directly to the goal
    With congenital anger, with foam at the mouth.
    He’s tired of empty forecasts,
    Vanity disgusts on a plain glade.

    Tightened by itself, always like a spring,
    Swift lunge - get the result,
    Do not spoil yourself with the glamor of sex -
    Strong Russia is such a candidate!
  13. sledge
    sledge 21 May 2014 07: 03
    0
    I liked the article.
  14. Revolver
    Revolver 21 May 2014 07: 06
    +2
    Brussels and Washington will be quite capable of negotiating a demarcation line in Ukraine that separates the areas of responsibility of Russia and the EU (namely, the EU, not the US and NATO) along the Ukrainian-Polish border of 1939.
    Stalin probably would not have agreed with this - was it in vain that he annexed these lands in 1939? But in the absence of Stalin, VVP is indeed the best candidate for Supreme Commander available. So Ukraine will be divided. At least for a while. Will Western Ukraine become a "non-settlement" Galicia within the EU, will it join Poland, or, according to old memory, willabout hungaryii - see. Or maybe the Riflemen’s BMD and museum T-34-85 have enough ammunition and fuel to continue throwing right up to the Polish border without stopping in Kiev?
  15. VNP1958PVN
    VNP1958PVN 21 May 2014 07: 07
    0
    Hope dies last - yes!
  16. Enot-poloskun
    Enot-poloskun 21 May 2014 07: 09
    0
    That's right!

    I agree with the author of the article.

    There is nothing to introduce our army.

    Let the people's liberation army of Donbass and the Southeast liberate Kiev.

    I am for the following scheme:

    1) Crimea as part of Russia.

    2) South-East (Novorossia) - the Russian protectorate, in 5-10 years it will become part of Russia.

    The Bolsheviks, by the way, worked out this scheme with the Far Eastern Republic (FER).

    3) As an option, Odessa with Transnistria is an independent territorial entity under the Russian protectorate.
    1. Revolver
      Revolver 21 May 2014 18: 29
      0
      Quote: Enot-poloskun
      As an option, Odessa and Transnistria are an independent territorial entity under the Russian protectorate.
      Odessa is a free city. The dream of "pike vests". lol
      1. Cristall
        Cristall 22 May 2014 00: 28
        0
        Quote: Nagan
        Quote: Enot-poloskun
        As an option, Odessa and Transnistria are an independent territorial entity under the Russian protectorate.
        Odessa is a free city. Dream of "pike vests"

        given the specifics of Odessa - well, in the full sense, it cannot be free. It is a transport and port hub ... on loose bread and a bunch of borders - you will not bargain much ...
  17. Old Siberian
    Old Siberian 21 May 2014 07: 14
    0
    Haste it is simply necessary when catching fleas, and in politics you have to hurry slowly.
  18. RUSSIA
    RUSSIA 21 May 2014 07: 20
    +1
    Separately, it is worth noting that it is ridiculous to read about Russian volunteers in the Crimea or the Donbas characteristics like the "ultra-right militants" that they are awarded on some nationalist Russian sites. Where do they have racism, neo-Nazism, all the other necessary signs of ultra-right movements? Under the flags with the Celtic cross and the “white brothers” from neo-Nazi groups, formations like C14 and the like, close to the “Right Sector”, are fighting. As for nationalism, the question here is complicated - for nationalism can be different. There is nationalism precisely of the racist plan with characteristic skinheads (which we did not see among the volunteers), but there is the sovereign-cultural plan, in which the center is not the “white race”, but “Big Russia”, the Russian ethnocultural space within close borders to the 1914th and 1991th years. Such a sovereign national Russian consciousness, of course, among the Cossacks and others who traveled to (then still) Ukraine.

    And another noteworthy moment is the picture in the account of one of such volunteers on the social network, where there are two hands in a fraternal handshake: one in the colors of the imperial flag of Tsarist Russia, popular among nationalists, the other in red with a hammer and sickle. The fully thought-out and complete synthesis of such ideas was represented by Limonov’s, but many volunteers simply followed it in practice, not particularly theorizing, so the leftists (from the Communist Party, “Borotba” and simply “Soviet people” their ideological guidelines), and Russian nationalists, without conflicting with each other.
  19. 11111mail.ru
    11111mail.ru 21 May 2014 07: 21
    0
    The inevitability of disintegration ... "The best war is the one that has not begun"

    We approve, sir, only it would be desirable without a war ...; GAS, gas, gas; prepayment, prepayment, prepayment. Demanding the return of debts for gas supplies and conducting exercises at the borders of the "nezalezhnoy". Overcoming the sound barrier by airplanes near the Ukrainian border with the intensification of the actions of the pravosek people near Slavyansk and Kramatorsk.
  20. KC4E
    KC4E 21 May 2014 07: 23
    0
    From the beginning of 2014 to the present day, all events clearly show that Russia has begun to "rise from its knees," after 22 years of humiliation.
  21. pink
    pink 21 May 2014 07: 27
    0
    I agree with the article in its entirety.
  22. Ruswolf
    Ruswolf 21 May 2014 07: 28
    +1
    Well said!
    And about the lack of protection of the Crimea ... so it can play into the hands.
    There is a basis for the introduction of additional forces, with a justification - now our justification - in view of the conduct of military operations by Kiev in the vicinity of the Russian borders! And to have, hypothetically, in your rear, a strong grouping of your neighbor, this is not good! Here already begins a hysterical panic. And in such situations the most irreparable mistakes are made.
    If I understood Moscow, this is a game of nerves in the form of expectant tactics, to force an opponent to make a mistake! In this case, Russia acts as a predator!
  23. RUSSIA
    RUSSIA 21 May 2014 07: 28
    +1
    WE WILL WIN AS OUR SAID !!!!!! THE RICHER FROM SLAVYANSK !!!!! GLORY TO RUSSIA!!!!
  24. saag
    saag 21 May 2014 07: 31
    0
    “Everyone understands that the loss of Ukraine will mean a fairly rapid destabilization of Russia as well, with a high chance of developing into a catastrophically rapid disintegration of the state. I think that what is clear to everyone is all the more clear to Putin.”
    Yeah, winter in Russia, as always, comes suddenly
    "4. Never, without Russian support (not only moral), the uprising in Donbass would not have happened and would not have acquired such an all-encompassing character. The fact that there is no evidence of such support does not mean that it was not there, people just know how to work."
    If there was one, then Strelkov would have no problems with personnel
    "Therefore, the likelihood of a military solution to the Ukrainian crisis by attacking Kiev by the army of the South-East is very high."
    There is no such army, an article from the category "Everything will be fine, to calm the electorate and not to be overcome by any thoughts.
  25. mamont5
    mamont5 21 May 2014 07: 42
    +1
    Well, everything is correct and logical. So we are waiting for unexpected and illogical acts of GDP. We hope that the victory will be ours and NATO and others like him will wash and fall apart.
  26. Gagarin
    Gagarin 21 May 2014 08: 29
    +1
    EXCELLENT ARTICLE!
    EVERYTHING IS EXTREMELY ARGUMENTED!
    A PLUS!!!
  27. Uncle lee
    Uncle lee 21 May 2014 08: 48
    +5
    As Gaidar's hero said: "We would have to stand for a day, but hold out for the night!" - And there the Red Army will do!
  28. Goha
    Goha 21 May 2014 09: 18
    0
    Something Obama has not heard lately. Was it sick?
    1. MBA78
      MBA78 21 May 2014 13: 43
      0
      masons in the circus drift
  29. marder4
    marder4 21 May 2014 10: 06
    0
    paragraph 4 "Never, without Russian support (not only moral), the uprising in Donbass would not have happened and would not have acquired such an all-encompassing character. The fact that there is no evidence of such support does not mean that it did not exist, people just know how to work." - I completely agree with this, but point 8 raises certain doubts ...
    but overall the article is very interesting
  30. Elena
    Elena 21 May 2014 10: 51
    0
    Strannoje 4uvstvo voznikajet posle pro4tenija etoj statji. Na kogo ona rass4itana, na analitikov xunti i na Zapad? Xo4et li avtor pojasnit im, sto i kak budet delat Rossija, i kto kogo budet slivat? Donbass vojuet za svoju svobodu, svobodu ot faschizma, svobodu ot xunti, svobodi ot sili deneg i korrupzii na vsex urovnax. Etu borbu podderschivajut pravoslavnije vsego mira! I mi s volnenijem nabludaem za liderami soprotivlenija, kotorije muschestvenno vsali na seba otvetstvennost vesti narod! Vdrug mi uvideli kakimi muschestvennimi, silnimi, patriotischnimi i umnimi ludmi polna UrkrainA! No v etom i sila pravoslavija - ponimanije vaschnosti kaschdogo individuuma i ego nezamenaemosti. Ludi ne peschki, i ja ne dumaju sto Vladimir Vladimirovitsch Putin ili ktoto drugoj v pravitelstve soglasni s rassmotrenijem ludej kak shepki. Ja dumaju, serdze kaschdogo russkogo razrivajetza ot boli pre soobshenija ob ubijstve naschix bratjev! K soschaleniju est mirovije pravila igri. Eto opasnaja igra. Posmotrite na Egipt, Liviju, Irak ... Sto s nimi stalo. Vosmoschno sej4as net vosmoschnosti vvedenija vojsk, stobi predotvratit bolscheje zlo (vvedenije v otvet vojsk NATO) is nimi vo mnogo raz bolschije ubijstva russkogo i ukrainskogo naroda. Zada4a jasna, soprotivlenije svoimi silami. I spasibo vidajushimsa ludam Donbassa, kak prostim opol4enzam tak i rukovodstvu za ix muschestvo!
  31. 14evgen
    14evgen 21 May 2014 11: 09
    0
    I agree with the author! Recent media reports about the transfer of additional equipment by the Ukrainian army (most likely the last movable one) to Lugansk, Donetsk and suggests that soon this equipment will be handed over (handed over, captured, no matter what it is called) to the liberation army of the South-East of Ukraine. Which subsequently will move to Kiev, not meeting any resistance.
    1. Elena
      Elena 21 May 2014 11: 20
      0
      Armiju i perekinuli na Vostok podalsche ot Kijeva iz opasenij Putscha !!! Tschem dalsche tem lutsche is nadeschdoj sto Armija i soprotivlenije vzaimno drug druga nejtralizujet. Vot klassno budet, esli ix rastschötu poletat praxom!
  32. oxotnuk86
    oxotnuk86 21 May 2014 16: 09
    0
    The right article helps you think.