Putin was blown away. What's next? Nothing good
So, obviously: the Ukrainian adventure has failed. Kashin correctly writes that Putin was in a chess situation of zugzwang, when any move leads to a deterioration of position. But now it's his turn to go.
He will not invade Ukraine if he does not want to get a partisan war and a new Afghanistan, for the West will definitely arm the Ukrainians. He cannot refuse to recognize the Donetsk-Lugansk Republic, since this contradicts his entire political strategy - what kind of a defender of the “Russian world” after that? To admit and not to invade is all the more impossible for the same reasons, plus the threat of serious economic sanctions.
Most likely, he will choose the second option - non-recognition as the lesser of the three evils. Dry residue: I got the Crimea and made a rogue state out of Russia. The people are changeable: the political capital, which he received through the annexation of the Crimea, would quickly disappear, because he was frightened and handed over the Donetsk-Lugansk brothers to Banderovites. In addition, the Americans, following Churchill’s apt expression, "always do the right thing after they try everything else." In this case, they seriously attended to lower energy prices, which, in combination with sanctions, would collapse the Russian economy in three or four years.
But you shouldn’t gloat over Putin’s fiasco, because it’s not a step closer to the end of his regime. Rather the opposite.
This regime, as it should now be clear to everyone, will not go away democratically. He, as the late Berezovsky said, can only be overthrown - either as a result of a popular revolution or through a palace coup. Accordingly, in order to maintain self-preservation, the regime needs to control two forces: a people dissatisfied with poverty and corruption, and an elite who, as a result of the Ukrainian adventure, were cut off from Europe.
A serious political failure only reinforces the need for such control.
Let us recall how Putin’s predecessors acted in situations of political fiasco: they strengthened the regime of personal power, increased brainwashing, changed the old, well-fed elite to a new, hungry one, and unleashed repression as a preventive measure.
When Stalin collapsed with collectivization, and instead of economic recovery, he got famine, the party elite became the main threat to him. What did he do? Unleashed the Great Terror. Chairman Mao, when the Big Leap failed with the collapse, gave a Cultural Revolution.
So is Putin, whose Ukrainian project has become a Pyrrhic victory. Facing the prospect of economic decline and dissatisfaction among the owners of offshore holdings, he can make only one move - Stalin. This does not mean that he will arrange mass terror, but he undoubtedly must increase the level of propaganda, fear in society and the cult of his personality by an order of magnitude. Otherwise, he will not hold back. He can do this only by repressing and changing the elite - the one that, together with him, “mastered the resource”, to the one that, under his leadership, will now rob the loot.
Big changes ahead.
In turn, your humble servant also decided to practice prediction. Here's what I got:
Victor Anatolyevich, life, unfortunately, is not a chess game. Napoleon, they say, Waterloo lost because of a cold… What if some of the key players get a hemorrhoid at the wrong moment?
But back to the proposed association. Vladimir Vladimirovich made his move on 11 in May. The move, you know, is quite predictable. So the queue at the moment for our "partners." But they have with this something just "Tsungshvonder." Judge for yourself, many observers will be invited to the elections. Cannot be invited. There will be a number of irregularities in the election - it cannot be. Our western "partners" recognize the elections - they cannot but recognize ... And who will be with a wet booty in a dirty pool?
Go ahead. In the elections, as you know, Poroshenko wins. After coming to power, he will need to demonstrate power in the territory entrusted to him. It can not demonstrate. AS?
God is with them, with the Donetsk and Lugansk republics. (See, I recognize the will of the people, and you?). Poroshenko can not show its presence in the Dnipropetrovsk region and Odessa. That is to enter into conflict with Kolomoisky, and that already, oops! its lured sun. And sho then?
And in the rear of us who? Right, Tymoshenko. Which electorate has what? That's right, "hands in the sides and me on the drum, on which side you have a skullcap." In a word, "classic".
And this is if the elections are held, as our western "partners" wish, in one round. And how many elective tours can be in Ukraine, as we remember, nobody knows ...
So I propose to meet here after 25 for a glass of ale, virtually, of course, and we will see: who among us is why and why ...
Naturally, I posted my forecast in the comments. Lord of the forum! Please be witnesses of our virtual verbal duel. Moreover, the time left is absolutely nothing.