The level of analytical discussions in RuNet was perfectly described by political scientist Semyon Uralov: “It’s wrong to think that, against the background of the Ukrainian crisis, only the Kiev colleagues became mentally ill and turned into bloodthirsty Klikush. There’s an incredible amount among these Moscow colleagues.”
The purpose of this material is a departure from the click call and a cold analysis of the situation in Ukraine.
I will begin with the necessary clarifications on several emotionally important topics:
Why there is no military intervention of the Russian Federation?
If this text were written a few days earlier, a considerable part of it would have to be devoted to explaining why to send troops to Ukraine — it would be inappropriate and just silly, even after a referendum. Fortunately, Igor Strelkov, the head of the resistance in Slavyansk, coped better with this task than I, who in his video message very clearly described the inertia of the local population of Lugansk and Donetsk in terms of real actions to protect their interests from the junta. Anticipating the arguments about participation in the referendum, I want to immediately say that the checkmark in the bulletin is certainly cool, but not much different from hipster-belolentochnyh attempts to "take down the mode" like Facebook. Because the "like" is made pen in the newsletter, the essence does not change. The referendum was necessary, but far from sufficient action.
How much is the Kremlin ready for events in Ukraine and how much is he improvising now?
I advise you to read this Wikileaks telegram: https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/08MOSCOW265_a.html , which shows that the Kremlin Americans in 2008, clearly pointed out the scenarios that we see today: "In the eventuality, Russia would have to decide; a decision Russia doesn’t want to face. " - "Experts tell us that Russia is especially concerned that a strong division of opinion in Ukraine on the issue of joining NATO, given that the majority of ethnic Russians are opposed, can lead to a serious split, with the use of violence or, in the worst case, to civil war. In this scenario, Russia will have to choose: to intervene or not, and Russia does not want to face such a choice. "
It is logical to assume that such a development for the Kremlin was not a surprise and that now we are in an unpleasant but more or less elaborated scenario, something like the “plan E”.
In order to understand what the Kremlin will do next, we formulate goals:
- Prevent Ukraine joining NATO
- Prevent the establishment and stabilization of the Russophobic regime in Ukraine, which implies denazification
- Prevent the genocide of the Russian population of the South-East
Ideally, the realization of all three goals is required and at the same time it is necessary not to break the Russian economy in the process of reorienting to Asia and at the same time prevent the Americans from postponing their economic end at the expense of the EU.
How can these goals be realized?
Let's look at the simplest scenario and see what vulnerable points and negative consequences it has:
So, the Russian army enters Ukraine and in a few days comes to Kiev, then captures the whole of Ukraine. "Patriots" rejoice, parade on Khreshchatyk, and so on.
It seems to have achieved all three goals, but the following problems arise:
1. In the EU, in which the European business elites are slowly squeezing their politicians on the nail and lowering the sanctions on the brakes, the Party of War unequivocally wins (it is the United States Party). The maximum sanctions are cut in against the Russian Federation with an appalling effect primarily for the European economy, which immediately falls into recession. But nothing to rejoice.
Against this background, Americans are easily pushing the signing of their version of The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership - a trade pact that turns the EU into an appendage of the American economy. Negotiations about him are going on right now and for the Americans the introduction of the Russian troops to Ukraine would be a great gift. Sanctions against the Russian Federation destroy the European business, and the removal of trade barriers with the United States finishes it. What we have at the exit: The EU, as if after the war, the United States, all in white, happily entertain the European markets in which they no longer have and will not have competitors, the Russian Federation is not in the best shape. Doesn't anyone feel that someone in this situation is a sucker, and that someone is clearly not the United States? By the way, the arguments about the fact that European politicians will not allow economic suicide to be taken into account should not be taken. European officials and not so capable, as practice shows.
2. In addition to the fact that the Kremlin will serve Washington, you need to look at what will happen to Russia itself.
If sanctions are cut against the Russian Federation before the gas mega-contract for 30 is signed with China, then China will be able to negotiate a price from a position of strength. In fact, from the position of blackmail.
If sanctions are cut against the Russian Federation before an oil mega-contract is signed with Iran, through which Rosneft can control 500000 barrels of oil a day, then Iran will be able to negotiate a price from a position of strength.
All subsequent attempts to construct something, right up to simply supplying the import we need right now, will be very, very expensive.
If sanctions are cut before signing the treaty on the creation of a Eurasian economic space, imagine what kind of trump card Lukashenko and Nazarbayev will get in order to unscrew Putin’s hands in negotiations. A little more, and Moscow, in order to create Eurasian Economic Union, will have to pay extra for its oil.
3. The Russian Federation will have to take the rise of the Ukrainian economy, denazify (where to get the right amount of denacifiers in dusty helmets?), Fight with compact groups of Ukrainian Nazis, which will be supported and supplied from abroad.
In sum, it is clear that in this scenario, the United States and China greatly benefit. Russia is left with only a feeling of deep moral satisfaction, economic problems and future curses from wide Ukrainians who will be unhappy with “life under occupation”.
How are the key points of our vulnerabilities:
1. Gas contract with China - May-June, possibly 20-22 May
2. Oil contract with Iran - summer
3. Important! Elections to the European Parliament, in which Eurosceptic-allies of the Russian Federation will receive many votes. After the election, another composition of the European Commission will be assembled with which it will be much easier to work - May 25.
4. Collection of all the necessary documents / permits / etc. for the construction of the South Stream - 16 May. done it
This is something that can be seen with the naked eye, but there are still aspects that are very important but to which it is difficult to attach a clear timetable:
1. The transition to settlements in rubles for energy. Oil and gas are not potatoes, there are long-term contracts that cannot be redone unilaterally, it takes a long time to replace them with new ones and change the current ones.
2. Switching to quotes in rubles on energy prices (for trading in rubles) on Russian sites is absolutely hellish work, if only because no one has ever really done anything like this.
3. Own payment system
4. Preparation of import substitution or establishing work with Asian suppliers (not in emergency mode)
The list can and should be continued, this is what I see, and the Kremlin has a much broader horizon.
Now we will add interesting initiatives of our Ministry of Foreign Affairs, which is not idle. For example, Vice-minister Karasin 6 May was in Doha and met with the entire Qatari elite. The results, for my taste, were shocking. According to the Foreign Ministry, the Qatari emir said that he appreciates the "convincing and consistent regional policy of the Russian Federation", which is very unexpected for a country that seems to be an ally of the United States and 100% opponent of the Russian Federation in Syria. In my opinion, the casket opens simply and the fact is that American dreams of pouring the whole world with cheap gas are a death sentence for Qatar. Without ultrahigh gas prices, Qatar does not just lose hope of regional greatness, but becomes a corpse. Doha focuses quickly and begins to offer something interesting: “At the same time, emphasis was placed on accelerating coordination within the framework of the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF)”, the next summit of which (that's a coincidence!) Will be held in Qatar. The Gas Exporting Countries Forum is an organization which includes such countries as Russia, Iran, Qatar, Venezuela, Bolivia and other exporters and which the Kremlin has been trying to turn into a gas analogue of OPEC for a long time, but without success. It is possible that now is the high point for a potential gas cartel. For the first time, the three main gas exporters: Russia, Qatar, Iran have very similar interests and may well work on one side of the barricades in order to divide and "take over the gills" of the LNG market and the pipe gas market. Such a gas cartel, even in a truncated format (only Russia, Qatar, Iran) will control at least 55% of world gas reserves and have serious opportunities to greatly influence the energy markets of the EU and Asia. Of course, such a project will have many problems, it will meet with opposition, no one guarantees that everything will work out, but it is important to see that Moscow is actively looking for opportunities to gain additional strategic advantages in the fight against the United States.
I hope it is now clear what the Kremlin is wasting the time it is trying to win in Ukraine and why this is important.
Let us return to the tasks related directly to Ukraine and we note that even the implementation of all important foreign policy projects would not help to denazify Kiev and make Russian troops or the insurgent army of Novorossia wait with bread and salt, at least in the central regions. If the army of Novorossia has problems with mobilization in Lugansk and Donetsk, then working with more zombie regions will be very, very difficult. However, it appears that on the side of the Russian Federation, Colonel Golod and the special unit Hyperok (“Hyperinflation”) will soon enter the field, which will drastically change the balance of forces.
Ukrainian economy - the end. Taking into account the failed spring sowing, destroyed crops of vegetables (freezing), lack of credits, problems with gas, a jump in prices for fuel and lubricants, we can safely say that the northern animal will come to the economy, which will be full and fluffy. Nobody will give money to the junta, and even from the IMF, which promised something about 17 billion dollars (exactly 50% of what Ukraine needs for this year), an “excuse” is built into the contract: if Kiev does not control all the regions, then Kiev does not get a cent. Hunger, cold and hyperinflation (caused by the collapse of the hryvnia) will actively work to weaken the junta and to repress the brains of broad Ukrainians. They certainly will not love Russia, but this is not necessary. It is necessary that the period of Yanukovych they remembered as a sweet, unattainable dream. The inevitable chaos and the complete collapse of social structures, coupled with the sluggish civil war, ensures that Ukraine will not be taken to NATO, for Europe will “lie on the rails,” and even in the United States, more or less moderate politicians will not take a step that obviously will not lead to the US victory, and to the country being drawn into a nuclear war.
Moreover, in the conditions of total economic collapse, miners, metallurgists and other comrades who are now firmly glued to their jobs for fear of losing them and hoping to “wait out everything in the hut on the edge” will no longer have such an opportunity. They will have to participate, in one form or another, in solving the political and economic problems of Novorossia. Most likely, you will have to participate with weapons in hand.
At the same time, the junta them. Poroshenko will be the strongest incentive to negotiate with Moscow, to make concessions, to offer compromises. In this direction, Poroshenko will push the new European Commission, which will need peace in the east and stable gas transit. In the same direction Poroshenko will push social explosions caused by Colonel Golod and saboteur Hypercom.
All these factors, in sum, open up great opportunities for the Kremlin to reformat the former Ukraine into something in the interests of the Russian Federation. It is this scenario that the States are trying to avoid and it is because of it that they have serious motives to rush in order to put the conflict into a hot phase with the use of troops and large-scale bloodshed.
If you add up the time that is needed for actions of hunger and the time needed for solving foreign policy tasks in terms of establishing work with China, Iran, getting rid of the dollar, import substitution, etc. (very approximately), you can come to the conclusion that you need 5-9 months ( that same December, which Yanukovych tried to reach an agreement) to ensure the solution of Ukrainian and other issues with the maximum advantage of Russia. For this period, it is necessary to ensure at least the preservation of Ukraine in a state of civil war (that is, support for the DPR, the LPR, but Kiev should not be taken too quickly so as not to create unnecessary problems), and ideally combine a civil war with protracted and viscous negotiations. within Ukraine, with the participation of international observers, something like the 2 + 4 format, i.e. Poroshenko, Tsarev + RF, EU, OSCE, USA.
Finishing touch. In recent months, the United States has greatly slowed down the work of its printing press, reducing the "infusion of money" (especially simplifying the wording) from 85 to 55 billions of dollars a month. Many people expect (for example http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/27/us-usa-fed-idUSBREA3Q08920140427) that the machine is completely turned off by the end of this year. Again that same December. This is due to the fact that the dollar, although the main international currency, but to print it endlessly - it is impossible. According to various estimates, America almost completely used the “resource of durability” of the dollar, which allowed naughty with the machine. Moreover, the collateral and inescapable effect of such tricks is to underestimate the rates on US bonds, which, on the one hand, helps Washington pay less on debts, but on the other hand, it actually stifles the entire American pension and insurance system, which are built on expectation of completely different returns from their portfolios. bonds. Roughly speaking, by the end of the year, the United States will have the choice to blow up its social system in order to print further, or to greatly reduce its appetites in order to save at least some chance of stabilization at home. Judging by the reduction in the number of dollars being thrown into the system, Washington decided that preventing an explosion at home is more important than foreign policy ambitions.
Now, putting the puzzle together finally, we get the forecast:
- America will try with all its might to exacerbate the crisis in Ukraine in order to weaken the Russian Federation and put the entire European market under itself before it has to turn off its printing press.
- The Kremlin will try to translate the crisis in Ukraine from the acute phase into the chronic - civil war plus sluggish negotiations against the background of Ukraine’s economic collapse. At the same time, the Kremlin will use the time in order to create the most comfortable conditions for moving into a phase of acute confrontation with the United States - getting rid of the dollar, working with China, Iran, Qatar, creating the Eurasian Union, etc.
- The full end of the crisis - December 2014, perhaps earlier if the US stops trying to exacerbate.