Military Review

Ukraine: the development of the crisis

77
Ukraine: the development of the crisis



The level of analytical discussions in RuNet was perfectly described by political scientist Semyon Uralov: “It’s wrong to think that, against the background of the Ukrainian crisis, only the Kiev colleagues became mentally ill and turned into bloodthirsty Klikush. There’s an incredible amount among these Moscow colleagues.”

The purpose of this material is a departure from the click call and a cold analysis of the situation in Ukraine.

I will begin with the necessary clarifications on several emotionally important topics:

Why there is no military intervention of the Russian Federation?

If this text were written a few days earlier, a considerable part of it would have to be devoted to explaining why to send troops to Ukraine — it would be inappropriate and just silly, even after a referendum. Fortunately, Igor Strelkov, the head of the resistance in Slavyansk, coped better with this task than I, who in his video message very clearly described the inertia of the local population of Lugansk and Donetsk in terms of real actions to protect their interests from the junta. Anticipating the arguments about participation in the referendum, I want to immediately say that the checkmark in the bulletin is certainly cool, but not much different from hipster-belolentochnyh attempts to "take down the mode" like Facebook. Because the "like" is made pen in the newsletter, the essence does not change. The referendum was necessary, but far from sufficient action.

How much is the Kremlin ready for events in Ukraine and how much is he improvising now?

I advise you to read this Wikileaks telegram: https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/08MOSCOW265_a.html , which shows that the Kremlin Americans in 2008, clearly pointed out the scenarios that we see today: "In the eventuality, Russia would have to decide; a decision Russia doesn’t want to face. " - "Experts tell us that Russia is especially concerned that a strong division of opinion in Ukraine on the issue of joining NATO, given that the majority of ethnic Russians are opposed, can lead to a serious split, with the use of violence or, in the worst case, to civil war. In this scenario, Russia will have to choose: to intervene or not, and Russia does not want to face such a choice. "

It is logical to assume that such a development for the Kremlin was not a surprise and that now we are in an unpleasant but more or less elaborated scenario, something like the “plan E”.

In order to understand what the Kremlin will do next, we formulate goals:

- Prevent Ukraine joining NATO

- Prevent the establishment and stabilization of the Russophobic regime in Ukraine, which implies denazification

- Prevent the genocide of the Russian population of the South-East

Ideally, the realization of all three goals is required and at the same time it is necessary not to break the Russian economy in the process of reorienting to Asia and at the same time prevent the Americans from postponing their economic end at the expense of the EU.

How can these goals be realized?

Let's look at the simplest scenario and see what vulnerable points and negative consequences it has:

So, the Russian army enters Ukraine and in a few days comes to Kiev, then captures the whole of Ukraine. "Patriots" rejoice, parade on Khreshchatyk, and so on.

It seems to have achieved all three goals, but the following problems arise:

1. In the EU, in which the European business elites are slowly squeezing their politicians on the nail and lowering the sanctions on the brakes, the Party of War unequivocally wins (it is the United States Party). The maximum sanctions are cut in against the Russian Federation with an appalling effect primarily for the European economy, which immediately falls into recession. But nothing to rejoice.

Against this background, Americans are easily pushing the signing of their version of The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership - a trade pact that turns the EU into an appendage of the American economy. Negotiations about him are going on right now and for the Americans the introduction of the Russian troops to Ukraine would be a great gift. Sanctions against the Russian Federation destroy the European business, and the removal of trade barriers with the United States finishes it. What we have at the exit: The EU, as if after the war, the United States, all in white, happily entertain the European markets in which they no longer have and will not have competitors, the Russian Federation is not in the best shape. Doesn't anyone feel that someone in this situation is a sucker, and that someone is clearly not the United States? By the way, the arguments about the fact that European politicians will not allow economic suicide to be taken into account should not be taken. European officials and not so capable, as practice shows.

2. In addition to the fact that the Kremlin will serve Washington, you need to look at what will happen to Russia itself.

If sanctions are cut against the Russian Federation before the gas mega-contract for 30 is signed with China, then China will be able to negotiate a price from a position of strength. In fact, from the position of blackmail.

If sanctions are cut against the Russian Federation before an oil mega-contract is signed with Iran, through which Rosneft can control 500000 barrels of oil a day, then Iran will be able to negotiate a price from a position of strength.

All subsequent attempts to construct something, right up to simply supplying the import we need right now, will be very, very expensive.

If sanctions are cut before signing the treaty on the creation of a Eurasian economic space, imagine what kind of trump card Lukashenko and Nazarbayev will get in order to unscrew Putin’s hands in negotiations. A little more, and Moscow, in order to create Eurasian Economic Union, will have to pay extra for its oil.

3. The Russian Federation will have to take the rise of the Ukrainian economy, denazify (where to get the right amount of denacifiers in dusty helmets?), Fight with compact groups of Ukrainian Nazis, which will be supported and supplied from abroad.

In sum, it is clear that in this scenario, the United States and China greatly benefit. Russia is left with only a feeling of deep moral satisfaction, economic problems and future curses from wide Ukrainians who will be unhappy with “life under occupation”.


How are the key points of our vulnerabilities:


1. Gas contract with China - May-June, possibly 20-22 May

2. Oil contract with Iran - summer

3. Important! Elections to the European Parliament, in which Eurosceptic-allies of the Russian Federation will receive many votes. After the election, another composition of the European Commission will be assembled with which it will be much easier to work - May 25.

4. Collection of all the necessary documents / permits / etc. for the construction of the South Stream - 16 May. done it

This is something that can be seen with the naked eye, but there are still aspects that are very important but to which it is difficult to attach a clear timetable:

1. The transition to settlements in rubles for energy. Oil and gas are not potatoes, there are long-term contracts that cannot be redone unilaterally, it takes a long time to replace them with new ones and change the current ones.

2. Switching to quotes in rubles on energy prices (for trading in rubles) on Russian sites is absolutely hellish work, if only because no one has ever really done anything like this.

3. Own payment system

4. Preparation of import substitution or establishing work with Asian suppliers (not in emergency mode)

The list can and should be continued, this is what I see, and the Kremlin has a much broader horizon.

Now we will add interesting initiatives of our Ministry of Foreign Affairs, which is not idle. For example, Vice-minister Karasin 6 May was in Doha and met with the entire Qatari elite. The results, for my taste, were shocking. According to the Foreign Ministry, the Qatari emir said that he appreciates the "convincing and consistent regional policy of the Russian Federation", which is very unexpected for a country that seems to be an ally of the United States and 100% opponent of the Russian Federation in Syria. In my opinion, the casket opens simply and the fact is that American dreams of pouring the whole world with cheap gas are a death sentence for Qatar. Without ultrahigh gas prices, Qatar does not just lose hope of regional greatness, but becomes a corpse. Doha focuses quickly and begins to offer something interesting: “At the same time, emphasis was placed on accelerating coordination within the framework of the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF)”, the next summit of which (that's a coincidence!) Will be held in Qatar. The Gas Exporting Countries Forum is an organization which includes such countries as Russia, Iran, Qatar, Venezuela, Bolivia and other exporters and which the Kremlin has been trying to turn into a gas analogue of OPEC for a long time, but without success. It is possible that now is the high point for a potential gas cartel. For the first time, the three main gas exporters: Russia, Qatar, Iran have very similar interests and may well work on one side of the barricades in order to divide and "take over the gills" of the LNG market and the pipe gas market. Such a gas cartel, even in a truncated format (only Russia, Qatar, Iran) will control at least 55% of world gas reserves and have serious opportunities to greatly influence the energy markets of the EU and Asia. Of course, such a project will have many problems, it will meet with opposition, no one guarantees that everything will work out, but it is important to see that Moscow is actively looking for opportunities to gain additional strategic advantages in the fight against the United States.

I hope it is now clear what the Kremlin is wasting the time it is trying to win in Ukraine and why this is important.

Let us return to the tasks related directly to Ukraine and we note that even the implementation of all important foreign policy projects would not help to denazify Kiev and make Russian troops or the insurgent army of Novorossia wait with bread and salt, at least in the central regions. If the army of Novorossia has problems with mobilization in Lugansk and Donetsk, then working with more zombie regions will be very, very difficult. However, it appears that on the side of the Russian Federation, Colonel Golod and the special unit Hyperok (“Hyperinflation”) will soon enter the field, which will drastically change the balance of forces.

Ukrainian economy - the end. Taking into account the failed spring sowing, destroyed crops of vegetables (freezing), lack of credits, problems with gas, a jump in prices for fuel and lubricants, we can safely say that the northern animal will come to the economy, which will be full and fluffy. Nobody will give money to the junta, and even from the IMF, which promised something about 17 billion dollars (exactly 50% of what Ukraine needs for this year), an “excuse” is built into the contract: if Kiev does not control all the regions, then Kiev does not get a cent. Hunger, cold and hyperinflation (caused by the collapse of the hryvnia) will actively work to weaken the junta and to repress the brains of broad Ukrainians. They certainly will not love Russia, but this is not necessary. It is necessary that the period of Yanukovych they remembered as a sweet, unattainable dream. The inevitable chaos and the complete collapse of social structures, coupled with the sluggish civil war, ensures that Ukraine will not be taken to NATO, for Europe will “lie on the rails,” and even in the United States, more or less moderate politicians will not take a step that obviously will not lead to the US victory, and to the country being drawn into a nuclear war.

Moreover, in the conditions of total economic collapse, miners, metallurgists and other comrades who are now firmly glued to their jobs for fear of losing them and hoping to “wait out everything in the hut on the edge” will no longer have such an opportunity. They will have to participate, in one form or another, in solving the political and economic problems of Novorossia. Most likely, you will have to participate with weapons in hand.

At the same time, the junta them. Poroshenko will be the strongest incentive to negotiate with Moscow, to make concessions, to offer compromises. In this direction, Poroshenko will push the new European Commission, which will need peace in the east and stable gas transit. In the same direction Poroshenko will push social explosions caused by Colonel Golod and saboteur Hypercom.

All these factors, in sum, open up great opportunities for the Kremlin to reformat the former Ukraine into something in the interests of the Russian Federation. It is this scenario that the States are trying to avoid and it is because of it that they have serious motives to rush in order to put the conflict into a hot phase with the use of troops and large-scale bloodshed.

If you add up the time that is needed for actions of hunger and the time needed for solving foreign policy tasks in terms of establishing work with China, Iran, getting rid of the dollar, import substitution, etc. (very approximately), you can come to the conclusion that you need 5-9 months ( that same December, which Yanukovych tried to reach an agreement) to ensure the solution of Ukrainian and other issues with the maximum advantage of Russia. For this period, it is necessary to ensure at least the preservation of Ukraine in a state of civil war (that is, support for the DPR, the LPR, but Kiev should not be taken too quickly so as not to create unnecessary problems), and ideally combine a civil war with protracted and viscous negotiations. within Ukraine, with the participation of international observers, something like the 2 + 4 format, i.e. Poroshenko, Tsarev + RF, EU, OSCE, USA.

Finishing touch. In recent months, the United States has greatly slowed down the work of its printing press, reducing the "infusion of money" (especially simplifying the wording) from 85 to 55 billions of dollars a month. Many people expect (for example http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/27/us-usa-fed-idUSBREA3Q08920140427) that the machine is completely turned off by the end of this year. Again that same December. This is due to the fact that the dollar, although the main international currency, but to print it endlessly - it is impossible. According to various estimates, America almost completely used the “resource of durability” of the dollar, which allowed naughty with the machine. Moreover, the collateral and inescapable effect of such tricks is to underestimate the rates on US bonds, which, on the one hand, helps Washington pay less on debts, but on the other hand, it actually stifles the entire American pension and insurance system, which are built on expectation of completely different returns from their portfolios. bonds. Roughly speaking, by the end of the year, the United States will have the choice to blow up its social system in order to print further, or to greatly reduce its appetites in order to save at least some chance of stabilization at home. Judging by the reduction in the number of dollars being thrown into the system, Washington decided that preventing an explosion at home is more important than foreign policy ambitions.

Now, putting the puzzle together finally, we get the forecast:

- America will try with all its might to exacerbate the crisis in Ukraine in order to weaken the Russian Federation and put the entire European market under itself before it has to turn off its printing press.

- The Kremlin will try to translate the crisis in Ukraine from the acute phase into the chronic - civil war plus sluggish negotiations against the background of Ukraine’s economic collapse. At the same time, the Kremlin will use the time in order to create the most comfortable conditions for moving into a phase of acute confrontation with the United States - getting rid of the dollar, working with China, Iran, Qatar, creating the Eurasian Union, etc.

- The full end of the crisis - December 2014, perhaps earlier if the US stops trying to exacerbate.
Author:
Originator:
http://politrussia.ru/politkasha/ukraina-razvitie-krizisa/
77 comments
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  1. MOISEY
    MOISEY 20 May 2014 14: 45
    +7
    The abandonment of the dollar is the path to economic independence and stability.
    1. DanSabaka
      DanSabaka 20 May 2014 14: 51
      +6
      I am for .... but taking into account the fact that all the Gaster workers working in Russia send exactly $, it seems very difficult ... they buy huge quantities of dollars, supporting the demand on exchanges ...
      1. Rus2012
        Rus2012 20 May 2014 15: 20
        +5
        Quote: DanSabaka
        Well they buy huge quantities of dollars

        ... this is good, the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance in the domestic market part with unnecessary wrappers, i.e. easily change them into rubles ...
        1. DanSabaka
          DanSabaka 20 May 2014 16: 51
          0
          "to sell something you don't need, you must first buy something you don't need" (c)

          and any purchase of a dollar has a positive effect on its hardness ....
      2. vadimN
        vadimN 20 May 2014 15: 30
        +2
        And they will have to send rubles to their homeland, which will lead to a decrease in demand for the dollar on the exchanges and strengthen the position of the ruble in the republics, where the aforementioned Gaster came from ... I would like it to be so ... but it’s not easy ... How to make them send rubles? Prohibit the sale of the dollar? Unreal. it will only cause a surge in speculation and speculation ...
        1. DanSabaka
          DanSabaka 20 May 2014 16: 53
          0
          and even this will lead to a decrease in the flow of Gaster, which is completely unprofitable for officials and businessmen in Russia .... t, e. the ban on the dollar will interfere heavily ....
  2. DanSabaka
    DanSabaka 20 May 2014 14: 48
    +2
    quite lively forecast .... people feel sorry, not everyone can survive until the fall ....
    1. Barboskin
      Barboskin 20 May 2014 15: 10
      +4
      "The revolution is not a countess with gloves on."
    2. Rus2012
      Rus2012 20 May 2014 15: 21
      +3
      Quote: DanSabaka
      pity people, not everyone can survive until the fall ....

      And where are the Nazis? they are insane and not reeducable ...
      1. nikrandel
        nikrandel 20 May 2014 16: 04
        +1
        Send them all together in Washington, give them a few pennies, let them arrange a maidan on the White House lawn.
      2. DanSabaka
        DanSabaka 20 May 2014 16: 55
        0
        who said they are not reeducable? apparently not the methods of education applied to them .....
    3. Blondy
      Blondy 20 May 2014 15: 27
      +2
      In the light of Strelkov’s statements, it is necessary to demand the implementation of guarantees
      West from February 21. Let France, Germany and Poland send their troops to Kiev and restore guaranteed order there. They crush law enforcement officers, the National Guard, in general, they denazify, defash, etc. Let rake after the States.
      1. 11111mail.ru
        11111mail.ru 20 May 2014 16: 34
        +1
        Quote: Blondy
        May France, Germany and Poland send troops to Kiev and bring guaranteed order there.

        Have you forgotten the brains on the nightstand?
      2. Horst78
        Horst78 20 May 2014 16: 45
        +2
        Quote: Blondy
        In the light of Strelkov’s statements, it is necessary to demand the implementation of guarantees
        West from February 21. Let France, Germany and Poland send their troops to Kiev and restore guaranteed order there. They crush law enforcement officers, the National Guard, in general, they denazify, defash, etc. Let rake after the States.

        Put + (the girl repeat ). But seriously. What are the REALLY UNCAPABLE TROOPS IN EUROPE? There are separate special forces, but as the saying goes "AND WHAT?" Look at the NATO troops in the Baltic States that get up. They only know how to thump, eat for free and pester the men, and ignore the prostitutes who have arrived.
      3. Penzyac
        Penzyac 20 May 2014 16: 57
        +2
        Quote: Blondy
        In the light of Strelkov’s statements, it is necessary to demand the implementation of guarantees
        West from February 21. Let France, Germany and Poland send their troops to Kiev and restore guaranteed order there. They crush law enforcement officers, the National Guard, in general, they denazify, defash, etc. Let rake after the States.

        And what then, at the end of the year, to do with these Fritzes, lyakhams and frogs? They will have to be expelled from Kiev somehow. Yes, and I do not believe that the Gayropeans will de-Nazify, they will rather loot, buying anything of any value from the inevitably impoverished Kievans for a pittance ("Scythian gold" has long been in America, by the way, it will have to be returned as stolen).
    4. aleks 62
      aleks 62 20 May 2014 15: 53
      +3
      Quote: DanSabaka
      quite lively forecast .... people feel sorry, not everyone can survive until the fall ....

      .... Being gives birth to consciousness .... Or beat ???
      1. DanSabaka
        DanSabaka 20 May 2014 16: 56
        +1
        according to Marx - BEING .... in life - BEAT ...
        1. andrejwz
          andrejwz 20 May 2014 19: 31
          0
          Quote: DanSabaka
          according to Marx - BEING .... in life - BEAT ...

          Translation difficulties.
    5. Mik-51
      Mik-51 20 May 2014 16: 09
      +6
      And Odesa victims do not mind? But will not it be a pity for all the Russians, who will simply be killed if the Maya-Danish right-wingers completely win?
      And our people do not mind that in the case of perching on our ridge also the whole of southeastern Ukraine, will have to tighten their belts to the limit?
      So - if you "feel sorry for the people" - a ticket in hand, a shoulder strap - and forward - to protect people in the Square.
      1. DanSabaka
        DanSabaka 20 May 2014 16: 58
        +1
        I’m sorry ... I’m saying that the forecast is lively ... the sacrifices will continue in the future, until complete order and peace comes ....
      2. anfil
        20 May 2014 18: 40
        0
        à la guerre comme à la guerre
    6. smile
      smile 20 May 2014 16: 14
      +7
      DanSabaka
      And in my opinion, a very balanced and reasoned forecast, without any emotions that, when making decisions, only harm. Moreover, the author supports the actions of Russia, which are not only optimal for us and those Ukrainians who support us, they will also help save a lot of lives. So that there is nothing living in it. He is just sober.
      The only thing - I think we lost the center and the west of Ukraine. They won’t go to us - their brains are too trashy for self-propaganda. And then I would not want to fight with the independents who would regularly organize demonstrations against the occupation and quietly spoil them. The main thing is to help those who are unsweetened with independent neo-Nazi power to help move to the South and East.
      1. DanSabaka
        DanSabaka 20 May 2014 17: 00
        +2
        I think we lost the center and the west of Ukraine. They will not go to us

        So Zapadentsy did not want to visit us in 1939 .... but JV Stalin managed to find arguments ....
        1. smile
          smile 20 May 2014 17: 22
          0
          DanSabaka
          :)))) +++++ It’s also an option .... but, unfortunately, where are the times when the Nazis were put on the wall ...
          By the way, the zapadents at that time really wanted to, because the Poles nipped them so much for us - they could not breathe - neither the press, nor education, nor rights. The Ukrainians under the Poles were mostly disenfranchised Skkkot, second-class people. A policy of assimilation was carried out in respect of them, with severe measures, the Westerners were flooded by the besiegers, the Poles shot them and burned their villages even in September 39. Generally. frankly speaking, the Poles differed from fascists not so much as it might seem. Although, of course, they killed less than the Germans. Yeah, and then the evil Stalin came and gave them everything .... gratitude is evident. :)))
          1. Corsair
            Corsair 20 May 2014 17: 57
            +1
            Quote: smile
            By the way, the Zapadents at that time really wanted to, because the Poles so infringed them on us — they could not breathe — neither the press, nor education, nor rights. The Ukrainians under the Poles were mostly disenfranchised Skkkot, second-class people.

            Welcome smile!
            And now, you see, "they cheered up" ...
            1. smile
              smile 20 May 2014 19: 03
              +2
              Corsair
              Hello to the filibusters!
              Right I immediately remembered the evil, but just to the disgraceful words of Ulyana Skobeida, which we almost devoured from us - it was necessary to give all the same lampshades from you ... :))) Or the words of that Jewish guard - if not for the Russian Army, you and your whole family would fit in one piece of soap for the Nazis' legs .... To the zapadentsam, which generally still exist thanks to bad Russians, both of these expressions are fully applicable.
              1. Corsair
                Corsair 20 May 2014 19: 13
                +1
                Quote: smile
                I immediately remembered the evil, but just to the disgraceful words of Ulyana Skobeida, which we almost ate - we had to still let us make some lampshades out of you ... :)))

                Yes, hard of course, "on the verge of a foul", but according to some sources, the dead and even more svidomye ykropatriots provide their organs for "spare parts" for the rich of the West on a full voluntary basis ...

                So in the West, someone can even believe that in the death camps prisoners gave their skin away with a feeling of deep gratitude to the Nazis ...
            2. skeptik2999
              skeptik2999 20 May 2014 21: 35
              +1
              Yes, the Polish campaign of the Red Army was almost bloodless. And they met our army with flowers. You can’t fake photos with thousands of people on the streets of Lviv and other cities - then there was no photoshop. Why, after 1,5 years, the Nazis were met with flowers, and our fighters were shot in the back?
              1. smile
                smile 20 May 2014 23: 05
                +1
                skeptik2999
                Don’t worry, Ukrainians, even in Western women, were shot to the Germans in the back much more often than to us. :)))) And about what is happening there now, I want to remind you that in Germany, in just 6-7 years, propaganda was able to bring the Germans to the loss of their human appearance, in Ukraine, self-advocates could not oskkkotin people in this state in 23 years. And this is with the generation that grew up from the cradle in an atmosphere of total Russophobic propaganda.
                1. Corsair
                  Corsair 21 May 2014 03: 06
                  +1
                  Quote: smile
                  in Ukraine, self-advocates of apostasy were unable to oskkkotin people in such a state for 23 years. And this is with the generation that grew up from the cradle in an atmosphere of total Russophobic propaganda.

                  THE UNION has sunk into oblivion, but the strong SOVIET ROD in people has remained ...
        2. skeptik2999
          skeptik2999 20 May 2014 21: 30
          +1
          The center and the west of Ukraine without Bandera regions can still be somehow kept: zombie zombies, but they want to. But the new Stalin is not needed, there are other ways. We must wait for the resolution of the crisis.
      2. g1v2
        g1v2 20 May 2014 17: 46
        +4
        For the first time a competent and real article, with all the main points. I have repeatedly said that the battle for Ukraine is for months and will be fought on different fronts. For the first time, I came across an article showing all or almost all of the cause-effect relationships of our actions. Everyone in comments is whining why Putin is silent, why he left, where are our actions? Here are our actions and they are much more important than the supply of a pair of guns to the Donbass. True, I believe that everything will begin in the fall, and not in December, but all this will be visible in the course of the play.
        1. anfil
          20 May 2014 18: 51
          0
          Possible variant:
          If sanctions are cut against the Russian Federation before the gas mega-contract for 30 is signed with China, then China will be able to negotiate a price from a position of strength. In fact, from the position of blackmail.

          The article was written by 18.05,2014

          And now 20.05.2014:
          Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping signed a record package of documents
          "A Russian-Chinese Investment Committee has been created, which will continue to work on expanding investment flows. We will encourage interaction in high-tech industries. Civil aviation is one of them. We have good prospects here, good projects for creating a wide-body aircraft and a heavy civilian helicopter. cooperation in the automotive industry. We will continue to develop the financial infrastructure. Active work is underway to increase mutual settlements in national currencies, "- said Vladimir Putin.
          1. skeptik2999
            skeptik2999 20 May 2014 21: 38
            0
            But the gas contract has not been rewritten again, the issue of price has not been settled.
            1. grozaman
              grozaman 21 May 2014 14: 15
              0
              The contract has already been signed today. 400 billion dollars.
      3. CTEPX
        CTEPX 20 May 2014 17: 48
        +1
        Quote: smile
        I think we lost the center and the west of Ukraine.

        This is too optimistic. Anglo-Saxons will not allow a peaceful divorce. They will try to fascitize the remnants of Ukraine, it will not work - they will saturate it with scum from around the world and let it go to Europe.
        1. smile
          smile 20 May 2014 19: 15
          0
          CTEPX
          Of course they will try, but I'm not sure that it will succeed in letting us go. Not the conditions, radical Muslims cannot be sent there. And Russia is not Syria. I do not think that they will succeed fully. Do not give. And the people of the Southeast will not give. This is to fight in conditions of numerical, and not only superiority of the independents, as you can see, they are not torn, but they will cope with such quickly, having our support behind us. Why to Europe? Where? To Poland? What for? She is already trying to somehow dodge and become the closest US ally on the continent. To Hungary? To other countries? No, they can only be set against us. They were nurtured for that, they just did not expect that their policy would lead to the collapse of Ukraine.
  3. svp67
    svp67 20 May 2014 14: 49
    +12
    Ukraine - CE Europe ...

    Previously they went for 200, but now they are ready for 100 ... And tomorrow, they will agree for a piece of bread ...
  4. EvilLion
    EvilLion 20 May 2014 14: 51
    .
    I have already wondered about the nonsense outlined elsewhere, so just a minus.
    1. aleks 62
      aleks 62 20 May 2014 15: 54
      +3
      .... Everything is extremely tough and .... right ...
    2. 11111mail.ru
      11111mail.ru 20 May 2014 16: 36
      +1
      Quote: EvilLion
      therefore just a minus

      That you put yourself.
    3. BYV
      BYV 20 May 2014 16: 48
      +3
      Quote: EvilLion
      regarding the stated nonsense

      I don’t put a minus, because maybe I don’t understand something. In my opinion, everything is stated extremely clearly and logically. Maybe you give yourself the trouble to state what exactly is nonsense?
  5. Giant thought
    Giant thought 20 May 2014 14: 53
    +3
    Achieve the task at minimum cost and loss, for this you can wait a while, and not tear your nerves and others.
  6. zanoza
    zanoza 20 May 2014 14: 53
    +2
    What is remarkable so it is that in this political and economic dispute (war) between the West and Russia, the opinion of Ukraine is not taken into account by any of the warring parties, it is considered as an economic, and indeed political, agonizing corpse.
    "Well, she died, she died like that ..."
    1. vadimN
      vadimN 20 May 2014 15: 35
      +2
      There has long been a joke among workers at the Russian Foreign Ministry that Ukraine has evolved from a subject of world politics to an object of world politics.
      In human terms, it sounds something like this: Ukraine is a tool with which the powers (Russia and the USA) solve their geopolitical tasks. And the opinion of Ukraine and Ukrainians in this game does not interest anyone ...
      1. smile
        smile 20 May 2014 16: 26
        +2
        vadimN
        Well, why? It is the position of the inhabitants of Ukraine that determines the actions of Russia. If the Ukrainians together yelled to Slavukheroev, then we would not have fluttered. Do you think we could accept the Crimea, who escaped from the junta, if its inhabitants were against?
        But with the state, Ukraine is a different matter. A stillborn state, the power of which through an armed coup was established by our likely friends. The junta is grown by them and absolutely devoted to them and controlled by them, no independence is out of the question. So what is the point of being interested in their opinion if this opinion is let down to them from the USA?
    2. Penzyac
      Penzyac 20 May 2014 17: 53
      +1
      Quote: zanoza
      What is remarkable so it is that in this political and economic dispute (war) between the West and Russia, the opinion of Ukraine is not taken into account by any of the warring parties, it is considered as an economic, and indeed political, agonizing corpse.
      "Well, she died, she died like that ..."

      Why isn't it taken into account? The opinion of Yu-V is taken into account in the context of the interests of Russia and the fate of the population of all of Ukraine. The opinion of the state of Ukraine can no longer be taken into account, since such a state no longer exists. The fate of the population is now decided by other states and only partly by the people (its active part) of the DPR and LPR, as an ally of the Russian state and part of the Russian people. Kiev collaborators and "myahataskrayushniki" do not decide anything by definition.
  7. mig31
    mig31 20 May 2014 14: 54
    +1
    the Americans, by virtue of their "exclusiveness", will push until the EU, having calculated its losses, weeps, and Russia, as always, is prepared for the role of a tolerant and a third party ... although who knows how it will be there, but it is worth pondering ...
  8. Arh
    Arh 20 May 2014 14: 58
    +2
    The hostages are ordinary people of Ukraine !!!
    1. Rus2012
      Rus2012 20 May 2014 15: 24
      +4
      Quote: Arh
      The hostages are ordinary people of Ukraine !!!

      and what to do now with them? if they hold us for occupiers and to blame for their troubles in everything?
      And so it will be until the end of the century ... Do not you find?
      You will not be nice to violence (s)
  9. Strashila
    Strashila 20 May 2014 14: 59
    +4
    The United States has always regarded Europe as a source of income.
    Any actions in the world initiated by the USA, primarily losses, were received by Europe in one form or another
    Yugoslavia / Serbia, Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria, Ukraine ... Europe receives from the migrants to energy security problems on the face.
    1. Penzyac
      Penzyac 20 May 2014 18: 03
      0
      Quote: Strashila
      The United States has always regarded Europe as a source of income.
      ...

      The US sees the whole world only as a source of income.
      The so-called "American Dream" is to get rich and no longer work. From the very moment of birth, they are climbing out of their way, they are trying to achieve everything the American dream.
  10. Free Island
    Free Island 20 May 2014 15: 02
    +5
    may not my brothers Caucasians, Tatars, Mongols, Ainu, Nivkhs, Koreans, Germans, Jews, Buryats, Circassians take offense, and many others, all those with whom the Russian people and Russian princes and tsars built the Russian state, BUT - A SLAVIC world is a Slavic world .. here is a helmet photo .. Ukraine Tse Europe ... and you, dill, are needed by this Geyropa ???? From time immemorial, the Slavs were a separate civilization, we do not need either Geyropa or Asia, we are in the center .. in the center of the world, together with all our younger brothers, whom I listed at the beginning, we all always built a state, collected pieces of fragmented Russia, not gingerbread whip collected. Tolerance of foreign traditions, tolerance of strange religions, all this made Russia the most powerful state on the planet! It was because of the policy of the carrot, and not the policy of the carrot, that all our nations went to fight for Russia, for Russia and for the Russians .. It’s more that zombies live on the Maidan in Ukraine, that zombies among the Slavs live in Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and even Albanians, fucking Kosovo Albanians, who are also Slavs - are you just people ???? Where are your tsuka brains ....
  11. xvicx
    xvicx 20 May 2014 15: 03
    +8
    Very competent article. Written with good knowledge and skill. But to abandon the dollar quickly does not work. We just can’t rebuild the whole system built back in 90 years. It is a pity that the fraternal people are bargaining chips in the big game ...
  12. Sergg
    Sergg 20 May 2014 15: 05
    +5
    First of all, it is necessary to consider how to provide humanitarian assistance to the Donetsk and Lugansk republics, the need for which is increasing day by day. Fascist Kiev will impede this; they don’t have anything human.
    The prospects for survival of the Russian Federation and pragmatism are correct, but it is necessary to calculate options for the provision of humanitarian assistance now.
  13. Signaller
    Signaller 20 May 2014 15: 05
    +2
    Haste is needed only with one flea-catching action.
  14. St.S.S.
    St.S.S. 20 May 2014 15: 11
    +2
    The given script is very sorry for Ukraine "innocent people" But the script is very competent! I wish it all happened this way. Only with the smallest possible victims of the population of dill !!! How not like living people all the same !!!
  15. v245721
    v245721 20 May 2014 15: 13
    +1
    one thing is not clear why the Central Bank of Russia decided to take the hryvnia into gold foreign exchange reserve. from toilet paper, it wakes more sense.
  16. Bobxnumx
    Bobxnumx 20 May 2014 15: 23
    +1
    I dug deep, but that's right. Time will put everything in its place.
  17. Alexey M
    Alexey M 20 May 2014 15: 39
    +3
    Respect and respect to the author !!!! For the work done.
    As I understand it, a world scribe in the financial sector is coming soon, and Ukraine just simply fell under the distribution. Yankees just want to "earn" all the money in the world again?
    By the way, enlighten the ignoramus of the United States from China, it took the money before the salary, and to return when necessary?
  18. Nikolav
    Nikolav 20 May 2014 15: 46
    +2
    A thorough and serious article. There are two points. We have been burying the economy of Ukraine since November last year. And she still, though with a strain, but creaks. We started burying the dollar even earlier. But he does not fall off. Also information for consideration.
    1. CTEPX
      CTEPX 20 May 2014 18: 13
      0
      Quote: Nicholas
      We have been burying the economy of Ukraine since November last year. And she still, though with a strain, but creaks. We started burying the dollar even earlier. But he does not fall off.

      Well yes)). They take a loan in order to repay the debt, but they do not repay the debts, but they call for another borrowing, so that there are chances of repaying the debt ...)).
      1. Oprychnik
        Oprychnik 20 May 2014 18: 32
        +1
        Yes, no ... Ukraine is not Rodion Raskolnikov. And Russia is not an old percent-woman.))) Usually, debtors are rolled into asphalt. The time has come.)))
  19. kmike
    kmike 20 May 2014 15: 46
    +1
    Everything is very competently and intelligently painted. Of course, the people of Ukraine are sorry, but there’s no getting around. For the sake of a big world, there must be big sacrifices. As during the Second World War, our commanders donated millions so that we could sit quietly drinking tea and not only tea .FOR VICTORY!
  20. made13
    made13 20 May 2014 15: 50
    0
    Battlefield - Ukraine.
  21. JACTUS RECTUS
    JACTUS RECTUS 20 May 2014 16: 02
    +2
    Cynical, but very believable.
  22. northern
    northern 20 May 2014 16: 22
    +7
    Max Metroelf shared the beautiful - How maidanutye jumped in the subway, watch with sound
  23. Jackyun
    Jackyun 20 May 2014 16: 24
    +4
    All is correct. Russia currently benefits from a sluggish civil war. Lately, the feeling of something big that Putin has conceived does not leave me. Hence the skating of the Russian army: now to the border, now from it, and, it would seem, a cold attitude towards the Donbas. However, Nona was captured with one ammunition, and they have been fighting with him for more than a month (?) And the training of the rebel command staff is pleasing. It’s not necessary to consider ukrov as deby.lami — their officers were trained according to the Soviet, not very bad system, and the Zapadentsev fighters must be understood and accepted correctly — they are fighting with Moskal’s, and have long been preparing for this. They have a moral incentive. But! All this army came across a well-prepared and organized resistance, which at a certain point in time appeared immediately, all of a sudden.
    Everything is correct. We are waiting for development. I suppose by the middle of summer a lot will become clear, and on New Year's Day there will be a reason to raise a glass for the Russian Donbas.
  24. Kazakh
    Kazakh 20 May 2014 16: 26
    +2
    very sorry for Ukraine "innocent people"
    It is a pity that the fraternal people are bargaining chips in the big game ..
    The hostages are ordinary people of Ukraine !!!
    How tired these pityors are of no words. How much can you feel sorry for "elephants in the distant Sumatra"? When will we begin to feel sorry for our people? Do Ukrainians feel sorry for us? Not Ukraine, but Ukrainians? Why should we feel sorry for them? Because they are torn to Europe and are ready to do anything for this? Because they are ready to join NATO? That's what I must feel sorry for? For the fact that I ... And the occupier? For the fact that they lived on my and your money for 20 years? And we didn’t have to put money for these 20 years? They wanted lard so let them get the musals in full so that they remembered longer. Did the European integrators come to them in 40 years? Well, let the "common people" also seize and let the people think who is the hero and who is the glory.
  25. A1L9E4K9S
    A1L9E4K9S 20 May 2014 16: 27
    0
    Although my words seem cruel to someone, they will survive. We need to pity the Ukrainians less, still they will not appreciate our pity, they pity themselves very well, sit in their holes, wait for them to come from the side and save them. And this is in the southeast, and in the rest of Ukraine, Russia is generally considered an enemy. And whom are we going to save there, why do we have to crawl ourselves into the pile of crap that the Kiev junta created in alliance with the West.
    1. g1v2
      g1v2 20 May 2014 18: 13
      +3
      It is not a pity, but the fact that either our borders will have 40 million cannon fodder, and the country is the reason for the existence of which will harm us or a state allied to us with 30 million Russian people. I BELIEVE THAT UKRAINIANS ARE THE SECOND BRANCH OF THE RUSSIAN PEOPLE IN NUMBER and one cannot be allowed to turn them into anti-Russian. The whole difference between us is that at one time they fell under the power of the Poles, and we are Tatars. Therefore, the east has affected us more, and the Polish-Lithuanian culture is on them, but all these are differences within the framework of one nation. For the West, Ukrainians are as Russian as we are, and the Amers have no pity for them. Just 23 years old they were brainwashed in order to get cannon fodder. They were told that the history of Kievan Rus was not their history, that they suffered a separate nation, whose faults were to blame for all, and that the victories of Russian weapons were not their victories. We see what has been done in 23 years - what will happen in another 20 years? For 40 million Russians it’s worth fighting, but without snot and tantrums. Tough and pragmatic, without rushing, the result. Yes, and right away about the sofa, I also served as many on the site and if they call, I’ll go to fight, but I don’t have any desire to leave my family without money and go to fight when those for whom they fight are at home.
  26. Agent 008
    Agent 008 20 May 2014 16: 30
    -1
    The only conclusion that I draw from most of the articles on "VO" is that almost all experts are Pragmatic Cynics! Consider your gas and oil there, talk about some kind of agreements with an even more cynical West, it is not profitable ... But I AM A MAN, I feel sorry for the people who are killed by the fascists !!! When Slavyansk is destroyed to the ground with heavy weapons, maybe SOMETHING HUMAN will wake up in you ... But for now, count there, make tables what is profitable for Russia and what is not ... And I DON'T WANT TO BE A CYNIC!
    1. Alexey M
      Alexey M 20 May 2014 16: 38
      +2
      Cynics and lyrics? When the guns say the muses are silent. There is war and there is no place for emotions in the war. You can throw troops to defend the brothers of the Slavs, we will win the battle but lose the war.
      War is not only tanks and guns, the worst weapon is the ordinary pen of which they signed.
    2. mamont5
      mamont5 20 May 2014 16: 57
      0
      Quote: agent xnumx
      The only conclusion that I draw from most of the articles on "VO" is that almost all experts are Pragmatic Cynics! Consider your gas and oil there, talk about some kind of agreements with an even more cynical West, it is not profitable ... But I AM A MAN, I feel sorry for the people who are killed by the fascists !!! When Slavyansk is destroyed to the ground with heavy weapons, maybe SOMETHING HUMAN will wake up in you ... But for now, count there, make tables what is profitable for Russia and what is not ... And I DON'T WANT TO BE A CYNIC!


      Dear 008 agent, if your soul hurts for people, then you can go there as a volunteer to Strelkov. It will be worthy. But our leaders have to think not only for Ukrainian citizens, who themselves cannot think about themselves yet and wait until they come to them and EVERYTHING is done, but also for Russia, for its people and its future. And everything, in general, is in their hands, regardless of what the experts say, and what we will say here.
    3. Kazakh
      Kazakh 20 May 2014 17: 04
      +1
      ..And I ARE MAN, I PIT PEOPLE WHO KILL THE FASCISTS !!!
      what are you doing with your pity? Are you in the trenches of Slavyansk? Maybe an orderly in Odessa? I feel sorry for Crimeans, I didn’t go as a hero, but what could I do and you respected tell me. If, of course, you are not a secret agent
  27. prophet
    prophet 20 May 2014 16: 38
    +1
    We will help everyone. We are not vindictive! We are just angry and we have a good memory! And in the price, I think we will take into account all the insults)))
  28. Agent 008
    Agent 008 20 May 2014 16: 52
    +1
    Quote: Prophet
    We will help everyone. We are not vindictive! We are just angry and we have a good memory! And in the price, I think we will take into account all the insults)))

    It may become, and there will be no one to help, they will kill everyone!
  29. mamont5
    mamont5 20 May 2014 16: 52
    +1
    A very good article. Everything is laid out on shelves and is quite affordable.

    "- Complete end of the crisis - December 2014, possibly earlier, if the United States stops trying to escalate."

    Yes, I’m wondering something like this - for the summer they stocked up gas, gardens, old supplies for food, a lot of problems will accumulate by the fall, and then there will be cold and food problems. That's where it all starts.
  30. Agent 008
    Agent 008 20 May 2014 17: 06
    +2
    Quote: Alexey M
    Cynics and lyrics? When the guns say the muses are silent. There is war and there is no place for emotions in the war. You can throw troops to defend the brothers of the Slavs, we will win the battle but lose the war.
    War is not only tanks and guns, the worst weapon is the ordinary pen of which they signed.

    I disagree! Do you want to say in 1941 they went on the attack without emotion, without shouting “For the Motherland, for Stalin!” And the commanders who raised the soldiers did not shout: “Forward, for the Motherland.” And A. Matrosov also rushed to the embrasure without emotion? It's a pity if you want to turn soldiers into killing machines ... The Russian soldier always went on the attack shouting "Hurray" and "FOR THE HOMELAND"! Therefore, we have always won ...
  31. tnship2
    tnship2 20 May 2014 17: 53
    +3
    We are at war! True, shells do not burst and missiles do not start. Economic war. Do you need to look for pros everywhere. Do people die in the hundreds of thousands? Plus! The economy with a creak but reborn? Plus! The country grows in territories and does not lose them in the classical war? Plus! People rallied around the leader? Plus! I think it’s possible to continue for a long time. Now on energy sources. All the fuss around gas and oil will not go anywhere. Nobody wants to step on his genitals. This is all sophistry - a marketplace way to reduce the price.
  32. ATATA
    ATATA 20 May 2014 17: 54
    +1
    Good, sensible, rare article here. The author is a bold "+".
  33. ks
    ks 20 May 2014 18: 23
    +1
    Casting from empty to empty, it is not necessary to invade either now or later, the supply of weapons, etc., and that’s all, let them fight, and then they again accuse of occupation, they have already passed ...
  34. anfil
    20 May 2014 19: 23
    0
    Quote: Rus2012
    I advise you to read this Wikileaks telegram: https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/08MOSCOW265_a.html, which shows that the Kremlin clearly indicated the scenarios that we see today to the Americans in 2008:

    Following the link, I translated one sentence using Google.
    In Ukraine, these include fears that the issue could potentially split the country in two, leading to violence or even, some claim, civil war, which would force Russia to decide whether to intervene. Additionally, the GOR and experts continue to claim that Ukrainian NATO membership would have a major impact on Russia's defense industry, Russian-Ukrainian family connections, and bilateral relations generally.
    In Ukraine, they include fears that the issue could cause the country to split into two parts, leading to violence or even, some argue, a civil war that will force Russia to decide to intervene. In addition, the Russian government and experts continue to argue that Ukrainian NATO membership will have a big impact on the Russian defense industry, Russian-Ukrainian family ties and overall bilateral relations.

    And do you really think that the government did not work out the scenarios and the possible reaction to them?
  35. suharev-52
    suharev-52 20 May 2014 19: 43
    +1
    I read the article with pleasure. Not a bad, balanced forecast. The most important thing for the Russian leadership is to withstand the pressure, which goes in many directions. Everything seems to be used to draw Russia into the conflict. Force her to bring her troops into the territory of Ukraine. But ... glory to the Gods, leadership does not succumb to all their provocations. I want to wish one thing: to withstand and outplay the United States in this game. Sincerely.
  36. Zomanus
    Zomanus 21 May 2014 06: 05
    0
    In short, summer will be hot ... and autumn and winter are very cold for Ukraine. The forecast for Ukraine was such a glimpse, was not in the know was only at the expense of relations with Qatar. Generally interesting of course. And China is apparently aware of this forecast, because they have not agreed on the price of gas so far.
  37. Weniamin
    Weniamin 21 May 2014 08: 33
    0
    How cool everything is involved and tortured. I almost broke my head.