Donbass vs Kiev Euromaidan + Dnepropetrovsk Kaganat. Mobilization alignment
The couch troops, of course, responded to the appeal in their usual manner - each war specialist on the Internet began to write the answer to Strelkov from his cozy trench.
But to argue with Strelkov is senseless - in real, and not in a cozy trench, it is clearly better to see how it really is.
Therefore, the main thing that can and should be analyzed in this case is the mobilization capabilities of all participants in the civil war in Ukraine.
New organizational entities in Ukraine
It is necessary to work out the right attitude to what is happening in Ukraine in order to understand the new political reality. The concepts of "junta", "militia", "separatists" and so on are more emotional and evaluative, allowing to separate "their" and "alien". However, they do not provide a full understanding of what is happening in Ukraine.
So, we are dealing with the collapse of the state and the formation on its territory of several organizational entities with signs of statehood. Moreover, these formations differ in type from each other and are often antagonists. On the territory of Ukraine, the remnants of the state of the modern era (Ukrainian SSR-Ukraine) are actually dismantled, and the situation is rapidly sliding into neo-feudalism. Therefore, it is fundamentally wrong to analyze what is happening on the territory of Ukraine in terms and concepts of political science of the 20th century. It is possible to analyze, but the purity of understanding is unlikely to appear.
So, the majority of Ukraine is controlled by the Kiev Euromaidan, the parliamentary-presidential oligarchy.
On the territory of Dnipropetrovsk and Odessa regions, all power belongs to the financial and industrial group Privat, which is an ally of the Kiev Euromaidan, but already has an independent defense policy and partially a sovereign financial policy. By type, state education is somewhat similar to the medieval Khazaria - therefore, for distinction, we will call this organizational form the Dnipropetrovsk Khaganate.
In the Donbas, two republics were established — Donetsk and Lugansk, which are in close union and intend to soon unite in New Russia. But for the sake of accuracy, we will call them the Donbass Republic for the time being.
Two more organizational formations on the territory of Ukraine - the Republic of Crimea and the hero-city of Sevastopol - existed for several weeks and integrated into the Russian Federation. So far, these two subjects of the federation are developing in the logic of the protectorate and in manual control - because it will take at least a year to fully integrate.
Mobilization opportunities of new formations
The answer to the question about the power and military capabilities of the new state entities in the place of the former Ukraine lies in the real legitimacy. In peacetime, legitimacy is at best a campaign of the population to a support rally. In wartime, legitimacy is expressed in the decision to take weapon and become a volunteer - that is, make an informed decision. Real legitimacy is something like an oath. In peacetime, such an oath is given through elections - when a citizen gives his part of power to another person. That is, delegates the right to be in power.
- The Kiev Euromaidan draws its legitimacy in the main Maidan in Kiev and in regional Maidan in the republic. The peak activity of Euromaidan after the dispersal of "they are children" Berkut = about 500 thousands in Kiev. Plus regional Maidan. It can be considered with a margin = 1,2 – 2 million people.
- The legitimacy of the Republic of Donbass is drawn from the referendum on May 11. Given the 7-million population, with 80% turnout - about 5 million people.
Accordingly, the mobilization capacity of the Donbass is much higher than that of the Kiev Euromaidan.
- The Dnipropetrovsk kaganate does not have any legitimacy at all. For him, no one stood on the Maidan and did not vote in referendums. Therefore, it relies on mercenaries.
The only chance for Kiev Euromaidan and Dnepropetrovsk Kaganat to gain legitimacy is the presidential election of 25 in May. However, in these elections a new republic is not established - and citizens are again offered to make a conditional choice from the same characters. Therefore, it is doubtful that there will be more people willing to go to battle for the commander-in-chief, Poroshenko, than those who want to go to battle for acting today. Turchinov.
This is the real deal. Therefore, no matter how the elections are held, the Donbass Republic will recruit militias - there is enough legitimacy for this. Kaganat will recruit mercenaries. And the Kiev Euromaidan will try to do something with the remnants of the Ukrainian army, which will rapidly run away-who in the militia of Donbass, who in the mercenaries Kaganat. Who is closer in spirit and goals.
- Semen Uralov
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