Military Review

The Pacific Front takes shape. Part of 2

16
Vietnam


China and Vietnam have in the past more than once fought each other. Researchers have almost a dozen wars between Vietnam and China, which in Vietnam are called domestic. Small conflicts were even more. The Sino-Vietnamese war of 1979, in which both sides declared their victory, has not yet faded from memory. Therefore, the current conflict overlaps with long history difficult relationship between the two Asian powers. Because of this, it is impossible to exclude the negative scenario, especially in connection with the growth of general tension in the Asia-Pacific region and in the world.

Normalization of relations between Vietnam and China came only in the 1990-ies, when economic considerations supplanted political ones. For more than two decades, China and Vietnam have developed bilateral relations for mutual benefit. However, in recent years, the situation in the world began to change, and China gained strength, and great-power notes appeared in its policy. China increasingly began to recall its territorial claims against its neighbors, and, relying on a powerful economy and modernized armed forces, is no longer inclined to make concessions.

We must not forget that over the long years of growth of the economies of the Asian powers, they have formed a broad layer of the middle class, which, although far from the American and European middle class, but in its psychology is similar to the Western bourgeoisie. His ideology is nationalism. Vietnamese society regards the actions of China as aggression, which must be answered accordingly. Similar moods reign in China.

The Vietnamese authorities, irritated by the actions of the Chinese and wanting to channel the discontent of people, put pressure on China, weakened control and allowed small demonstrations. However, the protests led to pogroms and a huge surge of discontent, not only in Vietnam, but also in countries where there are numerous Vietnamese diasporas. Hanoi due to the actions of Beijing was faced with a difficult choice. It is impossible not to answer, it will show the weakness of the country and cause discontent among the population, including ethnic Vietnamese outside the country. A foreign policy crisis can also cause an internal political one. On the other hand, given the close economic cooperation between the two countries, the escalation of the conflict to Hanoi is unprofitable.

It is clear that the anti-Chinese pogroms that led to the victims would stir up so strong nationalist sentiments in China. The anti-Japanese pogroms in China, also caused by the territorial disputes of two Asian giants, have already shown the world that the sentiments of the advanced part of the Chinese public have changed a lot. The Chinese wish to receive the fruits of their recent internal victories. Successes in foreign policy should show the whole world the change in the status of the “Middle Empire”. The mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party, the People's Daily newspaper, blamed the pogroms on Hanoi and demanded to ensure the safety of Chinese citizens. Other publications allow themselves and more harsh statements, demanding to punish Vietnam.

As a result, Beijing finds itself in a difficult situation. The population is waiting for a hard response to Vietnam. However, a tough standoff is not beneficial for China. This is a blow to the economy and the emergence of the threat of folding the "anti-Chinese bloc." The United States is not slow to use the situation to strengthen its position in the APR. The United States has been working on the creation of the anti-Chinese “sanitary cordon” for years. China has territorial disputes and historically disputed territories with almost all its neighbors. The stronger the PRC will put pressure on Vietnam, the greater will be rebuffed in Vietnam itself and the greater will be the distrust of China in the region. This is beneficial to the United States.

In addition, strong pressure from China will force Vietnam to more actively seek allies. Vietnam has already become close to India, which also fears the growth of China’s power. There was also a certain convergence of the positions of Vietnam with the United States. The United States already indirectly supports Vietnam in this conflict. So, commenting on the story of the Chinese oil rig, press secretary of the US State Department Jennifer Psaki called China’s actions provocative and not conducive to maintaining peace and stability in the region. And US Secretary of State John Kerry said that China is taking “aggressive and provocative” steps.

Strengthening US Positions in the Philippines

The escalation of the conflict between China and Vietnam took place against a background of a less visible, but also threatening to serious consequences, a clash of interests between China and the Philippines. Thus, Manila filed a complaint against Beijing with the International Court of Justice about the rights to a number of islands in the waters of the region. And recently, the Philippine Foreign Ministry accused China of building an airfield on one of the disputed islands in the Spratly archipelago. The representative of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Philippines, Charles José told reporters that the Chinese have begun preparatory work on the construction of the runway on Johnson Island, which is part of the Spratly archipelago. According to Manila, Beijing is violating the Declaration on the Actions of the Parties in the South China Sea, it is an informal code of conduct for the countries of the entire region. The Philippines protested and raised the issue at the Summit of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), which was recently held in Myanmar. However, not much success was achieved.

At the end of April 2014, US President Barack Obama visited the Philippines. The United States and the Philippines concluded a military pact that allows US troops to use the Philippine bases. In fact, the United States can now restore its military presence in the Philippines. In the Philippines, Americans had bases before 1991, when, due to mass protests, they were forced to leave. Now they are welcome again. American planes and warships can use the military bases of the Philippines. The United States may deploy military contingents and equipment on the islands. True, the Americans did not get the right to import nuclear into the Philippines weapon. Began large-scale joint military exercises. So, more than 2014 thousand American and Filipino military personnel and dozens of units of military equipment take part in the exercises of Balikatan 5 (shoulder to shoulder). The military of the two countries work out the landing of the amphibious assault and work out the search and rescue operations.

The Pacific Front takes shape. Part of 2


The new military pact of the United States and the Philippines has a validity of 10 years and can be extended. Manila took such a step because of the strengthening of Chinese positions in the region. On the maritime border of China and the Philippines, various incidents occur regularly. So, the Filipinos, in order to defend their right to the Bank of Second-Hand Thomas, stranded an old ship and placed a garrison on it (a division of marines). And the Chinese are trying to prevent the change of the garrison and the supply of supplies. Such incidents occur regularly.

The Philippines does not have the financial ability to independently create and maintain powerful armed forces. They are doing everything possible to strengthen their Navy, Air Force, Airborne Forces, and the United States is a great help in this. However, their financial resources are not comparable with the capabilities of Japan, South Korea and Vietnam. Therefore, the American military presence is a kind of guarantee of military security. For this, you can turn a blind eye to the attendant troubles, such as the antics of American marines.

Japan rated this agreement as anti-Chinese. Japanese Secretary General Yoshihide Suga said that the Japanese government supports the military agreement between the United States and the Philippines and hopes that the presence of American troops will help to contain China’s military power. According to Japan, China is constantly increasing its military presence in the East China and South China Seas. In addition, Japan supported the claim of the Philippines to the International Court of Justice on the rights to a number of islands in the waters of the region.

It should be noted that Manila, like other US allies - Tokyo and Taipei, doubt the Americans' readiness to come to their aid in the event of a military conflict with Beijing. The reason for such doubts give the Americans themselves. For example, Deputy Assistant to the President of the United States for National Security Ben Rhodes said that the situation in the South China Sea is more complicated than with the Japanese-owned Senkaku Islands (Diaoyu). Over these islands, the Japanese exercise administrative control. Therefore, according to the American president, they are subject to the Japanese-American security treaty. In the case of a territorial dispute between China and the Philippines, the situation is unclear and is “more hypothetical”.

This makes the American allies nervous. They are not sure that the United States will come to their aid. Good precedents already exist. The United States did not respond to the defeat of Georgia in 2008 and the separation of Abkhazia and South Ossetia from it. The United States could not prevent the reunification of the Crimea with Russia and the creation of the Donetsk and Lugansk republics. Special attention is drawn to the situation with the Crimea. Experts talk about the possibility of the “Crimean scenario” in the Asia-Pacific region. China may try to capture the Senkaku Islands, or it will put pressure on Taiwan. A similar scenario is possible in the South China Sea.

If we recall world history, and many events and processes tend to be repeated, many large wars began like this. Someone had doubts about the strength and determination of the opposite side, it began to seem that the neighbors would not interfere, etc. In particular, Berlin in the 1914 year started the war in full confidence that London would retain neutrality. And the British did their best to show the Germans that they would stand aside. As a result, the world war began. Such chains of mistakes and lead to military-political disasters. In the Pacific, all these conditions exist. In addition, there is the possibility of "accidental" (all the serious prerequisites for a war are already there) of the outbreak of war. Sooner or later someone will open fire. The spark will lead to a general fire, and it will be too late to look for a specific culprit (or provocateur).




Philippine and US military exercises

Russia

Russia in this situation is in some respects on the same position as the United States. We get the opportunity to be the arbiter and everyone needs our support. And it is necessary for China and its rivals. The difference in the positions of Russia and the United States is that we do not benefit from a serious conflict in the APR. The Pacific Front is another zone of instability at our borders. A serious conflict in the Asia-Pacific region carries with it a mass of poorly predictable and negative consequences that will inevitably affect our Far East.

On the other hand, the growth of tension in the region allows us to begin work on restoring the position of one of the leading powers in the region. Russia traditionally stood for peace and justice. Vietnam is our traditional ally, arms buyer and trading partner. But it is also necessary to maintain good relations with China without becoming its “junior partner.” Japan is also interested in Russia.

Be that as it may, Russia needs to make great efforts to seriously strengthen the Pacific fleet, ground forces and the Air Force in the Far East. This will make it possible to secure our Far Eastern borders and strengthen the political weight of the Russian Federation in the Asia-Pacific region. At the same time, it is necessary to solve the demographic and economic problems of the Far East so that it remains Russian in the future.
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The Pacific front takes shape
The Pacific Front takes shape. Part of 2
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  1. Eugeniy_369k
    Eugeniy_369k 19 May 2014 08: 36
    +5
    The situation is slippery. One cannot take sides. China in the Crimea behind the scenes supported, and in Vietnam, economic interests. Here you need to be neat, delicate. It would be necessary
    and the wolves are full, and the sheep are whole, and the shepherd eternal memory

    You understand diplomacy ...
    Py.Sy. A fleet and army in the Far East need to be strengthened.
    1. Gluxar_
      Gluxar_ 20 May 2014 03: 50
      0
      Quote: Eugeniy_369k
      The situation is slippery. One cannot take sides. China in the Crimea behind the scenes supported, and in Vietnam, economic interests. Here you need to be neat, delicate. It would be necessary

      The situation is slippery only if we follow the example of Western countries. There is another scenario. Russia maintains good relations with all countries of the region.
      And it is precisely this fact that allows us to play the role of not a judge, but a peacemaker. What are the disputes between China and its neighbors? For shreds of uninhabited land? For pieces of the shelf, this is certainly more serious, but is this war worth it? Who sows the seeds of war in the region? Only the United States, if countries can solve all problems and start cooperating even more efficiently, then only one country on the planet will lose - this is the United States.

      Russia may conclude an agreement with China this month. The conclusion is obvious - China is a strategic partner. The problems of China and our problems, but we have interests in other countries of the region. By laying out serious joint economic projects on the table, it will be possible to resolve all minor territorial disputes.
  2. mig31
    mig31 19 May 2014 08: 40
    +1
    Toli still wakes up, Russia should keep an eye on it, and understand when and in what place to relieve tension ...
    1. mirag2
      mirag2 19 May 2014 14: 05
      +2
      Common truths.
  3. papont64
    papont64 19 May 2014 08: 52
    0
    During the 79 year conflict, 10% of the population fled west from Vladivostok.
  4. soul
    soul 19 May 2014 09: 04
    +3
    So we again came to the conclusion that the war needs to be moved away from home (for the Ocean and the English Channel). I remember someone promised to organize an Emergencies Center in South America. For starters, it will come down: like a place was scored. Well, develop success.
  5. Nikich
    Nikich 19 May 2014 09: 34
    +3
    Quote: papont64
    During the 79 year conflict, 10% of the population fled west from Vladivostok.

    And still run! but the war is still beneficial to Russia now. Somehow, China has already intensified too much. Whatever happens. And so let them fight with each other
  6. Shpagolom
    Shpagolom 19 May 2014 09: 37
    0
    ... China, using the situation will demonstrate strength ..!
  7. 222222
    222222 19 May 2014 10: 29
    +2
    BEIJING, May 19. / Corr. ITAR-TASS Fedor Zhirov. A cooperation program between the Moscow government and the Beijing people's government for 2014-2016 was signed today in the Chinese capital as part of a visit to Moscow by Mayor of Moscow Sergei Sobyanin.
    http://www.e-news.su/news/11407-kitay-rossiya-stolica-mer-vizit-1.html

    19 May 2014 years, 00: 05
    Keywords: foreign policy, media, China
    In anticipation of the official visit to the People's Republic of China, Vladimir Putin gave an interview to the leading Chinese media.
    http://www.kremlin.ru/news/21031
    On May 20, Vladimir Putin, at the invitation of President Xi Jinping, will pay an official visit to the People’s Republic of China. On May 21, the Russian President will take part in the fourth summit of the Conference on Interaction and Confidence-Building Measures in Asia (CICA), which will be dedicated to strengthening dialogue and coordination in the name of a new, peaceful and stable asia
    http://www.kremlin.ru/news/21015

    = Chinese weapons systems that America should fear ("The National Interest", USA)
    The Chinese economy is booming - as is the army. Should Washington Worry About This?
    Kyle Mizokami (Kyle Mizokami) 7
    ... "These five weapons do not increase the chances of a war - rather, they give a hesitant China more confidence to work with its neighbors and the US. But they can also create the temptation to resolve long-standing territorial disputes in one fell swoop - or create new ones. say for sure: thanks to this weapon, the ball is on the Chinese side. "
    http://inosmi.ru/world/20140518/220380249.html#ixzz328k4nJMJ
    http://nationalinterest.org/feature/five-chinese-weapons-war-america-should-fear
    -10388? Page = show

    = All the same "National Interests" == China's Achilles Heel in the South China Sea ("The National Interest", USA)
    Allen R. Carlson
    http://inosmi.ru/world/20140519/220401755.html#ixzz328krzkiZ
    1. 222222
      222222 19 May 2014 10: 35
      +1
      The apotheosis of US foreign policy .. probably. due to fear of closer rapprochement between Russia and China ..
      English "Guardian"
      "Ukraine: Formation of a New World Order (" The Guardian ", UK)
      The best option for Ukraine and the West would be an agreement with Russia on the refusal of the great powers to participate in resolving this conflict "

      ... “Throughout the Ukraine crisis, the US has repeatedly accused Russia of behaving“ like in the 19th century. ”This has led one leading Russian commentator to suggest that it is time for world leaders to brush up on the basics of 19th century diplomatic art. And he is right. We no longer live in a world in which the West could impose its will on other countries. We returned to the politics of the great powers. Without a doubt, we may openly clash with Vladimir Putin over Ukraine's right to join NATO. But as a result, we we get a split in Ukraine, a lot of economic problems, an angry Russia and a further weakening of the existing world order. The only winners in this game will be countries such as China and Iran. As Henry Kissinger once said, “in the pursuit of virtue, we cannot forget about national security ".
      The best option for Ukraine and the West would be an agreement with Russia on the refusal of the great powers to participate in resolving this conflict, as happened with Finland during the Cold War, and on giving this country the opportunity to independently achieve economic and political success, which can later serve Russia is a role model. And I'm afraid we will have to prepare for more such compromises in the future. "
      ... To admit that the WEST is impotent - the West is still ashamed .. it is better to lead Russia away ... from solving its geopolitical problems ....
      http://inosmi.ru/world/20140519/220401530.html#ixzz328mDngED
  8. cerbuk6155
    cerbuk6155 19 May 2014 10: 56
    +4
    This conflict is, well, not at the right time. Moreover, their main opponent is the United States. They specifically provoked him.
  9. SVAROGE
    SVAROGE 19 May 2014 11: 03
    +1
    If only there was enough patience and wisdom, to stay away from this conflict (China / USA) .... In the future, this will play into Russia's hands ...
    "The enemy of my enemy is MY FRIEND!"
  10. Arkon
    Arkon 19 May 2014 11: 23
    +2
    Russia is now reviving the long-forgotten decision-making traditions. Forgotten, but from this did not become less obvious.
    No need to support this or that side.
    It is necessary to understand the situation and make a decision in truth.

    How much the world has changed, if this, quite obvious, decision does not even come to mind! world politicians?

    Just do the truth. And that’s it!
    1. 222222
      222222 19 May 2014 11: 35
      +1
      Become Echo though. but .. sensible .. "Vietnam is also coming to meet the States more and more - the Americans are ready to admit to the former Soviet naval base Cam Ranh. However, it can be opened for the parking of the Pacific Fleet of the Russian Federation - just to scare the Chinese and get an additional weight on the scales of the regional The prospect of creating at least a blurred anti-Chinese front in the region has become more realistic - Japan is dreaming about it, which is also in a chronic conflict with the PRC.

      But why is Beijing asking for all these joys, which, in essence, has made the current mess? There are a number of reasons, including, of course, China's great interest in the oil and gas resources of the South China Sea. But this is only the very first plan of the problem - more important is what Beijing considers the adjacent seas as strategically important for its security, as a key component of independence and sovereignty. China is a maritime trading power, its imports and exports go primarily along ocean lines. And the PRC is not satisfied with the situation when, for example, some adversary could potentially cut the oil delivery lines from the Middle East. Therefore, Beijing would like to gain overwhelming control over the surrounding waters - and ideally complete. "
      http://www.echomsk.spb.ru/blogs/vgolov/21328.php?commentId=65703
  11. Name
    Name 19 May 2014 11: 31
    +2
    Russia-China, the exercises of the VVM, -et is normal against the background of the usa-japan-yuk ,; so that parity is met. Vietnam there on H.e. r is not needed. recourse
    1. Name
      Name 19 May 2014 16: 25
      0
      Myself and ... Kamran accepted, it is impossible to give. South China ... Not.
  12. wolfhunter2035
    wolfhunter2035 19 May 2014 14: 39
    +1
    Need to do so! China is fighting the United States, we stand by, and after a while we get two weakened opponents, cynically, but alas it is. First of all, take care of your country! And America and China are becoming too aggressive, so we will save a lot of people. sounds cynical, but Si vis pacem, para bellum (want peace, get ready for war)
  13. raf
    raf 19 May 2014 15: 14
    0
    Yes, the situation is not unambiguous and we need to act according to the principle "measure seven times, cut once." In addition, mattress covers exacerbate the situation. They all itch, "hegemon" fucking!
  14. Akvadra
    Akvadra 19 May 2014 15: 14
    0
    Pragmatic Chinese remember both bad and good equally well. Very balanced, very carefully, one might say, delicately in Southeast Asia it is necessary to act. East is a delicate matter (this is about the Far East)
  15. Signaller
    Signaller 19 May 2014 19: 48
    0
    "On May 20, Vladimir Putin will meet in Shanghai with President of the People's Republic of China (PRC) Xi Jinping."
    Apparently, everything is imprisoned for this. Putin’s visit to China, we need to spoil it a little. Apparently, this is the case without the Americans, but it was not without a hitch.
  16. Prjanik
    Prjanik 19 May 2014 21: 50
    0
    PPC, pin.dosy with their incitement to conflict as deliberately pushing Russia and China to a union. And there others will catch up smile
  17. Mih
    Mih 19 May 2014 23: 11
    0
    Quote: Nikich
    During the 79 year conflict, 10% of the population fled west from Vladivostok.

    Rats always run. For rats, rat death. Not when I did not like this breed. am
  18. Legate
    Legate 20 May 2014 00: 52
    0
    In the third photo from above, the case is not Obama (the leftmost fighter)?
    1. Corsair
      Corsair 20 May 2014 06: 15
      0
      Quote: Legate
      In the third photo from above, the case is not Obama (the leftmost fighter)?

      Of course, we can assume that your monitor is monochrome, but not to the same extent laughing ...