Military Review

Saudi Arabian military demonstration: Iran is not the only goal

2
Saudi Arabian military demonstration: Iran is not the only goalThe military maneuvers of Saudi Arabia at the end of last month were evaluated by most experts under the prism of restraining the threat from Iran by Arabians. This was indirectly indicated both by the statements of the representatives of the generals of the largest monarchy of the Persian Gulf, and by the demonstration of certain means of defeat from the Saudi military arsenal. According to the country's chief of staff, Hussein Ibn Abdullah al-Gabayel, the purpose of the exercise was to increase the level of training and to test the capabilities of the armed forces in deterring the attack. Al-Saud family continues to consider Iran as the most likely opponent. Therefore, any reference to "deterring attack" instantly adjusts to the appropriate direction of origin of this threat. The special coloring of the military exercises and the parade of Saudi units and equipment that followed it was given by the fact that 29 showed off medium-range ballistic missiles in April. it weapon It was purchased from China back in the distant 1987 year, but the Arabians decided to demonstrate it to the world only now. The range of missiles (up to 2500 km) and the possibility of filling their warheads with conventional or nuclear weapons led experts to believe that by doing so, the Saudis show the Iranians the seriousness of their intentions in the Persian Gulf and throughout the Middle East region.


Iran’s missile program has achieved significant success in recent years. At the same time, it is important to emphasize, with almost exceptional reliance on local technologies and production facilities. The Saudis didn’t come close to something like this. But they have unlimited financial resources and close military-political ties, for example, with Pakistanis, which allows maintaining a balance of missile deterrence in the region. The adoption of Chinese missiles DF-3s (in the NATO classification - CSS-2) on Saudi weapons was preceded by its own prehistory. American experts emphasize the fact that the United States has provided consent for the supply of missiles from the Middle Kingdom to the Arabian Kingdom only under the condition that they will not be equipped with nuclear warheads. Assuming that the Saudis had nuclear warheads in the distant 1987 year was difficult. After a quarter of a century, this prospect no longer seems unreal. But the Americans continue to insist on the Saudis ’exclusion of plans for nuclear filling their own missiles. So, last year there were reports of the acquisition by Riyadh of Beijing of an improved version of the missiles - DF-21s. Once again, Washington "endorsed" the deal only after receiving further guarantees from the Saudi partners. At the April parade new missiles were not shown. But it was attended by Pakistani generals. A bunch of China - Pakistan - Saudi Arabia is very inconvenient for the United States. It has the potential for self-sufficiency of all the "links" (carrier - warhead - solvent customer), in which the need for American services can simply disappear.

In relations with the Iranians, the Saudis have many contradictions and at the same time everything is extremely clear. What can be said about other issues that concern them in the region and beyond. War with a neighbor is not included in the plans of either Saudi Arabia or Iran. For the latter, a military escalation with the Saudis would mean a return to the situation of the early 1980s, when, during the war with Saddam’s Iraq, the Iranians faced elements of Arab solidarity and interaction. Saudi Arabia has a system of military agreements with the United States and Pakistan on security guarantees and mutual assistance. But the Saudis themselves are no less interested in excluding military clashes with Iranians for a number of reasons. First of all, in view of the continuing likelihood of rapid loosening of the internal foundations of the power of the royal family. Especially in the eastern provinces of the Kingdom, inhabited by Shiites and making the main contribution to the country's oil prosperity.

It has begun to forget that between Iran and Saudi Arabia there is a bilateral security pact signed in 2001. Of course, he is far from an interstate document, which establishes the non-aggression of the parties against each other. But the elements of mutual deterrence are still registered in it. This is indicated by previous years of confrontation between two neighbors, who have never gone over the edge of a direct military conflict between themselves. A case in point is the introduction in March of 2011 of the units of the Saudi army in Bahrain to crush the local Shiite front in the bud. Iran reacted to this attack of Arabians in a hard-judged manner, but exclusively in the language of diplomacy. According to dedicated sources, in the spring of 2011, Tehran did not even go for a substantive consideration of military responses. The Iranian leadership found it extremely unprofitable for itself to fight with Saudi Arabia over Bahrain.

The Iran-Saudi Pact of the Year 2001 is an important factor in the system of maintaining the balance of power in the Middle East. All the trusting contacts of the parties of recent years, and they, admittedly, were prohibitively small, one way or another, derived from the operation of this bilateral document. The visit to Saudi Arabia in December 2011 by the head of the Iranian Ministry of Information (the country's intelligence agency) Heydar Moslehi fits into the mainstream of the parties ’mutual desire to eliminate open confrontation in their relations. The Moslehi mission took place at the peak of awareness of the inevitability of the civil war in Syria, within a few months after the entry of Saudi troops into Bahrain.

With the resignation of Bandar Ben Sultan from the post of head of intelligence in Saudi Arabia, there were expectations of detente in Iran-Saudi relations, their transition to a less accented level. The person of Ben Sultan was closely associated with the policy of Riyadh hostile to Tehran in Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq. However, well-known experts in the Middle East do not recommend building far-reaching conclusions from this personnel decision of the Saudi authorities in favor of a qualitative improvement in relations with the Iranians.

While recognizing in the demonstration by the Saudis of their military capabilities, a significant signal towards the Iranians, however, it is necessary to point out other motives of Riyadh. Military exercises and a parade were held on the eve of the parliamentary elections in Iraq, in close proximity to the Iraqi-Saudi border (in the area of ​​responsibility of the military base of Hafr al-Batin Saudi Arabia). Al-Saud unwilling to again see the government of Nuri al-Maliki in Baghdad, with whom they clearly did not have a relationship. The current Iraqi prime minister in the midst of the election campaign made an angry tirade addressed personally to the Saudis. Al-Maliki accused the guardians of two Islamic shrines in Mecca and Medina of interfering in the internal affairs of a sovereign state. The Saudis are not doing well with their former close partners in the Gulf Cooperation Council. First of all, with the Qatari.

Saudi Arabia’s ambition to lead the Arab world is increasingly annoying its neighbors. Taking advantage of the instability of the region at once from several of its key points (Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen), the Saudis decided to monopolize their rights to determine the pan-Arab agenda, dictate their dominance to all Sunnis and Arabs of the Middle East. It is in this direction that the latest fundamental decisions of Riyadh, taken against radical Islamic associations, fit. Even relatively moderate (against the background of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, Dzhebhat al-Nusra, Al-Qaeda) and received political recognition from individual states, the Muslim Brotherhood were outlawed by the Saudis. In the face of the fight against disorder in the Arab world, military exercises and parades give the Arabian monarchy important elements for self-affirmation in the role of regional leader.

Nor should we lose sight of the oil motivation of the military demonstration of the al-Saud family. Her well-being and existence itself as the ruling clan is closely dependent on the supply to the world market of large volumes of "black gold". Analysts of the world oil market predict the OPEC leader a difficult period in hydrocarbon production this summer. Seasonal increase in domestic demand, as well as continuing problems in Libya, will force the Saudis to raise production above 10 million barrels per day and keep it at this level during the summer months. And to protect the most capacious oil “barrels” of the region, an appropriate level of possession of modern weapons and military equipment and combat skills of the Saudi army are necessary. In terms of combat capability, having experience of participation in local and large-scale military campaigns, the armed forces of the Kingdom have a noticeable deficit. Meanwhile, the number of accumulated weapons arsenals, their qualitative composition, the availability of security guarantees from the main external partners instill confidence in the al-Saud family of tomorrow.

Thus, the gaining Saudi policy of demonstrating their own power is not caused solely by targets in the Iranian direction. Saudi Arabia faces more pressing issues of external and internal, political and economic nature than absolutely unpromising involvement in confrontational relations with Iran.
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2 comments
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  1. delfinN
    delfinN 15 May 2014 18: 06
    +10
    I will exhibit here too.
    1. Rohon
      Rohon 15 May 2014 18: 51
      +3
      If so, then a big plus soldier
  2. Silkway0026
    Silkway0026 15 May 2014 18: 13
    +7
    Why are the Saudis jerking? Because they know where they cheated ... and they know that Iran knows about it.
    1. Vitaly Anisimov
      Vitaly Anisimov 15 May 2014 18: 21
      +5
      Quote: Silkway0026
      Why are the Saudis jerking? Because they know where they cheated ... and they know that Iran knows about it.

      With this Ukraine, we have forgotten the Saudis (and they will still answer for everything) We will force them to restore Syria at our own expense ..
    2. Vitaly Anisimov
      Vitaly Anisimov 15 May 2014 18: 21
      +2
      Quote: Silkway0026
      Why are the Saudis jerking? Because they know where they cheated ... and they know that Iran knows about it.

      With this Ukraine, we have forgotten the Saudis (and they will still answer for everything) We will force them to restore Syria at our own expense ..
      1. Ased
        Ased 15 May 2014 18: 25
        +2
        What are their sheikhs missing? They sit on oil, fatten, they are friends with the United States ... Have you decided to play war?
        1. The comment was deleted.
        2. andj61
          andj61 15 May 2014 19: 51
          +1
          Quote: ASed
          What are their sheikhs missing? They sit on oil, fatten, they are friends with the United States ... Have you decided to play war?
          Everything is much more interesting here. The first plan, of course, is the confrontation with Iran (another religion, a common gulf, the same hopes for leadership in the Islamic world, etc. The second plan is opposition to Israel; Israel's very existence is a challenge to the Islamic world. The third plan is an attempt to maintain first hegemony, and then at least the status quo in the region and the Arab world - the positions of the Saudis are weakening, Iran and Israel - are strengthening.
          The availability of funds and a decently armed army does not make Saudi Arabia a hegemon in the region - the army does not have even the slightest experience, and the Saudi fighters are worthless. The royal family is well aware that their army will not be able to enter into conflict with Israel, since in this case the United States will be on the side of the latter. However, the only goal that can unite the Arabs is the destruction of Israel.
          In short, Saudi Arabia is now in the position of a monkey from an anecdote:
          The lion summoned all the animals and orders: "And now all the animals are divided! Smart to the right, beautiful to the left!" The animals parted to the sides, only the monkey remained in the middle. Leo asks: "Well, why don't you become?" "And I am smart and beautiful! What do I need now - to burst out ???"
    3. Gluxar_
      Gluxar_ 15 May 2014 18: 27
      +3
      Quote: Silkway0026
      Why are the Saudis jerking? Because they know where they cheated ... and they know that Iran knows about it.

      The Saudis have been twitching for a long time, since they realized that the United States is not their friend on a permanent basis. If the US bets on Iran, the Saudis' fears are justified. The confrontation between Sunnis and Shiites is unlikely to fade away anytime soon. The Shiites in history have never been as strong as they are today and it is unlikely that they will miss their chance to dominate the region. The growth of Shiite opportunities in Iraq plays into the hands of Iran. Syria has withstood and will deploy weapons of war against the aggressors, in one form or another. The Saudi power is coming to an end and they are trying to rebuild before it's too late.
    4. ZU-23
      ZU-23 15 May 2014 18: 43
      0
      Quote: Silkway0026
      Why are the Saudis jerking? Because they know where they cheated ... and they know that Iran knows about it.

      Everywhere they shit together with the Americans, except for European countries.
    5. The comment was deleted.
  3. fvandaku
    fvandaku 15 May 2014 18: 22
    +2
    The Pakistan-Saud link. Arabia, with the support of Greater China, will sooner or later come out of US tutelage. They have long been trying to pursue an independent policy.
    1. Cpa
      Cpa 15 May 2014 21: 35
      0
      Great comment good this three have sang and danced for a long time. Strange as it sounds, but at the moment, Turkey can interfere with them. Therefore, there are now demonstrations, they are expelling from the army of secular, mines .. The most important thing for Russia is neither the strengthening of Iran, nor the Saudis, Turkey isn’t profitable. China is not a gift either, but it can be negotiated for a short time. Whatever the winner, there will be a karachun to choose from - radical Shiism, Wahhabism or Ottoman nationalism. Russian politicians decided that Chinese is safer and sell oil at 45 $ coming 35 years.
  4. sv68
    sv68 15 May 2014 18: 24
    +3
    yes, all the Arabs would get together and give the Saudis all over Arabia so that those bastards settle down forever. Give the Maidan in al-riyadh angry
  5. Vlad Gore
    Vlad Gore 15 May 2014 18: 40
    +2
    ... the demonstration on April 29 of medium-range ballistic missiles. This weapon was purchased from China back in 1987 ...
    I still beg you, do not tell my slippers. What was so "serious" you could buy from China back in 1987? China and now makes mostly not entirely successful copies of foreign weapons. winked
  6. Vitaly Anisimov
    Vitaly Anisimov 15 May 2014 18: 41
    0
    Quote: sv68
    yes, all the Arabs would get together and give the Saudis all over Arabia so that those bastards settle down forever. Give the Maidan in al-riyadh angry

    The Saudis are tightly coupled with the United States and Israel ... So you have to choose ... bully And Russia is still weak en masse.
    1. And Us Rat
      And Us Rat 15 May 2014 19: 47
      +2
      Quote: MIKHAN
      The Saudis with the United States are tightly coupled and Israel ...

      YUSA is playing the good old game "both yours and ours," on the one hand, it keeps the appearance of a truce between us and the Saudis, and on the other hand, it gets on the nerves of us and the Saudis "so as not to relax," which YUSA is very happy with.

      The only thing that spoils YUSA all the "raspberries" is that they cannot put pressure on a nuclear power as much as they would like, today the situation for them is complicated by the fact that Israel is half a step away from energy independence, as well as huge Chinese investments that are banally ousted from the Israeli Western capital markets.

      We have been grabbing them for any reason lately, they think that we break their hands at any opportunity, trying to make them not hurt our interests in pursuit of their own (they are not used to reckoning with someone), and Kerry with his peace initiative made an incompetent idiot deliberately (from the first day, knowing that the Palestinians would not sign anything).
      This is in principle natural, any country strives for full diplomatic independence, without unnecessary "masters" in its region, especially if they do not belong to this region.
      1. Kasym
        Kasym 15 May 2014 21: 02
        +3
        Rarely do I express my opinion on the Middle East. But it seems that the Arab-Israeli conflict is supported by the US and the EU (to a lesser extent) artificially or deliberately in order to act as a judge and be irreplaceable. Themselves would have decided everything long ago. Already fought several times.
        CA-US oil barrel. And he won't let anyone get into this barrel. In the Arab Spring, the United States once again reminded who is who and what they can do. Will sweep away this Saudi monarchy as a last resort. Even after the Second World War, the States of the Saudis tied up with their petrodollar. So there is no need to talk about an independent foreign policy of the SA. They are puppets. Of course the Saudis have a "field for maneuvers", but very narrow - they are on a leash.
        I remember that either the Minister of Defense or someone else (responsible for the purchase of weapons) from the SA came to Moscow about the purchase of a large batch of weapons. So it was quickly removed, either trampled or simply pushed in.
        1. And Us Rat
          And Us Rat 16 May 2014 05: 06
          0
          Quote: Kasym
          Rarely do I express my opinion on the Middle East. But it seems that the Arab-Israeli conflict is supported by the US and the EU (to a lesser extent) artificially or deliberately in order to act as a judge and be irreplaceable ...

          Is this news to you? Geyropa is the main sponsor of pro-Palestinian "human rights movements", which are in fact sponsors of terrorist organizations.
          Hamas insolently plunders the European "humanitarian aid" to the Gaza Strip, half of it ends up in the personal accounts of all "sheikhs", the second half is bought by weapons, and a fig with a poppy reaches the ordinary residents of the sector.

          The European Organization for Human Rights yells about every arrested Palestinian terrorist as a holy martyr, and turns a blind eye to the millions brutally killed in ethnic cleansing in Africa, hundreds of thousands of civilian victims in Syria, mass executions in Iran and North Korea, thousands killed by the Taliban in Iraq and Afghanistan, discrimination against women in Saudi, Yemen and Libya, now also for victims in Ukraine ...

          For example - a couple of hundred wounded with rubber bullets, when accelerating, throwing stones at cars CIVIL Israelis - received more attention and "angry resolutions" than MILLION KILLED in Rwanda GENOCIDE...

          I think further explanations are superfluous.
  7. Vlad Gore
    Vlad Gore 15 May 2014 18: 55
    +1
    Quote: MIKHAN
    The Saudis are tightly coupled with the United States and Israel ..
    This is an external impression. You and I didn't "hold a candle" to be sure how "strong" everything was there. request
  8. kelevra
    kelevra 15 May 2014 18: 58
    0
    It is not clear what the Saudis are hoping for, do they think the United States will always be allies with them? Experts in the United States have already said that Saudi Arabia is like a bone in the throat, there is a lot of oil and other resources, and the United States gets little, so wars are waged around and then, like a sneaker, the Saudis will be slammed! Americans hate everyone, especially blacks and Arabs, how can you think that the union is beneficial to these two countries. While the Saudis are flirting with the United States and trying in every way to help them in putting pressure on Iran, they will be on horseback as soon as Iran is gone, that's it, the Khan and Saudi Arabia!