Military Review

Expert: China will attack Russia with probability 95-99%

152


- The question is not whether China will attack Russia, but when? This is an article by a well-known military expert, deputy director of the Institute for Political and Military Analysis, Alexander Khramchikhin.

The author believes that if large-scale military aggression in the “classical” form will ever be committed against Russia, then China will be the aggressor with a probability of 95% (if not 99,99%).

RIA "New Region" gives the text in full.

There are people for whom the disappearance of the Amazon forest is a problem. Others do not care. There are people for whom the disappearance of atomic loudspeakers is a problem. Others do not care. There are people for whom the disappearance of whales is a problem. Others do not care. There are people for whom the disappearance of Russia is a problem. We all do not care.

China's colossal overpopulation, combined with its rapid economic growth, creates a complex set of problems, for a very brief description of which a large separate article is required. Moreover, the interrelation of these problems is such that the decision of some aggravates others. China is objectively unviable in its current borders. It should become much more if it does not want to become much less. It cannot do without external expansion to seize resources and territories, such is the reality. You can turn a blind eye to her, but she is not going anywhere.

In addition, there is no need to imagine that Southeast Asia will become the main direction of China's expansion. There is quite a bit of territory and resources, with a lot of local population. The opposite situation - a lot of territory, huge resources, very little population - exists in Kazakhstan and the Asian part of Russia. And this is where China's expansion will go. Moreover, the trans-Ural territories of the Russian Federation in China are considered to be their own. A brief description of the relevant Chinese historical concepts can be devoted to another long article. Only a person who has absolutely no idea what China and the Chinese are can believe that the border problem between the Russian Federation and the PRC has been resolved.

Of course, for China, the peaceful form of expansion (economic and demographic) is preferable. But the military is not excluded. It is extremely significant that in recent years the Chinese army has been conducting exercises that it is simply impossible to interpret as preparations for aggression against Russia, and the scale of the exercises (spatial scale and number of troops involved) is constantly growing.

At the same time, apparently, we still do not realize that we have long lost not only quantitative but also qualitative superiority over China in military equipment. In Soviet times, we had both, and this, as the “microwaves” behind Damanski showed, compensated for China’s tremendous superiority in manpower.

Carl from Clara stole corals

China lived for a very long time by giving it the USSR in the 1950's - the beginning of the 1960's. However, after warming relations with the West, he gained access to some samples of American and European technology, and from the end of the 1980-x began to acquire the latest technology in the USSR, and then in Russia, thanks to this, in many classes, "jumping over" a generation. In addition, China has always had the exceptional ability to steal technology. In 1980, Chinese intelligence even managed to obtain in the United States blueprints of the latest W-88 warhead from a Trident-2 ballistic missile for submarines. And as usual, China steals equipment in large quantities.

For example, nothing is known about the fact that Russia sold the PRC multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) Smerch or, all the more, a license to manufacture them. Nevertheless, the Chinese Army first appeared the MLRS A-100, very similar to the Smerch, and then the PHL-03 - its full copy. The self-propelled artillery installation of the Tour 88 (PLZ-05) is very similar to our "Mstu", which we again did not sell in the PRC. We never sold China a license to manufacture the C-300 anti-aircraft missile system, which did not prevent the Chinese from copying it under the name HQ-9. However, the French, for example, successfully stole the Crotal anti-aircraft missile system, the Exochet anti-ship missile, the M68 shipboard artillery, and so on.

Synthesizing foreign technologies and adding something of their own, the Chinese military-industrial complex begins to create fairly original samples: the Tourn 95 anti-aircraft missile system (PGZ-04), the PLL-05 and PTL-02 self-propelled guns, and the BMP ZBD-05, etc.



Made in China

In general, as has already been said, in almost all classes of conventional weapons, the qualitative superiority of Russia is a thing of the past. In some ways, China even got around us - for example, in drones and in rifle weapons. The Chinese are gradually changing the Kalashnikovs to the latest automatic rifles created according to the bullpup scheme based on both the same AK and Western rifles (FA MAS, L85).

Moreover, although some experts believe that China is technologically dependent on the Russian Federation as its main supplier of weapons (therefore, it cannot attack us), this is a pure myth.

China acquired in Russia only such weapons, which were intended for operations against Taiwan and the United States (while Beijing was seriously planning an operation to seize the island). It is obvious that a sea war between the PRC and the Russian Federation is almost impossible, there is no need for either side or the other. The war will be ground character.

In this regard, it should be noted that China did not acquire any equipment in Russia for its ground forces, since it will be used against Russia in the event of war.

Even in the field of the Air Force, China got rid of its dependence on the Russian Federation. He bought in Russia a limited number of Su-27 fighter jets - in total 76 units, of which 40 is Su-27UB. From such a unique ratio of combat and combat training vehicles, it is quite obvious that Russian-made Su-27 were purchased for flight crew training. Then, as is known, China abandoned the licensed production of Su-27 from Russian components, having built only 105 aircraft from the planned 200. At the same time, he copied this fighter and began its unlicensed production called J-11В with its own engines, weapons and avionics. Moreover, if in China 1960-s copying of the Soviet samples was their deliberate primitivization, then J-11В, judging by the available data, is almost no worse than Su-27.

It may be noted that in recent times, China’s military-technical cooperation with Russia is being curtailed. In part, this can be explained by the fact that the rapidly degrading Russian military industrial complex is no longer able to offer China the weapons and equipment that it needs. Another explanation is that Beijing is seriously considering the possibility of conducting combat operations against the RF Armed Forces in the foreseeable future.

Since the J-11B in its tactical and technical characteristics is approximately equal to the Su-27, and created on the basis of the Israeli “Lavi”, but using Russian and its own technologies, the J-10 is quite comparable to the MiG-29, we have no qualitative superiority in the air . A quantitative superiority will certainly be on the side of China, especially given the almost complete collapse of the Russian air defense system (primarily in the Far East). According to the Su-30, it will be generally overwhelming: China has more than 120, ours - 4. The main drawback of the Chinese aviation - the absence of normal attack aircraft and attack helicopters, but this will not be a big disaster for them, because on land the situation for Russia is even worse.



Mass effect

Best chinese Tanks - Ture 96 and Ture 99 (aka Ture 98G) - practically no worse than our best tanks - T-72B, T-80U, T-90. Actually, they are all “close relatives,” and therefore their characteristics are very close. At the same time, the leadership of the Russian Defense Ministry has already announced the actual liquidation of our tank troops. Tanks throughout Russia should remain 2000. China has about the same number of modern tanks now. There are much more numerous (at least 6000) old tanks (from Ture 59 to Ture 80), created on the basis of the T-54. They are quite effective in the fight against infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers, as well as to create a "mass effect". It is likely that the PLA command uses these very machines for the first strike. All the same, they will inflict some kind of losses on us, and most importantly, they will divert our anti-tank weapons, after which an exhausted and weakened defense will be hit with the use of already modern technology. By the way, in air, a similar "mass effect" can create old fighters of the J-7 and J-8 types.

That is, according to modern models of armaments, the Armed Forces of Russia and the Chinese Army now have approximate equality (qualitative and quantitative), which confidently (and not very slowly) turns into the advantage of the Chinese army. At the same time, the latter has a huge “overhang” of old, but still quite “good” samples, which are perfect as an “expendable” material to wear out the defense of the Russian troops. Due to the presence of such a unique problem in China as the “shortage of brides”, the loss of several hundred thousand young males for the Chinese leadership seems to be not only a problem, but a blessing. And certainly not the problem of "recycling" in the battle of several thousand units of outdated armored vehicles.

Already, only two of the seven military districts of the Chinese army - Beijing and Shenyang, adjacent to the border with Russia - are stronger than all the Armed Forces of Russia (from Kaliningrad to Kamchatka). And at the potential theater of military operations (Trans-Baikal and the Far East), the forces of the parties are simply incomparable, China surpasses us not even times, but dozens of times. In this case, the transfer of troops from the west in the event of a real war will be almost impossible, since Chinese saboteurs are guaranteed to cut the Trans-Siberian at once in many places along its length, and we don’t have other communications with the east (we can transport people by air, but not heavy equipment) .

Tanks are not our fast

At the same time, and in combat training, especially in units and formations equipped with the most modern equipment, the Chinese army has long bypassed us. Thus, in the 38 Army of the Beijing Military District, the artillery is fully automated, it is still inferior in accuracy to the American, but already surpassed the Russian. The rate of advance of the 38 Army reaches 1000 km per week (150 km per day).

Accordingly, in an ordinary war we have no chances. Unfortunately, nuclear weapons do not guarantee salvation, because China also has them. Yes, while we have superiority in strategic nuclear forces, but they are rapidly declining. At the same time, we do not have medium-range ballistic missiles, but China does have them, which almost eliminates their lag in intercontinental ballistic missiles (which is also declining). The ratio of tactical nuclear weapons is unknown, only you need to understand that we will have to use it on our own territory. As for the exchange of strategic nuclear forces, the Chinese potential is more than enough to destroy the main cities of European Russia, which they do not need (there are many people and few resources). There are very strong suspicions that, understanding this, the Kremlin will not go for the use of nuclear weapons. Therefore, nuclear deterrence against China is the same myth as its technological dependence on us. Learn Chinese
Author:
Originator:
http://www.nr2.ru
152 comments
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  1. figwam
    figwam 13 May 2011 20: 03
    +5
    China has the main enemy of the United States, for this they are making aircraft carriers.
    Southeast Asia to Australia, arms precisely against China, the main hostilities will be there, they need to push the Pindos out of this region.
    Although China built a great highway to our borders, why?
    1. Script editor
      Script editor 13 May 2011 20: 55
      +2
      I am opposed to the bloating of the problem, because if we all go crazy with fear of the threat, we ourselves will create either the prerequisites for an attack or from fear, we will make concessions, which in territorial terms, as in any other.
      BUT (analyzing information flows as a layman),
      if you imagine that the banking capital of all known people (figuratively the United States) with a common interest, will penetrate (or already) and grow together with the Chinese elite, then we can safely assume their mutual plans for the division of the Russian Federation.
      The eastern part of the Russian Federation - to China, and there will be an enormous "PLANT" (their population, but our resources); and the Western part of the Russian Federation - 52 US states (with a more or less comfortable climate and an agreement on a reduced price of resources). Something like this..
      Therefore, I do not really hope for a real confrontation between China and America. If only India and China, it is quite mb to be. But again, if America intervenes, then the Muslim question of India can be resolved in its favor, for the sake of the "huge pie".
      1. XZS
        XZS 9 October 2017 20: 01
        +2
        But from China to Birabidzhan a stone's throw recourse
        1. Nikon
          Nikon 7 March 2018 03: 40
          0
          And Zhmerinka is not far away. It depends on what you measure ... :-) [/ quote]
      2. 73bor
        73bor 12 October 2017 08: 41
        +1
        A little article about the overpopulation of China raises several questions at once, and has anyone heard about the population census in China? According to the last census of 1949, a little more than 500 million people lived in China, with women and girls of all ages about 200 million, explain to me how you can increase the population by several times in the absence of any social infrastructure and fairly decent mortality? By the way, notice about the alleged dominance of the Chinese throughout the Far East twenty years ago, but after working for some time the Chinese leave home almost without assimilation in Russia, the Chinese population is rapidly aging!
        1. Lycan
          Lycan 17 October 2017 17: 15
          0
          For overpopulation - I will not say, but here it is (http://www.politnavigator.net/v-kitae-otmenili-p
          ravilo-odna-semya-odin-rebenok.html) cannot really please. They will multiply like hares, and there will not be enough space there. And really bad ideas about the resettlement of "more northern, but freer" obviously appear.
        2. Yanakolos
          Yanakolos 11 December 2017 14: 11
          +1
          Absolutely correctly say, I’ll add about the law for a long time prohibiting having two children ... and where did the figure of more than a billion come from? Yes, in the villages, Chinese women gave birth not one at a time, of course, but they did not give birth to 1,4 billion.
          It’s just politically convenient and profitable to make the enemy believe that “there are a lot of us” ... :))
        3. Cjklfn
          Cjklfn 7 March 2018 11: 57
          +1
          Sheer nonsense! China after what is high ... but will remain face to face with the whole world, and most importantly with the United States and its satellites. Now, the alliance with Russia is strategic and Russia plays in it, according to Sheikh Omar Hussein, the role of the ridge of this coalition. Without Russia, China will not stand, because it is the main competitor in world markets and its elimination is the main goal of world sharks in this market. There are many other reasons for the cooperation between Russia and China.
    2. g1v2
      g1v2 9 October 2017 13: 52
      +2
      Silk Road. request For our part, we are also actively building transport infrastructure in order to allow Chinese transit to Europe through ourselves.
      Well, about the article. The rapprochement between China and the Russian Federation is not pleasant to many. Tk the second and third armies of the world together surpass NATO in power, and most importantly in response time. It is easier for two general staffs to agree, in which case joint actions than two and a half dozen, even if two dozen of them do not decide anything. So you need to pit potential allies. Divide and rule. Nothing new. I think that a series of articles about the Russian threat or that is also being published in China. that the Russians will betray them if that. belay
      Well, about the demographics. then everything happens just the opposite. The Chinese flock to cities, not free lands. Cities are work and a higher standard of living. PM migration flows in China, on the contrary, flow from less populated areas to more populated ones - to hive cities.
      But of course you can’t relax. Friendship is friendship, but do not tempt neighbors with your weakness. To strengthen the army, navy and military-industrial complex is an urgent need. soldier
    3. XZS
      XZS 9 October 2017 19: 58
      +1
      America China is not the enemy they have no territorial problems tavarobarot between China and America 2 trillion dollars is a hundred times more than with Russia
      1. Sanichsan
        Sanichsan 28 March 2018 13: 11
        0
        has already. called trading won wink
        or they don’t tell you about it?
    4. spiriolla-45
      spiriolla-45 11 February 2018 12: 05
      0
      When they master Siberia, they will be able to compete with the united west. One consolation is that the Communists rule there. You really need to learn Chinese.
    5. barik92090
      barik92090 6 January 2019 20: 52
      0
      Yes, and penguins at the southern end, too, are eyeing the Arctic coast of the Laptev Sea. Suspiciously.
  2. Andrei
    Andrei 13 May 2011 20: 05
    +4
    The problem is really serious, I spoke with our military Strategic Missile Forces, who was in China. Chinese geographical maps have been issued for several years with borders marked on the Ural Mountains. For what I bought, for that I sold ... like this ... It remains to wait for expansion ...
    1. alexander -57
      alexander -57 13 May 2011 21: 58
      +2
      Vietnamese in all ages beat the Chinese when they attacked them so do not be afraid
    2. XZS
      XZS 9 October 2017 22: 58
      +2
      the Chinese are the number one enemy of India and Russia, but there is no reason for them to go to India and there’s one and a half billion people, but to the deserted Far East, well, Kazakhstan should be afraid of them and America they are not enemies at all, and we Israelis too
      1. The comment was deleted.
    3. free_flier
      free_flier 1 February 2018 17: 51
      +2
      Balabol, pilatt ... "the military from the Strategic Missile Forces, who was in China" ... only a complete sucker could write such a thing.
      My last complex was destroyed in the distant 89th year, and we were not given a visa until the end of the 90s.
      Or did you want to say that the Strategic Missile Forces traveled to share their experience ???
  3. Engineer
    Engineer 13 May 2011 22: 30
    +5
    Alexander

    Germans, too, have been beaten all over the ages.
    However, this did not stop them from destroying the Great Rome.
    Paris capture.
    And 30 million Soviet people did not fill up very long ago.
    (There is an assumption that the USSR was bent due to the removal of the best gene pool in that war, and the opportunists remained)
    The Chinese, of course, will not capture all of Russia, but they can very much destroy Pts.
  4. East
    East 13 May 2011 23: 54
    +14
    But I don’t understand - why do China need Siberia and the Far East? People, the last time you looked at a map? The simplest question is, why Russia has not been able to develop these lands for three hundred years? Ever wonder? And why could not China master these lands for the same three hundred years? To get started, take at least class 9 maps and look at the population density on these lands. It will probably be clear that living there really is not so easy, especially for the thermophilic Chinese. And the roads there are very expensive and difficult to build, as well as any other infrastructure. And so on, so on, so on ... But China does not look to the north, but to the south. There are no less reserves, they are more accessible, and the climate is suitable.
    And one more thing about nuclear weapons. Who said that we will use it on our territory? Unscientific fiction! NF will be used on the territory of the aggressor, and if it is the territory of the PRC, then the eternal empire of the Celestial Empire will go into oblivion. And how do we like to categorically declare that the Kremlin will not do this. He wants to live - not only will he go, but will be the first to use nuclear weapons. How many screams were there — yes, Georgia, let Abkhazia, South Ossetia break the hot-water bottle, and we get around, don’t interrupt, we’ll be afraid of the USA, NATO and generally Georgians are the best warriors in the post-Soviet space, the Pindos have learned them! And what? The Georgians hacked, the tanks took away, the boats sank, and to the heap the Amer’s chameras took away, which came to hand. According to the logic of such authors, Siberia, and even there, our leaders should have given all Russia to damned enemies yesterday. However, they do not give away something, do not sell, and do not betray, to spite everyone. So you don’t need to learn Chinese, but Russian will not hurt the Chinese.
    1. XZS
      XZS 9 October 2017 20: 00
      0
      heat-loving Chinese live perfectly in Canada, there is the largest community and almost all of them are from the south of China from Hong Kong
      1. HDZ
        HDZ 9 October 2017 22: 55
        +3
        If we take into account that 98% of the inhabitants of Canada live near the border from the United States, at the level of Volgograd, for the Chinese it’s cold, but tolerable.
        In summer, they walk in St. Petersburg in down jackets. But they do not like the sharply continental climate of Siberia.
        1. XZS
          XZS 9 October 2017 22: 59
          0
          in Toronto and Vancouver, there can be minus 40 and the climate in Siberia, the beautiful Lake Baikal is no worse than the great lakes in Canada
        2. Penguin
          Penguin 5 March 2018 23: 30
          0
          naive, have you been to the Far East? I pulled an urgent term 10 years ago, even then they were there more than dofiga. Primorye and the south of Khabar. edges for them
    2. andrew42
      andrew42 19 October 2017 08: 46
      +3
      Empty land of the Far East. Poor infrastructure. All finances are in New Jerusalem ..., oh, sorry, in Moscowbad. Genetic venality of the current Russian "elita". You can be complacent as much as you like, but the Far East and Eastern Siberia are an overripe apple that is about to fall under China’s feet itself. Keep in mind that the Chinese are not Western European “Erbins” (R1b) for you. Geyropeytsy conclude agreements, and then begin to think about how to distort them in their favor. The Chinese conclude agreements without initially intending to implement them, denounce them silently, as soon as the overall risk of "getting by hare / losing loot" is reduced. And China is the largest economic partner of the United States. The Rothschilds money is a technological revolution in China, the money of Chinese financial bonzes is in the USA. The effectiveness of symbiosis is reduced solely due to the mutual contempt of the "right golden people" of the Celestial Empire and the "chosen people" who rule the American Kaganate.
    3. free_flier
      free_flier 1 February 2018 17: 59
      +2
      When I served in ZabVO, we went hunting for familiar huntsmen, peasants laughed at our TOZs and gave us hunting cavalry carbines from the Civil War ... To the legitimate question - are there so many good things in their village, they answered that the whole village enough weapons and ammunition for a week to keep the Chinese, while regular troops arrive in time ...
      1. Penguin
        Penguin 5 March 2018 23: 31
        0
        laughing cool joke
    4. spiriolla-45
      spiriolla-45 11 February 2018 12: 17
      0
      That's right, there will be no intervention. But there will be expansion. Putin kicked out the North Koreans, so the Chinese will come even more. Someone needs to work. YES, one more thing. The Chinese are also different, there are frost-resistant peoples.
      1. Penguin
        Penguin 5 March 2018 23: 32
        0
        Harbin is not warmer than swag
  5. datur
    datur 14 May 2011 01: 05
    +1
    East,well done.
  6. datur
    datur 14 May 2011 01: 06
    +2
    East,well done.
  7. cabin boy
    cabin boy 14 May 2011 02: 05
    +14
    For pissed after reading the fabrications of an analyte by the name of Khramchikhin, take a map of the population density in China and see with your own eyes. The main population is concentrated on the east coast (this is probably such a tactical move that the Russians would not have guessed that they would be attacked). The population density there is greater than in the European part of Russia. So what is the reason to naughty on their territory with nuclear weapons?
    Before rewriting the stupid thoughts of any grant suckers, they would ask on the Internet what the people think about the "famous military expert" - "Paranoidly obsessed with the Chinese threat, he adjusts all his thoughts to this idea based on innocent facts. Invents absurd scenarios of an imminent Chinese invasion of the Russian Federation At the same time, he assures that NATO has been catastrophically weakened and does not pose any threat. He does not understand military equipment and makes stupid blunders in articles. " http://www.onolitegi.ru/2010-02-02-17-33-09/61-hramchihin.html
  8. mitrich
    mitrich 14 May 2011 05: 30
    +8
    This is where Osta, datur and "Yungi" have such a confident steadfastness in the peacefulness of the PRC, in the categorical unwillingness of the Chinese to "freeze" in Siberia and the Far East? Although I understand. Judging by the broadcast time, you are residents of the very regions that our "good" neighbors "do not care about". Apparently, the constant walking among the crowds of all arriving and arriving short, small, smiling people, constantly bowing and saying: "Ni hao", made you so carelessly happy. And the Chinese red "cowards" do not press you ...
    And why did the Fuehrer in 1941 need to "shove" to Murmansk and freeze near Moscow in the autumn of the same year? For what purpose? It's cold here and the roads are crappy ...
    It's just that our neighbors really like our territories, even in this "undeveloped" and primitive state. I like what lies under this earth and what grows on this earth. They only dislike those who live in these territories.
    The author is 100% right, ready to subscribe to his every word, despite all his possible "bloopers" in the past. In order to understand this, you do not need to "professorially" understand the performance characteristics of various types of our or "not our" weapons.
    PS I'll go for now, "dry" my pants ...
    1. AK
      AK 17 May 2011 11: 11
      +2
      Well, the Fuhrer sought to get to Murmansk not because of tropical conditions, but because this city was the strategic rescue of our country. Without this base, it would be extremely difficult
    2. badens1111
      badens1111 8 October 2017 21: 49
      +3
      Quote: mitrich
      I’ll go, “dry” my pants ...

      That's right, take Leha bulk with the author of this opus with you.
      It’s not enough for us, Khramchikhin, who was perplexed by the imaginary Chinese threat, so yet another Ekhsperdsha drew Morokova .. The surname explicitly explicitly says what kind of trouble she brought here ..
  9. Tyumen35
    Tyumen35 14 May 2011 11: 52
    +4
    The patriot is right, sooner or later China will start cutting us, they simply will have nowhere to go. Do not forget the words of Mao: * If necessary, China will set up an army of 300 million. * And they will need.
    1. The comment was deleted.
      1. XXXIII
        XXXIII 10 October 2017 00: 41
        +2
        food is not enough .... laughing
        1. XZS
          XZS 10 October 2017 00: 47
          0
          so they therefore eat chopsticks rice
  10. rumpeljschtizhe
    rumpeljschtizhe 14 May 2011 13: 05
    +9
    Most likely it will start from Kazakhstan.
    but they are afraid they don’t need to prepare
    1. The comment was deleted.
      1. XXXIII
        XXXIII 10 October 2017 00: 39
        +2
        Quote: xzs
        and Israel far we can not help you

        And if you pay, then help ?! laughing
        1. The comment was deleted.
        2. Kerosene Vitamin
          Kerosene Vitamin 15 October 2017 18: 47
          0
          already paid, already helping, but not to us bully
  11. His
    His 14 May 2011 14: 00
    +2
    China is a problem in terms of population, and India, which is overpopulated even more, does not mean that it will attack anyone. In our World of globalization, all countries can exist in connection with their cooperation, and free trade, the movement of products. It is not necessary to capture foreign lands in order to grow potatoes there. You can just buy it.
    1. XZS
      XZS 10 October 2017 00: 38
      0
      Indians buy weapons for billions from around the world they prepare for war with Pakistan
      1. XXXIII
        XXXIII 10 October 2017 00: 43
        +3
        Quote: xzs
        buy weapons for billions from around the world they prepare

        attack Israel one hundred pounds infa 147% wassat
        1. The comment was deleted.
      2. M Lat
        M Lat 31 January 2018 02: 56
        0
        well, the most important thing is not to let Israel smash Iran and the USA with the Saudis, then seriously not to take the Chinese threat posters from the countries already listed, well, and somehow live on;)
  12. East
    East 14 May 2011 14: 20
    +5
    patriot,
    Yes, I’m not at all sure of anyone’s peacefulness. The airing time does not mean anything, and I can live with the Internet at least in orbit. But it is, prose.
    Now to the point. Any neighbors like any territory. The Russian Federation is very fond of, for example, the Baltic States, Poland, Ukraine, the Crimea, especially, and of course the whole of Central Asia and "nostalgia" Alaska and California. It's one thing to want, another to be able. And here priorities arise, even for the United States, for example, to first sort out with whom - with the DPRK, Iran, Libya or Sudan with Syria? This takes not just years, but decades, and sometimes centuries.
    Now for the PRC. What is the first and main geopolitical priority of the Celestial Empire? That's right, Taiwan. How many years does it solve this problem? Probably guessed again - since 1949. And why can not decide? A bonus game - not only the USA does not give, but they themselves are unlikely to cope! What are the conclusions from this? China understands that Pindos are very unlikely to use nuclear weapons, but all vaunted own aircraft, even if they are 300 millionth aircraft, are not capable while resolve the issue with Taiwan. Even if the US does not intervene! And the United States, at best, will act as in the blockade of Cuba in 1963, without nuclear weapons. And the Russian Federation is clearly not Taiwan, and the next century will not be. Paraphrasing rumpeljschtizhe "they are afraid there is no need to prepare for war", everyone puts a comma in this phrase for himself.
    Intersection remark, why Hitler lane to Murmansk and Moscow. Why it is very important, but this is not a topic for the current discussion. Even more importantly, I didn’t care, despite all my equipment and training of troops, and the German army was already more prepared and modern at that time than the Chinese. This is in the European part, and in the Asian part the conditions are an order of magnitude worse, and the Chinese army in terms of its level of training is unlikely to reach the German one.
    Finally, the most important thing is whether the leadership of the PRC of our Siberia wants or does not want, neither technologically, nor politically, nor simply by its phase development, the PRC is on the same level as the Russian Federation. China may be relatively richer, but we while absolutely ahead. We just need to remember that everything in this world is changing, and nothing lasts forever, and the possible time for the beginning of the conflict with the PRC beyond the Trans-Urals will come very quickly by historical standards, over the next decades, if we stand still, and the first the signal will be when the Taiwan issue is resolved.
    1. Penguin
      Penguin 5 March 2018 23: 41
      0
      tries they will need Taiwan, if its coastal area is many times larger and richer in resources. In addition, there are almost no people - everything in Moscow is on the Sabbath
  13. aL13n
    aL13n 14 May 2011 14: 24
    0
    Test comment!
    1. aL13n
      aL13n 14 May 2011 14: 25
      0
      One-two-three-five.
  14. Georgy
    Georgy 14 May 2011 17: 10
    +2
    Author’s advice: to learn Chinese is alarmist and not everyone needs it.
    It is more useful to master the Russian language in perfection, and to know Russian culture. even in its small part and depth. Then the spirit grows stronger and the soul brightens.
    The threat of a Chinese invasion, unfortunately, should be taken seriously.
    Extraordinary steps are needed to reduce this probability of events. Namely:
    Create a committee (inter-agency) under the Security Council specifically for China and the Far East. with priority authority.
    This committee should comprehensively, in mutual coordination, evaluate all areas of interaction with China and the degree of threats emanating from it. Develop a plan for the development and defense of the Far East.
    In five years (which we most likely have), a lot can be done. It will take three to four months to draw up a plan. And then - to work.
    Money for this is quite uplifting, if thieves are not allowed in. Yes, and the goal is great: to equip and preserve our land beyond the Urals.
    It could have turned out beautifully. There's just nobody to do.
    The current government will not be able, because - because it does not know and does not understand. Yes, and will not.

    [quote = rumpeljschtizhe]

    Most likely it will start from Kazakhstan.
    but they are afraid they don’t need to prepare.

    Kazakhstan is not going anywhere from them.
  15. mitrich
    mitrich 14 May 2011 20: 05
    +2
    Ost
    competently and convincingly (according to your first comment, I thought that you think easier).
    I will try to answer in your own way (point by point):
    1.My personal defense doctrine is to identify the most likely opponents of the Russian Federation in the near future by exclusion (this, of course, is nothing more than gymnastics for the mind). So, I reject the armed conflict of the Russian Federation with the United States and NATO for the reasons that, despite ALL our disagreements (missile defense, human rights, Khodorkovsky, etc.), we have no reason to fight with them . We do not have common borders with the United States, there is practically no trade, Russia holds its capital in the United States, and not the United States in the Russian Federation. A war with Europe (NATO) is impossible due to the presence of dozens of nuclear power plants there, which excludes a nuclear strike for these states. And, most importantly, the war of the Russian Federation with the United States and NATO would be global (war on the complete destruction of belligerent states using nuclear weapons), and not local (rejection of part of the territory) in nature.
    2. I do not take into account the small but proud Georgia because of the seriousness of the topic under consideration.
    3. There remain two countries that can be classified as potentially dangerous for the Russian Federation states that have open (Japan) and hidden (China) territorial claims against Russia. By the way, any student knows about these territorial claims in the PRC itself, however, for the time being, they are not taken out of the country. Japan, the war with which due to the Kuril Islands I also consider it quite possible, I am outnumbered, because it's about China.
    4. Yes, as of May 14.05.2011, 1, the military enemy No. XNUMX for the PRC is Taiwan. However, Taiwan is part of a trilateral defensive alliance with the United States and Japan (in the United States, Congress even adopted a special law "On the Defense of Taiwan"). Start the PRC military operation to seize the island (which is even theoretically doomed to failure given the obvious weakness of the Chinese fleet in relation to the US Navy; after all, it will be necessary to land a huge number of military personnel), this will automatically entail a conflict with America and Japan, and personally with me there is no doubt that in case of undesirable development of events for Taiwan, the United States will use nuclear weapons. Finally, do not forget that both the PRC and Taiwan are inhabited by the same people, so in the end the Chinese and the Chinese will always come to an agreement (according to the soft, "Hong Kong" version; "one country - two systems"). By the way, China is already the main trading partner of Taiwan, despite all their armed confrontation.
    1. badens1111
      badens1111 8 October 2017 21: 52
      0
      Quote: mitrich
      My personal defense doctrine is to identify the most likely opponents of the Russian Federation in the near future by means of exclusion (this, of course, is nothing more than gymnastics for the mind). So, I reject the armed conflict of the Russian Federation with the United States and NATO for the reasons that, despite ALL our disagreements (missile defense, human rights, Khodorkovsky, etc.), we have no reason to fight with them . We do not have common borders with the United States, there is practically no trade, Russia holds its capital in the United States, and not the United States in the Russian Federation.

      Well, you betrayed yourself.
      The loudest about the threat to China for the Russian Federation, absolutely pro-American figures shout.
      The main adversary for RUSSIA is the USA. And no other way. In the US Doctrine, black and white is the enemy of Russia. So what are you thinking about China here?
      1. andrew42
        andrew42 19 October 2017 09: 01
        +1
        Badens111, it’s not worth it to launch the discussion nonsense unashamedly. Mitrich correctly placed everything, "rising above the forest." Modern China is the same for us as Germany of the 1939-1940 model. Even Chinese nationalism and imperial ambitions with a 3000-year exposure are also in analogy. As soon as the American Kaganate bends or interests the Chinese national elite in its “campaign to the North,” there will be a new “Barbarossa plan” in action. And of course, the root of the problem is Russia's weakness. Mobilization development of Far East in
        5-10 years under the current capitalist system is impossible. It is impossible at the age of 20, and at the age of 40. This requires a socialist state, albeit with elements of private business, with a limited "ceiling".
        1. badens1111
          badens1111 19 October 2017 10: 00
          0
          Quote: andrew42
          Modern China is the same for us as Germany of 1939-1940

          For you? Are you American?
          Do not tell me what to do and I won’t tell you where to go.
          Quote: andrew42
          . As soon as the American Kaganate bends or interests the Chinese national elite in its “campaign to the North,” there will be a new “Barbarossa plan” in action.

          This will not happen, fantasies in the style of American fears, leave for use by the Americans and their internal libels in Russia.
          So you didn’t rise above the “forest”, but you lost your way in the bushes and three pines, not seeing the real enemy, but following him his desired goal is to push the Russian Federation and China, and this force is called the United States.
      2. Darter88
        Darter88 29 November 2018 19: 00
        0
        You bought a Russian, corrupt new Vlasov Chinese, huh? The United States lives, for information, for such stupid Chinese Vlasovites like you, across the whole ocean. You Vate, clearly cheated, we have an infantry border with Huyvanbinomi, the size of which is much larger than the western front of united Western Europe, led by Guitar Germany in World War II !!! You determined your comments, Chinese cocksucker !!!
  16. mitrich
    mitrich 14 May 2011 20: 29
    +2
    Ost
    5. Do you know that the policy of territorial expansion of borders was taken as a basis by Mao Zedong, who voiced a whole list of so-called. "lost territories", which included, in addition to the countries of Southeast Asia, Transbaikalia and the south of the Russian Far East up to the Okhotsk - Yakutsk line. And they, the Chinese, are preserving the legacy of their former leaders, they did not carry Mao's mummy from the Mausoleum and sacredly honor his behests, although they seem to be building capitalism.
    6. As for Southeast Asia and the DPRK, Mao's program has already been completed. These states are already vassals of the PRC, thanks to the absorption of the economies of these states by the economy of the PRC and the assimilation of the local population from the so-called. "huaqiao" (immigrants from China), already the military aggression of China will be accompanied by the military aggression of its satellites (as during the Second World War).
    7. The military equipment of the Chinese army is "clones" and shit, by and large and small, but they have a lot of it, like people.
    Think about it, Ost, and everyone who reads what will happen if the goal of the PRC invasion is not declared the overthrow of the government and the capture of Moscow, but the accession of a number of Far Eastern regions. Will the leadership of the Russian Federation decide in such conditions on the use of nuclear weapons? I think not, and that means that the war will be fought by conventional means, which for us is tantamount to defeat, at least in the short term.
    8. I think the PRC will launch the "touchstone" not in the Far East, but in Central Asia. They will watch the reaction, so to speak. But further ...
    I wish I were wrong.
  17. cabin boy
    cabin boy 14 May 2011 21: 04
    +1
    patriot, I wrote my comment in the hope that the author of the article, Arina Morokova, is sometimes interested in the opinion of readers, since she put her name under sheer stupidity. For you, I explain separately, Khramchikhin not just "professorially" does not understand the performance characteristics of various types of our or "not our" weapons, he does not understand what he is trying to reason about, moreover, he tries to argue with the logic of military affairs.
    “Yes, so far we have superiority in strategic nuclear forces, but they are rapidly decreasing. At the same time, we do not have medium-range ballistic missiles, while China does, which almost neutralizes their lag in intercontinental ballistic missiles (which is also decreasing). " - should Russia have exactly the same for every medium-range ballistic missile in China?
    "The ratio of tactical nuclear weapons is unknown, but we need to understand that we will have to use them on our own territory." - what for? Probably we will shoot at clothing markets, where the Chinese, out of habit, will cluster around 300 mil. army. Nuclear weapons are the most humane weapons; it is more humane to use them in densely populated cities. Where are the most populous cities?
    "With regard to the exchange of strikes of strategic nuclear forces, the Chinese potential is more than enough to destroy the main cities of European Russia, which they do not need (there are many people and few resources). There are very strong suspicions that, realizing this, the Kremlin will use nuclear weapons won't work. " - specifically under the Chinese threat, amendments were made to the "Security Doctrine of the Russian Federation" on the legitimacy of the first use of nuclear weapons. The leadership of the Russian Federation adequately considers the possibility of a Chinese threat and also responds adequately to it. According to Khramchikhin's logic, a total mobilization should be announced tomorrow, all 140 mil. the Russian army will stand on the Chinese border and wait for China to attack.
    I have already written, and I repeat again, it will be necessary to wait for the Chinese attack when the world financial oligarchy crushes the Communist Party of China, while this is not observed, the Tiananmen Square is proof of this.
  18. His
    His 14 May 2011 22: 20
    0
    China and I are temporary allies (interest club). Now we have a common enemy - the United States. When this enemy leaves, we will remain face to face. But when will it be?
    1. andrew42
      andrew42 19 October 2017 10: 04
      0
      Generally true. Only in vain do we write the States for the Chinese as enemies. States for China is a source of stolen technology, specialist education, and financial injections. I remind you that in Chinese, the States are "Mei Guo," in other words, "The Beautiful Empire." She burns and beckons. Beckons, as an example to follow, the Chinese elite with its level of financial power and de facto unlimited power. On the other hand, the Chinese elite, taught by the experience of the 19-20 centuries, is afraid to death of losing sovereignty, realizing that for the world liquidocracy they will always be of the 2nd, and even 3rd grade. So, it’s the States that call the Chinese “the enemy”, and China is not in a hurry to record the States as enemies. States are needed by China than China by the States, although the CPC’s nationalistically charged bonzes are a little scary, but .. without the States, nothing ..
  19. cabin boy
    cabin boy 14 May 2011 23: 35
    +1
    patriot Today, 20:05 AM
    "We have no reason to fight with them. We have no common borders with the United States, there is practically no trade, the Russian Federation keeps its capital in the United States, and not the United States in the Russian Federation."
    Tell me the place where the border between the United States and: -Vietnam, -Yugoslavia, -Iraq, -Afghanistan. Well, about trade and capital.

    "in case of undesirable development of events for Taiwan, the US WILL APPLY nuclear weapons"
    "If the goal of the invasion of the PRC is not the overthrow of the government and the capture of Moscow, but the annexation of a number of Far Eastern regions. Will the leadership of the Russian Federation in such conditions decide to use nuclear weapons? I think not."
    That is, that when attacking a foreign territory of the United States, nuclear weapons will be used, and if the Russian leadership is divided up, the Russian leadership will put it in your pants, do you have any doubts? I thought for myself patriot what country you are.
  20. East
    East 15 May 2011 00: 20
    +4
    patriot,
    I understand you perfectly according to your concerns regarding the use of nuclear weapons by our country. There is such a thing as post-traumatic syndrome, phantom pain. I had this syndrome in relation to our Motherland to Georgian conflict. Before this conflict, it seemed to me that the whole end, my country is only able to lose territory and make beautiful, but helpless throws company Airborne to the Pristina airfield. I saw that the Allies turned away from us, because we betrayed them in the late 80s. I saw K. Rice's contempt for us in everything, and frank mockery of Britain, remember to rewrite your fucking Constitution, in the case of Lugovoi. It seemed to this nightmare there would be no end, no edge. At night, I dreamed that my country would finally concentrate and would rightfully take its due, Great place in this world. I remember the fierce discussions about Abkhazia on the Internet, when almost no one could even think that we open we will intervene, and even more so we will fight with Georgia. Then everyone, everyone yelled, even if we suddenly get involved, then they will choke us off, Europe will attack us like Yugoslavia, the States will be bombarded with "tomahawks", and we will chicken out and will not use our nuclear weapons. I even remember how at one time they were seriously discussing that our nuclear weapons should be put under international control. But suddenly this conflict of 2008 happened, and the one whom everyone loves to call "gnome" justified his name and became a real Russian Bear. And no one intervened, because the Great Nuclear Power is at war, ready to unleash all its Thermonuclear Rage on anyone who prevents it from doing its business, in particular, to protect its peacekeepers and its citizens, even if they live in another territory. And the pain went away at that moment, the syndrome passed.
    I firmly believe that thought is material, and first there was a word. If we are truly Patriots of our Fatherland, then we should doubt for a second that we will use nuclear weapons against any aggressor, be it China, Japan or the United States, and only then will they understand and be convinced that the "YES" of the Russian Federation will not use nuclear weapons pondering and in any case.
    And then many, simply logistic, climatic, demographic and other problems of Siberia and the Far East will remain purely Russian, while Russian.
    PS And as for Southeast Asia, there is such a country Vietnam. This country hates China, rules in Cambodia and Laos, and if you look at the map it is the main obstacle for the Middle Kingdom on the way of its expansion to the south. And most importantly, this country remembers who helped her in the difficult for her 60-70-80 of the last century, and thank God, our then leaders could not denigrate our relationship with betrayal. This is perhaps the most interesting plot in our geopolitical reality regarding Russia, Asia and the Pacific. In all these ups and downs, I simply humbly keep silent about the impact of geoeconomics.
  21. mitrich
    mitrich 15 May 2011 01: 47
    -1
    Cabin boy,
    one should not throw accusations of lack of patriotism just because someone does not take a "shabby" position in relation to the problem outlined by the author. I do hope that it was not a child who expressed my opinion on this forum.
    We are not considering an act of aggression that has happened, but only a threat to the security of our state. Therefore, everything we write about is VERSION. Even A. Khramchikhin, who you do not like, leaves from 1 to 5% that the worst will not happen. And I hope so, and God forbid that all this turns out to be empty "horror stories".
    You too love to cling to words, so I answer:
    -the states that you named as objects of US aggression are incorrect to compare with the Russian Federation due to the difference in military capabilities of America itself and the designated countries. Iraq, Yugoslavia, etc. Originally, the United States could not give an adequate rebuff, Vietnam, by the way, did not lose its war, but also failed to transfer hostilities to the territory of the aggressor or cause any damage to continental America;
    -the use of nuclear weapons in the United States and the Russian Federation has a different orientation. The Americans, by virtue of their defense strategy, are ready to use nuclear weapons to protect allied countries, for this they have made arrangements with their vassals in Asia, and therefore they are deploying elements of their missile defense system in Europe so that a retaliatory strike does NOT take place in the USA. Defense on distant approaches, so to speak. As for the nuclear response of the Russian Federation to the possible aggression of the PRC, it seems to me that the leadership of the modern Russian Federation would rather agree to give part, rather than lose the whole.
    I repeat, Jung, that this is only a VERSION. An indisputable fact is only China, which is becoming more powerful every year. You will not argue with this?
    1. badens1111
      badens1111 8 October 2017 21: 54
      0
      Quote: mitrich
      The Americans, by virtue of their defense strategy, are ready to use nuclear weapons to protect allied countries, for this they have made arrangements with their vassals in Asia, and therefore they are deploying elements of their missile defense system in Europe so that a retaliatory strike does NOT take place in the United States.

      Oh .. how does it mean in Europe, the missile defense area against the DPRK and PRC missiles, as well as Iran? What a zagogulin ... what else can you think of the peacefulness of the United States?
  22. mitrich
    mitrich 15 May 2011 07: 10
    -1
    Ost
    You should not fall into excessive optimism or depression.
    It so happened historically that in order to bring itself into proper combat form, Russia needs to receive either a resounding slap in the face (as in the case of the shooting of our peacekeepers in Tskhinval), or a deep knockdown (as in the summer of 1941). Then everything returns to normal: the enemy runs, smearing snot on the once aggressive erysipelas. That's that. Such a plan! There were times for us and much worse than 1990-2000. Nothing, then everything came back to normal, and now it will come. I do not know what was happening on the Internet in August 2008, but we should not consider that micro-war the starting point of our new great victories. Fighting with chmyra and cowards is not some great achievement (I am even surprised that the Internet community has gone too far).
    Speaking of nuclear weapons, by the abbreviation of the Russian Federation I mean one or two people who make decisions on its application (there will be no referendum).
    Finally about Vietnam. This is not the country that survived the Pindos war and smashed the Chinese in the 79th year. After the collapse of the USSR, Vietnam found another owner. What - guess for yourself (this is easy).
    Russia will ultimately defeat any enemy (speaking yesterday about our inevitable defeat in a normal war with a neighbor, I got a little excited), even China. The only question is the price of this victory (I do not mean money), because we have not departed from the consequences of the Second World War.
  23. Escander
    Escander 15 May 2011 09: 22
    0
    It is necessary to have an adequate tactical component so as not to cry tearfully to the Japanese and Chinese sides and not to nod at nuclear weapons. Modern forces and means in normal quantities with normal control. (a fairy tale, probably, as of today)
  24. Andrei
    Andrei 15 May 2011 11: 22
    0
    I would not say that the Chinese technique is "shit". "Shit" is a technique made in the basement on the knee. Had the opportunity to inspect and research Chinese cars for OUR market - the description does not need comments. "Factory" China is another matter. I drove a business class FAVe, really like a Mercedes, but connoisseurs of the brand will forgive me. And so in everything.
    But in fact - there will be no war. Far East already daaavnooooo colonized. China does not make sense to attack - it already has almost full access to the region’s resources.
    1. oleole2018
      oleole2018 April 7 2018 18: 18
      0
      Why are you lying, uncle, with a smart look? Far East - colonized by China? What hangover do you throw such statements from? Yes, in New York City Shanghai City, more Chinese live than in the whole territory of the Russian Federation. WHAT ACCESS TO THE RESOURCES OF THE REGION? Divorced you - alarmists like fleas. It's time to stock up on dichlorvos.
  25. Mackle
    Mackle 15 May 2011 16: 31
    +1
    Quote: Ost
    PS And about SEA, there is such a country
    to Vietnam. This country hates China, rules in Kazhbodzha and Laos, and if you look at the map is the main barrier to the Middle Kingdom on the way of its expansion to the South. And most importantly, this country remembers who helped her in the difficult for her 60-70-80 of the last century, and thank God, our then leaders could not denigrate our relationship with betrayal. This is perhaps the most interesting plot in our geopolitical reality regarding Russia, Asia and the Pacific. In all these ups and downs, I simply humbly keep silent about the impact of geoeconomics.

    I fully agree, I also want to add that uncontrolled China with Siberian resources is a terrible dream for the United States of Japan and South Korea, and despite all their economic interconnectedness, they will be in the forefront in opposing such actions of the CCP.
    Mutual "love" between Koreans, Chinese and Japanese is such a snake ball that until it unravels in the region, no one will twitch too much.
    And there is also India which well remembers its lost territories in the Indochinese conflict and develops its nuclear (and the rest) component not against half-dead Pakistan, namely against the huenwebins.
    So, in spite of all his Wishlist, China will twitch in our direction, in the last turn, in the end, from the strongest games in the region, we are the friendliest to them, and it’s not that easy to rush like that.
    P.S. For those who believe that the Far East is crowded with Chinese migrants in the amount of millions of souls, I recommend that you still fly to Vladivostok Ussuriysk and Khabarovsk and count for yourself.
    AND THE MOST IMPORTANT NOT TO BE MIXED WITH THE CHINESE OF TUVINIANS AND BURYATS, otherwise you can grab such sows wink

  26. Sergei
    Sergei 15 May 2011 20: 00
    0
    Do not be afraid of the quantities of Chinese military equipment. The USSR had 41 times more aircraft and tanks than Germany. By the end of the 41st, what was left of this equipment? The training and spirit of the soldiers were much more important.
  27. APASUS
    APASUS 15 May 2011 20: 12
    0
    China will not fight with Russia, because the consequences may not be predictable! They just buy the country from our corrupt officials, for glass beads!
  28. East
    East 15 May 2011 20: 28
    0
    APASUS,
    It’s interesting, but why should China not buy our country from our super-sales officials right now, well, maybe tomorrow 16.05.11 or August 2011? And why didn’t these officials sell us with giblets a year, two or 10 years ago?
    1. Corsair
      Corsair 11 October 2017 10: 42
      0
      And where did you get that you didn’t buy? buy quietly. The Chinese are already buying / building CHP plants in Russia, understand?
      They have already plunged into our strategic sectors, and heat and power supply, I think this is a strategic industry for a country in which winter is 7-8 months in places. Lands are bought up under greenhouses and killed for 3-5 years, then nothing will grow on it for decades. In small steps and so on step by step.
    2. andrew42
      andrew42 19 October 2017 10: 23
      0
      Little to offer. The Chinese are greedy.
  29. spirit
    spirit 15 May 2011 20: 51
    0
    Will Moscow use nuclear weapons ?, will not apply? !!! After all, there is another weapon of mass destruction. For example, bacteriological, in my opinion it will be worse. who applied? When did you apply? The Chinese with pneumonia have clearly made it clear that their 300 million mobilization can suddenly pick up some kind of super-tripper !!! So it is in the Far East, in which case something bad may erupt. And we say that the ancient virus woke up, the Russian land itself resists the invaders)))
  30. APASUS
    APASUS 15 May 2011 20: 55
    +2
    East
    The Chinese are very persistent and purposeful people, but they have a very specific approach to any problem. They do not throw shots at the embrasure, do not give speeches, they stupidly go to their goal. Why will they anger the beast, by village in the village, per square meter and quietly, without intrigue, they will simply move to their land. And the fact that our bureaucrats will help them is not even a drop of doubt !!!! Look how they demarcated the border !!!
  31. Sirius
    Sirius 15 May 2011 21: 41
    0
    I read all sorts of comments here. It became scary, already terrible! smile
    "Will attack - will not attack" the time will come - we will find out.
    But I have such a question: “China has existed for more than five thousand years, it will be older than Russia, but I don’t remember the great victories of Chinese weapons! Millions of China was conquered by small Huns, Mongols, Manchus. In the 19th century, China lost.” Opium war ", for which it is still paying the price. The Japanese samurai could not be defeated on their own.
    If the British have the Battle of Trafalgar, the French have Austerlitz, the Russians have Kulikovo Field, Borodino, Stalingrad. Did the Chinese have their own Borodino? Your Stalingrad? Tell me, connoisseurs of history, what kind of war did China win in its five thousand year history? fellow
    The Chinese are not a military people. If they happen to start it, then they will choke in their blood.
    If you want peace, get ready for war. Nobody will cancel this truth. In my opinion, Russia is in danger from a possible new Islamic caliphate. That's who the Anglo-Saxons can set against us. They want to accomplish what the Germans set on the USSR did not do in the 40s.
    1. contour
      contour 25 February 2018 20: 04
      0
      ... China has existed for more than five thousand years, older than Russia will ...
      Better not write it again. Read the opportunity from where the reckoning from SMZH came.
  32. East
    East 15 May 2011 22: 42
    +1
    APASUS,
    A quite possible scenario, I agree. Let's just say, like any country, the PRC will cling to any reason to tear off a little land from us. The only trouble for them is that a significant part of the border with the Russian Federation is delimited by rivers, and there may be complaints against us if the flow of these rivers changes, which they regularly try to do themselves. But we have one character who, to such attempts, though to another state, replied - "Not earth to you, but ears from a dead donkey."
  33. mitrich
    mitrich 16 May 2011 02: 29
    +1
    You don’t have to go to any Far East and walk the streets there, counting: "2153, 2154, 2155 ... (Buryats? Step aside), 2156. Ugh, you got lost, damn it."
    In order to see a living Chinese, you can live in any part of Russia. For example, I live in the Urals (in Yekaterinburg). I went to Russia-China volleyball last year. When I entered the palace, I thought: "Where am I, in Mukden?" If there was no ticket in my pocket, I would have turned around and left. And in Moscow? I cannot find a living Muscovite so that I can ask for directions. Towards an Azeri, then a Chinese, it is generally not clear what comes across. So our little eastern friends are everywhere (except that the village of Malye Perepizdishchi can sleep well for now).
    And are you colleagues too loyal to Vietnam? Have you decided that if they sold you beads in Ho Chi Minh City with a smile, they still adore us? This is no longer the case. Remember the story of the Cam Ranh base? How many screams were there in the media? "Russia has betrayed an ally ... Russia is losing its geopolitical position in Southeast Asia." And about the fact that the ally paid such a price for the lease of this base that it was easier to build a base on the Moon - they were silent (by the way, the Chinese "hated" by Vietnam are being repaired there).
    That's it, brothers. They love the strong. We will become strong again, and they will begin to love us again, even Bandera with the Old Jew. In the meantime, Russia has two allies: its army and its fleet.
  34. I'm sitting
    I'm sitting 16 May 2011 03: 42
    0
    The author applied knowledge of arithmetic in analyzing the likely attack by the PRC on the Russian Federation. But this does not mean that the author is an expert. It’s not enough to calculate the number of weapons, one must also assume the tactics of its use. The assumption that the Russian authorities will not use nuclear weapons is absurd, of course, if we exclude the direct betrayal of their own country. It is unlikely that the Chinese will begin military operations if they are sure that a continuous strip of radioactive rubble up to 100 km wide will be arranged on their territory. There is such an opportunity, as well as the probability of withdrawing from the agreement on the elimination of medium-range missiles.
  35. Stavr
    Stavr 16 May 2011 07: 47
    +1
    Nuclear weapons will be used, but so far in local conflicts. Will these conflicts grow into a third world? - depends on many factors, including from the decision of the elite of many countries and their leaders. So far, there are no crazy leaders of countries waving a nuclear club. The world of using nuclear weapons is very afraid, but they will nevertheless use it. The first explosion will be ground with a huge funnel. Where? Most likely, Israel will deal a blow to Iran with the full support of the United States. It’s not long to wait. Indeed, China is more likely to attack Russia, but in the beginning - a test ball - Kazakhstan! It will only happen in the distant future. And by that time, geopolitical processes due to nuclear war in the Middle East will change. America needs a large-scale war, as it does not seem strange, in order to survive its rotting economy, which will be thrown into the fire of a military fire, but will lead to the opposite, to actions that no one can predict now. And it’s better not to talk about them: anyway, no one will believe now. Just everyone would like to recall that the future is forming today. And everyone perfectly understands and realizes that so far - not in Russia's favor, unfortunately.
  36. cabin boy
    cabin boy 16 May 2011 20: 28
    0
    patriot
    "As for the nuclear response of the Russian Federation to the possible aggression of the PRC, it seems to me that the leadership of the modern Russian Federation would rather agree to give up a part than to lose the whole." - You yourself contradict logic, like Khramchikhin, to give China a part = to lose everything. After the surrender of the part, Russia will be disassembled into principalities, and the leaders of the country who went to this will be executed like Hussein, for example, for Manezhnaya Square or Khodorkovsky, the reason will no longer matter. The demarcation of the border on the rivers was carried out in accordance with INTERNATIONAL law, in the middle of the MARINE fairway.
    "The indisputable fact is only China, which every year is becoming more powerful. With this - then you will not argue?" - but this does not mean that for each of their tanks, we should have 1,5 of ours at the border. The stake was placed on nuclear weapons, the position of our leadership was clearly communicated to the leadership of China, we understood each other and signed agreements and only a third force can violate these agreements.
  37. mitrich
    mitrich 16 May 2011 20: 42
    -1
    Cabin boy,
    I can answer you only one thing:
    Barba crescit, caput nescit.
  38. East
    East 16 May 2011 23: 15
    +1
    Quote: patriot
    And are you colleagues too loyal to Vietnam? Have you decided that if they sold you beads in Ho Chi Minh City with a smile, they still adore us? This is no longer the case. Remember the story of the Cam Ranh base? How many screams were there in the media? "Russia has betrayed an ally ... Russia is losing its geopolitical position in Southeast Asia." And about the fact that the ally paid such a price for the lease of this base that it was easier to build a base on the Moon - they were silent (by the way, the Chinese "hated" by Vietnam are being repaired there).

    What price have you requested? $ 300 million was a figure. The United States offered 500 million, but did not receive. And for Sevastopol, how much will we really pay now? And then, we were given this base in 1979 for 25 years for what they gave it for free? For help in repelling whose aggression? And who argues for the islands in the South China Sea? China would gladly throw a noose in Kamrani on Vietnam, but Vietnam is not a suicide! And about fixing the Chinese warships in Kamran - not seriously, by golly.
    I'm not talking about the ordinary economy, what fleet do we have on this base, the current Pacific Fleet? In 10-20 years it may be, but what kind of money is that, multiply 300 * 10. And then they say Russian officials sold out!
    About the beads. With these beads, several thousand "Phantoms" were shot down, and Freedom was defended, and this is worth a lot and is always remembered. By the way, I have not heard that Vietnam asked to write off our debts, unlike, for example, very rich Libya.
  39. Escander
    Escander 18 May 2011 09: 48
    0
    cabin boy

    --- ““ But this does not mean that for each of their tanks, we must have 1,5 of ours at the border. The stake was made on nuclear weapons, the position of our leadership was clearly communicated to the leadership of China, we understood each other and signed agreements, and only a third force can violate these agreements. ”

    Where such confidence? You climbed into their Chinese head with high technology from Skolkovo?
    Agreements with Germany, almost an ally ("non-aggression pact") were. So what?
    And for each of their tanks you need to have at least 0,5 of ours.
    But nuclear weapons are not a panacea, they also have it.
    Adequacy is needed here, not asymmetry.
  40. Dmitriy
    Dmitriy 18 May 2011 23: 43
    0
    Arina Morokova urgently learn the geography of China. See where the main industrial and administrative centers are concentrated. This will give an understanding of how the conventional, strategic, but non-nuclear weapons can greatly reduce the number of the Chinese people without any particular problems, since Russia has, unlike China, the means of delivering such weapons to any target in China. Constantly mention that everyone has nuclear weapons and it is not a deterrent - stupidity. Is an. If the question arises of the life and death of the state, nuclear weapons will be used throughout China.
    1. Escander
      Escander 19 May 2011 17: 46
      +1
      Like nuclear weapons of China will be used on the territory of the Russian Federation.
      If the Russian Federation does not burden itself with deterrence, then why should China suddenly, from your point of view, wait for something with caution?
      And there will be an answer from them, do not hesitate.
      NF is the last argument of deterrence. But this is Dumb containment.
      This is STUPIDITY.
      1. Dmitriy
        Dmitriy 20 May 2011 00: 24
        +2
        Comrade, I wrote - "a matter of life and death." When there is a question of destroying a state, who cares what the difference is, what happens after the use of nuclear weapons? If the question before me is to be destroyed, what difference does it make to me than to be destroyed, conventional or nuclear weapons? At your leisure, read about the Perimeter system.
  41. Aleks23
    Aleks23 14 December 2011 15: 47
    0
    if China attacks us, then it will need a territory with resources from our country => they will use nuclear weapons as a last resort, and we can send them a couple of missiles and that's it :)
  42. Lightpower
    Lightpower 10 September 2014 03: 39
    0
    How much I love to read in almost every topic about Americans, that they need a big war to boost their economy, because they already got it during World War II, etc. etc. laughing And everyone directly considers it their duty to repeat this ... You try a little to distinguish the second world from the third nuclear. Who will already need their raised economy, if they even have a chance to turn into dust? Ash does not need money. It is profitable to supply weapons and other goods in large-scale local conflicts, and turning the world into dust is not profitable.
    As for China, someday they will definitely fight with someone, not just because they are arming the army on such a scale. Their problem is only that their territory is extremely small, for them a nuclear strike will mean the end, unlike the Russian Federation. And it makes no sense to fight tanks and infantry with anyone, neither the Russian Federation nor the United States. The wisest decision will be to refuse to supply them with the most advanced means of aerospace defense, so that their chances of surviving are zero.
    1. sania5791
      sania5791 8 October 2017 00: 11
      0
      And you read about stone hedge in England,
      It says about half a billion people on earth.
  43. sania5791
    sania5791 8 October 2017 00: 09
    +1
    But who needs this war, they already buy our officials, buy our stolen forest for cheap, fish, not even coming to the Russian Federation, but the truth is that the best gene pool was squandered in the civil and Great Patriotic War, not many people are ready to defend the place where they live from arbitrariness of officials.
  44. mobidik69
    mobidik69 8 October 2017 05: 07
    0
    eeee Alina Morokova)))) fools however))) probably the dill got a bit hungry))) grabbed the facts wow but the feminine logic’s campaign is too strong for strategic thinking ... I think there are 2 simple facts that will destroy the unsteady logic of this article. 1 - without us, China is an easy and coveted target for America ... 2 - Russia's strategic nuclear forces are geared towards defeating large objects like American cities (and what is the difference between an American city and a Chinese city ???))) and here there will be no loss of several hundreds of thousands of young men, and the loss of most of the population of urbanized China ... you dill, at least grab a garlic, it stinks))) and don’t think others are more stupid than yourself))))
  45. NUR
    NUR 8 October 2017 10: 31
    +3
    What a stupid article? Most of all, one must be afraid of internal betrayal, as with the hunchback, no one could defeat the union, the traitor could.
  46. Малый
    Малый 8 October 2017 12: 55
    +1
    The last war with China was 7520 years ago, then they built a wall for three thousand years ... under the terms of the vanquished
  47. demo
    demo 8 October 2017 19: 57
    +1
    You can read everything for a long time, but you can immediately see the map.
    And no comparisons are needed: neither in technology nor in training. not with anything.
    So. We look at the map of population density in China,

    In sparsely populated territories, another China can be located.
    There is also Mongolia.
    But with the Russian Federation a problem may come out.
    The presence of nuclear weapons is the main limiting factor.
  48. Yugra
    Yugra 8 October 2017 21: 43
    0
    Some kind of defeatist cry. This expert is not paid by the State Department?
  49. myobius59
    myobius59 9 October 2017 00: 11
    0
    Damn, I read the article, and something familiar slipped through. Then he began to read comments. And again the same feeling that already somewhere I read it.
    And then I SEE the date under the comments, when the year 2011 has almost reached the end !!!. Is that again throwing another one, are we checking our reaction to the surrender of Siberia to our Far Eastern "partners"?
    I wouldn’t write anything at all, but only .... I rested, or rather was treated, in the 90th year of the last century (to go crazy, after all, of the past millennium) in one of the sanatoriums of Nalchik. And then, like drinking a glass of tea, with the same illness, after “about women,” and some other topics, we switched to politics. THE UNION HAS NOT BEEN DECLINED. !!! And so my drinking companion for tea began to claim that Ukraine would separate from Russia, that we would have a war with it. The conversation was EXACTLY only about Ukraine. 90th, it was, albeit already a rather vague time, BUT WHAT WOULD BE ABOUT UKRAINE !!!! I laughed at him. And in vain, as subsequent events showed.
    So, it’s like a simple person (whether he’s alive, I only remember the name Vladimir), like me, but it is so PREDICTED for something that could not be dreamed of in a terrible dream - INCREDIBLE.
    This is a saying. And the tale is that there are many prophecies about how China will attack us. Including relatively recent. And I don’t seem to know a single one that America will attack us. . And the most incredible thing is that some of these prophecies were made by ordinary people, and not by all sorts of "Nostradamus", "Wangs", or what other "Experts". Including one deceased granny (the kingdom to her) also personally to me, about 20 years ago, when she was still alive.
    So I probably still agree with the author of the article, and ironically grin at the words of those commentators who do not allow the development of such events. Everything can be. It’s a very real scenario. And we ourselves accelerated it by giving them the latest weapons technology, actually arming our enemy. Of course, they would probably have made all of these modern airplanes, tanks, missiles, etc. without us, if only it would have been significantly extended in time. We have accelerated this process. And most likely, we will pay for it. And apparently, very soon, no matter how some skeptics would make fun of it.
    Everything in this life can be
    Everything in this life can become.
    The bride may not surrender.
    The wife can change you.
    BUT that we would have thrown drink
    This one, CAN’T BE.
  50. myobius59
    myobius59 9 October 2017 00: 21
    0
    Quote: demo
    You can read everything for a long time, but you can immediately see the map.
    And no comparisons are needed: neither in technology nor in training. not with anything.
    So. We look at the map of population density in China,

    In sparsely populated territories, another China can be located.
    There is also Mongolia.
    But with the Russian Federation a problem may come out.
    The presence of nuclear weapons is the main limiting factor.

    The map is certainly good, but does not reflect one moment. Most of the territories that are poorly populated are actually not suitable for living. Bad conditions there. But Primorye and southern Siberia are very tempting. And in the north, they, like us, will work on duty.