Military Review

Crimean gambit. Intermediate course

39
Crimean gambit. Intermediate course



Events in Ukraine can not leave us indifferent. The death of people, our sisters and brothers causes in our hearts a desire to stop the bloodshed, to put an end to fascism. Therefore, it is quite natural to make calls as soon as possible to bring our troops into Ukraine for peacekeeping purposes. However, in politics, as in war, the one who abstracts from emotions and acts only on the basis of reason wins. Therefore, do not ignore the opinion of experts.

President of the National Strategy Institute Mikhail Remizov does not exclude that the consultations held by the FBI and the CIA with the new Kiev authorities may indicate the US plans to involve Russia in a local war with Ukraine, in order to then fight Moscow with Kiev. “They (the United States), of course, are playing on the side of Kiev, their task is to hold presidential elections, to ensure control of the new government in the country. This, so to speak, is the tip of the iceberg. At the same time, implicitly, games for drawing Russia into a military confrontation cannot be ruled out - this would also be an acceptable option for Americans, "believes Remizov. The expert stressed that the main question is not whether the American specialists work on Kiev’s side, but what tasks they set for themselves.It is impossible to say for sure whether the Americans pursue only the goals they declare or are playing a more complicated game that takes place “in the framework of unleashing a war, that is, drawing Russia into a local conflict, which then Americans will already lead by the hands of Ukrainians, supplying them weapons, instructors, equipment, finances, ”said the political scientist. (MOSCOW, May 4, RIA "News").

But a look at the events from across the ocean; According to independent American journalist Mike Whitney, the US administration deliberately creates in Ukraine "a fascist state that puts pressure on Russia through endless provocations and war." According to the journalist, the statement of the International Monetary Fund about the need for additional funding for Ukraine in case of loss of territories in the east of the country is a sign of the “pressure” of the fund on the authorities of Ukraine. “The IMF simply acted on orders from the White House. This is Obama's war. Obama intends to involve Russia in a bloody guerrilla war that will lead Ukraine in the same conditions as Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, and now Syria. " Whitney is confident that Obama is continuing the work of the previous US President George W. Bush, doing the same thing with the Ukrainians and Russians that Bush did with the Shiites and Sunnis in Iraq. This is Obama's plan: to create a failed fascist state, which follows directives from Washington and puts pressure on Russia through endless provocations and war ”(http://jvatnews.ru).

I believe that, in provoking Ukrainian events, the initiators pursued their interests not only in relation to Ukraine, but also viewed them as an opportunity to be drawn into the conflict of Russia. Moreover, in my opinion, the main goal is Russia. And Russia will be tried to be drawn in such a way that the actions we have taken coincide with the scenario already written by Western analysts. I would not be surprised if somewhere there are already allegedly real clips taken at film studios about the introduction of Russian troops into Ukraine, and a full-scale study of the Ukrainian theater of operations and the development of operational plans was carried out in NATO military units.

All actions of the junta are pushing Russia to send troops to Ukraine. But, since we are being pushed towards this, it means that it is beneficial for someone. In my opinion and the opinion of more literate political scientists, the United States wishes. What they started there, I do not know. Armed collision as an end in itself? It is unlikely, although it is possible, as the last attempt of the ruling party to save its rating. (Especially for this, the Budapest Memorandum can be drawn in, justifying the use of military force by the US, bypassing UN sanctions.) Forcing us out of the European gas market? Small, but not excluded, since they have one measure - profit. Did the United States follow in its stories any moral principles in the struggle for profit?

Options really can be many. Up to the desire of the United States to split the political alliance with China and neutralize the existing bloc. After all, he tied his hands not only in the Syrian issue and may interfere in future plans. In any case, regardless of the goals of the United States, our actions should not be consistent with their desires and plans. There must be a smart move from Russia that breaks all the enemy’s “homework”. For example, if you enter troops to protect the Russian-speaking population, to end the civil war, then not the troops of Russia, but the troops of the SCO. In this case, the script written by the CIA in the event of the entry of Russian troops is no longer valid. We intercept the initiative, and do not go a step behind. This is just me as an example. It’s not up to me to decide what actions Russia will take, but I hope our analysts are at least as good as Westerners and, like chess players, are able to figure out moves ahead on 5.
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  1. Wels75
    Wels75 12 May 2014 09: 24
    +10
    It is cleverly said: “There should be a clever move from Russia that breaks all the enemy’s“ homework ”. For example, if you send troops to protect the Russian-speaking population and end the civil war, then not the Russian troops, but the SCO troops. In this case, the scenario written The CIA no longer acts in case of the entry of Russian troops. We intercept the initiative, and do not go one step behind. This is just me as an example. It is not for me to decide what actions Russia will take, but I hope our analysts are at least as good as Western ones and like chess players. able to calculate 5 moves ahead. "
    do not decrease do not add!
    1. user
      user 12 May 2014 10: 13
      +4
      There really can be many options.

      As they say, "whatever they talk about is still talking about money." If NATO opens permanent bases in Europe, the United States will make good money, if Europe reduces dependence on Gazprom, there will be supplies of shale gas at good prices for the Americans, if power in Kiev is held, then the pipe will be under American control, and therefore Europe will also, again, help to the junta due to funding from the IMF - you can still list a lot, but still we will talk about money, so do not look for any logic in the actions of the United States, the hotter in Ukraine, the more money.
    2. blizart
      blizart 12 May 2014 10: 15
      +4
      An unexpected move, the accession of Donbass ... to Northern Kazakhstan. Joke
    3. Ross
      Ross 12 May 2014 10: 22
      +1
      Analysis by Israeli analyst Jacob Kedmi from 3 on May, what opportunities Russia has regarding the situation in Ukraine.
      1. vlad63
        vlad63 12 May 2014 13: 05
        0
        In April, there were at least 3 statements by Kedmi about the inevitability of the introduction of troops. He listened to Mark and Yasha and remembered the priest Gapon.
        1. Thompson
          Thompson 12 May 2014 23: 32
          0
          Did he name the date? Or is it all over? Alas, neither one nor the other.
          Well, if he was wrong, but I do not see the prerequisites
  2. Giant thought
    Giant thought 12 May 2014 09: 26
    +11
    Of course, in unexpected moves, Russia will break all the plans of the United States. What methods will achieve victory is not so important, it is important that it be. We wish the analytical headquarters of the GDP that the brains work perfectly.
  3. mig31
    mig31 12 May 2014 09: 27
    0
    With such a policy, a caput will come to the mattresses, and we will set the BANNER OF VICTORY over the capitol, exaggerate it?, Yes !, but you do not need to have seven spans in your forehead, so as not to understand the policy of constant abscesses, as it breaks through where they were created ...
  4. silberwolf88
    silberwolf88 12 May 2014 09: 28
    +4
    Based on what we see, I suppose ... that the plan for Ukraine was not completely thought out ... America did not expect a similar (annexation of Crimea) speed of reaction from Russia and its leadership.
    Therefore, now comprehending what is happening ... the Americans and their allies are trying to transfer tensions to other directions: Southeast Asia (especially our relations with China) ... the next circle in Syria that we supported ... an attempt to escalate old problems in the post-Soviet space. .. and especially our relations with Kazakhstan.
  5. Sergg
    Sergg 12 May 2014 09: 30
    +4
    One of the best articles in recent times. It is worth clarifying that the human mind is a very windy thing, yet conscience is a more fundamental concept. 100% agree that it is not necessary to give in to emotions, that’s how it is, but people are dying, and these people are looking at Russia with hope, they are actually killed for their commitment to Russia.
  6. Yellow white
    Yellow white 12 May 2014 09: 33
    0
    I don’t hope, but I’m sure that in Russia the analytical department doesn’t slurp soup, as they say
    "Proven by Crimea" ...
  7. andj61
    andj61 12 May 2014 09: 35
    +3
    Crimean gambit. Intermediate course


    The gambit is no longer Crimean, but some other. Mariupol Odessa? Slavic? Nobody stutters about Crimea, the Crimean party has won back.
    1. qwert
      12 May 2014 09: 39
      +2
      This was written as a continuation of an article from 30.04.14, for which I was literally torn up on topvar. Although the thoughts I stated are the same. But now time has passed and much has become clearer. But, I left the name for communication with the previous publication.
      1. The comment was deleted.
      2. matross
        matross 12 May 2014 11: 26
        0
        Quote: qwert
        now time has passed and much has become clearer

        What cleared up something? What provoke Russia to war? This was clear even without clarification. And nothing clears up anymore. Who is to blame is known. The only thing left is to understand what to do now! And you can’t fight and it’s impossible not to fight! How to win without starting a war ?! We rely on Putin and his analysts, expect non-standard moves, scare enemies with his ability to hold a pause. This is all true. And if the problem has no solution in principle?
        1. thinker
          thinker 12 May 2014 12: 18
          0
          And if the problem has no solution in principle?

          Why so dark? There were worse times.
  8. buzer
    buzer 12 May 2014 09: 36
    0
    with the SCO will not work. The Chinese will not subscribe.
    1. qwert
      12 May 2014 09: 44
      0
      Kazakhs seem to be too. And by the way, the article was written by 05.05.2014. I would still like to believe that negotiations are underway somewhere with China that are not advertised.
  9. mackonya
    mackonya 12 May 2014 09: 45
    +1
    After the referendum in Donetsk and Lugansk regions, we can no longer think about sending troops, the scenario has already been written for other regions.
  10. mamont5
    mamont5 12 May 2014 09: 46
    0
    "the Budapest Memorandum can be drawn in by justifying the use of military force by the United States, bypassing UN sanctions"

    So he is not ratified, and therefore the price is zero.
    1. qwert
      12 May 2014 15: 07
      0
      On the one hand, thank God. On the other hand, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs referred to it in its memoranda on Ukraine in March and April. True, no one has specifically reacted to these memoranda.
  11. kapitan281271
    kapitan281271 12 May 2014 09: 47
    +1
    Yes, to hell with him, you need to ride on t-90ms all the way to Paris and break all their plan in such a way a joke of course.
  12. Not angry
    Not angry 12 May 2014 09: 59
    +1
    America is an acne that itches all over the body. It is hoped that he will be squeezed out. Hurry up.
  13. Flinky
    Flinky 12 May 2014 09: 59
    0
    Our analysts are better.
  14. koshh
    koshh 12 May 2014 10: 02
    0
    Edward Reshetnikov
    Quote: "Moreover, the main goal, in my opinion, is precisely Russia. And they will try to involve Russia in such a way that the actions we have taken coincide with the scenario already written by Western analysts."
    One can sense, using the example of Crimea, that our analysts won the gambit proposed by the Americans. In this party, I do not understand what the Americans wanted to sacrifice, but the development of the gambit did not go according to their scenario. And now our chess players must consolidate and develop success. As Americans do not try to drag us into a fratricidal war, it does not work. Their homework does not work, and we have not yet launched our own. The feeling that this time our analysts prepared thoroughly, thought through everything to the smallest detail. I hope that soon the game will turn into an instant and unexpected endgame for the Americans, and ours will play a series: check, check, checkmate.
  15. Varang42
    Varang42 12 May 2014 10: 03
    +4
    Quote: Veles75
    it’s not the troops of Russia, but the SCO troops.

    I think not the CSTO, not the SCO, not Russia, the troops will not be introduced ..
    but who is stopping us from acting in the US?
    4000 volunteers from Prednistrovye, Paratroopers from South Ossetia. and I think that this is just the beginning, these comrades will not come / did not come empty-handed, and not in passenger cars ... a huge combat experience .. these are not "regulars" Ukrainians for you, and not hastily trained pravoseki ... soon the balance of power in the SE of Ukraine will change a lot.
    1. Serg65
      Serg65 12 May 2014 14: 10
      +3
      I think not the CSTO, not the SCO, not Russia, the troops will not be introduced ..
      but who is stopping us from acting in the US?
      I have the same opinion, because in our history there have been Spain, China, Angola, Vietnam, Serbia! We didn’t enter troops there, but there were volunteers and arms deliveries to the legitimate government (and the recent referendum will lead to the emergence of a legitimate government, much more legitimate than the Kiev junta)!
    2. qwert
      12 May 2014 15: 08
      0
      I remember a million Chinese "volunteers" during the Korean War)))
  16. VNP1958PVN
    VNP1958PVN 12 May 2014 10: 15
    +2
    SCO is a good idea! Let them fight with China!
  17. X Y Z
    X Y Z 12 May 2014 11: 18
    +1
    I think that while someone is guessing something, things are already being done. This can be recognized by hints in articles and comments and by the fact that Rinat Akhmetov sharply changed his position. The ideology of Ukraine is one thing, and losing your industrial empire is already another. Smart people are already beginning to understand, and this is just the beginning.
  18. max702
    max702 12 May 2014 11: 19
    +1
    Even if Ukraine eventually falls apart into two parts, the goal of the mattresses will be achieved, a hotbed of tension and that is very reminiscent of the DPRK and South Korea. It will be very important what the parties will get if the entire Black Sea coast goes south-east, and the junta does not have access to the coast, it will be a great option for Russia if not the best, and as a huge bonus the border with Transnistria .. But it’s still hostile neoplasm on the borders of the country is nothing good, partially mattresses will reach their goal of love ..
  19. cerbuk6155
    cerbuk6155 12 May 2014 11: 23
    +1
    I think that our president will make the right decision and we will support him.
  20. suharev-52
    suharev-52 12 May 2014 11: 25
    +1
    I hope that in this case, too, an original, unlikely, but very effective solution will be found. Sincerely.
  21. pechv
    pechv 12 May 2014 11: 28
    +2
    The mood during the referendum shows that the goal of making people hate each other in Russia and Ukraine has not been fully achieved. All alignments proceeded from the fact that the local population will destroy everyone who speaks Russian and this will bear fruit. But it turned out that this idea is not so popular - they must cut themselves, as in Odessa, and it is dangerous for implementers.
    So the plans of the world are breaking up on the real common fate of our peoples, who are throwing off the political and technological husk. It seems like the finale of an unsuccessful project to organize the massacre of Russians by Russians.
    Hang on brothers and sisters.
  22. ando_bor
    ando_bor 12 May 2014 11: 28
    +1
    Russia took possession of the chemical weapons of the color revolutions and for the first time seriously applied it in Ukraine, which came as a surprise to America, they lost their monopoly, and now the strike must be transferred to the territory of Europe until the West talks about its ban, and there you can agree.
    The time of unilateral use of these weapons has ended, how much time will pass before its ban, the end of the war, or at least a truce?
    It seems to me that only Moscow was defended, and Crimea is the occupation of Iran in August 41, the same is needed, but the whole war is yet to come.
  23. wax
    wax 12 May 2014 12: 41
    +1
    Now the main thing is to protect the population of Donbass after the referendum (without entering the army) and to prevent the junta’s power from being legitimized with the goal of purging Ukraine from the Nazis.
  24. svskor80
    svskor80 12 May 2014 12: 52
    0
    The most unexpected move will be if the self-defense units of Donbass displace military loyal juntas in the Lviv and Ternopol regions. At the same time, Russia claims that it has no influence on the leadership of the rebels and, in general, they are an independent political and military force. The United States clearly does not want open hostilities with its participation and it will be interesting to look at their actions in such a situation.
  25. Platov
    Platov 12 May 2014 15: 22
    0
    The calorific value of shale gas is three times lower than traditional, which means it needs three times more.
    The deployment of troops to the Outskirts, for which purpose, to protect three people out of 45 million, it makes no sense to give them refuge.
    1. sv68
      sv68 12 May 2014 16: 28
      +1
      We don’t need to enter the territory belonging to Russia-people for centuries; we’ll just open the border and close our eyes to the armed people who came to visit the rebels and the polite military equipment that accidentally came to ukrain — all the guests came to visit, if anyone is interested in explaining
  26. tnk1969
    tnk1969 13 May 2014 11: 08
    0
    It seems to me that right now is the time to deploy Iskander OTR in the Kaliningrad region. And Russia's withdrawal from the Intermediate-Range and Short-Range Missile Treaty. And to announce that the targets for them will be Poland, the Baltics and bases in Germany. And let the Europeans grind it for now. In the meantime, the situation in Ukraine can be brought under control. After all, soon the "election" of their President. And they are unlikely to pass calmly. Everyone understands that Tymoshenko will organize Maidan-3 against the election results. And then let them kill each other. And Pravosekov. Akhmetov and Taruta are unlikely to support any of them. Well, perhaps their preference will be on the side of Tymoshenko. And then a new information war and a split within the illegal clique will begin. I hope so. And there are already prerequisites for this. After all, those who supported the massacre in Odessa and Mariupol, who mock veterans and who defiled the graves and memory of the people are not capable of more. They are waste material and no one will ever shake hands with them. Nowhere in the world.
  27. tnk1969
    tnk1969 13 May 2014 12: 06
    0
    It seems to me that right now is the time to deploy Iskander OTR in the Kaliningrad region. And Russia's withdrawal from the Intermediate-Range and Short-Range Missile Treaty. And to announce that the targets for them will be Poland, the Baltics and bases in Germany. And let the Europeans grind it for now. In the meantime, the situation in Ukraine can be brought under control. After all, soon the "election" of their President. And they are unlikely to pass calmly. Everyone understands that Tymoshenko will organize Maidan-3 against the election results. And then let them kill each other. And Pravosekov. Akhmetov and Taruta are unlikely to support any of them. Well, perhaps their preference will be on the side of Tymoshenko. And then a new information war and a split within the illegal clique will begin. I hope so. And there are already prerequisites for this. After all, those who supported the massacre in Odessa and Mariupol, who mock veterans and who defiled the graves and memory of the people are not capable of more. They are waste material and no one will ever shake hands with them. Nowhere in the world.