Dear forum users! Just want to make a reservation that I do not claim either for the laurels of Nostradamus, or for the vacant position of analyst in any structures. I offer for your consideration and discussion only my personal conclusions. Due to the fact that the abundance of possible links and numbers dispels the reader's attention, they will not exist at all. I offer you my analysis of the situation in Ukraine, one of the possible scenarios of why this whole mess was brewed, and what it might be like. Sorry, I specifically gave the article a literary style for a more complete perception. So…
The end of the twentieth century. Russia. A country with a collapsed economy, huge debts to all sorts of Western banks, "funds" and acute national problems. Already prepared a new war in the Caucasus. Someone, for a general designation - Mister, gladly rubs his hands: it’s not long to wait for Russia. However, the Russian Bear, though mortally ill, still has fangs and claws in the form of its nuclear potential. Therefore, it will not be possible to simply “open it up” openly, although even the surrounding people agree. It is necessary for the Bear to finally weaken from its diseases and from the “help” that Mister has been pushing him into the mouth for ten years. That's when the long-awaited time comes to divide the den and habitat, which the fierce Bear manages to defend with success. Everything is going according to plan, the “stranglehold” is thrown over, and the bundle on it is slowly but surely tightened. And suddenly…
Russia has a new leader, young and bold. He immediately showed his determination and did not flirt with "democracy". The war prepared by Mister did not follow the scenario that had been prepared. Further - more ... Russia paid off foreign debts and began slowly but surely getting up from its knees. Strengthening the army, restoring the economy and, most importantly, returning to the role of a leading world power - these are the priorities identified by the Head. And again, Russian strategic missile carriers appeared in the sky, and submarine cruisers - in the ocean.
The grand plan for the complete collapse of Russia has failed. He failed at that stage, but Mister always has a backup option, already prepared, but temporarily “canned”. One of these options is called the Trojan Horse. I agree that it is not original, but fully expresses its essence and ultimate goal. Here it is: if Medvedev cannot be “tamed”, trained and put on a short chain, then the question must be solved radically, the decision made - “to poison the beast”. To do this, you just need to cook something that the clubfoot cannot refuse in principle, but at the same time “spice up” the treat with a lethal dose of poison.
The people of Russia still have memories of the former power of the USSR, of Soviet social justice. The former republics have become “abroad”, in which there is also a large percentage of “nostalgic”, and two of them have always been considered as a single whole with Russia and inhabited practically by one ethnic group. The “divorce” of these republics was perceived painfully, the ideas of association are constantly in the air. This is the whole plan.
From Belarus "feed" did not work. The stern Old Man came to power in it and turned all the volunteers of Mr. Mister inside with fur. The game on the “national” strings of the Belarusian soul also did not go, the Belarusians stubbornly refuse to distance themselves from the Russians. Sanctions and other attacks did not pass, Russia is actively helping the Old Man financially and morally.
Ukraine remained. Here it is, "zamanuha"! You can not imagine better! The Russians have always had a special, reverent attitude towards Ukraine. Kiev is the mother of Russian cities. Odessa, Sevastopol - the city of Russian glory, the symbols of the Great Victory. Russian language, Russian culture, absolute identity of mentality. Half of the territory is in the past Little Russia, Tavrida, fragments of the great Empire, "forgotten" by the drunkard and given to the new Ukraine. But there is the second half ...
Western Ukraine ... Territories joined before the Great War, the former provinces of Romania, Czechoslovakia, Hungary and Poland. The territory where hatred was instilled in Russia for decades and everything Russian. All история the formation of Ukraine is a struggle between its West and East.
And now the “orange” revolution has gone through Ukraine, the main focus of which was placed on national identity. They told the people something like this. Suppose there is something wrong with the economy, but you know, people, that Adam was ukrom, and that Great Ukraine had stretched before the Volga and the Caucasian ridges. That life in Ukraine would be generally comfortable if not for Russia. These "Muscovites" took away your gas, your oil and constantly put sticks in the wheels of the Ukrainian carts. And also, ukry, we feed them all our lives and we still feed them Ukrainian bread and lard, because Russians are all drunks and lazy. And it worked!
The overwhelming majority suddenly felt like true Ukrainians. Gradually, everything connected with Russia was squeezed and erased from memory. Actions in spite of Russia have become the norm, a sort of bravado and a dandy of its own “independence”. Any negotiations turned into a farce, Ukraine frankly blackmailed Russia, "building" eyes on the West. The preparatory phase for the main action was completed, the performers and driving force for the future were determined. The election began a transitional period to the main action.
The one whom everyone has positioned as a “pro-Russian” henchman came to power in Ukraine. And he himself did not particularly deny it. Note for yourself - “pro-Russian”, this is important. In fact, a clan came to power in the country, which began a grandiose repartition of property and its transfer from state pockets to its own. In record time, the playful hands of the clan representatives gathered the remnants of the Ukrainian industry and the money allocated for its restoration. Mass discontent reached boiling point. Again, they needed Russian money and discounts on everything. Before the next negotiations, they decided to slightly “intimidate” Russia, for which they made a lot of harsh rapprochement with the EU. Russia was not afraid, but in some places it began to give way. Ukrainian Grabber decided that the deed was done, but Mister thought otherwise.
A go-ahead was given, and the languidly boiling cauldron, which was Ukraine, exploded. The general masses of dissatisfied and peacefully protesting citizens were led by nationalist militants who arrived from the western regions. It was then that for the first time it sounded that Gapuga was not just a thief, but a protege of Russia and did everything especially for the collapse of the country, at the direction of the Russians.
And now the “revolution” swept away the dynasty of thieves. "Truth and Freedom" triumphed. The goal of the Ukrainian people has been achieved. This is where the most incomprehensible in the whole history of the Ukrainian revolution begins. The next day, the new Rada passed laws that, by all logic and sound mind, could not be taken, they were clearly provocative and deadly to preserve the unity of the country. The "revolutionaries" could not understand this a priori. The reaction of Russia was not long in coming, it was predictable, most importantly, it was calculated by Mister. Further more…
Loud statements and deliberately provocative actions by the new Kiev authorities and its henchmen in the provinces followed. Crimea was the first to explode, and here Russia, preemptively (but predictably), slammed the fist on the table. Remember the instant development of events, the urgent postponement of the referendum and the sudden, loud reception of the Crimea to Russia. Why is the month for the Ukrainian authorities practically inactive, seeing what is happening? Couldn't do anything? Rave! Forces, means and capabilities were there, but Mister was silent and did not give commands. Why? Because the Bear predictably rushed to the kindly decomposed bait and at once swallowed it. And then came the moment of entering the arena of what is actually called the “Trojan Horse”.
The Trojan Horse is the south-eastern region of Ukraine. In any case, the situation is already working for Mister. I explain. Crimea was a fuse that lit a fire in these areas. The conflict is there, deliberately heated and will gradually be brought from civil confrontation to civil war. New Ukrainian power rushing through, often frankly provoking Russia to active actions. From the rebel areas more persistently there are calls for assistance to the "insurgent" people. Only here there are no people! There are groups of citizens who, in comparison with the population, are just a miser. The Kiev authorities are sluggish in carrying out an operation to restore “order,” I would even say, in a measured manner, exactly so that the conflict does not subside. The only task is to make Russia directly intervene in the events. The West froze in anticipation: would the Russian Bear swallow a poisoned main course? The sanctions imposed by Mister and deliberately loud statements are a red herring. That is why they are of such declarative nature.
If Russia enters the army, it will be resisted actively. Killed on both sides, burning and destroyed Ukrainian villages (if we don’t set fire to ours, then they will be “helped” to burn). Kiev authorities will turn to the nation and, believe me, it will respond. The war will be real, getting involved in it, Russia will take the path of its own destruction. After all, if we “liberate” the Southeast and the newly formed republics become part of Russia, then all their problems will come to us with them. Destroyed economy, unprofitable production, ruined social sphere. The Russian economy will not sustain additional costs unequivocally. Example: from where to pay pensions to three or four million pensioners, if they had worked for another state for a quarter of a century? And benefits? And so on all points - the budget will simply collapse.
However, even this is not the worst. Together with these territories will come the population, about half of which is now for the "united" Ukraine. Ideologically hardened, physically prepared. Infection Maidan crawl across Russia, and the difficult economic situation will be fertile soil for her. The West can “help” here (real sanctions, a collapse in prices for oil and gas). The financial losses of the West, about which our “patriots” speak with delight, will not be compared with its subsequent profit! And how much time will remain until the fires of tires on the squares of our cities? And the Kiev authorities will write off everything on the war, join NATO, which will immediately place its bases on the territory of Ukraine.
If Russia does not intervene, the speeches will be suppressed, and gradually explain the defeat of the supporters of federalization by betrayal on the part of Russia. There will be a final rupture of the roots on the basis of frustration. Ukraine will join NATO, with all the other charms of this bloc.
So. The goal has already been achieved: the Ukrainians began to see their main enemy in Russia. Not all yet, but the events are not over. There is such a position in chess - zugzwang, when any move leads to loss. We are driven into this position by pushing the Trojan Horse insistently. Everything depends on the wisdom of our Head and Russian diplomacy.
Mister has a lot of experience in such multi-paths, and his analysts are far from stupid people. Look at everything that happens under a different, not shrill-patriotic angle. You will see a lot of interesting, yet inexplicable. Many of your questions with this view will find the answer, and the scattered puzzles of events will converge into a single picture.
I did not forget many trivia and facts, but deliberately lowered them.
With respect to all - IRBIS (Alexander).