It is unlikely that the military expected to crush the militia with one blow; Most likely, reconnaissance by force was conceived: verification of the ability of the Pitmen to put up serious resistance and, at the same time, to probe Russia's reaction. After Shoigu’s announcement about the beginning of the border exercises, the government forces stopped the offensive and retreated, as was probably planned. It is understandable: to keep a bridgehead in a hostile territory is not an easy task, and why, if the army has power outages? In general, the government had a clear opportunity to make sure that the “blitzkrieg” did not work out (the military understood this, of course).
I really hope that this will cool the hotheads and open people's eyes to the depth of the gap between the position of temporary workers and residents of the Southeast. However, the. President Turchinov immediately stopped doubts, saying that the operation will continue. The military probably remembered him with a kind word. It is not easy for them, and then the commander-in-chief announces their intentions to the whole world.
For reconnaissance in combat is usually part of a larger operation, which is indirectly confirmed by the recent report of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine on the deployment and combat readiness of air defense forces. Those whose specialists, according to the Russian military, caused noticeable damage to their air force in the Georgian 2008 war. These are serious preparations for a fight in the event of the entry of Russian troops. Let alone they will not war for a long time, but they can declare themselves and create an image of a heroically fighting army.
Thank God, the Air Force and heavy weapons have not yet gone into action, since their use puts the civilian population at risk and automatically puts the conflict under the Georgian scenario. This means that the Russian interim government invasions and their Western advisers are still wary of what is already good, but late in the day. If, prior to the assault on troop introduction, the media broadcast purely theoretically and in the same breath with “God forbid”, now analysts have moved on to discuss specific tasks, the depth of entry, responsibility for the sustenance of the occupied territories, the preservation of the industrial base, the conditions of the withdrawal of troops, the possible influx of refugees etc. The mutual statement of violations of the Geneva accords, which soon followed, completely removes the situation from the fuse.
So what will happen next? The answer should probably be sought in the interests of the participants.
Russia. On the one hand, it is advantageous to pull the rubber, no matter how cynical it sounds, until the economic consequences of the coup fully affect the welfare of the people, which is likely to lead to a new Maidan, only against the interim government. It is not necessary to count on emergency financial assistance from the West in the required amounts, and even after its receipt it will take time to sell the funds for the intended purpose. On the other hand, Russia cannot allow the May elections in the wake of nationalism, Russophobia and without the participation of the population of the insurgent regions, which, of course, will not be allowed to vote until resistance is completely suppressed. It is not clear what will happen to the Constitution, which they are now actively trying to rewrite (after all, the issue of government, federalization is primarily a matter of the Constitution).
The best option for Russia is to disrupt premature elections and delay the situation until the Ukrainians are fully aware of the consequences of the coup. It will be painful, but, in any case, no worse than Polish shock therapy. People have been fed so much with promises and “dynamics” that the consequences of the choice made should be communicated to each and every one separately. It is possible to prepare the Constitution and hold elections only after the majority realize the real situation in the country. Otherwise, Ukraine will again have to choose between the bad, the very bad, and the unknown.
Consequently, Russia will not allow suppressing the rebellion of the East and will feed it, as evidenced by the well-informed Russian defense minister about the situation and the exact number of bayonets and trunks of opponents. Tactically, the time will continue to pull from all sides, not giving a break, gather strength and begin to plan actions in advance. The initiative in this, of course, the rebels and Russia, the interim government is clearly working in a fire mode from crisis to crisis.
The foregoing does not exclude the “October” version, in which a group of well-organized, trained and determined people with a clear plan of action implements a new coup and shifts the provisional government together with the acting president. the president. Candidates for the role of such a group are, for example, peacekeepers from the Razumovsky Cascade or even the Right Sector. There is not much to worry about the Rada - our deputies are accommodating and change their views along the way, almost all at the same time.
Provisional Government. For the ruling troika and members of the interim government of Ukraine, Tymoshenko’s coming to power is the only way to stay at the trough and avoid paying for their deeds. And the prime minister, and. President - her associates and natural allies. With the current rating favorite Poroshenko, the place in power does not shine for them, which means that they will have to bear responsibility sooner or later, especially for the collapse of the economy and the use of the army against the people. In general, these people amaze me. Yatsenyuk regularly changes his statements to the exact opposite - his main goal is that young people speak English instead of Russian and go to study in Europe, then he guarantees the Russian people the equality of the Russian language to the Southeast ... like a weather vane. There is no money in the treasury, production and exports are falling, the gold and foreign exchange reserves are melting, and its essence (economist by training!) Economic policy is reduced to soliciting financial assistance from everyone on any conditions, even the toughest for the country.
In this, however, the temporary worker is not alone. In spite of all my efforts, I could not find any kind of realistic economic program for any presidential candidate. One of the most important problems of the country - the energy issue - is decided, like an ostrich, thrusting its head into the sand (we take gas, do not agree with the price, do not pay money, if you want - go to court). For the sake of completeness, it is worth noting that since the gas supplier is Russia, the issues of reverse without its participation cannot be resolved, not to mention the purely technical aspects of pumping and the presence of excess gas from intermediaries. It seems that temporary workers live day after day, hoping to hold out to the elections and pass the baton (for which, at a minimum, the civil war and anarchy need to be stopped).
Poroshenko. He looks personable, behaves pragmatically and so far, it seems, he has not particularly stained anything (with the exception of a few expressions from the shoulder), therefore he is unlikely to want to associate with everyone who was in power before. I think that he, as a pragmatist, suits Europe, but does not suit the United States, mainly because they have already relied on supporters of a woman with a scythe. So it is too early to celebrate victory.
Julia. Tymoshenko pushes something - on Shuster’s program he speaks about entrusting the presidential election to parliament (this is a convenient means of leveling Poroshenko’s rating and at the same time fewer people need to bend), then calls Putin the enemy of Ukraine No. XXUMX, then Russians want from nuclear weapons to shoot. Embittered a prison person, she would take leave, and she wanders around the regions and pretends to be something else as a politician. She forgot, probably, that she was no longer in the Soviet Union, where, by design, each cook could manage. I still have a couple of T-shirts with 2008 with slogans like “Yulia”, “LOVE”, etc. - father's gift, and even at home ashamed to wear.
USA. What benefits Washington? Westernized platform in Ukraine. It will not be possible to get the whole, so at least a piece, a small bridgehead, which can be democratized and protected from Russia, Belarus, China, and of North Korea, to the cupola. In Kiev, they say, they are full of their consultants and analysts (even the head of the CIA and the vice-president of the United States came across). The rulers are in dire need of their help, because they themselves do not really know how to fix the situation and what to do for the future. Whatever they do, comes back as a boomerang. The problem here is that the interests of the United States and ordinary Ukrainians differ greatly. The USA is less demanding - they are, for example, quite satisfied with the decline in production - they will ask for a loan, which means they will become dependent, and there will be less competition from local producers, more cheap labor. They will not particularly object to the division of the country - even the Lviv region will be enough for their purposes, let us remember Kosovo.
Personally, I am deeply convinced that Western analysts do not understand Slavic-Orthodox psychology in principle, therefore their ability to predict, for example, the reaction of the government or the people of Russia to the notorious sanctions, is very limited. It is difficult for them to accept that the Russians, without hesitation, will choose the national interests of all, regardless of the material damage for several "guilty". A good indicator of their competence was история with a symbolic red button "LOADING" (instead of "Reloading"), which was presented to the President of Russia. At this level, they could have worked hard and checked the meaning of the word, because it changed the meaning of the gift to the exact opposite.
It should be remembered that for the US (and Europe) there is a trail of failure to fulfill the financial and political promises made by the USSR when Germany was united, then the former republics after the collapse of the USSR and the Warsaw Pact, the Serbs after the bombing of Yugoslavia, the entire world community before intervention in Libya, and so on. P. Nobody got a serious comradely or even partner help. In return, all recipients somehow migrated to the economic rank of third world countries or became dependent. In general, trusting “their” consultants is a rather risky business.
Europe. She seems to have suspended herself. Too close to the events, too dangerous to quarrel with Russia, too financially costly, and the population begins to resent the ob-Nazi theme of Yarosh. I do not want to create the appearance of disagreement with the United States, which, through the mouth of its official representative, has already sent Europe to engage in sex alone. Their protégé, Klitschko, left the stage in favor of Poroshenko; he is probably considered a stronger and more profitable figure in the long run and hopes that “democracy” will take its toll. Oh well. In general, Europe has moved into a waiting mode.
The people of Ukraine. This is what is in the interests of the people of Ukraine, who was symbolically at the end of the list of interested parties:
1. To be at the head of the list and take an active position.
2. To hold local and general referendums on the future structure of the country (federal or otherwise) and the new Constitution.
3. Free and fair presidential elections based on the new Constitution, preferably not at gunpoint.
4. The re-election of the parliament and the renewal of the government, which will confirm the neutral status of Ukraine, will guarantee non-alignment with NATO, as well as go for reconciliation and good neighborly relations with Russia.
Unfortunately, this scenario is still illusory: after all, there is simply no time to prepare and discuss the Constitution with the people before the appointed elections. In the light of the current state of affairs, the holding of full-fledged elections is also almost unreal, therefore, candidates are not particularly zealous with election campaigns. If we add to this the interests of the temporary rulers and the unwillingness of deputies to lose their seats, the people seem to expect disappointment.
Last but not least ...
In order to pass through this test with honor, both Russians and Ukrainians, among other things, need to take a breath and include mutual respect. Without this, you don’t need to dig a trench around the perimeter, we’ll stop going to each other for a visit.
Some Russians will not prevent to stop Ukraine as a suburb, and the Ukrainian language as an Eastern Russian dialect, anyone will get it. One "patriot" once said to me that Ukrainian and not a language at all, they say, does not even have its own literature. For information to all who agree with him, only an anthology of Ukrainian classics, published, by the way, in the “prison of nations” of the USSR, consisted of 80 volumes. In modern Ukraine, however, I did not observe such publications, maybe it was just unlucky. But think, these are only classics! The language has its own grammar, and the students, like their Russian colleagues, get tails for not observing it. Ukrainian is not inferior to Italian in melodiousness and is contemplating the title ideal for classical vocals (ask a professional vocalist if you do not believe me).
Ukrainians, in turn, should stop making sacrifices of themselves and be proud of their uniqueness. We must learn to respect our northern neighbor not for strength, but for content that cannot be distinguished from most of us. In this regard, I was particularly upset by Nastya Dmitruk's poem that “we will never be brothers ...” From the expression on her face, it can be seen that the girl is good, kind and talented, only offended and, frankly, she still needs to write and write to Lesya Ukrainka. Is it possible so all the same brush? I wonder what to do with those who have brothers in Russia? And who has children or parents? And it’s immodest to call yourself great, it’s already propaganda, especially when a music video is made from your work and they are shoved everywhere, like Grryjoly from Maidan a decade ago ago.
I sincerely hope that the next article will be more optimistic.