Independence in Kyrgyzstan failed. The United States could not shake the political situation in the republic
Having got stuck in the Ukrainian crisis, which clearly went wrong, as was expected in Washington, the United States decided to defocus Russia's attention by organizing riots in other CIS countries. One of them was Kyrgyzstan, vulnerable to external intervention due to the weakness of the economy, social instability, as well as a softer political regime compared to other Central Asian countries.The National Opposition Movement “The Patriotic Forces of Kyrgyzstan”, which claims the status of a united opposition, became the strike force of the United States. A new opposition movement was created on February 12 at a meeting of leaders of opposition political parties. It includes many “professional” oppositionists - Melis Myrzakmatov, who heads the party “Uluttar Birimdigi”, Omurbek Suvanaliev, Kamchybek Tashiev, Azimbek Beknazarov, as well as the “People’s Democratic Party of Kyrgyzstan” headed by Artur Medetbekov. Many of them have successfully “fought” with the political regime in Kyrgyzstan for more than a decade. The presentation of the movement took place on February 26 - almost simultaneously with the most acute phase of the “Ukrainian revolution”, which ended with the overthrow of V. Yanukovich.
The leader of the New Opposition Movement, Ravshan Jeenbekov (in the photo), outlined three of his main goals: restoring the constitution, completely broken by President A. Atambayev, who actually turned the republic from parliamentary to presidential, strengthening parliamentarism and fighting authoritarianism. “We believe that in four years the president did not do anything,” said R. Jeenbekov, “his promises and our hopes melt away like spring snow, power merges with crime, this was evident in Saruu and in Osh when there were attempts to dump Melis Myrzakmatov from the post of mayor. Having created a new movement, we will oppose the regime and offer our vision of the country's development. ” Kyrgyzstan is struggling with authoritarianism almost since the collapse of the USSR. The republic has already become the leader among the CIS countries in terms of the number of revolutions, twice (2005 and 2010) sending the retirement of the current presidents through a violent change of power. The united opposition apparently decided not to forget the old traditions.
Against the background of general declarative goals, much more interesting are the specific projects with which the New Opposition Movement intends to work. As Ravshan Dzheenbekov himself explained to 26 in February, these include fighting the plans of the current leadership of Kyrgyzstan to join the Customs Union and the largest investment project implemented with the help of foreign companies - the Kumtor gold mine. “For the CU, the president sells all strategic facilities, and the question of Kumtor should be decided in a referendum in general, he explained,“ In general, we propose denouncing the agreement with Kumtor and starting new negotiations. ” Both projects pose a clear threat to the economic security of Kyrgyzstan.
Kumtor is one of the largest taxpayers producing the lion’s share of GDP, and refusal to participate in Eurasian integration threatens the republic with economic isolation, and becoming China’s economic protectorate, which is actively developing the Kyrgyz market.
The first test of the forces of the New Opposition Movement took place on April 10, when rallies were simultaneously held in the largest cities of Kyrgyzstan. They were small in scale. In Bishkek, about 1 thousand people came to the rally, in the southern capital - Osh - 150 people, in Jalal-Abad - about 400 people. The rally in Bishkek was over for dinner. Speaking with the “final” speech, R. Jeenbekov said: “We must show the authorities what a peaceful rally is ... They tried to prevent us from holding a rally, but, nevertheless, it took place. If we are not heard, then next time we will gather as many, even more people. ” In fact, the situation could not be shaken, and the leaders of the united opposition were forced to dissolve the crowd. About 200 people were detained by Kyrgyz security forces, but all of them were released after prophylactic conversations. According to R. Jeenbekov himself, 500 thousand soms were spent on organizing the rally. Where such funds came from, he did not explain.
Some methods of political struggle were clearly borrowed from Ukrainian colleagues. However, the authorities were obviously ready for this, trying to neutralize the most active oppositionists, while simultaneously conducting explanatory work among the population. Thus, in Bishkek, the Ministry of Internal Affairs officers detained a group of militants who wanted to attract the attention of citizens and interfered with the normal work of institutions, enterprises, organizations and educational institutions of the city. Medical masks and slingshots were found in some bags. According to the Kyrgyz news agency 24.kg, “around 20-25 young men in medical masks arrived in Karakol, but they dispersed after conducting explanatory conversations”.
To mobilize the protesters, the organizers of the protests tried to make full use of the specifics of Kyrgyzstan - the presence of strong clan (tribal) ties. According to the press service of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Kyrgyzstan, among the protesters were residents of the village of Saruu, who were renowned for protesting the arrest of their fellow villager in early February of this year, organized a rally and blocked the highway Balykchy - Karakol. Saruu is a Kyrgyz tribe of the left wing (among the Kirghiz there is a characteristic division of the tribes into right, left and center), whose representatives live in Talas, Jalal-Abad regions and Saruy aiyl district of Dzheti-Oguz district of Issyk-Kul region. R. Jeenbekov himself was born in Talas oblast, who attracted his fellow tribesmen to participate in the rallies.
It is noteworthy that in December of last year, R. Jeenbekov himself passed the "practice" on the Kiev Maidan, where he addressed the protesters and declared their full support.
“One gets the impression that backstage inspirers of Euromaidan announced some kind of general gathering in Kiev,” the Kyrgyz newspaper Delo No.… wrote in this connection to December 19 in December, in particular, ex-President of Georgia Mikhail Saakashivili, former Prime Minister of Poland Jaroslav Kaczynski, acting Foreign Minister of Lithuania Linas Linkiavicius. Large caliber players looked out from behind the scenes - for example, US Undersecretary of State Victoria Nuland and, finally, one of the main Washington hawks - Senator John McCain ... Well, Ravshan Jeenbekov was the only representative of Kyrgyzstan in this brigade. To whom, as far as we know, in Washington, they have predicted (and, perhaps, are still being chosen) for the role of “Kyrgyz Saakashvili”.
The authorities tried to conduct a dialogue with ordinary participants in the rallies. The plenipotentiary representative of the government in the Jalal-Abad region, Jusupzhan Jeenbekov, for example, stated that “we had a dialogue with the protesters, not confrontation”. “It is possible to demand a change of power only in a constitutional way,” he noted, “There is a president, a parliament elected by the majority of the population. Want to change? There are elections to this. ” The deep political crisis that Ukraine found itself in was clearly a good lesson for Kyrgyzstan. According to D. Jeenbekov: “People are watching TV, they see what Ukraine has come to, which may soon simply disappear from the world map. We need to preserve unity, the country. I talk about this during meetings with the population. Just the other day I visited three districts, listened to the demands, opinions, requests of people. Will be working. Now not to rallies. Spring field work is in full swing. ” To remove social tensions, the authorities are taking practical measures, allocating almost three times more preferential loans for farmers this year.
The Americans preferred to disown from the support of the New Opposition Movement. On April 3, Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asia Nisha Bisval stated that “the United States does not favor any political party, does not support or finance anyone,” since their goal is to support democratic processes and build a democratic society in Kyrgyzstan.
At the same time, the next visit of the American diplomat to the republic oddly coincided with the meetings organized by the united opposition.
According to the US Embassy in Kyrgyzstan, on April X, April 11, Assistant Secretary of State for Public Relations Dag Franz visited Bishkek, and the next day - Osh. He had no official meetings and negotiations with high-ranking officials. But Doug Franz met with representatives of the government, civil society, journalists, discussed with them the role of social networks, and also read several lectures for students. The mention of social networks is far from coincidental, since they became one of the main tools for organizing the “Arab Spring” and the Ukrainian crisis.
Meanwhile, the pro-American nature of the activities of the New Opposition Movement still lies. So, 10 of April “Fergana.ru”, covering the rally in Bishkek, reported that among the protesters “Part of them are holding the flags of Kyrgyzstan. There are also posters with the inscription “Atambaev, hands off“ Manas ”. For the preservation of the American military base in Kyrgyzstan, it was Ravshan Jeenbekov who was persistently speaking. February 4 on the Russian-language Kyrgyz Internet resource "Gezitter.org" published his article "Six reasons to leave the base", in which he thoroughly argued the need to preserve the American military presence in the republic. The main reasons why Kyrgyzstan should maintain the base in Manas, he considered the possibility of obtaining rent, jobs for local residents, maintaining partnership with the United States and the security problem, which would be threatened after the Americans left Afghanistan. Moreover, according to him, the American base from Mansai can simply migrate to one of the neighboring states of Central Asia, and Kyrgyzstan will simply lose in the competition for American money.
It is interesting that in relation to Russia R. Jeenbekov expressed directly opposite views. 10 of March “Fergana.ru” published his material entitled “Political Replica’s Replica: On Military Security in Central Asia”. Analyzing the military-political situation in the region, he “refutes” the common myth about the Chinese threat, claiming that “...story suggests that the PRC did not observe aggression, attempts to forcibly seize even a meter of our lands, and the threat to our integrity and sovereignty was not observed either. ” The countries of the West are not dangerous either, since "... none of the European countries or America, did not send in their troops and did not threaten the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Central Asian states."
Russia, in the opinion of R. Jeenbekov, is not a friendly country either for Kyrgyzstan or for other countries in the region.
Since it "... under the pretext of protecting the interests of the Russian-speaking population ... interfered in the internal affairs of its neighbors and actually seized foreign territories, thereby violating the international principle of territorial integrity and sovereignty of states." As the Russian threat “is approaching our borders every day”, “Central Asian countries need to start a regional dialogue to search for guarantees of the inviolability of our borders, to revise the concepts of national security and foreign policy priorities in view of this risk.”
Against this background, April 10 rallies look like just a test of strength, during which organizational, financial, and logistic schemes for provoking riots were worked out. It is not by chance that right after the end of the rally, R. Jeenbekov told journalists that “the opposition took the first step, held a mass meeting and voiced its demands,” and now there will be no meetings at least for a month. Through 3 - 4 weeks, the New Opposition Movement plans to offer the authorities an alternative development program for the country, the main goal of which is to make the republic fully parliamentary. In the conditions of Kyrgyzstan, which already suffers from chronic socio-political instability and social problems, the implementation of this scenario will almost inevitably lead to a loss of controllability and the final collapse of statehood. The struggle between the northern, southern elites and various groups within them, as well as the poverty of the population, before whose eyes they twice overthrew the existing presidents, will create a situation of political and economic chaos. However, as the experience of Ukraine shows, this does not contradict the interests of the United States, which the prospects of Kyrgyzstan, like other countries of the region, are of little interest.
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