Military Review

Inertia of war

34
Inertia of warIn early June in Syria, presidential elections will be held. The registration of candidates has begun.


Two years ago, constitutional reform started in the country. Municipal and parliamentary elections were held successively; in 2014, a presidential election is to be held. Moreover, if earlier they were essentially a referendum, where voters had to say “yes / no” to the only candidate, then now it is the election of several candidates.

"Now Syria will have a democratically elected president - it definitely won't get any worse"

Naturally, the West has already announced that it does not recognize the results, since they contradict the Geneva accords. The fact that the Geneva talks were thwarted by the opposition, which turned out to be incapable of minimal control over the seemingly “their” gangs, is not taken into account.
No less predictably, Syria does not pay attention to the opinion of the West, since all previous elections were also not recognized by the United States, or by Europe, or by opponents of Syria in the Arab world.

1

Of course, the situation has changed dramatically over the past two years. The meaning that was invested in constitutional reform has long been lost. If in 2012, there was still an illusion that it would be possible to find a common language with the opposition and stop civil confrontation, allowing opposition figures to the levers of control, today nobody is talking about this, actually.

The opposition has demonstrated its complete incapacity in both ideological and organizational aspects. The only force with which one could hope for negotiations was the Free Syrian Army of Colonel Riyad Al-Assad. But after the injury of Assad and the seizure of command of the army Selim Idris, it turned into an unprincipled conglomeration of various territorial gangs under a formal single command. A significant part of the SSA has already passed to the Islamists, with whom it is impossible in principle to conduct any negotiations.

However, the reform is being carried out and will be completed. This will be done simply because any such process has its own internal logic. And it's easier to complete it as planned, than to start all over again. In any case, now Syria will have a democratically elected president - it certainly will not get any worse.

2

The main problem for a long time already has not an internal, but purely external content. The coalition of aggressors, united for the destruction of Syria, in the same way gained momentum and will continue the war.

Qatar’s withdrawal from this war and the aggravation of its contradictions with Saudi Arabia, the unclear situation in Turkey, the spread of war to the territory of the western provinces of Iraq almost do not change the nature of the clashes in Syria. There is a huge human potential that continues to be used by terrorists as a consumable item.

In Syria, people are actively fighting from more and more distant countries and regions. According to the Syrians, the percentage of Caucasians is very large among the mercenaries, and this is not only “Russian” Caucasians (first of all, from Dagestan), but also Azerbaijanis who have ceased to be exotic. There are mercenaries from Central Asia. For example, videos with ethnic Uzbek grouping are actively distributed. There are quite considerable European groups in numbers, in which there are many “white” Europeans.

3

Syria has become a training ground that lives its own life. Jihadists largely solved the problem of self-financing, and therefore are not too dependent on cash inflows from outside. They do not need heavy weapons - they get everything they need in the form of trophies, and for more serious weapons and they have neither technicians nor organizational capabilities to use, operate and maintain. Therefore, they do not need powerful missile, artillery weapons, air support, they have gained experience in the actions of "ac is" and quite cope.

The Syrian army and the government also entered the mode of the most economical war, not allowing themselves to spend a resource without reckoning - neither material nor human. In this mode, the war can continue for a very long time, and this war, in fact, does not have any ultimate goal.
For jihadists, war acquired a self-contained content, and therefore negotiations have no meaning — there is no subject.

At the same time, a year and a half ago, it became clear that the jihadists could not win a military victory over government forces. The only thing that can fundamentally change the situation is an external invasion or the introduction of a “no-fly zone” option, like in Libya, when the West destroys military targets and the Syrian infrastructure, thereby breaking the situation in favor of the terrorists. However, this option was never included, and it is not yet clear that it can be passed to it.

4

However, the situation does not look very stalemate. Syria's economy is being destroyed, the number of refugees is growing. The other day it was announced that a million refugees had moved in the direction of Turkey during the entire war. Approximately the same number of people who left for Lebanon and Jordan should be added to them, besides there is a very large number of internal refugees.

Destroyed the main industrial centers of the country or disrupted supply routes. The only industry that operates in a relatively normal and almost pre-war mode is agriculture, and then mostly in Latakia.

Difficulties and difficulties gradually accumulate, and although as long as the Syrian authorities cope with them as a whole, when the quantity goes into quality, nobody knows. It is possible that never. It is possible that a fracture may occur. Actually, this is the whole calculation of both the West and the Arabian monarchs. No crushing blows are planned anymore, the war is going to be exhausted.

The June 3 presidential election will not change the existing situation. The problem is that they are of no interest to anyone - everyone understands everything anyway.

However, Damascus proved that it is able to solve problems in the most disastrous situation. The Assad government withstood the powerful blows of well-prepared operations, and withstands the war of attrition. So far, there are no signs that Asad will not be able to cope with the situation anymore.

5

Perhaps one of the most important questions is whether the West will suit such a blatant failure of its policy? Will he decide to try to “add” Syria, especially considering that Russia is now fully occupied with problems on its own western border.

The question is not simple and does not look straightforward. The West is too heterogeneous, and even in a state of crisis. And it must be borne in mind that the crisis is not an ordinary economic downturn, beyond which there will be an inevitable recovery. He wears all signs of a system, that is, within the framework of the current world order can not be resolved. In such a situation, contradictions between the elites of the West are inevitable, and talking about some kind of unified policy on any issue is simply meaningless.

Therefore, it is possible to expect provocations, the purpose of which will be to involve the United States (simply because there is no one more) in the military operation against Syria. Let this operation be limited, but its customers may have the illusion that this will be enough for the final change of the situation.

Nevertheless, in order for a forceful attempt to intervene in the Syrian war to be effective, the West must do a very serious systematic work, and most importantly, determine the goal it wants to achieve through the collapse of Syria.

And here lies the most important. For all the years of the war in the United States, the final answer was not formulated, what exactly is the purpose of regime change in Syria. Not because it does not exist, but because different groups see this goal differently.
Approximately the same situation exists in the Arabian monarchies. Their elites assess the situation very, very differently, so their own struggle flares up there.

***

A year ago, a ruler was replaced in Qatar - Amir Hamad, the main instigator of the Syrian war, left. Just a few days ago, a similar thing happened in Saudi Arabia - one of the leading supporters of the Syrian war, Prince Bandar bin Sultan, was dismissed.

The departure of Emir Hamad practically brought Qatar out of the Syrian war, and although he still provides indirect support to a number of terrorist groups, in general, Qatar’s participation in the Syrian events has been curtailed. The resignation of Prince Bandar may in the near future lead to the same consequences for Saudi Arabia. And if this happens, the US hawks will have little chance of intensifying the Syrian war.

This does not mean that it will end quickly. Unfortunately, the war has gained internal inertia and will continue in one form or another for a long time. However, the departure of the main sponsors will put an end to the attempts of jihadists to solve the main task - the creation of a radical Islamist state in Iraq and Syria.
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http://vz.ru/opinions/2014/4/25/683943.html
34 comments
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  1. Stiletto
    Stiletto April 29 2014 15: 04
    +14
    Naturally, the West has already announced that it will not recognize the results, since they contradict the Geneva agreements.

    The West, too, no one recognizes. As well as the Geneva agreements. Good luck to the popularly elected Syrian President Bashar al-Assad!
    1. Biolant
      Biolant April 29 2014 15: 11
      +8
      Yeah, Putin and Lavrov amazingly harassed their faces in r ... not the whole west and the EU in Syria)))
    2. platitsyn70
      platitsyn70 April 29 2014 15: 41
      +3
      Naturally, the West has already announced that it will not recognize the results, since they contradict the Geneva agreements.
      it is necessary to start a company against the West, to set up states like the United States is doing now, the UN and Geneva have outlived themselves, they are not fulfilling their functions, they are just dancing to the tune of the United States, it is necessary to create a new international authority and preferably without the United States.
      1. maxxdesign
        maxxdesign April 29 2014 16: 24
        +1
        as long as these three obscene letters "USA" exist, they will never do this! and to avoid the United States need to abandon green toilet paper with portraits of amerskih preziks and slave owners! and in order to completely abandon these pieces of paper, a strong economy is needed so as not to collapse on its own.
        such a rebus
    3. Gluxar_
      Gluxar_ April 29 2014 16: 26
      +1
      Quote: Stiletto
      The West, too, no one recognizes. As well as the Geneva agreements. Good luck to the popularly elected Syrian President Bashar al-Assad!

      Haven't read El Murid for a long time. Although he has always been an "alarmist", he looks at the situation quite soberly.
      I see that the events in Syria are far from moving into a sluggish conflict. Both sides, on the contrary, are accumulating resources. I would pay attention to three upcoming events.
      The first is the final solution to the chemical problem. weapons. Much depends on what rhetoric will be after the removal of the last container.

      The second is a deal between Iran and Russia on barter supplies. There is a suspicion that part of the deal concerns the supply of defense industry products to Syria, perhaps the contract for S-300 will still be completed. For back in 2012 it was stated that the contract was valid and that the training of personnel for servicing these systems would be completed by mid-2014.

      And third, this is of course the Ukrainian question. If the aggravation of the situation leads to an increase in the confrontation between Russia and the West, this will undoubtedly affect the Syrian issue. Especially considering the other parties to the Syrian conflict - Qatar and the Saudis.

      The election is good, but still the fate of the Syrian people is decided today in the trenches.
      1. SHI69
        SHI69 April 29 2014 21: 13
        +2
        however as well as Ukrainian.
    4. 1812 1945
      1812 1945 April 29 2014 19: 01
      +1
      Quote: Stiletto
      Naturally, the West has already announced that it will not recognize the results, since they contradict the Geneva agreements.

      The West, too, no one recognizes. As well as the Geneva agreements. Good luck to the popularly elected Syrian President Bashar al-Assad!

      I join, Stiletto to the wishes of good luck to this truly worthy person - Bashar al-Assad! Thanks to the author of the article - competently and objectively. An interesting analysis of the possible development of events is presented. The only thing that can be said with confidence: until the existing financial system is destroyed and the United States is practically a monopolist in it, the war in Syria will continue, new conflicts will erupt and coups will take place - all that they will consider necessary in the pursuit of its hegemony.
  2. Validator
    Validator April 29 2014 15: 06
    +5
    While in Syria we are gaining a brilliant victory. God forbid that it be fixed and become final and irrevocable. This will mean the return of Russia to the Middle East as a major player and guarantor.
    1. Biolant
      Biolant April 29 2014 15: 21
      +4
      Russia returned there after the victory in Iran)))
  3. Comintern
    Comintern April 29 2014 15: 06
    +2
    I wonder how much time is left to exist geyropa)
    1. Stavros
      Stavros April 29 2014 15: 33
      +3
      At this pace, in 25 years France will not be possible from Pakistan.
  4. Validator
    Validator April 29 2014 15: 07
    +14
    Here's how they meet us there:
  5. cerbuk6155
    cerbuk6155 April 29 2014 15: 08
    +8
    SYRIA not only holds the blow, but also itself has launched an offensive in many directions. And RUSSIA Syria in any case will not be left to its own devices. And we will supply weapons regardless of all the screams of the United States. good drinks
  6. Sergg
    Sergg April 29 2014 15: 09
    +6
    Syria is extremely important for Russia. Bashar al-Assad, hold on, you are a real warrior and patriot of your country! But Russia should do its utmost to promote Assad’s power in Syria, including providing military assistance.
  7. rugor
    rugor April 29 2014 15: 12
    +4
    The worst times for Syria have passed. Now it remains to crush the large foci of gangster resistance and spend many years on the destruction of all riffraff and on the restoration of the national economy.

    Good luck to the Syrians in this difficult matter.
  8. chunga-changa
    chunga-changa April 29 2014 15: 13
    +2
    Great analysis.
  9. VNP1958PVN
    VNP1958PVN April 29 2014 15: 14
    +2
    Give the god of Syria a break while the Pentagon calculates Ukraine!
  10. mackonya
    mackonya April 29 2014 15: 18
    +2
    Yes, "State Department." I wanted to unfold the Libyan scenario, but it did not work out, and now no one controls the "anti-government troops", if you can call them that, now bandit formations have deployed across the country.
  11. The comment was deleted.
  12. KAVS
    KAVS April 29 2014 15: 27
    +4
    They trampled the country into the Stone Age, the masses of people died, everything was destroyed - for the sake of their rat plans!
    1. acute
      acute April 29 2014 17: 05
      +3
      As all the United States got. They spawned a generation in the world who hated them fiercely
  13. KOSMOS
    KOSMOS April 29 2014 15: 47
    +4
    Syria is in ruins, it hurts to watch! Patience and courage! There is so much more to do!
    1. maxxdesign
      maxxdesign April 29 2014 16: 26
      +1
      once Grozny was in ruins ... everyone rebuilt
  14. Baikal
    Baikal April 29 2014 15: 53
    +9
    The video is very impressive. All the best to the people of Syria ...

  15. Turk
    Turk April 29 2014 16: 02
    +3
    Quote: Validator
    Here's how they meet us there:

    And let the Americans and their henchmen smoke on the sidelines.
  16. The comment was deleted.
  17. mig31
    mig31 April 29 2014 16: 07
    +3
    It can only be worse for the enemies of Syria, for the people fighting for their freedom with imperialism led by the United States, there is the main task of preserving their ancient history ...
  18. Giant thought
    Giant thought April 29 2014 16: 08
    +4
    Good luck to Assad in the elections and triumphantly end the war against terrorist rebels.
  19. Turkir
    Turkir April 29 2014 18: 18
    +3
    Aleppo. Crac de Chevalier. As they came, they left. Cry.
  20. andj61
    andj61 April 29 2014 19: 11
    +4
    I hope that Assad will succeed. The Syrian armed forces have become much stronger and more professional than they were 2 years ago. Given the favorable changes that have taken place in the camp of the enemy's sponsors - the Saudis and Qatari, one can hope for a solution to the Syrian problems. Moreover, no one now has any illusions about what the opposition is.
  21. silberwolf88
    silberwolf88 April 29 2014 20: 07
    +1
    A war of this nature is very difficult to stop ... and in the current situation it does not make sense ... the slogan of disparate opposition groups - I fight because I fight ...
    Conflicts of this kind stop the complete destruction of the enemy ... harshly and without reckoning with anything ... BUT so far in Syria this is not an option.
  22. The comment was deleted.
  23. Ruswolf
    Ruswolf April 29 2014 20: 12
    +3
    I sincerely wish good luck to Assad!
    I think that today, in Syria, there is no more worthy candidate for the post of president of the country than Bashar Assad! A man who during his life became a symbol of his country! He did not doubt his people, and the people did not doubt him! I would like to believe that in the elections the people will give their hearts to him!
  24. A1L9E4K9S
    A1L9E4K9S April 29 2014 20: 14
    +2
    Quote: andj61
    I hope that Assad will succeed. The Syrian armed forces have become much stronger and more professional than they were 2 years ago.


    Any army in combat acquires combat experience, especially since the Syrian army is fighting for its homeland and it is obliged to defeat mercenaries fighting for money, but very value their lives.
  25. typhoon7
    typhoon7 April 29 2014 20: 51
    +2
    Bashar, the true leader of his people and his country, with his people in sorrows and joys. The wisdom of Bashar, patience and of course the speedy victory in the war. Syria pacification speedy, new hopes and prosperity.
  26. Turkir
    Turkir April 29 2014 21: 56
    +2
    Good luck to Assad. Standing man, they followed him, there were no traitors. That says a lot!
    The intervention failed.
  27. Pesnyadv
    Pesnyadv April 29 2014 23: 02
    +1
    Syria is a touchstone on which Russia is sharpening its weapon of Victory, which during the years of "perestroika" has managed to rust a little.
    Judging by this article and other publications, our weapons are still quite decent. soldier